French Open 2013 Finals Thread - David vs Goliath ,Rafa to roll for 8th Crown in history?

[invisiblecoolers]

Massive favorite vs major underdog could be the theme of the finals, can David beat the Goliath for a career rewarding title?

I guess I owe a good thread in this FO series and here I go, the match starts roughly at 3.00 PM, nice start time for Canadian fans, as it will be 9 AM in the morning.

Let Analyze do David have it in him to win Rafa aka slay Goliath? the straight forward answer would be no, some of them has gone so far saying I won't mind betting my house on Rafa win even if David is 2 sets up, such is the impact of Rafa. What I find strange is punters fear, they are giving only 4 odds on David to win the first set, are they seeing the match to be closer than what a general tennis fan would see? Indeed Djoko got 2.9 odds on him, so chance of upset tomorrow is only marginal compared to Rafa's semifinal opponent?

Rafa to win 3-0 gets 1.72 odds and 3-1 gets 3.50.

Whoever gonna win it was an eventual tiresome tournament with so many upsets, with Robredo being the chief culprit, it was a fun enjoyable tournament and I hope we get a fitting finale with the biggest upset.

Let the game Begin.

[User 774433]

Good preview IC

For sure I think Ferrer actually has a good chance in this final.
Nadal I think may be tired from his semi vs Djokovic, while Ferrer has not dropped a set all tournament.

Nadal has said in an interview that he does not see himself as the favourite, and given Ferrer's great play this week I can see why he would say that.

Anyway Rafito

[Gerry SA]

I'm not sure I'm buying into Nadal's "I'm not the favourite" statement. Maybe it's mindgames. Maybe it's respect to his good friend.

But Nadal's had Ferrer's number on clay for over 9 years.

Early into his comeback Nadal humiliated Ferrer 6/0 6/2 in Acapulco, where Ferrer was made the overwhelming favourite.

Yes the match in Madrid and Rome where a lot closer, but Ferrer must still be remembering that Acapulco beat down.

I do think Ferrer has a chance. But it's dependent on whether Nadal gets nervous.

[socal1976]

Ferrer is going to get killed. Still it is a great accomplishment to make his first slam final. I see him being 20 to 1 underdog to win this match.

[invisiblecoolers]

Good preview IC

For sure I think Ferrer actually has a good chance in this final.
Nadal I think may be tired from his semi vs Djokovic, while Ferrer has not dropped a set all tournament.

Nadal has said in an interview that he does not see himself as the favourite, and given Ferrer's great play this week I can see why he would say that.

Anyway Rafito

Thx Red.

On topic, you know Nadal better than me, he always down plays his chances, but we all got what we wanted a tired Rafa vs fresh Ferrer to have a chance, I sincerly hope David capitalize and pull of a grandslam win somehow.

[invisiblecoolers]

Ferrer is going to get killed. Still it is a great accomplishment to make his first slam final. I see him being 20 to 1 underdog to win this match.

Thats understandable given the track record, but the punters are giving only 7 odds on Ferrer, do tat mean Ferrer have 25% chance to win the game

[yloponom68]

Rafa at this point, is, the undisputed "King of Clay," of that, there is no doubt in the minds of anyone who has a realistic grasp of the clay court game. That said, this is because of what he HAS done - starting with his incredible 1st tilt at the French Open in 2005, through his spectacular win v Djokovic in the semifinals.

Many times we have heard that he is the 2nd person to win the French Open singles in his 1st assault thereon; this is in fact, not true. He is the 1st, and to date only one to do so. Mats Wilander was in the qualifiers draw in 1982 and was beaten in the final round of qualifying 6-4, 6-4 (by a journey man Columbian). So whilst had not "made" the main draw, his win in 1982 was actually his 2nd attempt at the French Open Men's singles title, which for him in 1981, started in the qualifiers as his ranking required.

Nadal's history at the French Open indeed gives some indicators as to what one "might" expect to happen but it is not written in stone that that will come to pass. Ferrer has long been unappreciated for that, which all his devotion, training and talents can bring forth. Sure, he will have to play the match of his Life, hope Nadal is feeling the effects of his monumental match with Djokovic, and doesn't play to his maximal levels. But stranger things have happened in tennis, sports and Life.

As a very devoted Nadal fan, if there is one person for whom the disappointment of losing at the French Open for Nadal, would be made "livable," by the other's victory, that man is....Ferrer. He deserves a French Open title, he has worked his backside off, is fanatically fit, focused, and a "terrier" on the court. Be sure, that, if Nadal is off his game, feeling tired in any way, and has doubt in any far flung corner of his mind, after his long time away from the game - then Ferrer is the very last player he'd want to meet.

I hope that both of them show up, with their best games, in good health and come what may. If it's the coronation of King Rafa VIII, or a stunning upset and sees Ferrer finally realizing his Life's ambition, it will be a fitting end to Roland Garros 2013. 126 players have "fallen" to date, and there is room for but one more tomorrow...that leaves 126 players who would wish to be where Ferrer and Nadal are tomorrow - they don't have a chance - but both of those awaiting to play tomorrow's final - HAVE a chance.

