Warren Gatland and Wales' future.

Warren Gatland was appointed coach of Wales on 1 December 2007. His most successful tenure as a coach was with Wasps. When he joined London Wasps in 2002 in a coaching position before taking over as Director of Rugby, He took the team from the bottom of the English championship to safety in his first few months. After this success he went on to lead Wasps to three consecutive Zurich (Aviva) Premiership titles (2003, 2004 and 2005) and the Heineken Cup in 2004.

His tenure as the Head coach of Ireland was a tough one, taking over an Irish team who had struggled to win more often than not during the preceding Six Nations. His most famous victory came against France on 19 March 2000 in Paris for the first time since 1972, but a disappointing RWC exit for Ireland was the major reason for his sacking in 2000.

When you look at the current Welsh team made up of mostly youngsters who debuted during his tenure it is clear that he knows how to build a squad. The reality is amongst most Welsh fans I have come across is that this is by far the best squad and best opportunity to progress they have had for years.

When you look at the successes of Gatland over the last two years against NH opposition and a win rate of 71% then it becomes clear that Wales have been the most successful team in the NH environment.

However, looking at those figures, although Wales have bit some daylight behind them there are 5 teams on par or ahead of them in the race to the number one ranking.

In the last two years Wales has won 2/4 against England, 1/3 against France, 0/1 against SA and 0/5 against Australia.

So we can safely assume that they are at least on par with England if not slightly ahead, France although beatable are slightly ahead, considering the number of close losses against SA and OZ, perhaps not there yet.

So something needs to change. There is a saying that says doing the same thing over and over and expecting a different result is not wise. But the question is what have they been doing repeatedly getting the same outcome?

Or better question, what has changed that has not allowed them to get a win over OZ or SA.

Luck?

You could possibly say they were unlucky to lose against SA in the RWC, you could argue that the penalty they got against them vs Australia at the rolling maul was unlucky.

But then it is also said, you make your own luck.

Priestland?

It is true that his RWC form has gone and even during the Six nations he didn’t seem to have the same control as he did then. The Australian series have shown his deficiencies more in the sense that he didn’t always control territory or wasn’t creating opportunities for a very good Welsh backline.
But then it could also be argued that Priestland is just tired, it has been a long season, he has had little rest and form does fluctuate.

Gatland?

Ok, let me first of all say, I am aware that he wasn’t the coach during the tour of Australia due to his injuries, however he was present and sure as there will be a sunrise tomorrow, he wasn’t twiddling his thumbs during team meetings.

That brings me to playing devil’s advocate.

There are many international coaches around the world who are class but questionably have the ability to sustain an innovative methodology for a long run with the same team.

In fact the only I can think of is Graham Henry. His forward thinking and the innovations of the All Blacks over his 8 years of coaching have shown that they were always one step ahead of any other coach and team. But then you could also argue that the talent at his disposal was second to none. It does however not detract from the methodology of their game plan.

So do you think Gatland can take this talented welsh team to the next level?

His success rate during his 5 years with wales has been 60 test matches, 31 wins, 28 losses and 1 draw and even though the last two years with the addition of some young seriously talented players have been more successful, Wales are still in search for that elusive win over one of the three top SH nations. I have no doubt that the win will eventually come. But to make the next leap forward, Wales need to do what England did in 2000, dominate the SH.

I know this is controversial, but think about it, is it not time to consider the question?

Did Graham henry really over achieve with Wales? No 6N title, a QF in the RWC in fairness probably due to them being the hosts and getting an easy pool.

His tenure at the Lions was also pretty poor. Far worse than SCW in 05 IMO as unlike SCW he had genuine world class talent on his door... it was probably the most talented side the Lions have had in 40 years.

Henry had Carter and McCaw for the best years of their career.. even PDV would have had a win ratio of +80% with these guys and the others.

I would certainly credit Jake White and SCW in higher esteem then Henry... why because they turned around teams from way way below the top standard and turned them into world beaters. Henry never such issues. When he did with Wales & the Lions... he struggled.

