of Baldy Nine Chins and Major records

Hi all,

just a small poll to gauge public opinion on the matter of Woods reaching Nicklaus' Major record. At this juncture, how likely do you think Tiger is to reach 18 Major victories?

Somewhat unlikely, tho this year's Majors set up really well for him:
Augusta, Pinehurst, Hoylake, Valhalla.

kwini do you know if Torrey pines is on the Major rota in the next 10 years? i'd imagine that would be a nailed on victory for him

Nae chance!  Aside from the fact he'll be well into his 39th year come the next major, I don't believe he will ever again be in full possession of what used to be the strongest weapon in his armoury ... his mental strength.  Plus, new generation players are not intimidated by him.

Torrey Pines? No.
I'd think Augusta is the key - if he can break thru there, anything is possible. If not, 19 will surely be very difficult.

HIghly Unlikely. He needs 5 to break the record and hasn't won one in 5 years plus has bottled quite a few since then.
Also, he's nearing 40, not many players win majors after that age, even fewer win multiple majors.
Next two years will be key.
Probably he will get one or two in the next 6 years or so, but given his pathetically weak body I think it's unlikely he'll make 5.

I'm predicting a Westood/Donald type ranking slide next year too.

As much as it bugs me too say so it won't happen now. There's too much scar tissue existent from his scandal and the two year dip in form. As the others have said he's also too old and does not have the mental edge he once had on the rest of the field. I thought the year just gone was the key year for him to win one and at stages I thought he might do at both the Masters and the open.

A shame In my opinion as Woods at his best was a greater golfer than Nicklaus at his best, however if he does not break the record then there will always be doubts as to whether he's the goat or not. I do believe however that he'll continue to be the best in the world for a number of years.

Unlikely, given the strength of filed these days v Jack's. Still, I suspect Tiger will give it obsessive effort.

With the possible exception those that have already won 4 majors... and maybe Rory and Adam Scott... I'd give every other player in the game today a "highly unlikely" at winning 4 majors in their career, much less in the next 10 years which is probably the max span TW has to get it done.   

But Tiger?  The jury's still out.   I know, I know... what are the chances of him have an "Ernie major career" to tie Jack or a "Phil major career" to pass Jack in the major count. For any one else his age, the answer would be NONE.  But we're not talking about anyone else.  We're talking about the guy who is probably #2 best of all time (#1 in some peoples book)  IMO the only VALID comparisons for Tiger are Nicklaus and Hogan.  And if Jack can win 4 and Hogan can win five from age 38 forward... then nobody can tell me Tiger can't do it.  

With the dramatic increase of depth of fields since Jack's day... I still give it a "somewhat unlikely"... and I'm guessing that will change to highly likely or highly unlikely after 2014.  IMO Kwini nailed it... 4 of what should be highly favorable venues for TW next year.  If he knocks down 1 or 2 next year... IMO he's going to at least 18... if he doesn't... it ain't happening.

Good summary Robo. Just have to sit back and see what plays out now...

from golfchannel.com:

"Golf.com recently polled 50 Tour pros under the protection of anonymity, with questions covering a wide range of topics tied to the game. The group was asked to predict the total number of majors Woods, who recently turned 38 years old, will add to his current haul of 14 trophies.

The votes broke down as follows: six percent believe Woods will never win another major, while two percent feel he will add a single title and 28 percent think he has two more majors left in the tank. Eighteen percent think he will win three more, which would leave him just shy of Nicklaus' mark, while 20 percent feel he will win four more to equal Nicklaus and 26 percent think he will eventually own the record outright, adding five or more majors before the end of his career."

Some other findings of the poll include:

"The players were also asked to assess the prospects of another player who recently celebrated a birthday, Sergio Garcia. Sixty percent believe the Spaniard, who turned 34 earlier this month, will win a major at some point in his career, while 38 percent feel he will remain winless in golf's four biggest events.

Other questions of note: 46 percent of players polled have not paid for a single round of golf since joining the PGA Tour, 64 percent have been hit on by a female fan during a round, and 38 percent would be "tempted" to try performance-enhancing drugs if they were legal."

