Djokovic's Dilemma

Djokovic is still undecided about whether to take to the court on Wednesday after hurting his ankle last week in a Davis Cup tie. He did play on in the match and has been practicing therefore the ankle is playable to a greater or lesser extent. This makes the decision perhaps a little more tricky. How bad does it feel? Will it get worse with play? How inhibiting will it be? How well can he realistically expect to do in the circumstances?

But weighed in with these practical concerns must be the position he finds himself in regarding more long term goals. After his Australian Open win he was riding high. A clear number one in the rankings and he was already talking about his hopes for RG. Nadal had been injured since Wimbledon and withdrew from the AO at the last minute so his chances of winning RG and retaining the number one position were looking very promising indeed. But then his position began to change and there was little that he could do to prevent it. Nadal returned looking increasingly confident in South America finishing with a flourish by destroying Ferrer in the final of Acapulco. Then in IW's Djokovic had to watch from the other side of the draw as Nadal beat Federer and Berdych. The prospect of facing Nadal must have looked a little more tricky than it had after the AO. But he didn't get the chance because he lost to Del Potro leaving Nadal to win the title and steal the momentum. Djokovic must have been left wondering how this happened. I'm sure he wasn't alone...

If Djokovic decides not to play he must realize that Nadal's chances of taking a 9th Monte Carlo title go up considerably. Who else has much of a chance of beating Nadal on Clay? If he does play but is inhibited what chance does he realistically have of beating Rafa himself? And the last thing he wants is to lose to Nadal at this stage whatever the excuse.

Djokovic faces a dilemma. Should he play or not?

I'm not sure he'll be worried about Rafa per se, suspect Nadal would be concerned at facing him also...dont forget Nadal hasn't faced Murray or Djokovic yet since comeback. I'd be surprised if he pulled out now TBH.

BTW, Murray needs to reach QF to hold onto #2 otherwise Fed takes it back. Suspect he'll gain it again though as Fed has a lot of clay points to defend.

I'm sure Djokovic feels he has every right to be confident against Nadal. Beating him at Monte Carlo would be a pretty big way to put down a marker for RG.

Nadal will be super-motivated, he must be eyeing that 10th tournament win in a year. Do they give him the court if he does that?

Indeed, Nadal didn't even enter 2004 so this year could have been his 10th in row if successful. On such a gruelling surface its another frankly ridiculous record. I don't think Djokovic fears Nadal anywhere anymore. Both know it would be a likely grueller given MC is slow clay, that's the only concern Novak will have - his ankle. Both need to get to the final though...plenty of banana skins along the way possible and the tour seems to be throwing up surprising results this year.

lydian. You don't think Djokovic will be "worried" about Nadal? I have to disagree. And of course Nadal will be "worried" about facing Djokovic. Who else have these two players got to really worry about apart from Federer and he isn't playing. It would perhaps be less harmful if they lost to someone else.

But my point was about the difference between the two facing each other when Nadal has regained confidence v facing each other when Nadal is easing in after injury. Added to that is how fit Djokovic is or how fit he feels with such a tough challenge ahead. (because injuries can feel better or worse due to how you feel mentally... and I don't mean by that to imply that Djokovic might be imagining anything)

I've heard conflicting stories of whether he will play. Of course if he plays and loses that will give him a little excuse but it will have no effect on the confidence of Nadal if he wins. I do think he's in a difficult position. Maybe starting to even experience a little top level pressure. Not quite the sort that Federer and Nadal have experience when any loss is a disaster but he's starting to have things to defend.

I'm surprised that Murray could lose the number two ranking. Must admit didn't realize the gap between Federer and Murray was so small. All the media are talking about Murray getting to number one so I assumed the number two was safe for a short while. Considering Federer has all those Wimbledon points to defend. Just checking the points and Djokovic has loads! How did he get so many with only one slam?

Yes but you'll notice for the first time in many years all 4 slams last year were won by different guys (Djoko, Nadal, Fed, Murray) so points have been more evenly spread around than before. Fed just had a very consistent and strong year across the board.

Djokovic is yet to hold #1 ranking through a complete year which suggests he does go through more fallow periods in a season. His form this year has been ok but obviously not yet at 2011 or 2012 levels. I'm not sure if he feels #1 pressure or not, he doesn't strike me as that sort of guy but you never know with very confident people whether that's just a front.

On clay Djoko is always going to see Nadal as the favourite in their matches - Nadal won the last 3 times they played, all on clay. I don't think Djokovic will be any more or less "worried" than normal. Djokovic doesn't have a lot riding on MC this year, its not like he's defending the title or needs the points to keep #1. I think he'd be more worried going into Rome or Madrid as they're much closer to RG and as BB said earlier any wins at those late pre-RG stages lay down important markers.

bogbrush wrote:I'm sure Djokovic feels he has every right to be confident against Nadal. Beating him at Monte Carlo would be a pretty big way to put down a marker for RG.

