Rome Masters - Day 6 thread (SF)

[lydian]

First topic message reminder :

So, Federer didnt hang about in giving Seppi his much earned nights rest.
Great matches tomorrow...arguably the best 4 men on clay this year in the semis.
The order of play tomorrow...

Court CENTRALE

Not Before 4:00 PM
[6] David Ferrer (ESP) v [2] Rafael Nadal (ESP)
Nadal is moving up the gears and Ferrer is already in overdrive. Some cracking shots today by Rafa shows his confidence is starting to rocket. I fully expect Ferrer to be overtaken 6-4, 6-3.

Not Before 8:00 PM
[1] Novak Djokovic (SRB) v [3] Roger Federer (SUI)
Their first meet up since that epic USO SF last year...will it come down to 1-2 shots again?
Well both men are showing great form...but I expect the Swiss to roll over Novak after the maestro sprints out of the blocks early on. Djokovic doesnt like the ball coming at him so early and I think more than Nadal is vulnerable to being rushed. I'm expecting Federer to tear through the first set catching Novak cold. Novak wakes up and stretches the 2nd to a TB which Federer edges...6-3, 7-6 (if Novak can sneak the 2nd then I think he'll win the 3rd fairly routinely 6-3 but I'm firmly of the view that Fed will win, probability 80%).

Cant wait!!!

[Guest]

This is gonna be a pure grind; Ferrer and Nadal, the two biggest grinders on tour. I'll try to watch bt it'll probably suck the life out of me.

[Jahu]

Ferrer hitting the ball clean and his serve seems spot on for the moment.

[Henman Bill]

Interesting the bookies odds are almost neck and neck for Federer v Djokovic. I would have thought 60/40 in favour of Djokovic but no so, it is more like 52/48, with some bookies having nothing between them. (Boylesports has both at 9/10).

Bet 365
Djokovic 17/20
Federer 19/20

Ladbrokes
Djokovic 4/5
Federer 1/1

William Hill
Djokovic 8/11
Federer 1/1

Betfair
Djokovic 17/20
Federer 21/20

I'd say Djokovic is good value at 17/20

Could easily believe any result in this match. Wouldn't surprise me in the slightest if Federer wins in 1 hour in 2 easy sets. However I predict:

Djokovic 2 Federer 1

[Henman Bill]

You can get 4/1 on Federer to win the tournament. Well that implies that Federer has a 20% chance of winning the tournament, implying 35-40% chance of beating Nadal in a potential final. Nearer 40% or slightly above when we factor in the bookies profit margin. Generous? I'm tempted to back against Federer here. Thoughts?

[Henman Bill]

Is the Nadal - Ferrer match on Sky's red button - didn't see it when looking through the Sky channels some minutes ago....

[Guest]

This is why Ferrer will never be a threat to the top guys. 5 break points, four errors.

[reckoner]

You can get 4/1 on Federer to win the tournament. Well that implies that Federer has a 20% chance of winning the tournament, implying 35-40% chance of beating Nadal in a potential final. Nearer 40% or slightly above when we factor in the bookies profit margin. Generous? I'm tempted to back against Federer here. Thoughts?

might be worth a tenner but let's face it this tournament is Nadal's to lose.

[Guest]

Go away, you and your obsessive gambling.

[reckoner]

bit harsh...

[Guest]

6 break points gone

[Guest]

Man Ferrer got shafted on two calls in this game.

[Guest]

7 BPs

[Josiah Maiestas]

Lahyani is an Uncle Toni agent..

[reckoner]

Oh dear 20 minutes for 2 games... yaaaaaaawn

[Guest]

You just know this will be a close match with Ferrer having a million BP's but not coverting any and then Rafa will win.

[Guest]

Nadal playing so far back, looks like he's in the crowd

[Guest]

Federer was 5-0 up after 12 minutes against Seppi. The match lasted 54 minutes in total 6-1 6-2. The time includes all the time between games and sets. But, extended time between points, longish rallies etc is how Nadal and Ferrer play their matches (same for Djoko and Del Potro).

[Jahu]

Nadal broken 1:3

[Henman Bill]

Go away, you and your obsessive gambling.

Telling someone to go away because they are talking about something you have no personal interest in is extremely narrow minded. Not replying to the comment is sufficient. 2 comments does not make an obsession either, I am not obsessed and can't even remember the last bet I put on tennis. You have made at least 3 comments about break points, so maybe you are obsessed about that??

Most ridiculous post of the day by a mile.

[Guest]

Ferrer DF's to give the break back

Gambling is not an interest; it's a harmful vice and you're always bringing up stubid bets and odds.

[Jahu]

What a slug fest.

[Guest]

Wow awesome FH dtl from Rafa

[lydian]

I have to say this is poor from Rafa today so far...his timing is really off and it's affecting just about every shot in his repertoire. Lack of depth, mid court balls, serve lacking potency, missing shots wide and long...this isnt great, he's making Ferrer look good!

[Henman Bill]

Ferrer DF's to give the break back

Gambling is not an interest; it's a harmful vice and you're always bringing up stubid bets and odds.

