Aviva Premiership - Round 21

Fri 2nd May 14

19:45 Bath Rugby  v   Northampton Saints Recreation Ground BT Sport

Sat 3rd May 14

15:00 Gloucester Rugby  v   London Irish Kingsholm
15:00 London Wasps  v   Newcastle Falcons Adams Park
15:00 Saracens  v   Worcester Warriors Allianz Park
15:15 Sale Sharks  v   Leicester Tigers AJ Bell Stadium BT Sport

Sun 4th May 14

14:00 Exeter Chiefs  v   Harlequins Sandy Park BT Sport



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Pos	Team	Played	Won	Drawn	Lost	For	Against	Tries For	Tries Against	Try bonus	Losing bonus	Points
1	Saracens	20	18	0	2	558	302	58	32	8	0	80
2	Northampton Saints	20	15	1	4	511	318	60	28	6	3	71
3	Bath Rugby	20	14	1	5	460	350	46	36	4	2	64
4	Leicester Tigers	20	13	2	5	469	381	49	34	5	3	64
5	Harlequins	20	13	0	7	388	320	38	30	3	3	58
6	Sale Sharks	20	12	0	8	390	335	41	31	3	5	56
7	London Wasps	20	8	0	12	394	421	40	40	3	9	44
8	Exeter Chiefs	20	8	0	12	374	437	35	46	2	6	40
9	Gloucester Rugby	20	7	0	13	375	481	37	53	2	7	37
10	London Irish	20	6	0	14	344	438	33	42	1	6	31
11	Newcastle Falcons	20	3	0	17	230	477	17	53	1	7	20
12	Worcester Warriors	20	1	0	19	277	510	25	54	1	7	12

Can't see us doing Saints on a Friday to be honest, at best we might get a LBP.   

Bath v Northampton

Matthew Carley in only his 14th Premiership match with the whistle gets the rounds biggest fixture. We can expect a tough physical battle and this fledgling ref will be under pressure. Victory for the visitors would guarantee a home semi-final, while victory fro Bath would see them in the playoffs for the first time in quite some while.

Bath will hope to be able to bring back props James and Wilson to the side that beat Wasps. Matt Garvey left that game hopping round the pitch like a mad man and may not feature.
Northampton, who will face Bath in the Amlin final, have lost their last two away fixtures. They too rested players for their Amlin semi final and we should see Lawes, Wood, Burrell and Foden restored to the starting XV.

Saints can steam roller sides unable to face up to them physically, but in Bath they could well be meeting their physical match. Expect Wood and Lawes to put some real pressure on a shaky Bath lineout and Saints to send the powere runners like Burrell and North at the Ford channel.

unless Louw is back for Bath, then despite suffering injuries to some key players I expect Saints to be too strong.

Gloucester v London Irish

Technically Gloucester could still qualify for the 7th place play-off spot - but realistically this match has nothing riding on it. As such a good match for debutant referee Steve Lee to officiate.
If the weather holds fair we could have a really entertaining game on our hands.

Can anyone else see London Irish winning a try fest against Gloucester?

Wasps v Newcastle

Wasps recruitment has continued at pace since the last round of fixtures - and a victory in this match could see the new recruits in the new European cup next season as victory against a disappointing Falcons team would all but guarantee 7th spot and the play-off with a French team.

Newcastle did win on their last visit to Adams Park, but it is hard to see anything other than a 15th consecutive defeat for Dean Richards men. Perhaps their best chance is if the ref is their DoR and not his namesake.

formerly known as Sam wrote:Can anyone else see London Irish winning a try fest against Gloucester?

We could have a 41-42 scoreline on our hands. will probably be a dull slug after that prediction though.

Londontiger I agree that's been one problem with Ford. Bath have felt the need to protect him.

Saracens and Sale both succeeded at unsettling Ford and not allowing him any time and space. Expect Northampton to do the same.

For Bath I would say if you can stop the power runners then Northampton's options become more limited in attack. North is a powerful weapon but sometimes he is under utilised.

Watching how Leicester and Sarries took on Northampton should give you an idea of what you need to do.

Saracens v Worcester

Saracens will be rotating players in the last two regular rounds I suspect. Even so, they should be far too strong for Worcester who will be relegated if they are defeated.

