PGA Tour: The Masters: Will a European Win for Once?: Notes from the Ballwasher

1).Well, the Aussie DID rule and this sudden burst of relevance from the land Down Under is getting rather tiresome. Or at least, the US Media pointing out, quite accurately of course, that the Tour scoreboard this season so far reads:
US: 17
Australia: 4
Rest of the World: 0
And it's not much different in Augusta, this century at any rate:
US: 8
Europe: 0
Rest of the World: 6
 
2).This year, the Masters runners and riders look like this:
US: 44
Europe: 29
Rest of the World: 24
The Rest of the World have plenty of quality to make up for the lack of quantity, whereas the Europeans, like the Americans, have more than their fair share of dead wood and dead beats. Let's look at the Europeans and see if they can finally win a Green Jacket or whether the conspiracy that began when Germany, Spain and GB dominated - introducing rough for a start, lengthening the course for a second - can finally be put to rest.
 
3).England:
Fitzpatrick and Porteous are living a dream just being there.
Luke Donald has to be at his very best, a la Zach Johnson, to win here, and Zach Johnson outlukes Luke these days.
Poulter's ADD won't allow him to make the cut in a regular stroke-play event. If he gets in contention, he'll wobble like one of Thatcher's wets.
Lynn has lost whatever it is he had for a brilliant 15-month spell: No chance.
Rose may have had a bad shoulder but his putter looked even sicker in Tampa and Bay Hill. Perhaps a rest has done it good, but can't see it. Ain't gonna happen, not this year anyway.
Westwood has lost it: All the facets of his game that are traditionally strong have been average at best. All his usual weaknesses are still weak. Great recent record at Augusta, four Top 11's in his last four trips, but can't see better than 11th this time around.
 
4).Wales, Scotland and Ireland:
Woosie and Lyle are just having a larf; must be odds on both will miss the cut, tho' Lyle has played well in recent fits and some starts.
Donaldson has played really well this year, became only the 5th man to register a hole-in-one at Augusta's 6th hole last year, and it would be no surprise to see a Top Ten finish. Can't see him in the final shake-up though.
Gallacher: First-timer, but manages his game well enough to make the cut - a Top 20 finish would be a terrific result.
Harrington: Didn't qualify due to cramp in his finger. (True)
 
5).France, Germany, Holland:
Dubuisson and Luiten: Two "rookies" who could make a splash in the early rounds, but not on the weekend.
Kaymer: Oh Martin! You changed your swing to better suit Augusta and now it doesn't work anywhere.
Langer: What a story that was last year when he contended during the early rounds before fading on Sunday. Bernhard may well win a Major this year - but only on the Senior Circuit.
 
6).Northern Ireland, Sweden, Denmark:
Clarke wasn't fit enough to contend here when he was one of the World's best. Ceremonial appearance.
McDowell: Six appearances and four missed cuts. I'd think a Top Ten would be a very good result.
McIlroy: Could win by a dozen, or just file another middle-of-the-pack finish. Don't see much in between.
Blixt: Only played 2 Majors, 26th at Muirfield, 4th at Oak Hill. 1st at Augusta? Don't see it, but his brilliant short game could have him contending here one day.
Hanson: Injured much of last year but I've a hunch he's a live outsider. Too good a golfer to be down too much longer.
Stenson: Not a great record here, but 7 x Top Tens in the other Majors these past 6 years. Time to step up from Match Play Champion, Players Champion and FedEx Champion? I'd say he has a very good chance, and we know he's not scared to win.
Olesen: In terrible form but still only 24. 6th on his Masters debut last year, but can't win playing the way he is now.
Bjorn: Plenty of Major heartbreak for Thomas, but never played well here. Top 20 would be a good result.
 
7).Spain, Italy:
Olazabal: There was a time when his short game could bail him out here, but no longer. Sadly.
Gonzo: Seems out of sorts. Has the ability but not the form. 20th last year, and not likely to improve.
Miguel-Angel: Played so well at Doral until the 72nd hole - 5 x Top 12's here and don't rule out a 6th.
Garcia: Great each-way chance but don't see him winning. Putting like he's 19 but he's destined to be a very, very good nearly man, at Augusta at least.
Fran Molinari: Not a great record in the States. Would love to see him in the mix but no form to suggest it will be this year.
Matteo: Augusta may be too long for him right now and he's not putting his best. Top 30?
 
8).So that's how it looks after a couple of bottles of Malbec. My top three Europeans are probably everyone else's top three: Stenson and Garcia with a hope that the stars might align for McIlroy to redeem himself for past disappointment. Best outsiders Peter Hanson and Jamie Donaldson.
 
9).Who else do I like? Mickelson of course! Dufner and Kuchar of the other Americans with Billy Horschel a live outsider.
Always fancy this crop of South Africans to pull out a Masters win - Immelman, Oosthuizen and Schwartzel could all play well this week; sad that Els probably feels the Green Jacket has slipped away.
And then there's El Pato. 6 top tens here and who'd bet against another one?
 
