Final Weekend of League Fixtures

This is the position of the Magners League table before the final weekend.

Team P | W | D | L | F | A | BP| PTS
1 Munster 21 | 18 | 0 | 3 | 474 | 321 | 7 | 79
2 Leinster 21 | 14 | 1 | 6 | 457 | 333 | 7 | 65
3 Ulster 21 | 14 | 1 | 6 | 460 | 405 | 5 | 63
4 Cardiff 21 | 13 | 1 | 7 | 456 | 354 | 6 | 60
5 Ospreys 21 | 11 | 1 | 9 | 541 | 408 | 13 | 59
6 Scarlets 21 | 11 | 1 | 9 | 465 | 430 | 11 | 57
7 Dragons 21 | 10 | 1 | 10 | 431 | 442 | 6 | 48
8 Edinburgh 21 | 9 | 0 | 12 | 415 | 429 | 7 | 43
9 Connacht 21 | 7 | 1 | 13 | 388 | 437 | 9 | 39
10 Treviso 21 | 8 | 0 | 13 | 343 | 496 | 2 | 34
11 Glasgow 21 | 6 | 1 | 14 |398 | 505 | 7 | 33
12 Aironi 21 | 1 | | 0 | 20 | 237 | 505 | 7 | 11

Munster and Leinster are already guaranteed play-off places, and Munster have a home draw in the bag. There remaining places will be taken by two of Ulster, Cardiff, Ospreys and Scarlets, although Scarlets will be unlikely to make it as Ospreys play Aironi and they can't catch Ulster. The complete list of fixtures is

Aironi v Ospreys
Leinster v Glasgow
Munster v Connacht
Newport-Gwent Dragons v Ulster
Scarlets v Cardiff Blues
Treviso v Edinburgh

I think that will leave final standings of 1. Munster, 2. Leinster, 3.Ulster, 4. Blues/Ospreys depending on the result of the Blues-Scarlets game and bonus points in that and the Ospreys' game, with Ospreys finishing ahead if they tie on points. Of course this assumes Leinster and Ulster win. Ulster losing could see them drop to fifth. Leinster losing could see them lose their home semi-final. There's plenty to play for in the last games on the normal league season as a result.

Blues need:
1) Win against the Scarlets
2) Draw with a bonus point
3) Draw with no bonus point, and Ospreys fail to pick up a bonus point win
4) Losing bonus point, 4 try bonus point, and Ospreys fail to pick up the bonus point win

Ospreys need:
1) Bonus point win, and Blues fail to win
2) Win against Aironi, Blues only one bonus point in a loss
3) A Win, and the Dragons winning against Ulster

Scarlets need
1) Beat Blues with a bonus point, Blues to pick up one or less bonus points, and Aironi to beat the Ospreys
2) Beat the Blues (no bonus point), Blues not to pick up a bonus point, and Aironi to be the Ospreys

Ulster need
1) To beat the Dragons

Good to see that there is still a fair bit to play for at the top of the table.

Also there is still some pride on the line at the bottom. IF Connacht can win and Edinburgh lose then it could end up and all Irish/Welsh top 8.

Not sure you are quite right about the Blues SS. A bonus point draw will leave them on 63 points, which if Ospreys win they will equal and surpass with a bonus point win. With a draw, a win puts Ospreys through. I think (correct me if I'm wrong) that Ospreys go through if they are level on points.

If Blues fail to win, then a bonus point is enough for Ulster.

There's definitely some interest further down as you say. Connacht are guaranteed to finish ahead of Glasgow, which is an achievement for them given how they have struggled previously. To finish above both Scottish sides would show both how far Connacht have come and how poor the Scottish sides have been this year.

SC - your right it should have been bonus point draw, ulster lose with no bonus points. That was the sacrificial lamb in there, so that someone could find it (or i just screwed up).

Let's give you the benefit of the doubt.

Plenty of permutations, but I think the Ospreys actually might have things in their hands because it's hard to imagine Blues getting a bonus point, but Ospreys could. On the other hand, Aironi aren't pushovers at home.

Just talking to an Ospreys fan at work, and he doesn't seem confident.