Anyhow, personally I'm not sure Gatland can take this Wales side to another level... I think they're playing as good as they can do. Some of their guys are yet to peak so they will improve but ENG, AUS, SA & NZ all are now filled with youngsters also and will only get better.

Wales have been the top team in Europe during his tenure... 2GS in 5 years. FRA, IRE & ENG all have the other 6N titles... yet he has by far the worst record vs. 3N sides... even worse than Robinson's Scotland. Perhaps its a case that his tactics/strategy is good enough vs. medium opposition but never good enough vs. the best.

If you look at Wasps also, they've paid for the success. Near bankrupt due to past costs.. they spent well beyond their means and were lucky not to be relegated from the Premiership.

I think maybe its time for a New coaching set up.
Get rid of Howley ect (keep Edwards) and bring in some world class coaches whoever they may be to try and get this team to the next level while they are still young. I dont know whether replacing Gatland would be good or not but i think the rest should go.

So who would be the kind of coach out there that could take wales to the next level? Based on the style of play that wales play as kids, club and national level? Presumably there's a link between them.

biltongbek wrote:When you look at the successes of Gatland over the last two years against NH opposition and a win rate of 71% then it becomes clear that Wales have been the most successful team in the NH environment.

Don't want to get into a peeing competition but assuming you are talking about just the six nations teams when you talk about NH opposition England have a success rate of 73% over the last 2 years scoring more tries and with a higher points difference. Just saying.

no point changing coach mind if there isn't anyone better out there.

I myself reckon teams should throw buckets of cash to prise Rassie Erasmus away from the boks technical group. He is a great strategist and for me the best coach in the business. He's too loyal though to the boks.. well at least for now. Everyone has their price mind.

I don't see anyone else of note available or not in a top coaching position which Wales might appeal to. Mallett wouldn't be interested.

Toadfish wrote:

biltongbek wrote:When you look at the successes of Gatland over the last two years against NH opposition and a win rate of 71% then it becomes clear that Wales have been the most successful team in the NH environment.

Don't want to get into a peeing competition but assuming you are talking about just the six nations teams when you talk about NH opposition England have a success rate of 73% over the last 2 years scoring more tries and with a higher points difference. Just saying.

I stand corrected.

Ok look at it this way.. since his tenure began (08 6N) the overall points won in the 6N have been

Wales 36
England & France 33
Ireland 31
Scotland 8

So whilst it suggests there is no team way out in front. Wales have been the best side over the last 5 years and given they have more titles then any other BB is correct is suggesting that Wales has been the best side in Europe generally speaking.

I'm with you fa0019, no point changing coaches because you think the grass is greener. Wales are tracking well and, for me, exceeded my expectations in oz. I know the welsh were dissapointed, but there was enough there to show they're a team worth taking seriously, or else they'll bite ya.

Would a bok coach suit the welsh game? I personally reckon foriegn coaches upset a teams long term game, there's just too much flip flopping, boom and bust, no long term legacy in style.

Sean Holley lol

I think Rassie would improve any side in the world.

I have never been really comfortable with Howley in the set up (or McBryde) for that instant.

I think we need to keep gats and Edwards but I wouldn't be sorry if we replaced the other two, well depends who with of course.

How on earth can we even contemplate this current coaching team's future?!?! This is what frustrates the hell out of me with Welsh supporters. We want everything and we want it now!

Well guess what, there are 8 or so other nations working to the same goal to a similar level...it's not easy!! These guys have help build a squad that can compete with anyone from game to game...not just 'on our day'.

Australia, missing some guys were still a world class outfit (Berrick Barnes was as good as he ever has been) and some posters here have previously called them average?!!

For us to be anywhere near the top 4 of the world is huge for our tiny, proud and passionate nation.

These guys are as good as it gets (trust me, I've seen first hand) and I'm sure that there is a plan in place to TRY and dominate as much as possible.

Questioning their future is ridiculous...

MonkeyOwain, I am South African and think it is a fair question to contemplate whether the current coaching staff can take Wales up to the next level.

Don't see how it is ridiculous, every other nation asks those questions from their coaches.

