AP relegation contenders.

I think there are one or two twists to come but who is favourites to go down after Sales win at the weekend?

I think it's a four horse race between Worcester, London Welsh, Irish and Sale.

Can't explain why but i think it'll be Irish. No particular reason just one of 'those' feelings...

Sale seem to be getting their act together, Welsh have the tougher run-in, but I think the off the pitch issues at Irish make it most difficult for them to keep their performances coming.

I think it could be London Irish too, the others have a bit of fight about them at the moment which I'm not seeing from Irish.

London Welsh - Exeter (away),Saracens (away),Gloucester (away),Bath (away),Northampton (home), London Irish (away), Leicester (away) -

Really poor schedule for LW. Only 1 home game. I think they are the favourites to go down.

Disagree with London Irish because they have Sale,Worcester and London Welsh all at home.

Didn't check the run-in 'shocked, That is a tough schedule for Welsh! going to watch them this weekend at SP. I may have to rethink my 'feeling'. Be a shame to see Welsh go down.

beshocked wrote:London Welsh - Exeter (away),Saracens (away),Gloucester (away),Bath (away),Northampton (home), London Irish (away), Leicester (away) -

Really poor schedule for LW. Only 1 home game. I think they are the favourites to go down.

we have already played them twice. Think their last game is Worcester at home (we have LI at home on last weekend)

Effervescing Elephant wrote:Didn't check the run-in 'shocked, That is a tough schedule for Welsh! going to watch them this weekend at SP. I may have to rethink my 'feeling'. Be a shame to see Welsh go down.

Welsh have a lot of fight about them - as shown by the LBPs.

However the quality in the team is lower than the other sides - best shown by the try stats. They have scored the least in the AP and have conceded the most. That fighting spirit may be enough - we shall see.

Thats a tough run in......who ever did the schedules for the prem league must have it in for LW...

Sale seem to be getting some points on the board just at the right time.

Think it will be Irish. I hope Welsh have done enough, just shows teams that come up can stay up like the Chiefs did.

Welsh have been playing with some ambition and character, especially for a newly promoted team, and I'd like to see them stay up on that basis. A lot depends on the Orange One. If he can stay fit and focused I can see them springing some surprises. If not, they could be in trouble.

Some huge games in that run-in, though.

Irish have it in thier own hands playing all three at home.

If wos are safe you would figure welsh will get 4pts there on the last day.

Sale are doing better but not sure if they will be able to keep it going.

Wos are fine you would assume

I'm not sure that any of them would contribute strongly to the Championship.

Personally I'd cut the Jeff in size anyway so two down and one up for the next four years wouldn't go amiss.

But given that the Cartel is not soon going to be exposed - Sadly Sale but I'd prefer Oxford to drop

With the ruling of Welsh getting up does that mean if irish go down they can come back up. Or are they tied to Reading long term

I do also think it is funny how Falcons are steamrolling the Championship but could lose their only game of the season and not get back up.

Saying that with an average win of 22pts per game you would feel not to worried.

What happened to cause such a gulf between Falcons and the rest but not Welsh and the rest.

With the ruling of Welsh getting up does that mean if irish go down they can come back up. Or are they tied to Reading long term

Brendan,
Irish have a P share so if they go down they'd do so with an enhanced parachute payment.
If they got re-promoted and assuming they are still in Reading, then they'd presumably be able to come back up.

At the risk of being labelled a sore loser LW should already be at the bottom of the table and probably be favourites to stay there, but they benefited from an appalling decision by JP Doyle which some of you may remember resulting in a red card for a perfectly legal tackle by the LI No. 8.

This almost certainly cost LI the match as they had to play 70 minutes with only 14 men and still lost narrowly (by 6 points, or 3 if you deduct the 3 from the non-red card which wasn't even a penalty).

The net result was a differential between LI and LW of at least 6 league points from that match - which could unfortunately prove costly for LI if results don't go their way during the run-in.

greytiger wrote:

With the ruling of Welsh getting up does that mean if irish go down they can come back up. Or are they tied to Reading long term

Brendan,
Irish have a P share so if they go down they'd do so with an enhanced parachute payment.
If they got re-promoted and assuming they are still in Reading, then they'd presumably be able to come back up.

Weren't they one of the teams that don't have the ablity to deceide when a game is played as reading are in the Prem.

Does the Welsh decsision disgrade all the items but in place a club needed to have or was it that you need to have them but only at the start of the season.

Brendan wrote:

greytiger wrote:

With the ruling of Welsh getting up does that mean if irish go down they can come back up. Or are they tied to Reading long term

Brendan,
Irish have a P share so if they go down they'd do so with an enhanced parachute payment.
If they got re-promoted and assuming they are still in Reading, then they'd presumably be able to come back up.

Weren't they one of the teams that don't have the ablity to deceide when a game is played as reading are in the Prem.

Does the Welsh decsision disgrade all the items but in place a club needed to have or was it that you need to have them but only at the start of the season.