Sale v Leicester

Defeat for Sale and their slim hopes of play-offs are quashed. Victory for Leicester and a semi spot is all but guaranteed.
Both sides had a week off and will come out firing for this game. Leicester fans will hope that Mulipola is fit and will expect Ayerza to put whoever Diamond selects at TH under real pressure.
Leicester should be able to put the Sale scrum under real pressure which in turn makes life much more difficult for Peel and Cipriani.

Exeter v Harlequins

After being thrashed last time out, Exeter have to show some character and fight back. Bath and Leicester fans will be hoping they can do that and end Quins playoff hopes. Quins fans will be hoping Evans is fit and that they can seal a convincing victory.

LondonTiger wrote:Exeter v Harlequins

After being thrashed last time out, Exeter have to show some character and fight back. Bath and Leicester fans will be hoping they can do that and end Quins playoff hopes. Quins fans will be hoping Evans is fit and that they can seal a convincing victory.

Sadly can't see anything but a Quins victory in this one - think the Exe lads shot their (metaphorical) bolt with the LV= final and haven't got anything left to give. Will be delighted to be proved wrong and see that Rob Baxter can get them refocused, but it just seems too unlikely   

I dont know why but i actually think we'll beat Wasps.

We've been so bad, things will just click and i think we'll put in a one off performance and blow Wasps away.

LondonTiger wrote:

formerly known as Sam wrote:Can anyone else see London Irish winning a try fest against Gloucester?

We could have a 41-42 scoreline on our hands. will probably be a dull slug after that prediction though.

I think it will be the latter. This has been a season horribilis and I simply cannot see Glaws finishing the season in any other way. I really can see Irish winning this and having just forked out £400 renewing my season ticket it does make for a rather depressing time. Next season though will be one full of hope and a top 4 finish...   

£400 to watch Glaws   

Unfortunately I have to agree with you ASBO

My highly uniformed predictions for this weekend. If I get more than half right I will have a chocolate bar to celebrate!


Bath Rugby  v   Northampton Saints Recreation Ground 
Saints Win


Difficult one to call, I think it will be close but I think Saints are building up steam again and Bath have been a bit on auto pilot for the last few games. Having said that the big match fixture might wake them up again, but I see saints winning.

15:00 Gloucester Rugby  v   London Irish Kingsholm 
Gloucester Win


Home advantage I see being very important here, Irish have looked sharp and Gloucester are missing consistency, however being at Home I see a close home win. 

15:00 London Wasps  v   Newcastle Falcons Adams Park 
Wasps Easy Win


At home, playing well against a team that is really struggling to find any form after a decent start to the season, I can only see a big win for Wasps.

15:00 Saracens  v   Worcester Warriors Allianz Park 
Saracens Easy Win


Warriors have been noticebly improving, with some close losses and finally a win in their last few matches, amazingly are only 8 behind the falcons. However Saracens at away is going to be too much. Warriors I believe will finally be confirmed as last place and regulated this weekend, brave fight towards the end, but far too late.
 
15:15 Sale Sharks  v   Leicester Tigers AJ Bell Stadium 
Leicester Win


With Braid confirmed to be out for the rest of the season, I think the Tigers pack will be too much for ours and can bring quality off the bench. I see it being close but Tigers to pull away in the last 20-30 from us to win by a couple of tries. Play offs contention was a lovely surprise for us shark fans this year, but in the end it was a step too far for our resources.

14:00 Exeter Chiefs  v   Harlequins Sandy Park 
Quins Win


Quins have been looking very sharp up front and in the backs currently, they are playing the way I thought they would be this season. Chiefs I think will still have 2 weeks ago in their mind and might still be a little shocked, I know I am. Quins to win by a score.

formerly known as Sam wrote:Can anyone else see London Irish winning a try fest against Gloucester?

I'd be happy to see that

Does anyone know if Saracens are in position to set a club record for most bonus points (try bonus, win bonus, loss by less than 7 bonus) in a season?

Saints
Glos
Wasps
Sarries
Sale
Quins

doctor_grey wrote:Does anyone know if Saracens are in position to set a club record for most bonus points (try bonus, win bonus, loss by less than 7 bonus) in a season?  

They should set most points, but unable to set the most BPs ever and very unlikely to set most bonus points in the last 4 years.