[yloponom68]

Oops! that should read that Wilander was in the qualifying draw in 1981, the same year he won the Boy's Singles - and NOT in 1982 - apologies.

[invisiblecoolers]

Nice sum up bro.

[lydian]

Sorry to be the harbinger of doom but the weather forecasts have changed overnight to now be 40% chance of rain all day. At best its going to be stop/start, on/off tennis on very damp courts - which Ferrer will prefer I'm sure - or it goes into tomorrow. Not sure I'm going to sit in front of the TV all day for the odd 30 mins of lumpy tennis here and there.

http://www.wunderground.com/cgi-bin/findweather/getForecast?query=zmw:00000.98.07150&hourly=1&yday=159&weekday=Sunday

http://www.bbc.co.uk/weather/2988507

[Henman Bill]

Hi Lydian I was just about to post the same BBC weather link. You know last year I bought tickets for the final and then I had to decide when to buy a train ticket back, Sunday night, Monday or Tuesday. I chose Monday train (about lunch time) because I had looked up that every final had successfully finished on a Sunday for many, many years and therefore it seemed the odds of a Monday finish were remote. Although it DID go to Monday, and I had to throw the Eurostar ticket in the bin, and get a local train to Calais and get a ferry. And Monday's play was fairly average and you may remember finished on a double fault. Anyway, it would be strange to have 2 Mondays in a row after all those years without one - since 1973.

I had a look at the Monday forecast and it looks good. Sunny.

[CaledonianCraig]

Is this really open to debate?

All stats and head-to-heads between the pair point to a resounding win for Nadal. I would be surprised if Ferrer wins a set. I do rate Ferrer as a player but he just lacks the weapons to dent the armour-plated Rafael Nadal. Akin to try to destroy a tank by throwing a small pebble at it.

[lydian]

Thanks for sharing what must be a relatively frustrating experience last year! I like to see continuous play whether warm or cold, it's so frustrating when they go on and off all the time, it destroys momentum and ruins it for all watching. Hopefully those probabilities today don't all stack up so we get a 2-3hr window. Yep tomorrow looks good, Murphy's Law.

CC, its cool/damp today, if they play then Ferrer definitely gets help from this.

[Guest]

If Ferrer gets in sight of the winning line he'll crumble; UE's and DF's are guaranteed.

Probably the easiest slam final opponent since Rafa beat that other guy in 2005.
Even Baghdatis had some weapons and could hit a hot streak.

The thing about Ferrer is that he makes it look like it was a hard won victory for his opponent without actually ever threatening to win himself.

[CaledonianCraig]

lydian, that will make not an iota of difference. Rafael Nadal is the greatest clay courter of all-time who has just beaten the world No.1 and is in sight of an 8th French Open whilst Ferrer is in his first slam final and has never troubled Nadal in their previous encounters.

[User 774433]

Probably the easiest slam final opponent since Rafa beat that other guy in 2005.

Yeah, fair enough. He did have to go through a bl**dy hard SF though
The only way I see him losing this really is if is too tired, or if he gets injured.

[Guest]

Thanks for sharing what must be a relatively frustrating experience last year! I like to see continuous play whether warm or cold, it's so frustrating when they go on and off all the time, it destroys momentum and ruins it for all watching. Hopefully those probabilities today don't all stack up so we get a 2-3hr window. Yep tomorrow looks good, Murphy's Law.

CC, its cool/damp today, if they play then Ferrer definitely gets help from this.

I don;t think the conditions will help Ferrer. If anything it will hinder him. How's he supposed to hit any winners? He struggles to put the ball away against the top guys even faster conditions, how on earth is he gonna get the ball past the human wall in slower conditions. It's not like he's going to be able to outlast or out grind Nadal - the ultimate grinder. Ferrer is Nadal lite without the top spin.

[User 774433]

Although it DID go to Monday, and I had to throw the Eurostar ticket in the bin, and get a local train to Calais and get a ferry. And Monday's play was fairly average and you may remember finished on a double fault.

You got to see the most heroic moment in Slam history- you lucky lucky guy.

[User 774433]

Thanks for sharing what must be a relatively frustrating experience last year! I like to see continuous play whether warm or cold, it's so frustrating when they go on and off all the time, it destroys momentum and ruins it for all watching. Hopefully those probabilities today don't all stack up so we get a 2-3hr window. Yep tomorrow looks good, Murphy's Law.

CC, its cool/damp today, if they play then Ferrer definitely gets help from this.

I don;t think the conditions will help Ferrer. If anything it will hinder him. How's he supposed to hit any winners? He struggles to put the ball away against the top guys even faster conditions, how on earth is he gonna get the ball past the human wall in slower conditions. It's not like he's going to be able to outlast or out grind Nadal - the ultimate grinder. Ferrer is Nadal lite without the top spin.

That's funny- I see Ferrer as more of a Djokovic lite.
Ferrer can hit winners if he finds the right angles, but for Nadal his FH will not be as effective.

[Guest]

Anyway I won't be watching.

This is probably the dullest possible encounter in tennis.

[User 774433]

Anyway I won't be watching.