Sorry Brendan but I'm not sure I understand much of this but I'll have a go

Weren't they one of the teams that don't have the ablity to deceide when a game is played as reading are in the Prem.

That's a primacy of tenure issue. London Irish don't have primacy, but as the fixture list is worked out pre-season, any conflict issues are negotiated between rugby, footy and TV peeps, it's a common example of fu ckw it PRL/RFU thinking. Actually that's probably the reason why Oxford have appeared live so little this season.

Does the Welsh decsision disgrade all the items but in place a club needed to have or was it that you need to have them but only at the start of the season.

? ? The rule last season was that potential promotees were supposed to have notified RFU/PRL with a proposed ground by Jan 31st (?). The Kassam deal was way, way later than that.

LI and Sale have the quality players but only Sale seem to have the fight in them, just shows that Diamond should never have stopped coaching them really. Irish look a bit lost and spineless still but luckily have a fairly simple run in. Both on paper look like they should stay up.

Wuss have done enough early to make a bit of a gap and have the prior experience of gaining literally one more point than the bottom team to stay up by their finger nails.

So it'll probably be Welsh who have a tough run in and don't have the quality or depth to see them through unless a miracle happens.

I too though have an odd feeling it'll be Irish.

Or Pirates could win the Championship...

Wuss are safe, they have a team that works and can reliably amass points.

Sale are on a role with a team that is starting to click, agree with Yappy the Sale team is best when Diamond is in charge.

LW are a touch average in the tight five but flourish in more open games. They are a touch to predictable in that regard and unless they snatch some IW victories they could well go down.

LI should stay up, they certainly have the players to do so but with Smith in charge they look a little lost. They certainly haven't had much look this season but neither have they shown an AP level game plan.

It's a straight fight between Irish and Welsh and with Irish's recent wins over Glaws and Sarries I feel they'll have more than enough to stay up. Welsh were always going to struggle once their squad strength was tested and with their run in they could well lose every game here on in.

I shall go one step further and say whoever does stay up of the two will go down next season!

HongKongCherry wrote:It's a straight fight between Irish and Welsh and with Irish's recent wins over Glaws and Sarries I feel they'll have more than enough to stay up. Welsh were always going to struggle once their squad strength was tested and with their run in they could well lose every game here on in.

I shall go one step further and say whoever does stay up of the two will go down next season!

LI to go down next season then?

That's a bold prediction ... look at the state Wasps were in at the end of last season and how they are doing now ....

Heaf wrote:That's a bold prediction ... look at the state Wasps were in at the end of last season and how they are doing now ....

True, but Wasps' position last year was slightly false due to the unbelievable number of retirments they had. This has helped them this year and crucially they retained their talent. For me Irish are going to seriously struggle without Corbs, Garvey, Gibson, Joseph and Watson all going or likely to go.

To be fair I expect wuss to be 11th or 12th next season, loosing mullan, kvesic and Goode could wreck them.

HK I agree they will all be missed but some of those you list haven't played that much due to injury/call-ups ... for me Garvey will be the biggest loss if he goes

Wuss have been signing players though, Warwick, Mieres, the Argie flanker whos name I can't remember. None of them are bad players.

Sadly I do feel a bit as if the deck is stacked against Welsh. If they had that victory against Sale then I think they would be safe, but now...

The games between the 3 bottom clubs should be crackers, everything to play for and the perfect argument against ring fencing.

I have to say though, if Sale were relegated and I didn't hear/see comments by Diamond again I wouldn't be too upset. Something about him grates...

HongKongCherry wrote:

Heaf wrote:That's a bold prediction ... look at the state Wasps were in at the end of last season and how they are doing now ....

True, but Wasps' position last year was slightly false due to the unbelievable number of retirments they had. This has helped them this year and crucially they retained their talent. For me Irish are going to seriously struggle without Corbs, Garvey, Gibson, Joseph and Watson all going or likely to go.

The Irish injury list this season has been every bit as bad as Wasps was last year. That's not an excuse, as depth wise we are shallow, but it is a fact.

I am nervous about the run in. On the positive side, we face the other 3 relgation candidates at home. On the negative side we have already lost to all three of them away from home this season, and the MadStad is not a fortress as some other teams home grounds are. We also have Wasps at home, and away trips to Saints, Exeter and worryingly Tigers on the final day. They are all grounds that are tough to get results at. My heart says that we will stay up as we will win our three home games against Worcester, Sale and Welsh, but my head says that we could equally lose all three, and the most realistic outcome here is that come the final day it will be between us and Welsh who go down.

Bathman,
I have no horse in this race, but I believe it is important for Rugby to have a presence in the North and near Manchester. So I would not want to see Sale relegated.

That said, the race to the end will be tight all the way. So hard to tell which team will lose the comepeition to avoid being the least good (too many negatives in that sentence, methinks). The occasional bonus point will be key.

beshocked wrote:Disagree with London Irish because they have Sale,Worcester and London Welsh all at home.