Last Season Leicester got 12 (7/5) so to equal this, Sarries would need to lose their last two but get TBPs as well as LBPs. IIn fact Leicester secured 12 BPs in each of the last 3 seasons).
They need TBPs in both remaining games to beat Leicester's 9 from 2011/12.


Most BPs I can find was London Irish in 2008/9, tyhe year they just lost to Leicester in the final. LI secured 7 TBPs and 9 LBPs!!!

LondonTiger wrote:

doctor_grey wrote:Does anyone know if Saracens are in position to set a club record for most bonus points (try bonus, win bonus, loss by less than 7 bonus) in a season?  

They should set most points, but unable to set the most BPs ever and very unlikely to set most bonus points in the last 4 years.

Last Season Leicester got 12 (7/5) so to equal this, Sarries would need to lose their last two but get TBPs as well as LBPs. IIn fact Leicester secured 12 BPs in each of the last 3 seasons).
They need TBPs in both remaining games to beat Leicester's 9 from 2011/12.


Most BPs I can find was London Irish in 2008/9, tyhe year they just lost to Leicester in the final. LI secured 7 TBPs and 9 LBPs!!!

I remember it well LT. We secured at least a point in every game we played that year. The final was devastating. I wonder how different things might be now, had we have gone on to win that game.

Wasn't that the year you nilled Quins on the way to the final too?

Isn't it funny how things have turned out for the two clubs after that season. Quins after one of their worst and most embarassing defeats go on to win the comp three seasons later, while Irish never manage to repeat the feat of getting to the play offs.

Just what did happen after that final that made Irish fall apart?

Ozzy3213 wrote:

LondonTiger wrote:

doctor_grey wrote:Does anyone know if Saracens are in position to set a club record for most bonus points (try bonus, win bonus, loss by less than 7 bonus) in a season?  

They should set most points, but unable to set the most BPs ever and very unlikely to set most bonus points in the last 4 years.

Last Season Leicester got 12 (7/5) so to equal this, Sarries would need to lose their last two but get TBPs as well as LBPs. IIn fact Leicester secured 12 BPs in each of the last 3 seasons).
They need TBPs in both remaining games to beat Leicester's 9 from 2011/12.


Most BPs I can find was London Irish in 2008/9, tyhe year they just lost to Leicester in the final. LI secured 7 TBPs and 9 LBPs!!!

I remember it well LT.  We secured at least a point in every game we played that year.  The final was devastating.  I wonder how different things might be now, had we have gone on to win that game.

I often wonder the same thing Ozzy, but come to the same conclusion eventually: even if we had won I don't think things would be much different. Recruitment for 09/10 was more or less done and we went into that season with great belief anyway (winning away at Leinster as an example). Perhaps we would have rode the crest of that wave for a little longer, but I think the lack of funds would have eventually led to the decline that started to occur by the second half of the 09/10 season. Interested though if you have a different opinion?

yappysnap wrote:Wasn't that the year you nilled Quins on the way to the final too?  

Isn't it funny how things have turned out for the two clubs after that season. Quins after one of their worst and most embarassing defeats go on to win the comp three seasons later, while Irish never manage to repeat the feat of getting to the play offs.

Just what did happen after that final that made Irish fall apart?

Sitting behind the posts at the Stoop that day - honestly one of the best experiences of my life. We felt unbeatable.

I think it is a combination of factors and Ozzy will probably be able to explain it better than me - but I think the lack of money available for recruitment meant that although we could maintain a strong 1st XV our depth was pretty shocking. We never fully resolved the fly half conundrum. For what it is worth I remain incredibly frustrated with that regime for not trusting Peter Hewat as a 10. The few games he played there in the 08/09 season remain the best all round displays from a fly half that I have seen for Irish. He said publicly that he wanted to give it a go, excelled there, and was then reverted back to 15...and even worse for a 15 whose main skills were tactical kicking, he was eventually shunted out to the wing. The above factors led to a gradual decline, but we were able to retain our top 6 place for a while, before the rot fully set in. One of the other main things was that the coaching staff seemed to lose their creative spark. In 08/09 we would have Catt packing down at Number 8 with Steffon Armitage standing at 10. Little things like this made us a very difficult team to defend against (there are numerous other examples). However after that season we stopped doing things like that and became far more predictable. Booth then fell out with Steffon who left and we have never been the same side since  . For a team whose game plan was based around speed of ball it is criminal that we went two whole seasons without a recognised 7. When you factor in the loss/retirement of other huge players for us like Mapusua, Delon and the decline of Paul Hodgson and it starts to make a bit more sense. It reminds me a little of the fall of England post 03. I think finally we are seeing springs of rejuvenation but it will take a long time to be a play-off side again, largely because the rest of the league is so strong.