That's a very good article you've dug up there inco.

So 94% think he will win more majors, it's just a case of how many. As Kwini and others say, 2014 is pivotal. The longer he goes without winning a major, the bigger the psychological burden becomes and the harder it gets. His imperious golf to win the WGC Bridgestone compared with his faltering final round at Muirfield spoke volumes about his state of mind.

I'd be miffed if I was a pro being asked questions about hypothetical situations and if my aunt had balls whether I'd call her uncle.
Haven't they got better things to ask?

Very interesting find ... thanks for sharing.

I wonder who the 36% are who deny having been "hit on by a female fan during a round"?
And wonder how many have been hit on by a male fan??

kwinigolfer wrote:I wonder who the 36% are who deny having been "hit on by a female fan during a round"?
And wonder how many have been hit on by a male fan??

Given how facially and physically challenged most golfers are it's amazing the figure is as high as 64%.

Wonder what they see in these fat, bald multi millionaires

Think you answered your own question Super ... they see millionaires!

I don't think groupies care much about looks super, it's probably more of a 'status' thing.

incontinentia wrote:I don't think groupies care much about looks super, it's probably more of a 'status' thing.

Exactly, look at Nine Chins, not exactly an oil painting. How sad would you have to be to be a golf groupie though, it's embarrassing enough to say you play the game let alone have someone wanting to sleep with you because of it.

Have none of you guys ever been hit on by a female fan during a round? Whenever I play golf, or watch it on the telly, there are LOADS of hot chicks all over the golf course. Beautiful women are drawn to golf and golfers like moths to a light. In fact I often have to use my clubs to fend them off. No wonder places like Muirfield have a men only policy in the clubhouse, its the only place they can escape the onslaught.

Actually.... seriously, I would be interested to hear if anyone has ever pulled on the golf course, or can recount a story?

Certainly for the women golfers out there, the odds must be stacked in your favour.

Look at Dufners missus for an example! And of course the lovely Debbie McGee!
Super, I'm sure those ugly fat lads are well embarrassed having to bone an ample supply of hotties. Probably the same problem ugly skinny lads in Aberdeen have...

raycastleunited wrote:Actually.... seriously, I would be interested to hear if anyone has ever pulled on the golf course, or can recount a story?

Certainly for the women golfers out there, the odds must be stacked in your favour.

I had to take relief from a used condom in the woods on our course before, so it seems someone is getting some action.

incontinentia wrote:

raycastleunited wrote:Actually.... seriously, I would be interested to hear if anyone has ever pulled on the golf course, or can recount a story?

Certainly for the women golfers out there, the odds must be stacked in your favour.

I had to take relief from a used condom in the woods on our course before, so it seems someone is getting some action.

Maybe someone just fancied a tropical w@nk.

I always feel sorry when I see someone dragging their girlfriend around the golf course, must be a miserable thing for them to endure.

I was looking for my ball in the woods once and found it a few feet away from some ladies underpants. They were pretty cute and well worn. I seem to remember a playing partner paraded them about on the the end of an iron. Not sure what happened to them, maybe went home in someone's bag.

Was listening to Five Live on my way home and there was an interview with Harrington and Monty. One question was about Tiger winning more majors. Paddy pointed out that he has been in contention in the last ten majors. More than any other player so should make a breakthrough. If it was any other player then you would be saying its a matter of when rather than if.

Monty was more along the lines of he still needs to get the same number of majors that Seve got to break Jack's record which is a big ask at his age.

They both agreed that he's been too conservative which worked when he was younger. But the level of competition has risen since he started and when he started he was 30 yards past everyone, now he's 30 yards behind the big boys and you can't play conservative from there. His ball speed was 190mph and is now 180 which is a big difference particularly as the ball was much softer then too.

Interesting interview as Paddy was also talking about the difference of being his age and experience compared to earlier in his career. Well worth trying to find as its goes a way to understanding the man for those of you who are fans. Even Monty came across as ok!

No chance he gets to 18.