Currently in SA there is huge debate on whether Heienek Meyer will just provide us another period of 3rd best, or will he be able to take us to number 1.

so you're not worried that whilst Wales have been the best team in Europe in the last 5 years in the 6N overall... yet has the worst record (ex. Italy) of all six nations sides vs. the 3N teams?

Andy Robinson with Scotland has taken 3 wins out of 6 vs. 3N sides (and only the recent victory came after AUS fielded half a side of 1st team/half a side of 2nd team... the others were full strength sides).

Gatland has 1 victory in 20 odd matches. Perhaps his strategy works vs. lesser sides but when he faces the best he doesn't have an idea on how to combat their strengths.

MonkeyOwain12 wrote:Questioning their future is ridiculous...

No it's not. If you don't question these things you'll never improve. Would you object to Joe Schmidt taking the reins if he was available? Do you really think Rob Howley is the best backs coach in the world?

Biltong, FA, I realise what you're saying, honestly I do.

But we've looked elsewhere to soon before...We do have a world class 22...we can and do compete with everybody...I only think that we've lacked experience in the final 5 in some games and possibly some tactical nous at times too.

The big 3 have been doing thais for years, we're so so close to being true greats...but...it's tough...there are (as Biltong says re SA) other teams on the cusp too...

Look how far we've come along...I've been so lucky to see this in my lifetime...

And as for the Scottish, they win games against Aussie in the wet, dismal wind and cold with defence and kicks...We possibly should've beaten them in the sun, dry and warmer climate...unheard of...

I'd certainly question Schmidt, especially in terms of taking over...


but as an addition...

I don't think Joe Schmidt would go for that...

Do you honestly think we're offering enough in attack, Owain?

Oh neither do I, but I wouldn't want to disrupt the coaching team at all right now...

Tough one, I think we're offering plenty in what are deemed as the right areas...Have a look at North's try to game rartio for Wales compared to the turks for example.
There were times where we attacked from deep and did so well, but there is a clear and coherent strategy to our gameplan at the moment...therefore I think we can very much assume that our gameplan is in it's infancy moving forward to 2015...

I'd personally like us to 'play' a little more, but I can certainly see what we're trying to do and more importantly why...

biltongbek wrote:Currently in SA there is huge debate on whether Heienek Meyer will just provide us another period of 3rd best, or will he be able to take us to number 1.

Sorry for the derail. SA's first steps out with Meyer in charge against England were pretty good BB. A few holes in your defense maybe for the likes of Youngs/Flood/Care to slip through but the boks physicality was un-paralleled going through the phases - i'd say even stronger then the ABs & wallabies games. It's not often i'm wincing for 80 minutes straight!

Meyer was a gent for the whole series and took a team out on the field that gave it 100%. There's always places to refine, but as MOnkey said about Wales, you can't look to the future too the point that people write him off now. I find that a little self defeating, and has been one of my main gripes about the RFU listening to the media here in England, trying to stir sensationalism using speculation to give themselves 'headlines' on slow news days.

MonkeyOwain12 wrote:Our gameplan is in it's infancy moving forward to 2015...

Gatland's been in charge since the 20008. Why is it taking him so long? Or to put it another way, if we really wanted to beat the Wallabies recently, don't you think the coaching team would have thrown everything they had at them? That suggests to me that they have nothing up their collective sleeve.

AlastairW wrote:

biltongbek wrote:Currently in SA there is huge debate on whether Heienek Meyer will just provide us another period of 3rd best, or will he be able to take us to number 1.

Sorry for the derail. SA's first steps out with Meyer in charge against England were pretty good BB. A few holes in your defense maybe for the likes of Youngs/Flood/Care to slip through but the boks physicality was un-paralleled going through the phases - i'd say even stronger then the ABs & wallabies games. It's not often i'm wincing for 80 minutes straight!

Meyer was a gent for the whole series and took a team out on the field that gave it 100%. There's always places to refine, but as MOnkey said about Wales, you can't look to the future too the point that people write him off now. I find that a little self defeating, and has been one of my main gripes about the RFU listening to the media here in England, trying to stir sensationalism using speculation to give themselves 'headlines' on slow news days.

