OWGR Week 19

Congratulations to all the winners this week.  JB Holmes in Charlotte, Filipe Aguilar in Singapore, Hyung Sung Kim in Japan, Blayne Barber on the Web-com tour, and Sam Chien on the PGAT-China tour in Guangdong, China

This is what the OWGR top 100 should look like tomorrow morning.

1 Tiger Woods 8.2564
2 Adam Scott 8.0352
3 Henrik Stenson 7.8889
4 Bubba Watson 7.2945
5 Matt Kuchar 7.0529
6 Jason Day 6.7764
7 Jordan Spieth 5.9621
8 Phil Mickelson 5.8597
9 Sergio Garcia 5.8033
10 Justin Rose 5.8000
11 Rory McIlroy 5.7528
12 Zach Johnson 5.4622
13 Dustin Johnson 5.1539
14 Jim Furyk 4.6275
15 Graeme McDowell 4.3523
16 Steve Stricker 4.2409
17 Charl Schwartzel 4.2174
18 Luke Donald 4.1293
19 Jason Dufner 4.0781
20 Keegan Bradley 4.0532
21 Ian Poulter 4.0443
22 Jimmy Walker 4.0349
23 Victor Dubuisson 3.9711
24 Patrick Reed 3.9181
25 Brandt Snedeker 3.7832
26 Hideki Matsuyama 3.7228
27 Jamie Donaldson 3.7047
28 Thomas Bjorn 3.6972
29 Webb Simpson 3.6830
30 Lee Westwood 3.5875
31 Graham Delaet 3.4116
32 Miguel A Jimenez 3.2771
33 Bill Haas 3.2693
34 Hunter Mahan 3.1059
35 Jonas Blixt 3.1049
36 Rickie Fowler 3.0683
37 Ryan Moore 2.9343
38 Louis Oosthuizen 2.9183
39 Stephen Gallacher 2.8609
40 Harris English 2.7894
41 Joost Luiten 2.6036
42 Matt Jones 2.6009
43 Matt Every 2.5875
44 Ernie Els 2.5678
45 Russell Henley 2.5508
46 Francesco Molinari 2.5210
47 Kevin Streelman 2.5053
48 Gonzalo Fdez-Castano 2.4664
49 Gary Woodland 2.4421
50 Thongchai Jaidee 2.4195
=======> Open Championship Bubble (May 25th)
51 Chris Kirk 2.4022
52 Kevin Stadler 2.3707
53 Billy Horschel 2.3681
54 John Senden 2.3646
55 Nick Watney 2.3321
56 Richard Sterne 2.3235
57 Ryan Palmer 2.2537
58 Chesson Hadley 2.2195
59 Matteo Manassero 2.2124
60 George Coetzee 2.2086
====> US Open Bubble Point (June 2nd Deadline)
61 Martin Kaymer 2.1699
62 Mikko Ilonen 2.1662
63 Pablo Larrazabal 2.1138
64 Bernd Wiesberger 2.0458
65 Anirban Lahiri 2.0429
66 Scott Stallings 2.0320
67 Branden Grace 2.0232
68 J.B. Holmes 1.9647 =====> Wins Wells Fargo
69 Kevin Na 1.9342
70 Kim Hyung-sung 1.9300 =====> Wins Crowns (Japan)
71 David Lynn 1.8648
72 Thorbjorn Olesen 1.8619
73 Boo Weekley 1.8537
74 Brendon de Jonge 1.8062
75 Marc Leishman 1.7846
76 Tommy Fleetwood 1.7827
77 Charles Howell-III 1.7690
78 Kiradech Aphibarnrat 1.7579
79 Peter Hanson 1.7574
80 Ross Fisher 1.7541
81 Charley Hoffman 1.7451
82 Chris Stroud 1.7380
83 Ryo Ishikawa 1.7143
84 Brooks Koepka 1.7058
85 Koumei Oda 1.7053
86 Peter Uihlein 1.6815
87 Angel Cabrera 1.6451
88 Roberto Castro 1.6306
89 Jason Kokrak 1.6146
90 Noh Seung-yul 1.6139
91 Scott Piercy 1.6122
92 Will Mackenzie 1.6111
93 Paul Casey 1.5630
94 Chris Wood 1.5515
95 Thomas Aiken 1.5366
96 Rafael Cabrera Bello 1.5237
97 Robert Garrigus 1.5189
98 Fredrik Jacobson 1.5185
99 K.J. Choi 1.5068
100 Pat Perez 1.5000
------
101 Daniel Summerhays 1.4886
102 Russell Knox 1.4842
103 Alejandro Canizares 1.4831
------
~130 Felipe Aguilar 1.2519 ======> Wins Championship at Laguna National
------
~287 Blayne Barber 0.5970 ======> Wins South Georgia Classic on Web-com tour
------
~638 Sam Chien 0.1800 ======> Wins Buick Open in Guangdong China

