Race for the #1

(this is taken from a similar post I posted on another forum)

Rafa has now reclaimed #2 spot and is getting ever closer to Nole at #1.  So, the question is, who is likely to finish the year at #1?  Currently, Rafa has a lead of 2,240 points in the race but traditionally Nole tends to do better in the tail end of the season.  Should we expect Nole to make up 2,240 points by YE?

In the table below I show the points that Rafa and Nole won in the last few years from USO through YE.  I am starting with 2008 as for both of them that happened to be the first year where they started doing well in this part of the season.

---Year---	---Nadal---	---Djokovic---
2012	0	4,210
2011	1,790	2,560
2010	3,680	2,850
2009	1,860	3,480
2008	1,600	2,740

Based on this table, and assuming that Rafa and Nole play about "average" relative to their own history, Rafa would expect to win maybe around 1,800 points, while Nole maybe around 3,000.  Therefore, Nole would not come anywhere near to overhauling the 2,240 gap.

In addition, with Rafa looking better than ever on HC, and Nole showing signs of struggle, if anything, I am inclined to think that Rafa is more likely to outperform his historical average while Nole is more likely to underperform.  It is not yet entirely out of question that Nole may finish the year at #1 but he would now need some nice slices of luck - e.g., another early slam exit by Rafa at the USO.

The more interesting question then may be: how long can Nole hold Rafa off?  As it is, Rafa has a realistic (though I would still say less than even money) chance to reclaim the #1 spot right at the USO.  Assuming Nole does not entirely bomb at the USO, Rafa would have to win, and Nole would have to lose in SF or earlier.  While this may be relatively unlikely, it is not impossible, especially if Andy is drawn on Nole's side of the draw.

So, in summary I would say that Nole is likely to remain at #1 after the USO but is very unlikely to hold on to the #1 spot through YE.

Summerblues, I agree with your analysis. It really does require an early exit by Nadal at the US Open to leave the race anything more than a formality - and it is hard to see how that could happen.

Nadal does seem to be serious about the latter part of the season this year - or he's committed to Beijing and Basel in any case plus presumably Shanghai and the WTFs. I wonder how much Davis Cup ties in Sept and Nov have affected his performance post-USO in the past - now he is free of that commitment, maybe it can only help him gain points in the regular tournaments.

Thanks Summerblues, nice to see it clearly, historically with points! Indeed a very interesting US Open is upon us!

2240 is a lot and makes Rafa for the favourite. I had Djokovic as the favourite couple of weeks ago but impressive effort recently from Rafa.

Could even end up year end no #1 with a single slam and Djokovic or Murray with 2 slams but below.

If Nadal wins the US Open it will be all done.

Worth reminding ourselves how much Nadal was written off after his injury with people saying he would not be back into the top 2 again, would concentrate on clay only, Murray/Djokovic now clearly established as the big 2 etc. Short term thinking proven once again.

I did predict Nadal to finish in the top 2 this year a long time ago, but it wasn't very popular estimate at the time.

What I really want is for Rafa to finally win a WTF

^^ would certainly be interesting hearing the "clay court mug" critics explaining that one away

Rafa win against Federer indoor is the one thing he can't do against Federer. If he could do that it would complete the dominance.

Henman Bill wrote:Rafa win against Federer indoor is the one thing he can't do against Federer. If he could do that it would complete the dominance.

I expect if they played now he would have a good chance.  Cincy is a pretty Federer-friendly court and Federer was playing quite well, yet he lost.  If they play indoors on a random day, chances are Roger will not reproduce the form from Cincy, so I would expect a Rafa win.

I'm in Americas at the moment (Chile). Very quiet isn't it the forum at this time. Anyway, I am off to bed now.

summerblues wrote:

Henman Bill wrote:Rafa win against Federer indoor is the one thing he can't do against Federer. If he could do that it would complete the dominance.

I expect if they played now he would have a good chance.  Cincy is a pretty Federer-friendly court and Federer was playing quite well, yet he lost.  If they play indoors on a random day, chances are Roger will not reproduce the form from Cincy, so I would expect a Rafa win.

Yes, I have little doubt that "if they played now he (Rafa) would have a good chance". Especially now that Federer is 32.

And if he didn't pull off the win, we could just wait till Federer is 33 or 34 .......