Apologies for the ramble.

Can't see us taking Saints at home without Louw and Garvey - two huge losses from the pack. I guess a LBP would be enough to keep the gap from Quins though.

ps. Come on you Exeter!

Ozzy3213 wrote:

LondonTiger wrote:

doctor_grey wrote:Does anyone know if Saracens are in position to set a club record for most bonus points (try bonus, win bonus, loss by less than 7 bonus) in a season?  

They should set most points, but unable to set the most BPs ever and very unlikely to set most bonus points in the last 4 years.

Last Season Leicester got 12 (7/5) so to equal this, Sarries would need to lose their last two but get TBPs as well as LBPs. IIn fact Leicester secured 12 BPs in each of the last 3 seasons).
They need TBPs in both remaining games to beat Leicester's 9 from 2011/12.


Most BPs I can find was London Irish in 2008/9, tyhe year they just lost to Leicester in the final. LI secured 7 TBPs and 9 LBPs!!!

I remember it well LT.  We secured at least a point in every game we played that year.  The final was devastating.  I wonder how different things might be now, had we have gone on to win that game.

Thanks.  Setting the overall record for most points in a season would really show how dominating Saracens were this year. Weird stats about both Tigers with 12 BP for three years running, eh mate?  Also that LI team with a point in every game.  

Strangely, I have that LI-Tigers final recorded on my computer.  Don't know why.

Sitting through it once was enough for me.

SirBurger wrote:

yappysnap wrote:Wasn't that the year you nilled Quins on the way to the final too?  

Isn't it funny how things have turned out for the two clubs after that season. Quins after one of their worst and most embarassing defeats go on to win the comp three seasons later, while Irish never manage to repeat the feat of getting to the play offs.

Just what did happen after that final that made Irish fall apart?

Sitting behind the posts at the Stoop that day - honestly one of the best experiences of my life. We felt unbeatable.

I think it is a combination of factors and Ozzy will probably be able to explain it better than me - but I think the lack of money available for recruitment meant that although we could maintain a strong 1st XV our depth was pretty shocking. We never fully resolved the fly half conundrum. For what it is worth I remain incredibly frustrated with that regime for not trusting Peter Hewat as a 10. The few games he played there in the 08/09 season remain the best all round displays from a fly half that I have seen for Irish. He said publicly that he wanted to give it a go, excelled there, and was then reverted back to 15...and even worse for a 15 whose main skills were tactical kicking, he was eventually shunted out to the wing. The above factors led to a gradual decline, but we were able to retain our top 6 place for a while, before the rot fully set in. One of the other main things was that the coaching staff seemed to lose their creative spark. In 08/09 we would have Catt packing down at Number 8 with Steffon Armitage standing at 10. Little things like this made us a very difficult team to defend against (there are numerous other examples). However after that season we stopped doing things like that and became far more predictable. Booth then fell out with Steffon who left and we have never been the same side since  . For a team whose game plan was based around speed of ball it is criminal that we went two whole seasons without a recognised 7. When you factor in the loss/retirement of other huge players for us like Mapusua, Delon and the decline of Paul Hodgson and it starts to make a bit more sense. It reminds me a little of the fall of England post 03. I think finally we are seeing springs of rejuvenation but it will take a long time to be a play-off side again, largely because the rest of the league is so strong.

Apologies for the ramble.

Cheers for that SB, really interesting read.

It just shows what a knife edge these clubs are walking on when they're doing well. I worry about Quins recruitment too, they may go the same way (although not quite as badly) when you compare it to what Sarries, Bath, Tigers are doing in the transfer market.