===================

#1 Implications (Unofficial) for the Players

Adam Scott can pass Woods by finishing 18th or better.  (or by Withdrawing before Teeing off)
Henrik Stenson can pass Woods by finishing 5th or better
Bubba Watson can pass Woods by finishing solo 2nd
Matt Kuchar can pass Woods by winning the Players

 

And confirm top 9 qualifiers to date for the US Ryder Cup Team are:
Bubba
Walker
Kuchar
Dustin
Spieth
Reed
Furyk
Mickelson
Zach
followed closely by:
English Harris
Dufner
Kirk
Moore
Simpson

Some decent "World" points for Justin Rose this week; Westwood etc falling further astern.
Big week for both teams coming up.

I see Ryo Ishikawa is a non-runner at The Players.

EDIT: This may not be true. The pgatour.com web-site is ambiguous, says he's first alternate but doesn't list him. Hmmmmm.
Willie Mac and Russell Knox are in, and probably a third alternate. Not sure on that. Brendon Todd is the new first alternate, followed by Vijay. Kenny Perry is apparently signed up and will go.

maybe Ryo WDed when he found out that he got bumped.

He was in Japan this week and he could have decided to stay home an extra week.

He really does need to start curbing his schedule down.

Ryo Ishikawa re-confirmed as first alternate, so he's not taking your advice, GPB.

PD's tweeted what Scott, Stenson, Bubba, and Kuchar have to do to overtake Tiger

Tiger's Average next week will be 8.05.

Scott needs a two way T16th or better to pass Tiger.
Stenson needs a two way T6 or better.
Bubba needs a solo second or better
Kuchar needs to win.

Top 4 is possible for players #7-#11 Spieth, Mickelson, Garcia, Rose, McIlroy (depending on how Bubba and Kuchar play)

Zach can get to #5
Dustin/Furyk can get to #6
GMAC/Stricker can get to #7
Charl can get to #10

No one else can crash the top 10.

9C out of top 10 by Hoylake?

super_realist wrote:9C out of top 10 by Hoylake?

Bubba will probably take #1 spot, and hold on to it for a long long time   

Wouldn't be surprised to see Spieth at #1

super_realist wrote:

Wouldn't be surprised to see Spieth at #1

Not so sure - I sense a dip in form following his adrenaline fueled entry into professional golf. A bit like new club syndrome - you think you can't miss until you do. That said, he's got an old head on young shoulders.

Spieth certainly looks like he can hold his own at the very upper echelons of the game. He will probably end up having a better career than McIlroy.

incontinentia wrote:Spieth certainly looks like he can hold his own at the very upper echelons of the game. He will probably end up having a better career than McIlroy.

I wouldn't argue with that - I think McIlroy is too hit and miss, too mood dependent and too easily distracted to have a dominant career (although that may change with maturity).

Did some ranking comparisons  of the Players between the OWGR and Sagarin.

All but one player is ranked in the top 400 of the OWGR.  Kenny Perry is the one player outside the 400 (He is #1056) mainly because his resume is only populated with 8 events.

OWGR gives a 771 SoF to the Players which is a weak level 76.
The OWGR rating using Sagarin Rankings would give 808, which is a strong 76.   Most of the difference is Woods is ranked #1 in the OWGR and #5 in Sagarin.

OWGR rankings has 112 players in the top 200.
Sagarin rankings has 119 players in the top 200.

Ranked  OWGR  Sagarin
1-50 .......46.......43
51-100 ....26......36
100-200 ..40 ....40
201-400 ..31 ....  21
>400 ......  1 ...... 4

I thought the players got a bump to 80?

Yes, the Players is subsidized to 80...but I did the comparison as if there was no subsidies.

Does it ever reach 80 without the subsidy?

McLaren wrote:Does it ever reach 80 without the subsidy?