Of course if Djokovic beat Nadal at Monte Carlo that would be a pretty big maker for Djokovic. But I'm not sure that I agree he has every right to be confident of a win. Especially in the circumstances. Now that Nadal has two clay titles and a hard court title he will be feeling pretty confident himself. Those three finals wins that Nadal had over Djokovic might also give Nadal confidence. And Djokovics ankle might begin to ache at the prospect of such a match.

That Nadal is playing for an amazing 9th straight title might make it more tricky for him ( I don't know how players can sometimes pick up rackets when the weight of records is so heavy). But Nadal has proved on many occasions he can deal with such pressure.

Just saw your last post.

I don't know how top players deal with pressure! Djokovic I think is good otherwise he wouldn't be where he is. But he is just beginning to experience the sort of pressure that only the very top players experience. In the really important matches he's still been able to swing out with little to lose. Even if he gets to the final of RG and faces the number 5 seed (Ha ha!) it will be the number 5 seed that is under more pressure. If he faces Nadal in the final in Monte Carlo Nadal will be the one with the 8 straight title wins to defend. But unless he can pull off win like this with less pressure how can he make any claim to be the top player. And obviously that's what he wants.

hawkeye wrote: Just checking the points and Djokovic has loads! How did he get so many with only one slam?

A quick check on his results for the last year will provide you with the answer to that one.

hawkeye wrote:But then his position began to change and there was little that he could do to prevent it.

After AO, he led the rankings by 2655 points. Today he leads the rankings by 3750 points. Is this the change you were talking about?

Or is it YTD? After AO he led the YTD rankings by 550 points. He now leads them by 490 points. Not really a too drastic change in circumstance.

hawkeye wrote:Djokovic must have been left wondering how this happened.

It would be exciting if that were so. Sadly, it doesn't actually agree with what he said about Rafa's HC form before the IW semi:

"Well, it's sort of expected, considering the success throughout his career that he had on all the surfaces. It wasn't a big surprise."

I only post these comments because I felt like I'd be tricked into reading a tabloid and doing this makes me feel a little less tarnished.

The RG seedings are so exciting as prospects. Djokovic is defending 600 points, no? No RG ramifications, seeding-wise, I dont think, but it will be interesting to keep watch of that #1 ranking.

Regarding the RG seedings, though if Nadal is seededy fifth, I dont think Federer minds a game of musical chairs with the #2 ranking, as he would probably back himself vs Djokovic, Murray and Ferrer on clay, and he as much of a chance of drawing Nadal in QF wether ranked 2 or 3.

HM Murdoch. It's easy to throw numbers about without any analysis. Whatever the number of ranking points Djokovic has looks entirely different when you factor in the return of a rival. If you describe the rival in terms of his ranking points he doesn't look particularly scary. You would be foolish to do this though. I'm sure Djokovic isn't that foolish.

You should try and be a little less rude when responding. It doesn't make you look good.

hawkeye wrote:HM Murdoch. It's easy to throw numbers about without any analysis.

It's even easier to throw opinions around without any numbers.

The frustrating thing is that there is an interesting question posed in amongst all this.

Why you have to always add this layer of "Novak would have expected to beat Rafa but now he's left wondering where it has all gone wrong" is beyond me. It doesn't match with anything that Novak (or any other player for that matter) has said about Rafa's return and prospects.

Do you not think the question is interesting enough without having to make up this sub-plot?

The straight question is - who is likely to win if Djokovic and Nadal meet in the final next Sunday? Its not clear cut, much could rely on the form during the week in getting there. Right now, I suspect Novak is more concerned with his ankle than Nadal.

I would also wager Nadal is more concerned with his second round opponent ("I am going to have to be at my very best to beat *insert name*, no?) than Djokovic.

lydian wrote:The straight question is - who is likely to win if Djokovic and Nadal meet in the final next Sunday? Its not clear cut, much could rely on the form during the week in getting there. Right now, I suspect Novak is more concerned with his ankle than Nadal.

I think there's a very good chance that Novak won't even make the final.

Even if the ankle doesn't cause any issues, he's been playing on hard courts up to last weekend and can't have trained much this week. I don't expect him to be able to just waltz up to a clay tournament and stroll through to the final.

HM Murdoch wrote:

lydian wrote:The straight question is - who is likely to win if Djokovic and Nadal meet in the final next Sunday? Its not clear cut, much could rely on the form during the week in getting there. Right now, I suspect Novak is more concerned with his ankle than Nadal.

I think there's a very good chance that Novak won't even make the final.

Even if the ankle doesn't cause any issues, he's been playing on hard courts up to last weekend and can't have trained much this week. I don't expect him to be able to just waltz up to a clay tournament and stroll through to the final.

and so (nothing to do with points as Djokovic has loads more) if Djokovic doesn't reach the final or even play and Nadal were to win (because this is more likely if he doesn't have to face Djokovic). How would this result affect the rest of the clay season? It would be a boost to Nadal don't you think?

And say if Djokovic reached the final but lost (perhaps because of the ankle). How would that result impact on the rest of the clay season? It would still be a boost to Nadal.

