Djokovic's half of draw

With Nadal, Federer, Murray and Tsonga all landing in same half of draw, there's obviously a great opportunity for Djokovic but what about the other players in his half?  Its a great opportunity for other players to go far in the draw.  Lets have a look at some names who could progress far in that half of the draw...

Haas - having a fantastic year and a quality player on the grass.  Seeded to play Djokovic in 4th round which is earlier than he'd like - an outside chance of an upset though.

Gasquet - on his day has a lovely grasscourt game, but has a real mental block progressing past 4th round (where he'd probably play Berdych).

Berdych - Lost early at Roland Garros but has a decent draw here.  A former finalist, Berdych has solid grasscourt credentials, but is seeded to play Djokovic in quarters, who he has a v poor record against.

Tomic - in Gasquet's quarter of the draw.  Tomic has had a poor year and his 1st round match is against Querrey, but the Aussie with his tricky slices, has done well here before.  If he can negotiate that 1st round against Querrey he could do well (though I don't see him beating Djokovic).

Ferrer - Ferrer's got a pretty nice draw and has played well at Wimbledon previously.  Seeded to play Djokovic in the semis - it'll be interesting to see how his run at Roland Garros affects him - will it fill him with confidence or will he have lost a bit of mental focus.

Raonic - Despite the big serve, hasn't exactly set the world alight in previous grasscourt appearances.  However, he's got a decent draw and he could be a danger to Ferrer who he could meet in quarters.

Kohlschreiber - More consistent than he used to be, the German did fairly well at Halle this year - seeded to play Raonic in 4th round.

Dmitrov - I like watching him play but I'm not jumping on the Dmitrov bandwagon just yet - too inconsistent and the media circus about his new high-profile girlfriend looks a further distraction.

Del Potro - What to make of the lanky Argentinian?  Grass is most definitely not his favourite surface but he had that Bronze medal at Olympics last year after that epic match with Federer and I remember him really pushing Nadal at Wimbledon a couple of years ago.  If he shows confidence in his net game he has a decent chance of making the semis. 

All in all then, yes Djokovic is a fairly strong favourite to reach the final, but watch out for the big guys, Berdych and Del Potro in his half of the draw.

Nice points, yes definetly all members of Djoko's half should fancy their chances of going atleast 1 sterp deep than normal, I sincerely hope Del Po makes use of this draw.

I think the only players I could see perhaps beating Novak from that list is Haas, Dimitrov and Berdych. I do feel for that to happen though Djokovic would need to have something of an off day or one of those to play to their full potential.

Actually I was struggling to pick players for the top half of the draw in TSJ's game. I have a funny feeling against Djokovic and I feel there's a Djokovic Djoker in this Wimbledon and the picking game. 

Then I went through the players involved in Ferrer's 1/8th and I was looking at it, thinking that this is horrible. There 2 players likely to take him down are probably Dodig and Kohlschreiber and they meet in the first round. I want to back Gasquet to do something, but then you wonder whether he can really do it write at the top. del Potro, did well at the Olympics, but coming back from time off, he didn't entirely impress, though Malisse and Hewitt are no fools on grass. Berdych I haven't been particularly impressed with this season, but then you look at the others in the bracket and left with the awful feeling. I don't think this guy will do well, but there's no one there I'd have any confidence in doing anything either.

I've pumped for a Haas final. We'll all laugh at me when it goes wrong, but that's what I'm leaning towards. Funny to think that BBC radio were feeling him up about work this time last year, then he won Halle, got a Wild Card and now he's up to 13th or so.

I have also picked this as Dimitrov's breakthrough at the slams, but we'll see.

Novak's least proficient surface is grass, although he has won wimbeldon so that tells you something about his pedigree, still I think he has the best draw he could hope for. Still it is no guarantor of results. There are still plenty of dangerous floaters who can put him out of this tournament if he doesn't bring his A game. Unfortunately I haven't seen him play that well since MC,  so he is still vulnerable, but with this draw there really isn't any excuses.

I think Novak winning Wimbledon it tells you more about how homogenised the surfaces are.

That yes, and also Nadal had a bad day, to gift the final to Djoko that year.