This is probably the dullest possible encounter in tennis.

This is the most exciting day of French Open history. I'm so bloody excited.

[Guest]

Anyway I won't be watching.

This is probably the dullest possible encounter in tennis.

This is the most exciting day of French Open history. I'm so bloody excited.

Don't forget to kiss your Nadal posters (all of them) before you go to bed

[User 774433]

I don't kiss my Nadal posters.

[User 774433]

That would be weird.

[lydian]

Guys I agree with all points. When I say it helps Ferrer I mean it keeps it lower so Nadal's spin isn't quite as vicious to a guy of 5'9. But it's still a daunting prospect, I think we all know that. The neutrals can just call it as it is, the Rafa fans are not going to tempt fate by saying similar. If it gets rained off until tomorrow so it's then warm, sunny and Nadal is much more rested then I fear for David's trip to the bakery given nerves might have eaten him alive by then too. I respect Ferrer greatly but don't enjoy watching him play one iota. As a fan, today's match is essential but not sure I'll enjoy it, it's like we've already had the final.

[CaledonianCraig]

Hopefully, Ferrer can prove me wrong and at least be semi-competitive to help make the final a spectacle instead of an anti-climatic let-down. I won't hold my breath though.

[lydian]

The weather radar map over Paris looks horrible.

http://weather.cnn.com/weather/forecast.jsp?zipCode=433858208652

This Weather Network forecast is a complete washout...


Think I'll be out this afternoon rather than just sitting around watching reruns, catch you guys later.

[JuliusHMarx]

Anyway I won't be watching.

This is probably the dullest possible encounter in tennis.

This is the most exciting day of French Open history. I'm so bloody excited.

A foregone conclusion against an opponent whose style of play I have no interest in. No excitement for me, alas, but it will give me time to cut the lawn - I always look for the positives!

[Haddie-nuff]

How much do you charge JM

[JuliusHMarx]

About £20 an hour, £100 for the whole night

[Haddie-nuff]

Ermmm let me think... ok but you will have to pay for your own flight ...

[JuliusHMarx]

I'll grab a suitcase....

[Haddie-nuff]

[bogbrush]

Anyway I won't be watching.

This is probably the dullest possible encounter in tennis.

This is the most exciting day of French Open history. I'm so bloody excited.

Me too. When was the last time on a RG final that I knew I could concentrate on enjoying the fine weather in the garden and then watching the Grand Prix? And with Montreal hit by changeable weather it promises to be exciting.

[User 774433]

Anyway I won't be watching.

This is probably the dullest possible encounter in tennis.

This is the most exciting day of French Open history. I'm so bloody excited.

Me too. When was the last time on a RG final that I knew I could concentrate on enjoying the fine weather in the garden and then watching the Grand Prix? And with Montreal hit by changeable weather it promises to be exciting.

Who cares about gardening and that annoying German man driving his car round and round a road really quickly.

The (my) dream final is on.

[summerblues]

Not a big fan of annoying Spanish men running on and on really quickly () but will try to watch the match - or at least some of it if rain interruptions are bad.

Ferrer has little chance - I would make it 5-10% but even then I am wondering where that chance will come from. But it is a slam final (at least in name), so do not want to miss it entirely unless I have to.

[invisiblecoolers]

Anyway I won't be watching.

This is probably the dullest possible encounter in tennis.

This is the most exciting day of French Open history. I'm so bloody excited.

Don't forget to kiss your Nadal posters (all of them) before you go to bed

Emanci you made me laugh big time bro, I still can't control this, post of the day so far.

[The Special Juan]

Do you ever think we'll ever see an(other) all British major final?

[kemet]

Unfortunately, David has no chance. The only man capable of beating the impregnable Spaniard from Mallorca was eliminated from the tournament on Friday. Rafa will get some hitting practice today.

[NickisBHAFC]

Cracking back hand from Nadal. Going to be a great game this one.

[summerblues]

My guess is Rafa will win today.

[JuliusHMarx]

My guess is Rafa will win today.

In less than an hour?

[kingraf]

Could be a very short days work.

[NickisBHAFC]

Really surprised people are completely writing Spanish Dave off. It will come back to bite you!!!

[User 774433]

Ferrer now dominating- for me he is marginal favourite.

[lags72]

yloponom68 - excellent post and your reference to the 126 players who have fallen puts me in mind of that oft-quoted definition of a Grand Slam in the heyday of Federer : "a tennis tournament where 127 of the world's best players battle it out over two weeks for the privilege of finishing runner-up to Roger Federer"

This has always been the case for so many years at RG for the king of clay Nadal.

I go totally with those predicting a very clean win for Nadal, and quite possibly even routine. These two are hardly the combination for a dream final as regards tennis excitement (and clearly less exciting for some than a spot of lawn-mowing .... ) and so the only hope is that Ferrer can at least put up some resistance.

[User 774433]

Dream Final Lags, dream final.

[User 774433]

Terrible drop shot- Ferrer crusiing.

[lags72]

Indeed.

Especially for anyone who has trouble sleeping .......

[User 774433]

Sensation forehand DTL by Ferrer- he's making a mockery of these early predictions.

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