10).But let's go for a European win. Stenson!
 
10a).And let's hope JAS completes his London Marathon in good enough shape to enjoy the coverage!

Good write up as always Kwini.

I agree, I think the only 3 Europeans with a chance are Stenson, Rory & Sergio. That is where some of my cash will be going anyway.

Cant wait for it to start.

Other than McIlroy this is the state of UK and Irish golf in terms of OWGR rankings
;

8. Justin Rose
14. G mac
20. Poulter
27. Donald
37. Westwood
38. Gallacher
66. lyn
72. Fisher
94. Wood
100. Casey

Not sure this inspires confidence for this or any other major in the next year or so. Would it be a surprise if the all have year end rankings lower than year start rankings?

How do the rankings of the last dozen or so major winners (at the time they won) compare to the rankings of the UK players?

PS: Happy Birthday Seve. 57 today.

I love the Masters. Have not got a clue who will win though. I was watching an old film the other day, showing the 1995 Masters and Ben Crenshaw winning. It meant absolutely nothing to me, but i do remember the 1996 Masters, So i must have been 16 when i first got an interest in golf.

Not sure why Mac leaves McIlroy out of his list of top British golfers - he's down to #9, ranked just behind Justin Rose.

It seems there's a kerfuffle with Matt Fitzpatrick's caddie, with the Masters Committee telling him he can't walk the course in the sandals he wears because he has a problem with his feet. Whatever next? (A new caddie apparently.)

Don't imagine Steve Williams or Joe LaCava would suffer quite the same indignity.

kwini

Include him if you want, does it change my prediction that all the UK and irish players starting in the top 100 this year will finish in a lower ranking?

Don't know, but I somehow doubt you'll be right on that. Not looking good right now though.

A much better prediction is that we should have a fine week remaining for Masters action following soaking rains on Monday which have presumably been subaired away.

Tuesday was dry and the forecast going forward suggests fine weather every day, with highs slowly warming thru the 70's to an 80-degree weekend and breezes about 10 mph.

Agree with Sand and ben, Can't wait!

Good read Kwini.

Way to harsh on the English lads though.

One will come through.. Its gonna happen

beninho wrote:I love the Masters. Have not got a clue who will win though. I was watching an old film the other day, showing the 1995 Masters and Ben Crenshaw winning. It meant absolutely nothing to me, but i do remember the 1996 Masters, So i must have been 16 when i first got an interest in golf.

Oh Ben lad- You missed out on the norman*, faldo, seve , woosie, Oly classics

Despite putting Europeans in my fantasy team I know that this is more through patriotism than realism. As said before there is no real standout so the odds are that someone will have a big week but I can see the top 20 being a reasonable reflection of the winners on the USPGA this year. As for the order, follow the same selection technique as the French rugby coach - throw the names in the air and see which position they land.

Doesn't stop me looking forward to the Masters.

I say Golf World last night and they did a piece on Fitzpatrick. His caddie at the US Amateur was his brother who looked younger than he does.

Kwini - do you think that the Masters committee have a tendency to go for the younger, easier to punish players? As with the young Chinese player being done for slow play last year when you could pick at least 50% of the seasoned pros who were just as bad or worse.

"Despite putting Europeans in my fantasy team I know that this is more through patriotism than realism"


Its both!!

289,
Wouldn't be surprised; you can only see the way they brushed the "drop heard round the world" under the table last year until David Eger called them on it.
Perhaps a metaphor for a particular part of the American South?

Good write up as usual Kwini. I did detect a slight Malbec influence in there though   ...

Hi Kwini, great notes as always!

Needless to say I cant wait for the action to start. All this pre tourny drive, chip and putt, par 3 contest just makes things worse!

I said post masters last year the event was saved by Adam and Angel with their last half hour salvo, which was so good it was my favourite golfing moment all year. And I'm a Phil Mickelson fan. Lets hope there are no 'distractions' this year...

Was looking at some alternative markets last night. Mickelson and Day about evens for a top 10 finish; Lynn is 16/1 for top englishman (how is Rose's back?); and English was 7/1 top debutant. Not bad value I reckon...

Cheers!

Decent odds on Lynn form wise..

Westy will win though. My 70/1 is coming home.

Class is pemininant , form is tempoary .he has left 60 shots out there last 4 years and still 4 top 11's

Its going to all click into place .

Westwood will not win this or any other Major

 
 
Cheers chaps!
 
Great last year that two such good guys were duelling, even better to see how happy Leishman and Cabrera were for Adam Scott.
No complaints here if Cabrera were to turn the tables this year.
 
Just a note about last week's winner, Matt Jones.
I've followed him a couple of times, largely because of his gorgeous golf swing. But at last year's PGA one was struck by how many of the top players were having a laugh and a joke with him, presumably a legacy of friendships built on the Nationwide Tour. Good to see and happy that he's having a chance in the limelight.

incontinentia wrote:Westwood will not win this or any other Major

easy to say mate.

But you will be eating your words..

