The race for #1

I just took a look at the rankings and realised that today isn't just about taking #2, it's about closing to less than 2000 points on #1.

Federer has one event left between now and post-USO where he defends significantly more points than Djokovic. The Slams will be key, but he's so far ahead in the race from the day after the USO that it's becoming a serious possibility.

The mood will change of course if he loses today, but arguably it shouldn't; it's an overstatement to say its in his hands but with the Rome draw offering further encouragement it does look like he has a serious shot at it.

Fitness is the key.

But Fed apparently may not be playing in Rome.

Why would he withdraw?

Rome is his only potential prep for RG. Unless he's conceding RG already and choosing to focus on the grass season?

The other thought, not a pleasant one, is that he may be carrying an injury which he wants to nurse prior to RG.

I suspect he's just playing everything close to his chest. Federer doesn't need a big adaptation, he could go to RG and be tuned up after a match or two.

I think he'll be there on Rome, what I think he won't do is put himself through a war with Djokovic.

emancipator wrote:But Fed apparently may not be playing in Rome.

Where did you read/hear that?

Fed has an easy draw in Rome and if he's serious about getting back to #1, he should pick up the 360 points and play it as a 'practice' for RG.

HB - as much as it pains me to provide a link (because it gives oxygen to the moronic comments below the article as referenced in my post on another thread, the one about Rome draw I think) it's here :

http://www.tennistalk.com/en/news/20120512/Federer_to_make_late_decision_on_Rome

prostaff85 wrote:Fed has an easy draw in Rome and if he's serious about getting back to #1, he should pick up the 360 points and play it as a 'practice' for RG.

My thoughts entirely.

bogbrush wrote:

prostaff85 wrote:Fed has an easy draw in Rome and if he's serious about getting back to #1, he should pick up the 360 points and play it as a 'practice' for RG.

My thoughts entirely.

Hmmm excuses already in place if he doesn't win in Rome perhaps? Heck if Fed enters Rome he is in it to win it nothing more nothing less.

As for the race for No.1 I can't see it being a race at the moment to be honest. True Federer is going to gain points just now and only MAY gain some points in Rome but that isn't certain. At RG I would say it is more likely he will drop points at RG as he has to reach the final whilst Djokovic only needs to reach the semis. At Wimbledon that is a different matter as I'd expect Fed to recoup some points there but can't see those points swings amassing to around 2,000 points. Lets remember as well that in the latter half of the year Fed has a heck of a lot of points to defend.

Indeed CC - and as far as I'm concerned Federer has much to learn in the 'excuses discipline' (to give it an Olympic flavour )

Many might say that this past week has highlighted the shameful amatueurishness of Federer when it comes to excuses.

In fact there are at times when I don't think he's even at the races, so far is he below the standard of some top players, and such is his innocence.

Some players have the sharpness of mind to point to the complexities and vagaries of court surfaces as to the reason why they have been unable to adapt their game and make the progress expected of them to the business end of the tournament. But OAP Federer - who clearly can't move so well these days compared to the much younger guys - naively goes on court, plays on the surface as he finds it and pretty much waltzes (Raonic match excepted) his way through to the Final.

Like I said - he's got a lot to learn .......

Lol @ CC

#1- "excuses ready" Almost as good as "his game is in (permanent) transition"? Or he lost because he had a bye? Actually it's just obvious he's better off grabbing a 300 point gain and resting up.

#2- well since he has 90 to defend at Rome and Djokovic has 1000, I'd say there's a better than "MAY" chance he'll gain!! And the whole premise of my article is about #1 immediately after the USO so all those points to defend you refer to don't actually matter.

Not your best efforts.

Well I don't think Mr Tiriac has done Fed's #1 chances any harm...thats for sure.

We shall see bogbrush. The big key is RG definitely. Here is where Fed has to get to the final again which is not going to be easy whilst Djoko just has to better a semi spot which is very possible. Also on Rome it seems a grey area as there are rumours suggesting Fed may not play there sowe shall see. Certainly feel Fed WILL gain points at Wimbledon but thereafter does he not have a heck of a lot of points to defend?

You never had twins have you Craig?

Rome will not be significant to Federer's assault on RG.