Anything less than a final appearance will be disappointing for Novak given this draw which is almost as good as Fed's at RG.

We need a new Rosol in Djokos half. Someone has to step in and give him a ala Nadal 2012 lesson.

Good article

I actually don't go along with those who say he's got it easy. It's lazy commenting

The problem is that there is a weight of expectation when playing these players and if they hit their 'A' game, all are capable of beating any of the Top 4 - I still shudder at what Kohlschreiber did to Murray two or three years ago and he has beaten Novak (admittedly on Clay)

I think Novak will make it to the final - but my be more beaten up than we think

I may be "doing a Red" here but I have a strong feeling that Novak won't make the final.

I think that the surface and Novak's patchy recent form means that it won't take a 'brilliant' performance to beat him. I think 'consistently good' from the likes of Ferrer, Haas, Berdych, Del Potro or perhaps Dimitrov may be enough to topple him.

If Novak plays near his best then I'd expect a relatively comfortable path to the final.

But it feels like I've been adding the "If Novak plays his best" caveat a lot in recent months!

HM. I admit I have an uneasy feeling about Novak, as though there is more to his ankle problem than meets the eye

Think he might be subconsciously be targeting the US Open / end of the year / staying No.1 (which he would do if he won the US)

Sorry I can't agree banbro. Novak's side of his game that has shown weakness is the mental side. Whereas he used to be great at closing out matches and winning matches he was expected to win that has been the case in the last two or three months. That is what I'd be more worried about if I were a fan of his.

So we agree CC!! We might have different reasons, but both feel Novak isn't quite himself

Craig, you're right, his record at serving out sets has been quite poor this year. Even in matches where he is comfortably ahead, he's often taken a couple attempts to do so (or sometimes he breaks straight back to win the set on a return game).

The big weakness is that, even in matches where he is playing well, he'll suddenly produce a terrible service game.

He was doing this at about this time last year too. Last year he generally dug himself out of trouble against everyone except Roger, Rafa and Andy. This year he is not getting away with it.

I don't see Ferrer or Haas as a threat to Djoko over 5 sets, but like any player, he could be vulnerable to a big hitter on grass.

Potentially he could be up against Berdych in the 1/4s and JMDP in the semis - those are genuine challenges, not to be underestimated.

banbrotam wrote:So we agree CC!! We might have different reasons, but both feel Novak isn't quite himself

Yes I would agree there but for different reasons. That is why I primarily see Rafael Nadal as THE big danger to Andy as Rafa does seem to be tuned in and hungry but a question mark still must hover in the background about two weeks of a slam off of clay on that knee - that is Rafa's worry.

JuliusHMarx wrote:I don't see Ferrer or Haas as a threat to Djoko over 5 sets, but like any player, he could be vulnerable to a big hitter on grass.

Potentially he could be up against Berdych in the 1/4s and JMDP in the semis - those are genuine challenges, not to be underestimated.

Ferrer is light years away from the other 4, let's face it.  His performance at the French Open really annoyed me.  No fight, no bottle, no weapon, no hope.  He was like a bus with square wheels.

banbrotam wrote:I actually don't go along with those who say he's got it easy. It's lazy commenting

No its not. When a top four player avoids his recent grass (or clay) banana skins of Federer, Murray and Nadal in his half of the draw then he has to be overwhelming odds on favourite to reach the final.
Yes he has a few decent players to potentially face but come on, none of the guys on his side can hold a candle to him over 5 sets in a slam, especially at the business end.

Lets repeat Djokovic's draw again...

R1 Florian Mayer (Djoko is 3-0 up, beat him in easy straights last year at Wimb)
R2 Reynolds or Johnson (who are they...one's played 40 ATP matches ranked 98, the other is ranked 154)
R3 Likely Chardy (0-6 in H2H with Djoko, never won a set...even if Harrison its similar 0-3, no sets)
R4 Haas...his main threat probably...but Haas is too old to succeed in a 5 set format against a guy who is in prime, a lot better than he was in 2009 and the conditions are even slower than then
QF Berdych...he wont wobble like Miami again when 6-3 5-2 up, again is a better player in general than last time they met on grass
SF DelPo/Dimi...2 guys that need to be on white hot form to have a chance, by this SF stage Djoko would be unstoppable in a big match for getting to the final.

