Lots to win for both, but a lot to lose as well.

Ok,we all know the upside for each player but let's in this thread look at the downside for each; what do they have to lose? This may even point to who will be feeling the more pressure.

Djokovic

Last year he'd have won this easily; faster courts, fast balls, ownership of Nadal, unbeaten all year. He must curse Federer forever for denying him what would have been a Calendar Slam. Now it's slower, Nadal has beaten him recently and he's taken some other defeats too.
Some are looking at his match as a test of whether Djokovic 2011 was the best of him. The mutterings have grown as defeats accumulated and the iron grip on the #1 position is slowly peeled away. Certainly he's not looked that great in this event, even in beating Federer.

This may also be a once in a lifetime to do something nobody else since Laver could. If he fails he must start all over again, and given the breaks needed to gather three in a row that won't be easy. This chance may never come again.

Nadal

He's on peak form, in his prime, on his personal property, in slow conditions. Everything is stacked for him.

But he's playing the guy who beat him the last three Slam finals. If he loses this match he loses it all. He'll find his legacy being questioned - maybe he didn't have any really great clay specialist to beat, it would be argued. Hell, maybe there'll even be a weak era on clay theory put about?
He'll also be damned as second to Djokovic; all the arguments used to promote him over Federer will fly back, double strength - to demote him. Never mind a h2h lead driven by clay, try lost all four Slams in a row to one guy!


So both have great things to reach for but there's also scary downsides. We fans of either will always play those down but do not be deceived; both men have something very big to lose tomorrow.

My verdict: Nadal has the most on the line, by far.

I completely agree with all of the above apart from one thing. I believe that losing the semi last year actually propelled him to his later success by keeping it real and maintaining the hunger. I'm just saying that if Nole had won the French last year, who's to say that he would've still gone on to win Wimby, that's all. Who knows.

Anyway, one thing is for sure the final is not up for grabs nor is it there for the taking. Neither of the players will sail through, that's for sure because of the ensuing mental battle you described. there's just so much on the line for both these guys that there isn't a hint of possibility either will hold anything back. Regardless of the outcome, for the lack of a better, more original expression, I expect to see two genuine gladiators battling to win their freedom.

For me personally, this is the single most anticipated moment in tennis ever and I know I won't be the only person planning the day around the match, but rather member of the majority in that respect. Skill, emotions, reactions, expressions, heart, skill, body language, the crowd I want to savor it all. It simply can't start soon enough, cheers!

Nadal has to win it, Djokovic doesn't have to.

Whatever happens today this is not a winner takes all match. Chances are they will have to play a few more times in their careers. We could even be anticipating the same match up this time next year... and the next... and the next. I feel tired just thinking about it.

Nadal doesn't win in 2012, he'll most likely have another chance, nothing is a certainty, but it's far more likely he'll gain another French Open final, than Djokovic will be playing for a fourth consecutive major singles title.

Agreed that both have enough to lose that they'll give it all, not to lose tomorrow's final - good enough reason to hope for a "ripper" of a match.

Nadal in 4 sets is my pick.

hawkeye wrote:... Chances are they will have to play a few more times in their careers. We could even be anticipating the same match up this time next year...

Considering what happened in Australia, there must be a good chance they will still be playing this match this time next year ...

Nore Staat wrote:Nadal has to win it, Djokovic doesn't have to.

Agree, if Nadal got beaten, then a new era of RG surely begins. All kings will have gone and clay ones without exception

Nore Staat wrote:

hawkeye wrote:... Chances are they will have to play a few more times in their careers. We could even be anticipating the same match up this time next year...

Considering what happened in Australia, there must be a good chance they will still be playing this match this time next year ...

Ha ha! I do enjoy some of your comments.

paulcz wrote:

Nore Staat wrote:Nadal has to win it, Djokovic doesn't have to.

Agree, if Nadal got beaten, then a new era of RG surely begins. All kings will have gone and clay ones without exception

So you think if Djokovic wins this match he is the new clay king?! Your not Novak's mum are you?

Nice article. The only comment I dispute is: "This may also be a once in a lifetime to do something nobody else could." I do not see what Novak will do that nobody else had done. There is a quiet and reserved gentleman with red hair who lives a couple of miles from my home; he achieved that feat twice, all 4 in a calendar year, and did it again.

I reckon Novak has less to lose than Rafa. If a full tennis career goes for 10km, Novak is at 4km, Rafa at 7km, and Roger at 9.5km. I think Novak will still be the man to beat in the other three slams.

