ATP points preview Austrailian Open 2014

Since no one has done this yet, I thought I would (based on a table by summerblues).
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New	Old	Name	Old	Dropped	Gained	New	Move
1	1	Nadal	13,130	0	1200	14,330
2	2	Djokovic	12,260	2000	360	10,620
3	8	Wawrinka	3,890	180	2000	5,710	+5
4	5	Del Potro	5,415	90	45	5,370	+1
5	3	Ferrer	5,640	720	360	5,280	-2
6	4	Murray	5,560	1,200	360	4,720	-2
7	7	Berdych	4,180	360	720	4,540
8	6	Federer	4,355	720	720	4,355	-2

With 7 of the top 8 seeds still playing (as of R4 and now QF) there is alot of movement possible outside the top two (who are locked in). I'll stick to some of the easier possibilities.

Ferrer needs to make the SF to overtake Del Potro (and will keep 3rd position unless Murray W).

Murray needs to make the F to overtake Del Potro (and keep a top 4 position).  

Berdych/Wawrinka/Federer needs the W to overtake Del Potro (would also move them into top 4)

Since they could play in the QF: If Federer makes the F, he overtakes Murray.

Update after first two QFs. Still no movement, but we will get some after the SFs. Less than 1000 points separates 3rd from 7th. Del Potro looking more likely to break into top 4 (he would need a Murray F and Berdych/Wawrinka W to fall to 5th).

Update after the second QFs. So Murray will fall to 6th after being overtaken by the winner of Berdych/Wawrinka (who will take 5th), and 7th if Federer makes the final. Del Potro is now guaranteed at least 4th.

Update after the first SF. Wawrinka up to 5th. Murray down to 6th.

Update after the final. Wawrinka up five places to 3rd. Del Potro up into the top 4. Ferrer and Murray out of the top 4. It will be interesting to see if Wawrinka and Del Potro now get easier draws. Federer also drops despite defending his SF points, but won't matter for seeding.

Thanks, Z. (and SB).

Great!    

Thanks Zaron and SB

A big opportunity missed for JMDP, you have to say, but it looks likely that he'll crack the top 4 once again. Perhaps even #3 - he'll be cheering Berdych on tomorrow!

If Federer loses his q/f match would it be the first time that Stan would be the Swiss number 1?

federer murray 9-11
berdych - ferrer 4-7
nadal dimitrov 3-0
djokovic - stan 15-2

BTW - all thanks for the table go to zaron - I am guessing he just started from one of my old tables for formatting, but I had zilch involvement in the creation of his table.

Rafa and Nole are guaranteed to stay #1 and #2 after the AO, but there is fair room for reshuffle behind them.  Here is the ranking range where each of the players can still land after Sunday (for example, Andy can be as high as #3, or as low as #7):

Ferrer: 3-6
Andy: 3-7
DelPo: 3-6
Roger: 3-8
Berdych: 3-8
Stan: 3-8
Dimi: 9-19

Even if Nadal loses tomorrow he now has roughly a 3,000 point lead over Djokovic.

Thanks for the update, zaron.

So Murray will finish 6th or 7th after this. That's rough. Federer will get to 6th if he beats Nadal

It feels rough but, in fairness, it's not just due to time out in the autumn but also the poor results over the clay swing and the US Open swing. Hopefully if the back feels fine, he can play a fuller schedule this year and make up points in the ATP250 & 500's as well as the Masters and get back to top 4.  

Last year, it felt like Del Potro deserved his spot in the top 4, but acheiving it by losing in R2 just feels odd!

Pretty harsh on both Murray and Federer to (probably) drop to 6th and 8th respectively given the match today, but they both have big opportunities to pick up points at various stages of the year.

The rankings are so strange at the moment. Federer could beat Tsonga, murray and Nadal and drop in the rankings. Thats why being outside the top four can have a spiral effect

Nice to see that the movement of Wawrinka and Berdych is down to their winning points on last year's performance, and not to Fed losing any.

I think this australian open has been crucial for the unmber 1 ranking in 2014

nadal defends 7000 points from now till the end of roland garros
djokovic defends 2360 in the same period

but even so, before hand it seemed impossible for nadal to keep the throne, but now if he manages to get to get to semis or finals in all tournamens (he is likely to do so) he has this extra 3000 points to prevent djokovic to take the number one before wimbledon, and there nadal has more to gain.

after that it is almost sure that nadal will lose his status as theres no way he will win canada, cincinatti and usopen again

nadal needs to defend as many points as possible...but he can only win points in miami (1000) and montecarlo (400)
so his best chance is to win australia and then lets say do at least semis and final in north america, win at least one clay master, and make finals in the others, and win barcelona and get to the final in paris. if he does this and nole doesnt win everything, he can get to london as number one. these are good results but realistic

So Murray will drop to 6 at least and possibly 7th after the Australian Open. Federer could drop to 8th. Del Potro looking likely to be 3rd after the Australian Open.