That's why I believe Djokovic has a dilemma and I'm not quite sure what he should do for the best.

IMO you are looking at things too simplistically when you just look at numbers. Do you really think that Djokovics huge number of ranking points are any protection when he faces Nadal? Do you really think that Nadal thinks he has less of a chance of winning because he is ranked down at 5 with few ranking points? For players of this standard who have played each other on many occasions confidence, how they are feeling and momentum are of far more importance.

If you think these issues is discussed in tabloids I would like to know which ones as I would be very interested to read such analysis. I reckon Djokovic's Wimbledon victory could have been predicted by looking at these things.

Indeed HMM, although his draw isn't too bad given that...DP in the QF would be the major challenge I suspect. People seem to see Nadal shoehorned into the title - and he is a warm favourite - but questions remain.

HE, any players ranking points are irrelevant when they face any of the big 3-4. In a way I know what you are getting at - or alluding to. Last year Nadal broke his 0-7 duck against Djokovic by winning at MC. That seemed to swing momentum and we saw Nadal win at Rome and RG. Djokovic MAY have this effect from 2012 in mind but I'm not sure this time around as the circumstances were different last year.

Of course on the other hand you might argue this is conversely the BEST time for Djokovic to face Nadal on clay. If Djokovic doesn't enter and Nadal wins the title, that puts Novak under more pressure the next time they meet given Nadal will have momentum and Djokovic will still be waiting to play a clay tournament. If Novak loses then he can say the ankle wasnt quite right...he kind of cant lose in a way. So I say its better Novak tries to face him now when Nadal is still perhaps in the last stages of comeback mode, and if Novak gets the win then the momentum shifts completely. For me its really a no-brainer - if the ankle is ok then he plays this week rather than let Nadal build his momentum unchallenged (notwithstanding Murray et al this week).

Well yes if Novaks ankle is OK of course it is a no brainer and he should play. But there must be doubts that's why he's delaying his decision. It is the doubts that must make the decision tricky.

Added to this is the fact that he may be facing a different Nadal than the one he may have thought he would at this stage so I'm sure he must feel that he has to be in good condition to get a win. Like you say he won't want to let Nadal build up momentum unchallenged but bad ankle or not he doesn't want Nadal to build up his momentum even more with a win over him.

Ha ha! of course none of this could happen because Nadal could go out before the final. Anyone who's prepared to take big risks, has the weapons, swing for the lines and put in a Rosol like performance could do it. And lets face it none have anything to lose so why not try?

hawkeye wrote:That's why I believe Djokovic has a dilemma and I'm not quite sure what he should do for the best.

IMO you are looking at things too simplistically when you just look at numbers. Do you really think that Djokovics huge number of ranking points are any protection when he faces Nadal? Do you really think that Nadal thinks he has less of a chance of winning because he is ranked down at 5 with few ranking points? For players of this standard who have played each other on many occasions confidence, how they are feeling and momentum are of far more importance.

This is the part of your post that, once you strip away the unneccessary embellishments, remains a worthy point. And no, I'm not really looking at the numbers on this matter, they were just quoted as counterweight to some of your narrative.

I don't think it's as big a dilemma as you. If Novak is fit to play, he'll play. I don't think he has any fear of Rafa and vice versa. They have professional respect and nothing more.

Regardless of their respective fitness levels, Novak will surely accept that Rafa remains the top man on clay. Rafa will likewise recognise that Novak, probably more than any other player, is capable of beating him on that surface.

Momentum? It's a consideration but I think it's more nuanced than you do.

Let's say hypothetically that Rafa beats Novak by a narrow margin. Does the win mean he has momentum? Probably. But can Novak not also say that it is the closest he has ever come to winning MC and he did it on a dodgy ankle and vitually no training on clay, therefore he has his own momentum?

It's commonly said that Rafa got momentum at MC last year.

He didn't.

He got it at the AO. He may have lost but he knew he had pushed Novak to the limit. The mental demons were gone and he could begin the next match knowing that a victory was in reach.

All that matters is the player's form. If both players play well but the win just goes to the man who was better on the day, I think both players can justifiably claim to have momentum. They would both be playing well in the run up to RG.

What if it's a trouncing? That could make things psychologically interesting but they are tough guys. I'd like to think they wouldn't experience a mental collapse.

Truth be told, professionals dont give one iota about the circumatances leading into a victory.

Djokovic's injury does add some pressure because it comes at a terrible time even if it is a minor injury. The timing is really bad. Djokovic is a confidence player and needs to build his momentum towards a French open title. In 2011 we saw how his confidence bubbled from successive wins particularly against nadal. I agree with op on that, but I also agree that novak's position in the rankings is by no means under immediate threat

Djoko will play, it's all within his populist-nationalistic agenda, me hurt, me win for Serbia, me plays injured for my people.

Nothing new here.

Told you so: http://www.sport24.co.za/Tennis/ATPTour/Djokovic-fit-to-play-Monte-Carlo-20130416