Nothing is ever assured but I'd be gobsmacked if he isn't in the final a week on Sunday.

lydian wrote:

banbrotam wrote:I actually don't go along with those who say he's got it easy. It's lazy commenting

No its not. When a top four player avoids his recent grass (or clay) banana skins of Federer, Murray and Nadal in his half of the draw then he has to be overwhelming odds on favourite to reach the final.
Yes he has a few decent players to potentially face but come on, none of the guys on his side can hold a candle to him over 5 sets in a slam, especially at the business end.

Lets repeat Djokovic's draw again...

R1 Florian Mayer (Djoko is 3-0 up, beat him in easy straights last year at Wimb)
R2 Reynolds or Johnson (who are they...one's played 40 ATP matches ranked 98, the other is ranked 154)
R3 Likely Chardy (0-6 in H2H with Djoko, never won a set...even if Harrison its similar 0-3, no sets)
R4 Haas...his main threat probably...but Haas is too old to succeed in a 5 set format against a guy who is in prime, a lot better than he was in 2009 and the conditions are even slower than then
QF Berdych...he wont wobble like Miami again when 6-3 5-2 up, again is a better player in general than last time they met on grass
SF DelPo/Dimi...2 guys that need to be on white hot form to have a chance, by this SF stage Djoko would be unstoppable in a big match for getting to the final.

Nothing is ever assured but I'd be gobsmacked if he isn't in the final a week on Sunday.

Yes it would be a big surprise if he isn't in the final and on paper the only dangers to him would be Haas and Berdych. However, Novak has suffered some surprises of late such as losing to Dimitrov and throwing away a winning lead in the French Open against Nadal so weaknesses not there before are creeping in. If they resurface at Wimbledon then who knows? However, Novak at a consistently high level will reach the final but if not then who knows?

banbrotam wrote:HM. I admit I have an uneasy feeling about Novak, as though there is more to his ankle problem than meets the eye

Think he might be subconsciously be targeting the US Open / end of the year / staying No.1 (which he would do if he won the US)

I'm with you on that first sentence there. He rolled his ankle badly twice in a short space of time and hasn't had much recovery time in between tournaments to let it heal. If that's 100% I'm a chipmunk. I still think he'll reach the final though.

It is a bit easy, but theres still Berdy in his part, that wont be easy

Guess well see how he plays

It's an easier draw (factually by rankings alone it is).  He doesn't have to play Nadal, Murray or Federer until the final.  That's as easy as it is going to get at this level.  He still has to win it, and the final, if he reaches it, will be a very hard match more than likely, but to say it is just as hard as Fed's/Nadal's/Murray's (let's not forget tsonga) draw is just a bit silly.

true

I agree with many of the comments on here but I do think a few are bigging up Dmitrov too much - this is a player who's not gone past 3rd round of a slam!  I agree he's having a good year and I would expect him to improve on 3rd round, but the lack of match experience at business end of slam would really count against him were he to play Djokovic in semis.

I guess the last year final which could be this year semifinal could be the match of the tournament and the winner enjoying a dark horse run to the final like in FO, for some reasons the scripts are getting too predictable as it follows a set pattern.

Mr Invisible I do agree to a point, but in sport players don't usually have a linear progression to the top. They bubble along at a certain level for a period and then one tournament or something they suddenly make a larger jump.

Murray for instance hadn't reached a quarters till Wimbledon 08, two months later he was in the slam final. Sometimes you never know when they'll make that breakthrough

ryan86 wrote:Mr Invisible I do agree to a point, but in sport players don't usually have a linear progression to the top. They bubble along at a certain level for a period and then one tournament or something they suddenly make a larger jump.

Murray for instance hadn't reached a quarters till Wimbledon 08, two months later he was in the slam final. Sometimes you never know when they'll make that breakthrough

Make no mistake I still fancy Murray as the heavy favourite to win the title, it got easier with Rafa out.