I'm not sure it makes sense to forecast who will be number one by the end of the Us Open. That's most of the years tournaments

well I was mainly talking about the pre roland garros part of the year

Nore Staat wrote:So Murray will drop to 6 at least and possibly 7th after the Australian Open.  Federer could drop to 8th.  Del Potro looking likely to be 3rd after the Australian Open.

Normally I'd be bothered but it means the top four presents Murray a 50-50 chance off a quarter draw I would expect him to win ie perhaps Del Potro or Ferrer. Besides a drop out of the top four was virtually guaranteed pre tournament due to circumstances so it isn't like it has come like a bolt from the blue. I would expect Andy to retake his place in the top four before the end of the year.

I'd expect Andy to retake that place before Queens. He must have no more than about 1500 points to defend

nadal had it almost impossible to hold that number 1 spot through the clay season... but now he might do it...still he will need loads of points as he is defending 7000 from now to jun

naxroy. Even if Nadal doesn't win on Sunday he will have in excess of 14,000 points and if he does win more than 15,000 points! Even if he didn't play between now and June he would have 7/8,000 points going into Wimbledon with nothing to defend. Anyway whatever happens in the future it's always a great thing to have lots of points to defend... the more the better   

If Nadal does win on Sunday and pass the 15,000 point mark I wonder if he will be the first player to do this? If so he may not be able to claim the most weeks at number one but there would be an argument that he is the most dominant number one.

HE, obviously his point total is not the most dominant. Even a quick eyeball says it cannot be - he will have 3 slams but a blow up in the fourth, and he did lose fair number of matches in the tail end of the season.

Had a quick look at Wikipedia - it claims that, for example, Fed had 8,370 points at 2006 YE. Back then slams were worth 1,000 points so you need to roughly double that - so 16,000+.

I know you like Rafa and he is obviously pretty good but his road to superstardom is not so much through absolute dominance but more through long-term consistency - e.g., he will have won slams in more consecutive years than anyone else, as far as I know. It is kind of funny in a way, because longevity is the one thing that many people initially thought he would not have.

summerblues. I know that points were "roughly" doubled. Is there a way to find out what the comparable highest total was? Not roughly but a breakdown including all events. It would be interesting to know what the top rankings total is.

Wow! Have just checked Feds 2006 results. They are amazing.

I do not know whether one can easily figure out what the highest total was but it would be easy to convert any specific total, e.g., Fed's 2006 YE. It will be somewhat less than 2 x 8,370 because the ATP not only doubled the winners totals since then, but also reduced the points for F, SF, QF etc so while for example Fed got I believe 700 points for his RG F in 2006, 2013 equivalent would be 1,200, so not quite double that.

It is 3am here and I am just about going to sleep now but will have a look tomorrow. But, as I said, it is pretty clear that Rafa's total - as good as it is - will not be the highest it has ever been.

If I remember it correctly Fed only lost once earlier than in the final in 2006 - to a British player as it happens. But, as usual, he did quite poorly against Rafa - albeit all in the finals.

summerblues wrote:If I remember it correctly Fed only lost once earlier than in the final in 2006 - to a British player as it happens.  But, as usual, he did quite poorly against Rafa - albeit all in the finals.

Yeah. Actually that year tells us a lot about Federer / Nadal. Rafa was obviously nowhere near as good a player as a Roger that year, reaching only two finals away from clay, yet he dominated the h2h 4-1 in a stellar Federer year.

It's probably the best illustration of the match up issue: while Rafa was being beaten routinely by the players who could give Roger a game, he struggled against Nadal.

Stan will be No:3 tomorrow!

HE:

I tried to convert Fed's 2006 points to a current equivalent.  I get 15,760 points.

There is some ambiguity in the points conversion - especially as it relates to Doha and Halle.  These are currently both 250 point tournaments, so I gave Roger 250 "2014 equivalent" points for each.  However, in 2006 Doha was a 250 point tournament (equivalent of a current 500 point tournament) and Halle was a 225 point tournament (somewhere between a current 250 and 500 tournament).  Arguably, one should convert the points based on how big the tournament was then - in which case I would give Roger maybe 500+450 "2014 equivalent" points for these tourneys instead of 250+250.

This way, I would get 16,210 as the current equivalent.

It is not that easy for me to find out what the absolute maximum ever achieved was but I think Fed's 2006 YE will be pretty close to that - that was his best year-end number.

bogbrush wrote:Yeah. Actually that year tells us a lot about Federer / Nadal. Rafa was obviously nowhere near as good a player as a Roger that year, reaching only two finals away from clay, yet he dominated the h2h 4-1 in a stellar Federer year.

Agree with this - especially their HC encounters back then (in 2005 and 2006) give a glimpse of the magnitude of the match-up problem.  Maybe not so much clay - on clay Rafa was already insanely good back then.

no matter how great roger is... in the end that 23-10 will cost him some doubts to his goat status.

