The Blockbuster Semi: Federer vs Murray thread

[luciusmann]

I've noticed that surprisingly, there arn't any polls (that I can see) for the Aussie Open. I haven't bothered with a poll for Ferrer vs Djokovic. Despite Ferrer's battling qualities, Djokovic is highly likely to win.

The other semi is more evenly poised, however, given the recent history and the near even H2H, who will win? Federer's won all their slam matches but Murray won his first slam with the USO. Many have Murray down as slight favourite. What do you think?

[User 774433]

I'd have the odds 50.1% for Federer, 49.9% for Murray.

[The Special Juan]

I'll go for Murray for no other reason other than I want him to win.

[newballs]

Well since Serena was supposedly an absolute nailed on cert to beat Stephens (and we all know what happened there) you seem to be taking quite a lot of liberties with the Djokovic obvious "stroll in the park"

Any favouritism aside I'm tempted to go for Roger in the other one. His eyesight's obviosly well adjusted to the lights, has been enjoying regular lie-ins with Mirka and doubtless has friends in high places to help him out here.

[User 774433]

Serena has been struggling injury problems all week.
Djokovic-Ferrer on the other hand is a cert.

[newballs]

Serena has been struggling injury problems all week.
Djokovic-Ferrer on the other hand is a cert.

I'm baffled by this one as wasn't yesterday the first time any of these issues got any air time? She'd certainly looked OK in the highlights of earlier matches I saw so would love to know when she first claimed to be struggling.

[Silver]

Flip a coin! I've gone for Fed but there's nothing between them whatsoever, anything could happen.

newballs, I saw a bit of coverage saying that she'd sustained an ankle injury in R1, but that didn't stop her from completely thrashing the opposition. So, I've no idea whether any suspected issues affected her play...

[newballs]

silver yes she twisted her ankle but that didn't seem to be an on-going problem. It was a back spasm caused by chasing down a ball close to the net yesterday that caused her difficulties wasn't it? Can't see how that's related to any knee concerns.

[JuliusHMarx]

I'd have the odds 50.1% for Federer, 49.9% for Murray.

That's way out - I'd have the odds 50.1% for Murray, 49.9% for Federer

[Henman Bill]

Serena has been struggling injury problems all week.
Djokovic-Ferrer on the other hand is a cert.

That's funny because you had the odds for Ferrer-Almagro at 99.5-0.5. And Almagro was leading 2 sets to love and serving for the match at one point!

[Henman Bill]

All the bookmakers have Murray as favourite.

[invisiblecoolers]

Serena has been struggling injury problems all week.
Djokovic-Ferrer on the other hand is a cert.

That's funny because you had the odds for Ferrer-Almagro at 99.5-0.5. And Almagro was leading 2 sets to love and serving for the match at one point!

Just a correction not just serving for the match one point but several occasions, if I am right he served for the Match 4 times , poor Almagro

[socal1976]

I like Murray in 5 sets, I am hoping for a real dogfight. Both as a tennis fan and as a Djokovic fan. I think Murray takes Roger in 4 sets. Andy's second serve is still against the best players in the world attackable, although he has improved it a great deal. I think both players are in great form, but on the slower outdoor hardcourt I think conditions favor murray. But Roger is the goat so I don't doubt that he very well could win, I am taking Murray in a mild upset.

[socal1976]

Wow, I just voted after my first post I can't believe that so many people are seeing it murray's way, although that is the way I see it as well. Quite a discrepancy 80 percent going for murray in this albeit small sample.

[User 774433]

Serena has been struggling injury problems all week.
Djokovic-Ferrer on the other hand is a cert.

That's funny because you had the odds for Ferrer-Almagro at 99.5-0.5. And Almagro was leading 2 sets to love and serving for the match at one point!

I've been through this lol
Even when Almagro was 6-4 6-4 5-4 up there was no doubt in my mind who would win.

[socal1976]

Yes IMBL, you are right Nico Almagro is such an enigma, so much ability and so mentally brittle. With the shots this guy has he should be a consistent top 8 player and challenging for the slams, but instead of finding away to win he seems to find away to lose the big match. It is very rare that over the course of 5 set match against a top pro that you won't have a few uncomfortable and frustrating moments, Almagro seemingly can not reign in his emotions at all at the first sign that things aren't going his way. At the same time we see a player like Djokovic come back from 6-1 and 5-2 down, and a player like Almagro blow a 2 sets and a break lead. In a five set match you are going to have a lull here and there and he just doesn't seem to be able to deal with it. I recommend a sports psychologist if he hasn't seen one before, or just a psychologist in general.