Alastair I guess it depends on circumstances, during the PDV tenure, no one was allowed to question or criticise, you could immediately see when Meyer took over that the channels of media and the like now had free go at the situation again, hence questions have been asked about the "failings of the third test, the selection of certain players and his gameplan.

I personally tihnk it is the way it should be, if we want to remain an also ran, then fine leave the status quo as it is, if we managed to remain in the top three during PDV's tenure on pure depth in talent, I am sure we can do the same under just about any coach, however the time to stand back and admire the All Blacks from behind the posts are over, now is the time to fight for number one.

And to do that the deficiencies in Meyer must be questioned, analysed and commented on.

He took the job with the promise SA will be number one again, hence no stoen must be unturned, no option ignored.

I continue to have faith in Gatland and his staff and at this point I firmly believe that they are capable of taking Wales onwards and upwards. As far as I recall there was not a time within the last few decades before Gatland that Wales were this consistently dangerous and competitive with the top sides in the world.

The SH losing streak will stand against Gats just as it has stood against the vast majority of Welsh coaches. And yet there has rarely been a game under Gatland that Wales have not managed to put a top three nation severely through its paces.

That's not to say that we should settle for the gallant losers tag. But there was a distinct time, throughout the nineties spanning to the early noughties, when Wales were not even competing with the SH. Remember the 96-13 drubbing in SA? Or the inevitable cricket score after cricket score against the All Blacks? Those days look to be long gone. I think it's fair to say that there have been occasions the SH sides have escaped by the skin of their teeth against us. Too often we've snatched defeat from the jaws of victory. It's definitely a case of coulda/shoulda/woulda but that's better than what preceded it.

There's also 6N's success to take into account, not to mention the higher standard of inner squad competition and youthful depth which is being processed through to the national squad. Gatland will have his detractors, some justified, others very harsh and overly hysterical. But I think he has gone a long way in aiding the Welsh resurrection as a force in the game and has earned our patience and support.

Ridiculous suggestion to replace the coach who has brought 2 slams in 4 years..to what end and with whom? And this 'elusive win' business is also inaccurate; Wales have beaten Aus twice at home and I expect them to do so again in the AIs.

mowgli wrote:Ridiculous suggestion to replace the coach who has brought 2 slams in 4 years..to what end and with whom? And this 'elusive win' business is also inaccurate; Wales have beaten Aus twice at home and I expect them to do so again in the AIs.

Maybe,just maybe Warren Gatland as taken Wales as far as he can. Maybe he as done the ground work, Wales just need a coach that take them to that next step.

Who that coach will be? I have no idea to be honest.

I wonder.

I do think his injury and Howley's howler have had a disproportionate affect on Welsh fortunes.

My concern is more about the WRU allowing Gatland to take a year out for the Lions and i still think Gatland may not get the job after this summer.
We simply cannot hand this team over to howley to accomodate Gatland's ambitions 2 years before an RWC that we clearly have a real chance of doing well in.

After the events of the our it has raised doubts in my mind as to whether Howley has what it takes to keep us going in the right direction if Gatland does get the Lions job.

It would be a brave call to dump a Grand Slam winning head coach. The only way I can see Gatland leaving before the next WC is if NZ, at some point, want to replace Hansen. I would like to see new backs coach though; it will be interesting to see what a certain Mr.Williams can do in a coaching capacity after he's finished playing in Japan.

Knowsit17 wrote:I continue to have faith in Gatland and his staff and at this point I firmly believe that they are capable of taking Wales onwards and upwards. As far as I recall there was not a time within the last few decades before Gatland that Wales were this consistently dangerous and competitive with the top sides in the world.

There was a distinct time, throughout the nineties spanning to the early noughties, when Wales were not even competing with the SH. Remember the 96-13 drubbing in SA? Or the inevitable cricket score after cricket score against the All Blacks? Those days look to be long gone. I think it's fair to say that there have been occasions the SH sides have escaped by the skin of their teeth against us.

No offence, Knowsit, but just because Gatland's done better than (some of) his predecessors doesn't mean he's the ideal coach for us and should be stuck with. That would be like me having a Mondeo and saying it's the best car around because it's better than the Datsun Sunny I used to have.