Some heart-warming pic's of Seve in celebration of his 57th . . . .

http://www.golfchannel.com/news/grill-room/remembering-seve-ballesteros-birthday/

Legend.

My favourite golfer to watch as a child live.

But I do blame him for snapping about 40 shafts around trees from woods and never caring about driving straight!!

But I did end up playing some pretty outstanding sevesque escape shots.. Probably not worth the re shafting costs mind!!

mystiroakey wrote:

incontinentia wrote:Westwood will not win this or any other Major

easy to say mate.

But you will be eating your words..

he hasn't the bottle for it, end of.

I am not getting into this to much - because its nonsense- many major winners have just fluked it. bottle had nothing to do with it. However what he has is talent. and talent beyond any critic of him has.

Come on Lee.

Does the beautiful golf course, the challenge to the players, the first major of the season, of The Masters outweigh the elitism, possible sexism and racism of the club?

Elitism, possible sexism and racism, is just part of golf isnt it? If you like the game you hold your nose.

What Elitism?

Go Luiten! I am predicting a top 10 spot for him at the end of the tourney.

super_realist wrote:What Elitism?

So anyone can stroll up for a game there?

No, but that's not necessarily a bad thing, I can't stroll up to your house, let myself in and have tea and biscuits.
Something being private isn't always a bad thing and it isn't necessarily elitism.

Don't know if anyone is on to it but there are a few tastey odds on just leading after day 1

http://www.oddschecker.com/golf/the-masters/first-round-leader

Going to bang 5 x £2 wins on a few off the decent ones.

Gota to have £2 on both Els and Couples

Good luck Soldier!
UK prices understandably suggest European golfers have a better chance than perhaps is realistic.
But Billy Horschel and Ryan Moore look very good value.
Interesting book without Tiger being there to help make others better value!

themightyone wrote:Go Luiten! I am predicting a top 10 spot for him at the end of the tourney.

I put 4 quid on him at 400/1!

fingers crossed!

kwinigolfer wrote:Good luck Soldier!
UK prices understandably suggest European golfers have a better chance than perhaps is realistic.
But Billy Horschel and Ryan Moore look very good value.
Interesting book without Tiger being there to help make others  better value!

I backed all mine on the exchange before tiogers withdrawel. as soon as Tiger was out- everyones odds went down 10%.

The european odds are long- very long still tbh. Never been so long- However there is justification for that of course- not in the best form!!

Through experience I think there is decent value for players up to and including 150/1, I've not had much success outside that range at The Masters (though I have at other majors)
I tend to do well on Saffa's and also on a random Scandinavian as each ways and though I haven't tended to be lucky enough to pick them, there's usually a no mark American doing well too, though given this year it will be even harder, as there seems to be tons of them. Perhaps I'll choose the one with the most stupid name.

Picking a winner is always hard when you look at recent winners and the odds they carried.

I allways lay them off- pick a few high odds and a few medium and you will make your money back unless it goes totally t!ts up.

Phil had some eyebrows raised yesterday when he talked about the make-up of his bag for Augusta National:
"For the past six or seven years (at) this tournament, I have not had a shot between 90 and 130 yards. So I have a 40-yard gap there. I take out my sand wedge and my gap wedge because I don't ever need them and it allows me to put in two special clubs."

He's apparently adding a 64-degree wedge but doesn't know what the 14th club will be this year!
Phil's always thinking. Is that a good thing??!!

never needed that gap!!

crazy skillz to be that constant on yardage control

One of the Golf Channel guys felt he should include a right-handed club . . . . . . .

  Wonderful article Kwini, and Masters week can begin...............

My ew bets, FWIW : are: DJ (25), Duff (40), Olesen (125) & Horschel (150).

I'm intrigued re: Harrington......."cramp in his finger"???

Thinking about 3 from 5 DJ/Dufner/ Moore Kaymer/Horschel

Brilliant article btw!


Off work for the Masters!

Hi John,
Apparently when Harrington was playing his 14th hole last Friday he jammed the club into the ground. His finger numbed up and, during medical treatment which caused the Mickelson group to play through, his injury was diagnosed as cramp in the middle finger.
He then bogeyed his next hole, par, bogey and, from memory, triple bogey finish to miss the cut comprehensively. Only Padraig.

Cheers sirb,
Hope you'll be wearing Tim Herron-type "outfits" for the week:

https://twitter.com/PGALumpy

Enjoy!

Haha I saw that very funny!

Really debating DJ vs Dufner, who would you pick people? haha!

Haha I saw that very funny!

Really debating DJ vs Dufner, who would you pick people? haha!

Anyone watching the par 3 coverage on Sky? I swear I just heard Tom Watson say "that's unnormal"

Reminded me of Ralph Wiggum off the Simpsons .. "Me fail English? That's unpossible!"

What an ass.

http://deadspin.com/gary-player-tells-story-about-arnold-palmer-taking-a-sh-1561357286/+bubbaprog

Yawn Mac.

WTF? Surely poop is saffer for something other than sh1t?

It's the most fun you'll ever hear on a US golf broadcast though.