Roger vs Rafa

First topic message reminder :

This topic has been done to death but what would a good tennis forum be without it?  I am sure we will all implode once the two of them retire.  So here is yet another incarnation.  The old man is less and less likely to hold his own against the young(er) rival in the here and now, and I wanted to spare him humiliation of being demolished, so I erased his age disadvantage.

That is, I looked at the slam chase between Rafa and Roger relative to their age - i.e., I graphed their slam count as the function of their age.  The result is here:



A few obseravions:

1. This one is competitive, Fed can still hold his own against Rafa when I give him five years back and let them duke it out with no age advantage given to either one.

2. Rafa started much younger, so was well ahead by the time Roger started collecting slams, but then Roger shot up in his twenties and by age 26 he overtook Rafa.

3. If Rafa wins here in Australia, he will once again inch ahead of Roger.

4. It looks like the chase for 17+ could be very competitive.  Roger was doing extremely well until 29 - so much so that Rafa is unlikely to be ahead of him at 29 - but dramatically slowed down thereafter, which could allow Rafa to reach the finish line ahead of Roger.

I personally think it is a close call at this point.  For most of their careers I thought Fed would end up ahead of Rafa, and even now I would probably still give him slightly better than 50/50 odds, but it is very close - Rafa could well end up at 18+.

wawrinka deserves his slam, but for a rafa fan as me, it was such a pitty that nadal lost that match, he was hot favourite, and the perspective of having at least 2 of each slam was.... I mean, I was almost seeing it already before the final, I couldnt imagine nadal wouldnt win that day.

other thing, regarding the rafa-roger race for more slams, and goat debate, I am more of the thought that there is not just one goat, but there are a handfull of players that really made the difference in their respective eras. but what I do think is rafa is now ahead of sampras.

they have the same number of slams, thats true, but rafa has won all 4 of them, and also look at the masters diference 27-11 (with 6 masters on hardcourts and 3 on clay)

naxroy wrote:other thing, regarding the rafa-roger race for more slams, and goat debate, I am more of the thought that there is not just one goat, but there are a handfull of players that really made the difference in their respective eras. but what I do think is rafa is now ahead of sampras.

they have the same number of slams, thats true, but rafa has won all 4 of them, and also look at the masters diference 27-11 (with 6 masters on hardcourts and 3 on clay)

GOAT debates do not have a fixed set of career statistics as a goal. This is used by fans, who tend to look differently at career achievements through their own subjectivity.

If Borg had not retired, if Laver did not play during the Pro-Am divide in the Pro circuit, if McEnroe had won at RG v Lendl, if Nadal did not have doctors, if Federer had stronger opposition in 2003-2005 on Grass and HC. Too many factors to account for.

Journalists can continue this till cows come home. Look at the 100m sprint or Bannister's magic mile. After Fedal retire, there may be Leo Federer who wins a CYGS or Djokovic Jr becomes #1 for 400 weeks.

Very tough to anoint a GOAT. I prefer Lydian's GOTE, which is what you are also referring to. They left a mark in the pages of History.

Did I mention Don Budge, even Laver was unable to repeat that feat, of holding six consecutive slams, from 1937 W to 1938 USO (including a CYGS)?

I look at GOAThood I think in all honesty if we are going by statistics which in most cases people do, then for me Navratilova takes some beating. More or less conquered singles, doubles, all surfaces. I guess the only glaring omission is Olympic Gold

BUT, IS DOUBLES THE SAME SPORT AT ALL?

It is in my book!

in that case anyway it seems emerson would have his say

His stats remarkable, but in general his stats don't touch Navratilova's.

I remember in the wimbledon final in 2007, roger when giving his speech, said he was happy to take as many trophies as he could at that time before rafa began to take them all.

well in the end rafa never took them all (not in a roger 2004-07 way), but year by year he is at least getting closer to an incredible record

since those words roger has won 6 more slams, rafa 11 more. so in a way roger saw it coming...
to be honest I always saw rafa as a multi slam winnner, but I never expected him to reach double figures
that day one could hope rafa would eventually win in london, but it seemed impossible that he could win on hardcourt slams where the best he had done to that date was quarterfinals in both australia and new york.