To equal jack he needs to win 4 majors in what is left of his competitive career.  I assume that is about 4 years.  That means 4 out of the next 16 majors. A 25% win rate.

Let’s look at all the 4 year stretches in his career to see if this seems possible;

1997-2000:  5 wins, 31% of majors won by tiger
1998-2001: 6, 38%
1999-2002: 7, 44%
2000-2003: 6, 38%
2001-2004: 3, 19%
2002-2005: 4, 25%
2003-2006: 4, 25%
2004-2007: 5, 31%
2005-2008: 6, 38%
2006-2009: 4, 25%
2007-2010: 2, 13%
2008-2011: 1, 6%
2009-2012: 0, 0
2010-2013: 0, 0

So there is his career broken into 4 season chunks. It seems the 25% mark was only met in his prime.
What chunk best represents what we will see in the next 4 seasons?

For me it is the 2007-2010 seasons at best. So 2 more majors.

Highly likely

Tiger's stroke average in 2013 was better than most of the years in his prime years - both in terms of ranking and score.

I'd agree that he is past his absolute peak, but I think it's likely that he'll win several more majors yet. He's 38, so he has eight years before he gets to 46, Jack's age when he won his last major (there was a significant gap before his last, I know).

Finally, I don't think there is the quality of competition that Jack faced either. Mickelson excepted, I don't see many guys who you can rely on to compete hard in majors. McIlroy for example is as likely to take 85 as 65, and plenty of others who are similar.

That makes very interesting reading Mac. I agree with you that 2 majors is possible. I hope it doesn't happen, but he's too good, even now not to win another, mind you the sport is littered with players "too good" not to win a major and never have so who knows?

Time is certainly running out for 9C though and he does seem to have demonstrated hitherto unseen fragility in majors since his "return".

2014 will be massive for him as the major circuit couldn't be better placed for him, although if Hoylake is windy and bad weather you can probably count him out of that.

George - have to disagree with you on quality of competition. I think there is a much deeper pool of talent today than even 10 years ago.
I think the huge rewards now available to successful golfers means there are greater number of talented players who are prepared to work really hard to challenge for every tournament

George1507 wrote:Tiger's stroke average in 2013 was better than most of the years in his prime years - both in terms of ranking and score.

I wonder how much of that is to do with the degree to which he cherry picks the tournaments/venues he plays these days? He used to play a lot more than he does now. He's almost a part timer these days and tends to stick to where he knows his chances are best (or where someone pays him the most to turn up)

super_realist wrote:

George1507 wrote:Tiger's stroke average in 2013 was better than most of the years in his prime years - both in terms of ranking and score.

I wonder how much of that is to do with the degree to which he cherry picks the tournaments/venues  he plays these days? He used to play a lot more than he does now. He's almost a part timer these days and tends to stick to where he knows his chances are best (or where someone pays him the most to turn up)

"Part timer" - how dare you!
Independent contractor, and you know it.

super_realist wrote:

George1507 wrote:Tiger's stroke average in 2013 was better than most of the years in his prime years - both in terms of ranking and score.

I wonder how much of that is to do with the degree to which he cherry picks the tournaments/venues  he plays these days? He used to play a lot more than he does now. He's almost a part timer these days and tends to stick to where he knows his chances are best (or where someone pays him the most to turn up)

when he's on he can win anywhere, i.e. the Players last year.

incontinentia wrote:

super_realist wrote:

George1507 wrote:Tiger's stroke average in 2013 was better than most of the years in his prime years - both in terms of ranking and score.

I wonder how much of that is to do with the degree to which he cherry picks the tournaments/venues  he plays these days? He used to play a lot more than he does now. He's almost a part timer these days and tends to stick to where he knows his chances are best (or where someone pays him the most to turn up)

when he's on he can win anywhere, i.e. the Players last year.

Bit of a silly statement , you could say that about anyone.

raycastleunited wrote:George - have to disagree with you on quality of competition. I think there is a much deeper pool of talent today than even 10 years ago.
I think the huge rewards now available to successful golfers means there are greater number of talented players who are prepared to work really hard to challenge for every tournament

I agree that there are lot of good players these days, but very few great ones. Jack competed with the likes of Arnold Palmer, Peter Thomson, Gary Player, Tom Watson, Ballesteros, Norman et al. Mickelson excepted, I don't see anyone like that in 2014.

