The AI's and World Cup Seedings

Philippe Saint Andre has recently stated that he considers the upcoming Autumn Internationals to be of significant importance, perhaps more so than other years, as they will effectively decide the seedings for the next world cup. France are currently 5th in the rankings and will be looking to overhaul england in 4th, as this will mean they will avoid the top 3 in the world cup group stage. England are in an advantageous position in that their destiny, with regards world cup seedings, is in their own hands, they only have to match the results of teams below them to secure 4th in the rankings. However, France and Wales (6th) will both feel they have a realistic chance of claiming that 4th come the end of the autumn tests.

France are narrowly behind England and they will face Australia, Argentina and Samoa. France will fancy their chances at home against both Argentina and Samoa but limited ranking points will be available as both teams are currently below them. Saint Andre must feel that if France can win all 3 of their autumn tests, particularly if Argentina pick up a win in the rugby championship in the meantime, they will have a good chance of achieving 4th.

Wales are currently 6th but probably feel that their ranking is not a fair reflection of where the team is right now having slammed the 6 nations earlier this year. They are also not that far behind england and france in ranking points and 1 good result could swing it their way. Wales will play; Argentina, Samoa, NZ and OZ in the their series.

England will play; Fiji, OZ, SA and NZ. Perhaps 2 wins from 4 will be enough. Ireland and Argentina are a bit further back in the rankings and must be considered outsiders for 4th spot, although argentina do have 2 home games in the rugby championship to come. It will be particularly interesting to see who comes out on top of the battle for 4th and the team that achieve it will have the bragging rights going into the new year.

Looks like a 5 horse race with 3 favourites, I wouldn't like to call it.

England will play; Fiji, OZ, SA and NZ. Perhaps 2 wins from 4 will be enough

Whilst i would expect to beat Fiji...im not sure im expecting a victory from any of the others...a sad reflection of my confidence in the current side.

This year the 4N hasn't exactly set the world alight when it comes to attack. I get the impression that June has been forgotten and the NH teams are looking forward to getting stuck in and get some ranking points. Probably the one team people are not keen to face is Argentina as there are fewer ranking points available and a loss to them would have a more disastrous effect.

Certainly SA and Australia have been ravaged and key personnel for those sides will continue to be sidelined. But if neither of those sides wins the 4N which seems likely, they may well approach the AI matches as a means of getting their confidence back for the following year.

To be honest, I feel every fan is looking forward to seeing where their team is at and that goes for the SH teams as well. I also get the feeling though that aside from a few teams, we'll still be none the wiser after the AIs as to where everyone stands, that is to stay it all seems very even at the moment.

Frankly, I feel we should play the lowest team in the rankings on the way to Europe and lose. That way our ranking points plummet and we get put in a group of death. Most teams want to avoid being with the top teams. I think we perform best when we have a group that has a decent side at least in it.

I hope Argentina beat the Aussies so that they can be "worth" a few more ranking points if we beat them, because of all the SH teams they are the ones that we do not seem to have a mental block against.

LordDowlais wrote:I hope Argentina beat the Aussies so that they can be "worth" a few more ranking points if we beat them, because of all the SH teams they are the ones that we do not seem to have a mental block against.

I hope they beat the Aussies and then that they beat you guys (no offence, strategic reason ) and then that we beat them to maybe help our crawl up the ladder.

I still don't get why you would want to avoid a top 3 team in the groups.

You will only meet then in the final if you win or lose.

Biltong wrote:I still don't get why you would want to avoid a top 3 team in the groups.

You will only meet then in the final if you win or lose.

You're right...it is a load of bull this idea that you can tiptoe your way through a world cup without meeting the serious challengers. If you don't meet them you've either been having a very good dream or you've been kicked out before you've had the opportunity!

Tricks can happen of course, and like last time the playing field can be divided down more favourable routes than might have been initially planned for but you have to face who you face. And if you think you have enough to win the competition then you shouldn't be cowering in a corner hoping not to meet the top three (whoever they may be by 2015). As far as ranking goes though - it's just nicer to be higher than lower - aesthetically.

GeordieFalcon wrote:

England will play; Fiji, OZ, SA and NZ. Perhaps 2 wins from 4 will be enough

Whilst i would expect to beat Fiji...im not sure im expecting a victory from any of the others...a sad reflection of my confidence in the current side.

I'm more positive than that. England's performances in SA weren't brilliant but the learning curve was steep. A win at home is by no means certain, but it's not impossible either. A lot depends on how many English players the Boks break during the game... but if the team comes through relatively unscathed, I would expect them to have the advantage over the Australian pack in the tight, which in a late autumn game ought to be enough to give them an edge.

Except as the Boks know Biltong you can win a RWC without beating the leading contenders.THAT is not a sleight it is up to them to make the final too!but strange things happen in RWCs.The 4Ns is the hardest tournament in the world to win.Laws change ,styles change what has worked for years may not now.The All Blacks have been playing the same game plan more or less since 2002 with varying degrees of success.The current side has not played the same set of backs,or forwards much to date. 2011 is not 2012,what if the ABs lose every match for the rest of the year,or Oz,or the Boks?the seedings may look very different then.

Poorfour wrote:

GeordieFalcon wrote:

England will play; Fiji, OZ, SA and NZ. Perhaps 2 wins from 4 will be enough

Whilst i would expect to beat Fiji...im not sure im expecting a victory from any of the others...a sad reflection of my confidence in the current side.

I'm more positive than that. England's performances in SA weren't brilliant but the learning curve was steep. A win at home is by no means certain, but it's not impossible either. A lot depends on how many English players the Boks break during the game... but if the team comes through relatively unscathed, I would expect them to have the advantage over the Australian pack in the tight, which in a late autumn game ought to be enough to give them an edge.