Leff wrote:Nice article. The only comment I dispute is: "This may also be a once in a lifetime to do something nobody else could." I do not see what Novak will do that nobody else had done. There is a quiet and reserved gentleman with red hair who lives a couple of miles from my home; he achieved that feat twice, all 4 in a calendar year, and did it again.

indeed he did! Article amended.

hawkeye wrote:

paulcz wrote:

Nore Staat wrote:Nadal has to win it, Djokovic doesn't have to.

Agree, if Nadal got beaten, then a new era of RG surely begins. All kings will have gone and clay ones without exception

So you think if Djokovic wins this match he is the new clay king?! Your not Novak's mum are you?

Better to read and think and only then to write anything
You are desperately focused on Nole´s family, aren´t you?

Nadal has more to lose by some distance.

A loss here and his confidence against Djokovic will drop sharply.

MC and Rome will be forgotten as mere blips. Djokovic will once again become the undisputed king.

Furthermore, Rafa will lose 800 ranking points. That would put Roger in poll position for the number two seeding at the USO.



emancipator

I think Novak is in the better position, if he wins its the greatest achievement in the sport if he loses he was supposed to against the best clay court player ever. If Rafa wins its hardly a surprise but if he loses that opens a huge can of worms.

To sum up, a loss is bigger for Nadal than a win would be

I agree that Rafa has more to lose. Given the prior history here, and their clay court matches over the last two seasons, Rafa's loss means rethinking of the clay court pecking order while Novak's loss just confirms it. Also, losing 4 slam finals in a row to the same player may give you a good claim for #2 in the world (even if the rankings would put you at #3) but as sure as can be you have no claim for #1.

However, I also think that Novak has far more to gain. RG #7 for Rafa is certainly impressive but is it that much more impressive than #6? Also, he may have a chance to get there anyway. On the other hand, one has to think that for Novak this is likely "now or never".

In summary, yes, the downside is worse for Rafa, however, the difference between a win and a loss is huge for both, and maybe bigger for Novak, so he may still have more pressure.

Seems patently clear Rafa has the most to lose. Fed in many ways provides the template: once the defeats start on your strongest surface (unless you're injured), the rest of your performances at other slams start to unravel either to the guy that dethroned you or other players (first Nadal, then Delpo and Djokovic). So Nadal isn't just going for a historic 7th, he's in some ways making sure he's stays in contention in catching Fed's overall slam haul but will continue to win further slams.

It's seems clear that while Djokovic can lose tomorrow, we still know he can win at the other 3 slams but with Nadal, having lost those 3 directly to Djokovic, there's no way we can see him mount a come back once he's lost his slam bastion. I dear not say it's over for Nadal, no doubt he may win more slams, but he certainly won't dominate.

Despite Novak's streak I think it is a bigger match for Nadal. This is final domain, lets remember Djokovic has won the last three slams. He is the one defending 2000 points. Now streaks and nice records aside, Nadal has virtually no way of regaining the number for a year or so if he loses RG. I personally think nobody ever expected Djokovic to have a chance at tying laver, if he does it will be huge and monumental. I mean I can't underestimate the legacy building nature of such a win. But most importantly he already beat FEd who was chasing the top two down, gained points on his semi berth last year and has gone deeper than he ever has before. Nadal is 6 time champion it will be much more damaging points wise and psychologically if he loses.

GRAND SLAM was originally designated for winner of all 4 slams in the SAME calendar year. There are only 2 players that ever achieved this - Budge once and Laver twice.

If we extend this to players winning 4 consecutive majors, then we have 5 players including Laver (only Laver achieving this in the open era).

If we extend this term further to career grand slam, there are many.

Even if Novak wins this, he will not have achieved the same as Laver.

Fed is 30 now. He may win one more major. So, he will finish career with 16 or 17 majors.

Nadal will have 11 if he wins tomorrow. He is 26, only a year older than Djoko. It is possible for him to catch Sampras' 14, but Fed's 16 is a longer stretch. To match Fed's 14, Rafa has to win 10 or 11 RGs. It's frightening thought, but he can bag 10 RGs.

Djoko has been the hottest player in the past year or two. He has 5 majors. I doubt he will bag any more than another 5 majors. So, the best case scenario for him for him is 10 or 11, if you have more faith in his endurance. He has a shot at achieving a non-calendar year grand slam tomorrow, a special achievement, no doubt.

If you are a Fed fan, his 16 majors feat is under no threat in the near future.

Leff, agree. It would be a great achievement, but people would not give it quite the same respect as the calendar slam - official designation notwithstanding. Somewhat similar to how Tiger's four-in-a-row were never quite viewed as being the equal of a possible calendar year equivalent.