We are going to beat Exeter. It's gonna come down to the last match vs Bath

Scrumpy wrote:£400 to watch Glaws   

I know! And it doesn't even come with a bottle of Babycham or Prawn vol au vent like at your lot

Bath Rugby team to face Northampton Saints

15. Nick Abendanon
14. Anthony Watson
13. Jonathan Joseph
12. Ollie Devoto
11. Matt Banahan
10. George Ford
9. Micky Young
1. Paul James
2. Rob Webber
3. David Wilson
4. Stuart Hooper (c)
5. Dave Attwood
6. Carl Fearns
7. Guy Mercer
8. Leroy Houston

Replacements

16. Ross Batty
17. Nathan Catt
18. Anthony Perenise
19. Dominic Day
20. Alafoti Fa'osiliva
21. Peter Stringer
22. Gavin Henson
23. Horacio Agulla

NORTHAMPTON SAINTS TEAM TO PLAY BATH

15 Ben FODEN
14 Ken PISI
13 George PISI
12 Luther BURRELL
11 Jamie ELLIOTT
10 Stephen MYLER
9 Kahn FOTUALI’I
1 Alex WALLER
2 Ross MCMILLAN
3 Salesi MA’AFU
4 Samu MANOA
5 Courtney LAWES
6 Calum CLARK
7 Tom WOOD (capt)
8 Sam DICKINSON

Replacements
16 Mike HAYWOOD
17 Gareth DENMAN
18 Tom MERCEY
19 James CRAIG
20 Phil DOWSON
21 Alex DAY
22 James WILSON
23 Tom COLLINS

I hope Saints absolutely hammer Bath.   

They will

LondonTiger wrote:Sale v Leicester

Defeat for Sale and their slim hopes of play-offs are quashed. Victory for Leicester and a semi spot is all but guaranteed.
Both sides had a week off and will come out firing for this game. Leicester fans will hope that Mulipola is fit and will expect Ayerza to put whoever Diamond selects at TH under real pressure.
Leicester should be able to put the Sale scrum under real pressure which in turn makes life much more difficult for Peel and Cipriani.

Just heard from a normally reliable source that Cueto may also be unavailable for Sale due to injury. it remains to be seen if this is true.

I feel that Saints will definitely miss Hartley. He's their best hooker by a distance and he's their best leader too.

Frontrow battle is an area I feel that Bath should look to get the upper hand.

Bath have some decent backs on the bench who Bath should not hesitate to use if starters are struggling.

Saints will start favourites but Bath can win key match ups in my opinion:

Webber vs Mcmillan - the highly rated Webber vs the relative unknown. Both will be key figures in the set piece for their players. If Bath are going to stand any chance in this match they must compete well at the set piece.

Attwood vs Lawes - two England locks. Both are two of the most significant players for their team. Expect Lawes to try his best to give Ford a rough time.

Fearns vs Clark - two relatively young English flankers both hoping to be in the England squad for the NZ tour - this head to head could be decisive in deciding the breakdown battle. Expect Clark to also try his best to give Ford a rough time.

Ford vs Myler - both 10s had strong starts to the AP season but as we have neared the business end, things haven't quite gone to plan. Their control of the game and kicking will be instrumental in deciding this match one would expect.

Devoto vs Burrell - the youngster vs one of the standout players of England. Bath must stop one of Northampton's most potent strike runners, though his form of late since his England performances have not yet seen him back to his best.

Bath are running on empty, interesting that Eastmond has been dropped after his outburst last week.

Also I think picking banners on the wing is a big mistake.

Scrumpy wrote:Bath are running on empty, interesting that Eastmond has been dropped after his outburst last week.

Also I think picking banners on the wing is a big mistake.

What did Eastmond say?

Is Rokodiguini injured?

CHIEFS SIDE TO FACE HARLEQUINS

15 Phil Dollman
14 Fetu’u Vainikolo
13 Ian Whitten
12 Sam Hill
11 Matt Jess
10 Gareth Steenson
9 Dave Lewis
1 Carl Rimmer
2 Luke Cowan-Dickie
3 Hoani Tui
4 Dean Mumm (capt)
5 Damian Welch
6 Dave Ewers
7 Ben White
8 Kai Horstmann

16 Jack Yeandle
17 Craig Mitchell
18 Alex Brown
19 James Phillips
20 James Scaysbrook
21 Haydn Thomas
22 Henry Slade
23 Tom James

Ben Moon and TJ injured still

Saracens side to face Worcester;
15. Alex Goode; 14. Chris Ashton, 13. Marcelo Bosch, 12. Brad Barritt, 11. David Strettle; 10. Owen Farrell, 9. Richard Wigglesworth; 1. Mako Vunipola, 2. Schalk Brits, 3. Matt Stevens, 4. Alistair Hargreaves ©, 5. Mourtiz Botha, 6. Jackson Wray, 7. Will Fraser, 8. Billy Vunipola.
Replacements
16. Jamie George, 17. Rhys Gill, 18. James Johnston, 19. Eoin Sheriff, 20. Kelly Brown, 21. Neil de Kock, 22. Duncan Taylor, 23. Chris Wyles.