George1507 wrote:

raycastleunited wrote:George - have to disagree with you on quality of competition. I think there is a much deeper pool of talent today than even 10 years ago.
I think the huge rewards now available to successful golfers means there are greater number of talented players who are prepared to work really hard to challenge for every tournament

I agree that there are lot of good players these days, but very few great ones. Jack competed with the likes of Arnold Palmer, Peter Thomson, Gary Player, Tom Watson, Ballesteros, Norman et al. Mickelson excepted, I don't see anyone like that in 2014.

I think its fair to say that there is not a stand out but I would say that the depth of players capable of winning is greater so you are not playing against half a dozen top players and then a couple who may be on their week of a lifetime, you are probably playing against 50 players who could win and there will probably be half of them having a good week. I bet if you look at the odds given now compared to Jack's era that you will be a lot further down the field before you get the long odds.

The other problem for Tiger being so good is that others have been forced to raise their game to levels that they may not have achieved had they been born 20-30 years earlier.

George1507 wrote:

raycastleunited wrote:George - have to disagree with you on quality of competition. I think there is a much deeper pool of talent today than even 10 years ago.
I think the huge rewards now available to successful golfers means there are greater number of talented players who are prepared to work really hard to challenge for every tournament

I agree that there are lot of good players these days, but very few great ones. Jack competed with the likes of Arnold Palmer, Peter Thomson, Gary Player, Tom Watson, Ballesteros, Norman et al. Mickelson excepted, I don't see anyone like that in 2014.

You think Mickelson's a great?

George1507 wrote:

raycastleunited wrote:George - have to disagree with you on quality of competition. I think there is a much deeper pool of talent today than even 10 years ago.
I think the huge rewards now available to successful golfers means there are greater number of talented players who are prepared to work really hard to challenge for every tournament

I agree that there are lot of good players these days, but very few great ones. Jack competed with the likes of Arnold Palmer, Peter Thomson, Gary Player, Tom Watson, Ballesteros, Norman et al. Mickelson excepted, I don't see anyone like that in 2014.

I think there are a group of players like Els, Garcia, Scott, who would have a bag of majors if they were competing in the Nicklaus era, on the basis of their consistent ball striking and commitment to be the best they can possibly be. But I know it is very difficult to compare golfers from different eras as the courses and equipment have evolved so much.

The standard in professional sport is always improving. 20 years from now we'll look back at "average" Woods and say he didn't hit the ball very far.

Can Woods break the record for most chins or will he finish his career on 9?

Ernie does have a bagful of majors!

incontinentia wrote:Can Woods break the record for most chins or will he finish his career on 9?

Given the gargantuan girth of his late dad, he might well end up with more chins than majors

raycastleunited wrote:I think there are a group of players like Els, Garcia, Scott, who would have a bag of majors if they were competing in the Nicklaus era, on the basis of their consistent ball striking and commitment to be the best they can possibly be....

Els already has a pretty good bag. Garcia (much as I'd like him to win one) doesn't have the mental game now and he wouldn't have had it then either. Scott (pre-Augusta 2013) - see Garcia although he may go on to win more now.

super_realist wrote:

incontinentia wrote:Can Woods break the record for most chins or will he finish his career on 9?

Given the gargantuan girth of his late dad, he might well end up with more chins than majors

He might take after Consuela his mother.

Nae chance.  

super_realist wrote:Ernie does have a bagful of majors!

Four in about twenty years.

I know he's good, but I don't immediately think of him when the majors come round. I don't think many of his peers do either.

Harrington is 3 in about 20 years, Mickelson 5 in about 20 years. Much difference?

No, I spose not, but somehow I think Mickelson wins whereas Harrington and Els benefit from other people imploding.

http://uk.eurosport.yahoo.com/news/golf-woods-time-running-quest-beat-nicklaus-record-220418872--golf.html
Hmm maybe the mojo is gone??