[laverfan]

From a statistical point of view...

Federer - http://www.australianopen.com/en_AU/players/overview/atpf324.html

Murray - http://www.australianopen.com/en_AU/players/overview/atpmc10.html

(Posting the link was easier on eyes and legible. Cutting and pasting mangles it horribly and pictures may look skewed).

[Silver]

Interesting reading LF, thanks for posting those

Looks like they're fairly evenly matched in terms of statistics, as these things go anyway. Fed more consistent and winning more points on both of his serves, and has more winners, but Murray winning far more return games and fewer unforced errors. Both men have had more winners than UEs in all bar one of their matches, which says quite a bit. Murray should be worried by his 2nd serve winning % in the match against Chardy, as Federer will similarly tee-off on the forehand side if he gets a look in. Federer looks to have leaked too many UEs across the board to be comfortable, and he won't get as many winners against Murray to mask that.

Er, that's just how I'm reading them, anyway.

Edit: Had a quick look at the net points across all matches and added them up manually, Fed has come in 153 times and Murray 83 (Djok 113 and Ferrer 90 if anyone's interested).

[socal1976]

Silver, I am little perplexed at why murray spends so little time in the forecourt, especially with the slice backhand and the volleys he has. That is a bit of an unusual statistic and somewhat disconcerting.

[laverfan]

In Federer's own words...

“I know what to expect; whereas it would be different if I hadn't played him (recently),” said Federer of his looming battle with Murray.

“He has changed his game around a bit. He's playing more offensive. I'm looking forward to it. Obviously (he’s) a great player … So I'm expecting a tough match, of course.”

http://www.australianopen.com/en_AU/news/articles/2013-01-23/201301231358940150358.html

No mind games this time, unlike 2010. So Federer recognizes the improvements as well.

[The Special Juan]

I thought it interesting that Federer knew the H2H of the two players. He's either very wary of that or he's determined to put it right.

Also, Fed has made many more UE's than Murray during this tournament. That was one of the massive parts of the Olympic Final so they could really cost Federer against Murray and Djokovic.

[carrieg4]

Gone with Murray but it definitely could go either way, looking forward to it whatever the result.

[luciusmann]

Interestingly, as I thought, most have gone with Murray (at the current vote count of 17), which after the USO, makes sense. I went with Federer, but I wouldn't be disappointed if Murray (he's also a Brit) wins because I can very well see him beating Djokovic in the final, whereas with Federer, I wouldn't be so sure!

I think Murray will probably win but the only chink I see is that Murray is better on faster surfaces (Wimbledon & USO) compared to slower surfaces (Aussie Open & RG). Federer is adept on any surface, the real unknown is what winning the USO will have done to Murray's confidence. Someone pointed out on the other thread that their recent matches haven't been close (Wimbledon was close'ish).

Given that this is a slam match and their last slam match was Wimbledon, I think it will be a lot tighter with the potential of a Federer win, but as I so often say, you just can't be sure with Fed these days. This is the same Fed who won Wimbledon and then 2 months later was dumped out of the QF of the USO (never gone before the semis since 2003). Until Cinci last year, he'd had a superb year and then after that, he lost his edge. Hence why I'm not sure if his edge is back. The contrast is best illustrated by who he lost to post Cinci: Berdych, Murray, Delpo & Djokovic. All of these players he beat earlier in the season with a positive 2012 H2H except with Djokovic where it was 2 apiece. After Cinci, it's a different story. He won no titles after Cinci but he did make 2 finals of which he lost both (compared to 2011's 3 titles post USO). With such unpredictability, I'm staying away from affirming either one as a sure favourite!

[Born Slippy]

These stats need to be taken with a pinch of salt. Murray has played far less points than the other three SFists. For example, 83 net visits for Murray will be a far higher number in % terms than Djokovic or Ferrer. I still agree though, he should go to the net more.

[Gerry SA]

Federer is just better than Murray at everything.