All I have to say is poor Worcester!

Mostly full strength Saracens side at home. Probably would be hoping for a few more players missing.

lostinwales wrote:

Scrumpy wrote:Bath are running on empty, interesting that Eastmond has been dropped after his outburst last week.

Also I think picking banners on the wing is a big mistake.

What did Eastmond say?

He mouthed off to the ref when he was binned.

beshocked wrote:Is Rokodiguini injured?

No, isn't he playing for the Army this weekend?

Falcons for Wasps trip:

Newcastle Falcons:
1 Rob Vickers
2 Scott Lawson
3 Kieran Brookes
4 Scott MacLeod
5 Dom Barrow
6 Richard Mayhew
7 Will Welch (c)
8 Mark Wilson

9 Mike Blair
10 Joel Hodgson
11 Sinoti Sinoti
12 James Fitzpatrick
13 Gonzalo Tiesi
14 Noah Cato
15 Alex Tait

Replacements: 16 George McGuigan, 17 Scott Wilson, 18 Oliver Tomaszczyk, 19 Harry Spencer, 20 Andy Saull, 21 Warren Fury, 22 Rory Clegg, 23 Lee Smith

Leicester Tigers (vs Sale Sharks, away, Saturday 3.15pm)
15 Mathew Tait
14 Niall Morris
13 Manusamoa Tuilagi
12 Anthony Allen
11 Vereniki Goneva
10 Owen Williams
9 Ben Youngs
1 Marcos Ayerza
2 Tom Youngs
3 Logovi'i Mulipola
4 Ed Slater (c)
5 Geoff Parling
6 Jamie Gibson
7 Julian Salvi
8 Jordan Crane

Replacements
16 Neil Briggs
17 Boris Stankovich
18 Fraser Balmain
19 Louis Deacon
20 Thomas Waldrom
21 David Mele
22 Toby Flood
23 Blaine Scully

Sale Sharks: 15 Tom Arscott, 14 Tom Brady, 13 Jonny Leota, 12 Sammy Tuitupou, 11 Charlie Ingall, 10 Danny Cipriani, 9 Dwayne Peel; 1 Eifion Lewis Roberts, 2 Marc Jones, 3 Vadim Cobilas, 4 Andrei Ostrikov, 5 Michael Paterson, 6 James Gaskell, 7 David Seymour (c), 8 Vilaimi Fahiki. Replacements: 16 Tommy Taylor, 17 Ross Harrison, 18 Henry Thomas, 19 Kirill Kulemin, 20 Mark Easter, 21 Will Cliff, 22 Joe Ford, 23 Mark Jennings.

Glaws:
Rob Cook; Charlie Sharples, Mike Tindall, Billy Twelvetrees (capt), Jonny May; Freddie Burns, Jimmy Cowan; Yann Thomas, Huia Edmonds, Sila Puafisi; Elliott Stooke, Will James; Sione Kalamafoni, Matt Kvesic, Ben Morgan

Replacements:
Dan George, Dan Murphy, Shaun Knight, Tom Savage, Tom Young, Dan Robson, Billy Meakes, Shane Monahan

Bidding a fond farewell in particular to Will James, but also Burns, Cowan and Edmonds.

Wow thats pretty much a full strength side for Saracens.

Seesm a tad unfair when they put a 2nd string side out against us (and we still couldnt beat them).

But im not complaining...probably means Worcester will be confirmed as down on Saturday,

Much as I inherently dislike The Fezzeds' business model, they've created a fine team what with Ashton playing now like he used to with the Saints and out of Andy Farrell's claustrophobic clutches for most of the season and their adventure especially in the HC semi they should be worthy league champions imo.

If you must and have to go for a preferred playoff winner, I'd still like Saints to win it. Just for rugby's sake.