Josiah Maiestas wrote:You never had twins have you Craig?

Rome will not be significant to Federer's assault on RG.

Well I think it will be as if we consider it will be the first true clay court Fed will have played on this season considering Madrid certainly does not play like conventional clay.

Exactly JM, if you look at Feds record at Rome it's actually not great at all - probably his worst across all the Masters.

No Craig, he doesn't. His tear began after the USO.

And Fed could gain 310 points on Nole if he watched him lose in the final having spent the whole event in his armchair.

At Roland Garros he will probably drop points(unless he gets that #2 and the luck of the 50/50 semi draw) but compared to the desert of points elsewhere it's not terminal. I think if he stays ok, and wins one Slam, he'd have it.

Oh if he wins a Slam he could do it most definitely - a big ask though. We shall see and I stand corrected as I thought Fed's run begun just after Wimbledon.

The big issue for Fed is RG itself, if he goes out early then his push for no.1 gets much tougher. Last year the Babolat balls were much faster, if they're slower this year it'll be harder for him. But that aside I have a feeling he may go early this year as their are so many strong players on slower conditions these days and he's alot more vulnerable when moved around.

Indeed, but of course should Djokovic suffer any serious slip up (which might mean just doing very well!) he can have it by default; Nadal had a very good time until after the USO and would find it hard to overhaul Fed if close after RG.

Thought it worth reminding ourselves of their Slam haul over the next three last year;

Djokovic: S, W, W = 4,720
Nadal: W, F, F = 4,400
Federer: F, Q, S = 2,280

Federer needs to get in there somewhere, but it shows how much Djokovic/Nadal would drop with a bad one.

Federer may also fancy improving on the 360 points he got from Rome, Canada & Cincinatti combined.

I was hoping that Murray would be in the picture, but he seems to have fizzled somewhat after AO2012 (not unexpected considering AO2011 and AO 2010). However, we shall see how he does at Rome.

i wonder if feds will choose to skip toronto and cincy to give himself maximum rest for the US open. But if he is that keen on gaining points he didn't have good tournaments there and has potential gains there too!

Dolgopolov or Raonic will win a slam before Murray does imo Craig.

Especially Raonic

Raonic...hmm quite possibly........Dolgopolov....sorry no.

Dolgo served at 30% when playing Del Potro had he gotten 20% more it would have been completely different and he could have played Berdych in the semi instead.

Has already reached 2 Quarter finals in slams so a semi final won't be far away for Dolgo.

LuvSports! wrote:i wonder if feds will choose to skip toronto and cincy to give himself maximum rest for the US open. But if he is that keen on gaining points he didn't have good tournaments there and has potential gains there too!

Could skip one for sure, but not both.

I have to be careful saying that though, Craig will say I'm getting excuses in early.

Very much agree with you wrt Dolgo, CC

I really like the guy a lot, good to watch and a refreshing let's get on with it no-nonsense approach. But ...... will turn 24 later this year and still just the two wins against 'big' names - Ferrer (and only at Nice) and Soderling at AO 11 (which might have been at the start of Sod's health troubles ...?)

well he beat tsonga does that count?

Luvsports - it sure does. Don't know how I missed that. Twice in fact. And one of them a biggy, five-set tussle at Wimbledon.

My mistake

But the Wimby win was 2010, and he hasn't really kicked on as much as he might have done since then ......

I'm pretty sure Fed will skip Halle if he gets to at least the semis in Paris.

He's also likely to miss the Rogers Cup if he makes a deep run at the OG, given it starts the week after.

emancipator - oh, I'm not really not so sure he would ever miss Halle, barring injury of course

Let's not forget it's only two years ago that he signed the "unique lifetime agreement" to play there ......

http://www.atpworldtour.com/News/Tennis/2010/06/23/Halle-Federer-Lifetime-Contract.aspx

tsonga actually won that wimbledon match in 5, but dolgo leads the head to head 3-2

i think it depends on how well he does at RG, if he goes deep he wont play if he doesnt he will i tink

My bad again, Luvsports - Yep, he sure did. I've just compounded my original error Not my best contribution !

And it was right here in Madrid that he's now edged ahead in the h2h, as you say.