Sigh - that's just your opinion. You could have replied and said that to begin with. Just saying go away is unhelpful. Being nasty with people who hold different opinions/interests to you makes you inherently unpleasant if not even dangerous. If you don't want anyone to be allowed to post anything that you don't personally have an interest in, that is called a blog. This is called a forum.

Also, "always" is innaccurate. It's no more than occassional that I post about gambling.

Anyway, it's about how you use it. I rarely bet over a tenner, infact rarely bet at all, keep track of my bets, would quit if I was losing more than winning, and just use it as a bit of fun, e.g. a laugh with your mates while watching if I have £2 on first goal scorer. The fact that other people lost control of it and have it damage their lives doesn't mean I shouldn't do it anymore than someone using champagne to celebrate a birthday should stop because elsewhere an alcoholic husband is causing grief for his wife.

If you can't accept any of this we should agree to disagree.

[lydian]

Perfect example..that easy FH winner there at 30-0 sails long...get a grip man!

[Guest]

Ferrer DF's to give the break back

Gambling is not an interest; it's a harmful vice and you're always bringing up stubid bets and odds.

Sigh - that's just your opinion. You could have replied and said that to begin with. Just saying go away is unhelpful. Being nasty with people who hold different opinions/interests to you makes you inherently unpleasant if not even dangerous. If you don't want anyone to be allowed to post anything that you don't personally have an interest in, that is called a blog. This is called a forum.

Also, "always" is innaccurate. It's no more than occassional that I post about gambling.

Anyway, it's about how you use it. I rarely bet over a tenner, infact rarely bet at all, keep track of my bets, would quit if I was losing more than winning, and just use it as a bit of fun, e.g. a laugh with your mates while watching if I have £2 on first goal scorer. The fact that other people lost control of it and have it damage their lives doesn't mean I shouldn't do it anymore than someone using champagne to celebrate a birthday should stop because elsewhere an alcoholic husband is causing grief for his wife.

If you can't accept any of this we should agree to disagree.

Me thinks he doth protest too much.

There is help out there for these kinds of problems.



emancipator

[Guest]

Just kidding buddy, winding you up.

[Guest]

Rafa's been kind of patchy.

He hit some great FH winners but has also missed quite a few routine shots.

Ferrer should have clinched this set by now. 1 out 10 bp's is abysmal.

[reckoner]

This thread has taken a very odd turn. Live and let live - I would have thought your inter-galactic travels would have taught you that!

[lydian]

This has got to be the worst I've seen him play all year...even regulation balls are going in the net now. What a difference a day makes, 24 little hours....

[Guest]

Gambling is not good for the minions, it's reduces the cosmic energy.

Behind every gambler lurks the shadow of BOO.



emancipator

[lydian]

Might be waking up here at 4-5 as the situation begins to dawn on him...

[lydian]

Geez..is Nadal capable of hitting a ball beyond the service line today???
Might help if he wasn't 87 yards behind the baseline...what's with the guy today?

[Guest]

I agree he's standing too far back and serving up lots of short balls. If he plays like this against Novak he'll get eaten alive.

[lydian]

Absolutely emancipator...that was his main problem last year too...feeding Novak mid courts gimme's all the time.
He's lacking complete feel today...just plain weird.
Just a bad day at the office me thinks...he's going to have to scrape this one out and wait for Ferret to choke if the finishing line is in sight.

[reckoner]

Playing possum... he's just biding his time.

[Guest]

The wind probably isnt helping.

[Guest]

When I am having a bad at the office, I normally go for a massage.

[Guest]

You feel this is a must win TB for Ferrer given all the missed opportunities

[lydian]

Yep emanc....good point.
If Nadal wins this set it'll be the best escaping act since Andy Dufresne...

[Guest]

Great FH from Nadal, steeping back and hitting a clean winner inside out

[reckoner]

Cue a collapse from Ferrer...

[reckoner]

Ferrer's like Wile Coyote running off the cliff and then making the mistake of looking down...

[Henman Bill]

Just kidding buddy, winding you up.

"Go away" is your idea of a wind up? Well, OK then. So as it was a wind up I guess you don't actually mind gambling.

[Guest]

Surprising BH error from Rafa

[lydian]

6-5 and Rafa hits the shortest BHs all set...

[Guest]

Just kidding buddy, winding you up.

"Go away" is your idea of a wind up? Well, OK then. So as it was a wind up I guess you don't actually mind gambling.

I don't like gambling but each to their own. If you wanna do it that's up to you.

[Guest]

that was a predictable ending wasn't it

[lydian]

How the heck did Nadal win that set on such poor form...Ferret needs shooting for losing that set, he'll never have a better chance to win a set against Rafa than that.

[reckoner]

Just kidding buddy, winding you up.

"Go away" is your idea of a wind up? Well, OK then. So as it was a wind up I guess you don't actually mind gambling.

I don't like gambling but each to their own. If you wanna do it that's up to you.

emancipatoooor

you have learned to accept others for what they are...

I will consider shortlisting you as a potential disciple of the mighty reckoner.

wooooooo

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