Can we not have the GOAT debate on every thread  

coming back to points:
with the points differece he built in ausopen nadal needs justo to do an average spring season to get to wimbledon aa number 1. lets say winning barcelona, two of the clay masers, making semis in miami and california and reaching final in paris. with that he might do it

Nadal is now 119 weeks and counting...so just 183 weeks to catch Federer, lol.
That'll be by July 2017 then when he'd be 31.
Hard to see him beating McEnroe on 170 first!
Anything up above 200 will be very decent, and his time as top 2 rank will be huge.

naxroy wrote:coming back to points:
with the points differece he built in ausopen nadal needs justo to do an average spring season to get to wimbledon aa number 1. lets say winning barcelona, two of the clay masers, making semis in miami and california and reaching final in paris. with that he might do it

I agree.  Going into the AO I was thinking Nole had a very good chance to overhaul Rafa by the end of the USO at the latest.  Nole collected about 2,000 more points than Nadal after the AO and was coming here with what looked like excellent HC form.  So, if anything, I was expecting he might extend the 2,000 point lead and then would just need to stay close-ish to Rafa from here through the USO - not a given, but I thought it would be quite doable.

But now it looks like Rafa will get back that 2,000 point lead that Nole had post-USO.  So he will have stayed even with Nole through this HC stretch which means Nole might have to try to outdo Rafa on clay, but that is going to be very hard indeed.

Do we think that Federer and Murray will make a mad charge up the rankings over the next few months? I can see it happening, as both had a pretty week post-AO last year, Murray's Miami win excepted.

Really, the door is completely ajar at the moment for the #3 spot. I can't remember it being this susceptible to change for a long time.

Murray, yes, top 4 before too long, then will go higher over time (assuming full fitness). Federer, no, I doubt he'll be top 4 again.

Silver wrote:Do we think that Federer and Murray will make a mad charge up the rankings over the next few months? I can see it happening, as both had a pretty week post-AO last year, Murray's Miami win excepted.

Really, the door is completely ajar at the moment for the #3 spot. I can't remember it being this susceptible to change for a long time.

It all depends how much Murray bothers with the clay season. He has to defend a QF/SF and W at IW and Mi and then it's clay, after that it's Queen's and W. Post-Wimbledon is where he will make a charge up the rankings but until then it's probably between DelPo/Ferrer/Wawrinka, and Stan's got a Masters F to defend on clay so it might be DelPo's chance to shine.

summerblues wrote:HE:

I tried to convert Fed's 2006 points to a current equivalent.  I get 15,760 points.

There is some ambiguity in the points conversion - especially as it relates to Doha and Halle.  These are currently both 250 point tournaments, so I gave Roger 250 "2014 equivalent" points for each.  However, in 2006 Doha was a 250 point tournament (equivalent of a current 500 point tournament) and Halle was a 225 point tournament (somewhere between a current 250 and 500 tournament).  Arguably, one should convert the points based on how big the tournament was then - in which case I would give Roger maybe 500+450 "2014 equivalent" points for these tourneys instead of 250+250.

This way, I would get 16,210 as the current equivalent.

It is not that easy for me to find out what the absolute maximum ever achieved was but I think Fed's 2006 YE will be pretty close to that - that was his best year-end number.

Thanks for that summerblues   What a shame things were changed in such a way that direct comparisons cannot be made. Federer had an amazing year in 2006. Rafa has done well to get so close considering his early loss at Wimbledon.

JuliusHMarx wrote:Murray, yes, top 4 before too long, then will go higher over time (assuming full fitness). Federer, no, I doubt he'll be top 4 again.

Julius. This is a large assumption, because there are too many variables and unknowns to justify it. Thus to make that assumption is illogical and lazy.
I don't expect anyone to be diligent enough to consider all the variables and unknowns, so it's not lazy to not do that, but it is lazy to make the assumption without doing it.  

hawkeye wrote:What a shame things were changed in such a way that direct comparisons cannot be made. Federer had an amazing year in 2006. Rafa has done well to get so close considering his early loss at Wimbledon.

Yeah, agree with all that.  It is nice to be able to make direct comparisons.  It may be a long shot, but Rafa has a chance to perhaps come close to or even surpass Fed's total after this Wimbledon - assuming his clay court season is as good as usual, his Wimbledon is better than last year, and he will also need to play well between the AO and Monte Carlo.  Obviously, we are getting ahead of ourselves, but it is not totally outside of realm of possibilities.

With regards to Nadal's ranking points.

He's defending:
Vina del Mara (F) 150 points
São Paulo (W) 250 points
Acapulco (W) 500 points.

Is he playing these events this year?

Otherwise that's 900 points eroded from his lead over Djokovic.

Considering djoko lost like close to 1500 points at Aus, it won't be much of a setback.

I think he is playing in rio which is 500
and if he doesnt play acapulco he would play dubai in that same week. so I dont think he will loose those 900 he might loose some, but not all

naxroy wrote:I think he is playing in rio which is 500
and if he doesnt play acapulco he would play dubai in that same week. so I dont think he will loose those 900 he might loose some, but not all

Thanks.

So top 4 are: Nadal, Djokovic, Wawrinka, Del Potro and next 4: Ferrer, Murray, Berdych, Federer.

Does that make for more balanced draws than we've been seeing for a while?

How far is Fed from dropping out the top 8?

Fed has 4355 points, Gasquet 3050, Tsonga 2885.

I don't think Fed has much to defend until Rome.