Apologies Dolgo.

i dunno lags i just spoke to him in ukrainian over the phone and hes pretty peed what do you want me to say to calm him down one of his hair pieces just flew out of his head and shattered a window!

wow they changed the word peed i typed into peed hehe

ahahah they did it again p****d into peed

I hope it becomes a genuine three-way tussle for #1 throughout the rest of the season. With 3 slam seasons becoming de riguer it has been done and dusted by September (and a foregone conclusion before that), it would be nice to see a close contest.

Bit of history available for Federer or Nadal as no one has ever reclaimed year-end #1 twice I believe. Not to mention the all-time weeks that Federer can claim.

I'm not so sure why some posters expect Fed to go early or before the semis in RG. Fed hadn't dropped a single set on his way to the RG semi final last year. Then he dropped the first set in the entire tournament. That was less sets dropped than Nadal. I agree that Fed's progress to the latter stage of tournaments isn't always smooth in the last few years but I remember when Fed won RG in 2009, that was anything but smooth (bar the final)!

It pains me to say it, but it does appear that if Fed is to reach the final of a grand slam these days, he won't be dropping sets up until the semis. That's what happened last year @ RG and given how smooth his journey was to get there, I'd deffo be confident of him reaching the semis @ RG, of course, the draw will be a factor for him (unlike his main rivals).

The race for No.1 will certainly heat up if Djokovic loses Rome, which is a distinct possibility. Given how Fed is playing so confidently, I think all it takes for Fed to get to No.1 will be a good showing in Rome, Paris, Wimbledon, Olympics and Cinci. He can easily gain points in 4/5 of them. For Nadal, it's 2/5 and for Djokovic, 2/5. The odds are stacked more in Fed's favour than either of his main rivals.

With all the intensity of competition and weekly pressures right now at the top of the tree, I think it would be the most amazing turnaround if Federer did actually make it back to Number One - however briefly.

Personally I would put very little - if any - of my own money on it happening.

But that said, it would IMHO be a staggering achievement if it did .......

lags72 wrote:HB - as much as it pains me to provide a link (because it gives oxygen to the moronic comments below the article as referenced in my post on another thread, the one about Rome draw I think) it's here :

http://www.tennistalk.com/en/news/20120512/Federer_to_make_late_decision_on_Rome

Thank you. (Didn't bother with the comments.)

Wouldn't be surprised if he dumps Rome now, that was a tough final. I hope he doesn't, the ranking really is opening up now.

The draw @ Rome looks good for him, he might as well go in and try to gain the points for getting to the semis.

As I mentioned on another thread, if he beat Nole in the semi and won the thing he could be borderline #1. I must check that exactly.....

No, he'd fall short by 220 points.

My guess is he will play Rome unless he has a genuine injury he doesn't shake off by tomorrow.

Really BB? That would be amazing.

I got to say though, Rome, along with Monte Carlo and Shanghai (there is Stuttgart too) are the only Masters 1000 tournaments that Federer had never won. With Shanghai (and Stuttgart too), Fed has only the chance to participate 2/3 times so it's no surprise he hasn't won them. In the case of Rome and Monte Carlo, he's got to the final (more than once) @ both, but still not won them. Maybe it's because it's clay or perhaps because Nadal has won the latter 8 times and the former 5 times but either way, even as much as I want Fed to win, the chances of him winning two big clay court titles in a season, seems unlikely. He did once, in 2009 and Nadal was absent for RG and lost to Fed @ Madrid (even Nadal loses on clay sometimes, as we saw this week @ Madrid). So it's feasible he can win @ Rome and beat Djokovic, but I doubt both.

Super-unlikely unquestionably. Fun to speculate on though.

In terms of #2 seed for the FO, Federer will be ahead of Nadal by 325 pts on mondays rankings.

So Nadal needs to at least make the SF of Rome (360 pts) to get #2 back for the FO.

If Nadal makes the SF, Federer needs the 3rd round (90 pts).

If Nadal makes the final (600 points), Federer needs the semi-final (360 points)

If Nadal wins (1000 points), he is #2 seed for FO. Federer cannot catch up, even if he makes the final.