The kick off times of all matches being the same is interesting as it stops any of this seeing how results go else where nonesence. Every team needs to go hell for leather and do their best no matter what, and I think that may just be the advantage for the Ospreys. After all the Dragons will want to keep their momentum going, and their backs will want to show Gats and Co. what they are all about. And the Scarlets/Blues will be going all out to win, which will probably lead to a boring kicking game with very little tries.

Almost all over bar the shouting, sort of vindicates the playoffs to me.
The Magners needed this BECAUSE there is no relegation, and it's proved to bring importance to at least half the league teams.
Question: without relegation how can the other half be made more competitive?

OK. I know we have these summer games, World cup and whatever , but i will miss the Magners, only 31/2 months to go.

Ospreylian - there isn't really too much you could do to shake up the bottom half of the table. However if things are to carry on as they have been then I think the bottom of the table may we end up being closer to the top with each season (if that makes any sense).

For the the problem lies in the fact that the Scottish and Italian sides are automatically qualified for the HC anyway, so they don't realistically have anything to play for once they are out of play-off contention.

On the other hand, is it fair that Munster don't necessarily win the league when they are so far ahead? A league should reward sustained success across the season, but in the Magners you can play badly in the first half, make a push in the second half to finish fourth and still win it if you come to form at the right time.

Making the qualification for HC based purely on league position would obviously help, but then there would be a realistic chance this year that no Scottish or Italian teams would qualify, which they wouldn't be too happy about. It would also undermine the HC as a European competition and not just an English-Welsh-Irish-French competition, although you could argue that at the moment it's an English-Irish-French competition as these teams dominate.

The individual unions decide who qulalifies from their nation for the HC, not the ML, so I doubt they will ever come to an agreement where the ML standings alone decide the HC spots, even though that is the only realistic way to get he league to be fully competitive all season around. Also I believe that the unions ould if they really wanted to pick a side that has finished lower than the other in the ML, for example if the Scarlets really upset the WRU the Dragons could be put into the HC instead.

I do agree with you on the fact he play-offs are unfair. I still believe that we should have gone back to the celtic cup competiton at the end of the season for the top four sides as opposed to a play-off system, as that way the outright league winners would be the team that performed all season, but the cup winners would be who is best out of the top four sides in a knock out competition

I do realise the unions control HC qualification - I was just suggesting that if the unions could come to an agreement it would enhance the ML as a spectacle. It's never going to happen though.

The Celtic Cup definitely worked well, and would not require any more games than currently are needed. However it could cause some problems to HC qualification if say all four Irish or Welsh teams finished in the top four and then the fourth team won the cup. Who would go to the HC? The top three in the league or the top two plus the cup winners?

SC this is definitely getting too complicated now.

I never liked the Celtic cup, seemed like a waste of time and had little riding on the outcome, sort of a celtic LV= cup. agree about the eventual winner of the league, but playoffs have ADDED SOMETHING.

That's part of my point ospreylian, it is complicated and that's why such a system would be problematic. It's very hard to think of a solution that makes the league entirely fair while keeping interest right to the end. Without the play-offs, everything would have been wrapped up a fortnight ago.

My very elderly cat is poorly so while not sleeping I've given this a lot of thinking time, how sad.

Here it is, and it's radical:
I'm talking HANDICAPS.
Use the previous season to handicap all the Magners teams. Like this:

Top four teams............Add four points to those teams at the start of the next season.
Middle four..................Add three points etc.
Bottom four................Add two points.
The top teams merit the biggest bonus, but by giving the middle tier the chance to get three to start would be a huge incentive to play to the end.

Might work but then again it was very late when i thought of it.

That's certainly radical ospreylian. I think there are two issues. Firstly by doing the points staggering in groups of four it is less competitive than it would be if it was in groups of two, i.e. top two get four points, third and fourth get three, etc, and the last four teams get nothing. (By the way why did the bottom four get two and top four get four, why not zero and two?)

The second, more serious problem is that it will make it even harder for teams who are weaker to advance in the league. They would have an extra barrier to overcome if they want to improve their position the following year, which could create a very obvious divide between the best teams and the rest (although obviously this will always exist to a certain extent.)

Good to have a different idea though, because I am not a fan of the play-offs except in their capacity to keep the league interesting until the end.