Also, it's wrong to suggest that Gatland is unique among recent Welsh coaches in running the southern-hemisphere sides close. We'd have beaten the Wallabies in Australia under Gareth Jenkins if it hadn't been for Gareth Cooper; we lost by a point to the All Blacks under Mike Ruddock (we won a Grand Slam under him too, you might remember it). It's true that we've become more consistent under Gatland, but we're still not winning these games. It's only right to ask if this is as far as he can take us.

For as long as i can remember i feel confident going into games. Gatland has instilled a belief in this Wales team. I don't blame Gatland for the Aus tour failings, I put the blame completely at Howleys door - to see him almost smirking in the 1st test post match interview - he should have been livid! Howley comes from a generation of welsh players used to losing - Wales have moved on and we should expect more - let's see how we get on the autumn before we hang out Gatland for losses when he wasn't even coaching. Wales are by no means the finished article and Gatland has the time and the backing to continue the upward curve

WelshinEdinburgh wrote:For as long as i can remember i feel confident going into games. Gatland has instilled a belief in this Wales team. I don't blame Gatland for the Aus tour failings, I put the blame completely at Howleys door - to see him almost smirking in the 1st test post match interview - he should have been livid! Howley comes from a generation of welsh players used to losing - Wales have moved on and we should expect more - let's see how we get on the autumn before we hang out Gatland for losses when he wasn't even coaching. Wales are by no means the finished article and Gatland has the time and the backing to continue the upward curve

Not if he is Lions coach.

I totally agree with what you have written otherwsie

I have always had a lot of faith in this coaching set up. That faith has been reinforced time and again.

Even in Gatlands absence we did really well under Robert Howley.

A system, a mentality and a regime has been instilled at the top of welsh rugby, and it is working. We are producing lots of young players who can manage senior rugby and succeed on the international Stage.

I think it is more important to keep a talented team of coaches together than it is too interchange them for fanciful ideas that the grass may be greener.

The WRU have had the patience to give Gatland and his team another four years, I am sure they will do us proud.

bedfordwelsh wrote:After the events of the our it has raised doubts in my mind as to whether Howley has what it takes to keep us going in the right direction if Gatland does get the Lions job.

Morning Bedford,

Sorry what events are you talking about in your post?

Morning Maes,

I just think Howleys whole selection policy was wrong for the entire tour, I know some will say that he was in contact with Gatland and Gatland had an influence in selection

BUT

Howley was given the job as the coach as he will be in the 6 Nations if Gats gets the job and I just don't thin khe has the balls to make the big calls as and when needed.

I don't think when Gatland decides to move on that Howley would be the only name in the hat, neither is it guaranteed that he will assume control for the six nations.

There are other coaches in contention for the Wales job.

The good thing is that we have a good coach with a talented team around him, this will give time to those who need it ready for when the position becomes available.

I would hope that rob Howley would take a bit more time before taking on the head coach job in four years time.

Maes,

I thought it had already been announced that if Gatland gets Lions job Howley will take charge for the entire 6 Nations due to fact that the Lions management would want gatlands full commitment.

That's what I'd heard, too.

I don't think that the selection policy was that bad to be honest.

Priestland and the hooker position being the only discussion really.
What we have to realise is, is that the coaches put time and expertise in to these guys...they select on what they see in games and during the week's training...

Priestland wasn't great, but didn't really do an awful lot wrong...he showed glipses of class and nobody was screaming out to be picked ahead of him...

I think it's important for the Welsh coaches to be given these opportunities...we can't rely on Kiwi's to do the job for us...

Good call MO. Hope gatland leaves on good terms, otherwise it'll be 3 kiwi coaches dispatched with and then slagged off for being rubbish.

Monkey,

Why only take one recognised T/head in the touring party?

There was the Evans issue, why wasn't he used?

Hooker why was Owen dropped completely for 2nd test and he should have started 3rd test.

Preistland and Warburton should have been dropped after second test (though they did have their best games in 3rd test).

Why leave is so late to change Phillips his service was slow for lots of time.

This one is just personal but I still not think Beck quite there yet as a centre.