4 sets victory for the Great man

[Silver]

These stats need to be taken with a pinch of salt. Murray has played far less points than the other three SFists. For example, 83 net visits for Murray will be a far higher number in % terms than Djokovic or Ferrer. I still agree though, he should go to the net more.

Absolutely. I'm not sure about total points, but in terms of number of net visits per set, Murray would be at around 100 if he'd played another 3 sets, the same number that Djokovic and Ferrer have played - that puts him above Daveed, at least. Not much in it between him and Novak, I feel they should both get into the net more as they set it up so well at times. Obviously Federer's out on his own in this department.

I've got a bit of time, so I just totted up the full counts for all four guys if anyone's interested?

Djokovic - 113 net visits from 1116 points (10.1%), 82 of 113 visits won (72.6%)

Federer - 153 net visits from 920 points (16.6%), 121 of 153 visits won (79.1%)

Murray - 83 net visits from 801 points (10.3%), 61 of 83 visits won (73.5%)

Ferrer - 90 net visits from 1052 points (8.5%), 68 of 90 visits won (75.5%)

So Born Slippy is right, Murray's been in more than Ferrer statistically, and is comparable with Djokovic all around. Federer looks like a chip-charging maniac next to this lot, it has to be said!

[The Special Juan]

Another point is this is a semi-final, not a final, which is where their 3 past meetings took place. Maybe this match will have a better effect on Murray?

[Born Slippy]

Those stats are measured against points won (not total points played). I reckon Djokovic has actually played 1116 points in total. Murray has played 801. Obviously drops the percentages down (10.3% for Murray, 10.1% for Djokovic).

[Silver]

Ah, damn it. A bit of logical thought would've made that obvious, forgot to engage brain before I went number crunching. Apologies! I'll edit now.

[Born Slippy]

Another point is this is a semi-final, not a final, which is where their 3 past meetings took place. Maybe this match will have a better effect on Murray?

I think it would have done if Murray was not now a grand slam champion (playing Federer in a semi would then have been psychologically easier). As it is, i dont see it will make a difference.

[Born Slippy]

Ah, damn it. A bit of logical thought would've made that obvious, forgot to engage brain before I went number crunching. Apologies! I'll edit now.

I only know because I started working it out on the same basis before realising the error!

[CaledonianCraig]

I think you analyse and cross-analyse for days and come up with different outcomes each time. The key to success for Andy I feel will depend on his first serve and if he can keep that around 65% and play an aggressive game then he has a chance as his service returns will always stand him in good stead aiding him to break serve. He must also make sure he wins as many of the big points as possible as usually the person that does that wins. For Roger I think it could be a big psychological blow if he wins the first set, he must cut down on the unforced errors as well and try to keep the points as short as possible. What will be interesting is how each player's backhand holds up. Both have noted backhands but both have been noticibly misfiring (well for Fed only today) in the tournament. That could be key. As for who will win well omens and past slams is forcing me down the Federer route though I'd love to see Andy win. I voted Federer.

[luciusmann]

I'm surprised a majority have gone with Federer; for the Djokovic vs Federer semi @ Wimbledon, most opted to go with Djokovic which made sense because Federer had lost at Halle, barely survived the 3rd round @ Wimbledon and had been quickly dismissed by Djokovic in Rome & the RG. So back then, there was reason to opt for Djokovic over Federer especially as Djokovic had made the last 4 grand slam finals (Wimbledon '11, USO '11, Aussie Open '12 & RG '12).

Fed has done reasonably well so far and although I voted for him to beat Murray, I'm less sure it will happen just because Fed's performance was shaky in the final third of last year (post Cinci). The record between the two is odd, Murray has the positive H2H (unlike Djokovic) but has lost all their slam meetings. That can't continue forever.

[socal1976]

I agree Lucius, I could be wrong but I feel like Murray is ascendant in this rivalry. I think his victory in the olympics and the USO has exorcised a lot of ghosts. And technically I think Andy has continued to strengthen his two weak areas the forehand and second serve. IF Andy has a poor day in first serve percentage he will lose. Otherwise I think his chances are good. I still would favor Roger on clay, grass, and a quick indoors. But on this slower, outdoor, hardcourt I am going with murray. It should be a wonderful display of tennis. The courts are however playing a bit quicker it seems this year in years pasts, at least that is what the commentators keep saying.

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