Eng simply have to beat either Aus or SA at home otherwise no progress is being made. This is the time to do it as both sids are in disarray. Beating both would be a great autumn and is feasible.

'Disarray' is probably a relative term...

I think the problem with England and Wales is if they pick up points against the "weaker" teams and loose to the top teams they just give back all the points esp as they are at home. I think who ever does the best in their last two games will determine who finishes 4th.

Again if Aus and SA do poor in the AIs they could both be second seeds and as such make getting top seed a load of rubbish if they end up in your group.

Brendan, exactly why I think these rankings make little difference. You still need to win against the toop teams in the knock out rounds, it is inevitable you'll meet teams ranked higher than you.

As we saw with the last two world cups being first seed did nothing for the top seed as they got the strongest 3rd seed.

I think people should be more worried about who is the third seed (Scots, Irish or Argies) as they will have a bigger baring on who gets out of the group then who the top to are.

In the last world cup only half the top seeds made it past the quarter and only one of those that topped the group made it to the semi. Also the last two world cups the two finalists have come from the same group.

Exactly, there are always surpises that shakes things up and make the "supposed" routes null and void.

You can't depend on the seedings then to make your route easier anyway.

In 2011 Australia was supposed to win their group and end up in the other half, they didn't so SA and OZ met and the next round OZ and NZ met, effectively taking each other out.

How do you plan for that?

Go out beat who is in front of you, if you lose, you lose.

France are still an enigma. PSA in his first year at the top, has failed. A report stating the obvious, but I'd say Les Bleus are the ones in pole position for top seed due to what you say. Eng and Wales don't have it easy, but by the time poor old Aus get here they're bound to be battered, more-so than they have done already. There is the best opportunity for all 3 team to pounce. With that said the Wallabies have already exceeded expectations with a crippled team so it won't be easy, they're a nation punching above their weight and good on them.

mikey_philVIII wrote:France are still an enigma.

I was wondering when that one would get an airing this year. It's early but it's made its first appearance of the season so all is well with the world.

Biltong wrote:I still don't get why you would want to avoid a top 3 team in the groups.

You will only meet then in the final if you win or lose.

Because a loss in your group puts you in the bottom half of the knock out draw, so you face a pool topping team instead of a runner up.

For example, you have to for example, face NZ rather than say, Ireland or Scotland.

Scotland are dark horses, Wales on their day are world beaters, Ireland's team is not getting younger and England are quietly rebuilding. That covers everything.

You can never write off Australia, especially when NZ choke.

Biltong wrote:Brendan, exactly why I think these rankings make little difference. You still need to win against the toop teams in the knock out rounds, it is inevitable you'll meet teams ranked higher than you.

Sure but isn't it about momentum and belief, Bilt. Topping the group is a real leg up. If Wales had beaten SA in the first game of RWC 2011 we surely would have won the Cup!

Of course Don, but you don't need rankings to build momentum at a world cup, you need winning peformances.

The reality is only the all BLacks have gone through the pool rounds in all the world cups never being beaten. Every other team has lost pool matches, so the reasoning is simple, do you want to avoid the all Blacks in the pool where you can come second in your pool, or do you want to meet them in the early knock out stages?

The other teams really don't matter where you meet them, just win what you can.

AS for Wales, if they beat us in the 2011 RWC, it would have been Wales vs Australia in the quarters (record not good), or Wales vs All Blacks in the semi ( worse), so Wales would have gone as far as it did either way.

I'm not sure what all the fuss about seedings is about. As I understand it there will be groups, which will be randomly assigned to groups (i.e. teams ranked 1 to 4 are randomly assigned to groups, with teams with ranks 5-8 and so on. 2 teams from each group go through. Most of the top 8 sides will go through to the knock out rounds. The key issues are: is a team ranked 9 or lower capable of beating you and eliminating you and who are you likely to meet in the second round.

Let's say Australia crashes and burns over the next 2 months and ends up in 7th spot and Argentina ends up in 9th. they are still going to in he mix. If your Wales and you n up with these teams in your group are you going to feel confident. If Australai and NZ are in the same group are you going to feel happy knowing you will have to meet one of the in the second round.

Yeah, the seedings don't make a hell of a lot of sense to me either.

I can understand you want to be in tier 1 or 2, but where doesn't really matter all that much, unless you are trying to improve your odds on who you play in a knock out match, but even then it isn't guaranteed anyway.

SecretFly wrote:

mikey_philVIII wrote:France are still an enigma.

I was wondering when that one would get an airing this year. It's early but it's made its first appearance of the season so all is well with the world.

depends what french team turn up I guess....

in all seriousness, this team is still in the process of rebuiding / getting rid of some deadwood so last 6N results were disapointing but not surprising. next AI games will be interesting and certainly not easy ones as proven by france track record against argentina and australia (even at home).

GeordieFalcon wrote:

England will play; Fiji, OZ, SA and NZ. Perhaps 2 wins from 4 will be enough

Whilst i would expect to beat Fiji...im not sure im expecting a victory from any of the others...a sad reflection of my confidence in the current side.

At home I would actually expect them to turn over SA and Oz this year, with injuries devastating both squads. Oz without Cooper look short of ideas, and still very beatable up front.

argentina currently lie in 7th and are in range of the 4th seeding, their perfomances in the rugby championship are comparable to the 6 nations sides facing the big 3.

HQ matt wrote:argentina currently lie in 7th and are in range of the 4th seeding, their perfomances in the rugby championship are comparable to some of the 6 nations sides facing the big 3.

[u]

Agree with HQ
5 losses and a draw against the top three ranked teams. That is about the same or better than what the NH teams would have achieved eg earlier this year. Only Scotland picked up a win.