Suppose the No8 decision was taken away from him but would he have dropped Faletau for clearly better in form Ryan Jones (and I 'm a Dragons fan)

EBOP,

I don't think many are doubting Gatland more Howley, I know I certainly am.

bedfordwelsh wrote:Maes,

I thought it had already been announced that if Gatland gets Lions job Howley will take charge for the entire 6 Nations due to fact that the Lions management would want gatlands full commitment.

Luckless Pedestrian wrote:That's what I'd heard, too.

Gatland hasn't been given the lions job as yet, so why would Howley be announced by the wru as caretaker coach while Gats is on lions duty, if he hasn't accepted the offer?

Must just have been me Maes but am sure I read something saying he would be caretaker coach if Gatland got job.

Paul James has been exceptional on both sides of the scrum for a while now, I think it's great to show so much trust in such a passionate player. I alos know the they put a lot of work in to Rhodri Jones on the tour and he really impressed.

I was surprised by Ianto's omission I must admit, considering his form, but the 2nd row is particularly deep for us.

Phillips is always difficult...throwing on Webb against Genia could easily have backfired, his time will come, but these are still very young guys coming in to already a very young squad.

Dropping Warburton would be tough, Tipuric is banging down the door I know and had a great 3rd test.

Continuity of selection is huge, people that play together (and drink together) will perform and then win games...

We need to remember we were the bounce of the ball away in the third test and a stupid penalty from Hibbard away in the second...

We've had the rub of the green before, unfortunately, not on this tour...

Pretty accurate synopsis Monkey

Monkey,

I agree James doesn't get the credit he deserves but we need to develop a specialist T/Head not convert existing L/Heads.

As far as I am aware the Scarlets see Jones as an out and out L/Head so there is going to be a clash somewhere along the lines if Wales insist on trying to convert him.

I just don't think he had the balls to make the big calls, but that my opinion of course.

bedfordwelsh wrote:Monkey,

I agree James doesn't get the credit he deserves but we need to develop a specialist T/Head not convert existing L/Heads.

As far as I am aware the Scarlets see Jones as an out and out L/Head so there is going to be a clash somewhere along the lines if Wales insist on trying to convert him.

I just don't think he had the balls to make the big calls, but that my opinion of course.

There were a few Tight heads in contention not on tour, good ones coming through too. Plus it's not as though we are the lone country in the world that have only one world class tighthead, most nations don't even have that.

Infact only SA and France have any reasonable, interchangeable depth at tighthead.

We have a good crop coming through though, Joe Rees and Sampson Lee look exciting if Rhodri Jones doesn't convert.

I think that Rhodri was seen as a possible option to be honest...I'm not convinced that they're trying to convert him.

Adam Jones raves about Joe Rees, though I do know that RJ is seen as ridiculously strong for his age...

Let's not forget that these guys train with the senior squad a lot, even though it may not be publicised, there are a lot of guys in and around training squads gathering experience and showing what they've got to offer...

maestegmafia wrote:

bedfordwelsh wrote:Monkey,

I agree James doesn't get the credit he deserves but we need to develop a specialist T/Head not convert existing L/Heads.

As far as I am aware the Scarlets see Jones as an out and out L/Head so there is going to be a clash somewhere along the lines if Wales insist on trying to convert him.

I just don't think he had the balls to make the big calls, but that my opinion of course.

There were a few Tight heads in contention not on tour, good ones coming through too. Plus it's not as though we are the lone country in the world that have only one world class tighthead, most nations don't even have that.

Infact only SA and France have any reasonable, interchangeable depth at tighthead.

We have a good crop coming through though, Joe Rees and Sampson Lee look exciting if Rhodri Jones doesn't convert.

We actually don't have Maes, our tight head position is our weakest, even Jannie du Plessis isn't the best tighthead at scrummaging, he can hold his own, but that's about it.

Werner Kruger has been shon up at the international level in all three his test, against NZ, OZ and England.

After him there isn't much.

That's why Coenie Oosthuizen usually a loose head is being groomed to scrum both sides, and he didn't do too badly against England when he came on. but sadly now he is injured for the rest of the year.