Agreed, Irish have a fairly easy run in to the end of the season, they look the least likely to be relegated in my opinion.

Doc

I agree for the good of the game long term it would be good to have a club in that part of the country in the premiership, be it Sale, Orrell, Waterloo or whoever.

But having said that, a year in the championship wouldnt necessarily mean the end of rugby in the NW. If anything, cutting the chaff might bring it back stronger.

Ozzy3213 wrote:

HongKongCherry wrote:

Heaf wrote:That's a bold prediction ... look at the state Wasps were in at the end of last season and how they are doing now ....

True, but Wasps' position last year was slightly false due to the unbelievable number of retirments they had. This has helped them this year and crucially they retained their talent. For me Irish are going to seriously struggle without Corbs, Garvey, Gibson, Joseph and Watson all going or likely to go.

The Irish injury list this season has been every bit as bad as Wasps was last year. That's not an excuse, as depth wise we are shallow, but it is a fact.

I am nervous about the run in. On the positive side, we face the other 3 relgation candidates at home. On the negative side we have already lost to all three of them away from home this season, and the MadStad is not a fortress as some other teams home grounds are. We also have Wasps at home, and away trips to Saints, Exeter and worryingly Tigers on the final day. They are all grounds that are tough to get results at. My heart says that we will stay up as we will win our three home games against Worcester, Sale and Welsh, but my head says that we could equally lose all three, and the most realistic outcome here is that come the final day it will be between us and Welsh who go down.

Oz, you have had a dreadful run of things with regards to injuries, but I can't agree that it is as bad as Wasps due to the number of retirements they had to hugely experienced players. To have lost the likes of Thompson, Ward-Smith, Hart, Worsley and Rees would decimate most sides.

Don't quite get why people are saying Irish have no fight. We fought well against Bath with 14 men for large periods and just beat Saracens as well as Glos away, where we showed really good attitude...

LondonTiger sorry you are indeed correct.

sirburger London Irish certainly have shown fight and so should every side.

These sides also have the opportunity to exploit the international window.

London Welsh will go down. In terms of quality they are weakest of the sides and are in a very poor run of form. They also have the toughest run in and pinning their hopes of survival on Gavin Henson is fraught with risk.

I'll go so far as to say that London Welsh will be bottom of the table by Sunday night. Wasps are missing an entire back row and I think London Irish will squeak past them at home this week, and likewise Harlequins will be missing half a team and sale will dog it out up the Salford City Stadium. Exeter Chiefs will have too much for London Welsh at home and they may not even get a losing bonus point.

Welsh could well be down before we get to the penultimate round of games.

SirBurger wrote:Don't quite get why people are saying Irish have no fight. We fought well against Bath with 14 men for large periods and just beat Saracens as well as Glos away, where we showed really good attitude...

I think its more to do with picking up losing bonus points than not having fight in them, something Worcester do well.

Welsh now looking like massive favourites for the drop to me.

Beating Wasps yesterday was a massive result for us with Worcester, Sale and Welsh all getting beaten this weekend. Tough one away at Saints next weekend for us, but Welsh have the toughest run in and we are now above them so I am happy.

Irish have had it in their hands as they play the three other teams. Wasps was a bonus.

Welsh have one saving grace which is Wus on the final day.

The only thing with that Brendan is that of the others pick up a couple of wins before then and Welsh don't, they could be down before they face Worcester.

Wasps Last year had the worst luck with injuries in living history...this is just the long term injured list i can remember forgetting short term injuries

John Hart (ankle ligaments op, April 2012) retired
Joe Worsley (neck, Nov 2011) retired
Steve Thompson (neck, Nov) retired
Dan Ward-Smith (back & knee, Aug) retired
Tom Rees (ACL operation) retired
Chris Bell (Achilles, Nov) season over
Rob webber(torn rotator cuff) season over
Marco Wentzel (dislocated shoulder op, Feb) season over
Chris Mayor (thumb ligaments op, Feb) season over
Riki Flutey (ankle ligament op pending, Feb) season over
Christian Wade (groin op, Jan 2012) 12 weeks+ rehab
Tom Varndell (ankle ligament op, Jan) 12 weeks+
Ross Filipo (shoulder op, Dec) 14 weeks+
James Cannon (back injury, Sept) six months rehab
Joe Launchbury (ankle op, Oct) four months
Billy Vunipola (infection, Oct) five months
Jonathon Poff (knee ligaments, Nov) six weeks.

Wasps - long term injured/season over/retired 2012 XV

1)
2)Webber/Thompson
3)
4)Launchberry/Fillipo
5)Wentzel/Cannon
6)Worsley
7)Rees/Poff
8)Hart/Ward Smith/Vunipola
9)
10)Flutey
11)Wade
12)Mayor
13)Bell
14)Varndell
15)

Gutting !.