Not likely, it would have to have the perfect field.

Basically 100% of the guys ranked inside the top 100 and 40 guys from 100-200.

But it can get to 78 very easily. If Tiger and Jason Day would have been in the field, it would be OWGR 78.

The players typically keeps closer to its subsidized value than any other major subsidized Flagship tournaments from around the world

The Majors never get above OWGR 78, subsidize to 100

Last year, the BMW PGA was rated at 54, subsidized to 64

Australian Open, Japan Open, South Africa Opens seldom to get to their subsidized values of 32.

However, the Australian Open of 2011 exceeded its subsidized value and got to Level 42. That is when a lot of the Prez Cup players played in the Aus Open.

OWGR Top 10.

4 players have won the Masters (TW, AS, BW, PM)
2 players have won the US Open (TW, JR)
2 players have won the Open Championship (TW, PM)
2 players have won the PGA Champioship (TW, PM)
6 players have the Players Championship (TW, AS, HS, MK, PM, SG)

Be interesting to find out how many of those names still have points fron those wins and how many are ancient irrelevant history.

And 4 of the Top 6 have won the WGC MatchPlay.

Oh. Wait! What MatchPlay?

Well Adam and Henrik layed an egg today.

I haven't done the math yet, but I believe Adam will pass Woods after the Nelson, no matter how he plays this week.

Adam is not playing the Nelson and he will be losing a tournament from his divisor.

However, if no one gets it done this week...and Spieth wins, he could snatch the number one spot from Adam by playing well at Nelson (I assume he is playing)

Scott laid a much bigger egg than Stenson, surely?
Scott's out of it, Stenson (tied w/Kuchar) just needs to improve by a shot or two to be right in it - and I'd imagine he'll do just that.

Forgot about Spieth in Dallas.
You'd have to think he'll be the shortest priced favourite of the year so far.

GPB wrote:Well Adam and Henrik layed an egg today.

I haven't done the math yet, but I believe Adam will pass Woods after the Nelson, no matter how he plays this week.

Adam is not playing the Nelson and he will be losing a tournament from his divisor.

However, if no one gets it done this week...and Spieth wins, he could snatch the number one spot from Adam by playing well at Nelson (I assume he is playing)

Saw an interview on Sky after his round yesterday, Spieth said he is just back after 2 weeks off after a 4 week run and is starting another 4 week run of tournaments this week.

Sand wrote:Saw an interview on Sky after his round yesterday, Spieth said he is just back after 2 weeks off after a 4 week run and is starting another 4 week run of tournaments this week.

Well that makes sense, since the next two weeks he will be able to sleep in own bed as the Nelson and Colonial are close to his parents home. And the fourth week is the Memorial and most of the Elite Americans play Memorial.

He has a legit outside shot of snatching up the number 1 spot if he can win one of these next four tournaments and have decent results in the others. He does have an issue the other guys do not have, is that he is actually that he is actually adding tournaments to his divisor right now rather than treading water.

To pass Woods, he needs to earn about 105 in the next 4 weeks. Scott is not scheduled to play until the Memorial and Stenson is skipping next week and playing in Europe (BMW and Nordea). Not sure what Kuchar and Bubba are planning to do in the next couple weeks.

Would think Kuchar is 50/50 for Colonial (you know he'll defend at Memorial) and Bubba will go back to Baghdad.
Neither will play the Nelson - which is a good point? Who will?? Dufner presumably, and Keegs & Spieth. But would think this'll be a weaker field than N'Orleans.

Well Adam played a great round to make the cut.  He is only five shots from a score to overtake Tiger.

Kaymer could get inside the top 30 if he wins.  He would go barely ahead of Poulter and Donald assuming they earn no points (Unlikely) and about 10 points in front of Rose before his result.

Spieth as discussed earlier would climb to about 25 points of Woods.

Henley can get into the top 20 of the OWGR.

Much better field than anticipated for the Byron Nelson, including Kuchar, Charl & Louis, Dufner & Keegs, Top Five (tho can't believe he'll play), Kaymer & Hanson, English & Sneds, Harrington & Casey.

Spoils must be about 40 to the victor?

Sorry Kwini, Harrington is no longer adding value to the field according to the OWGR. Ranked about 205th now.

Dustin and Jimmy Walker are also playing.

Looking like a SoF of 258 which is a weak 46. Vulnerable to a top 100 WD. (like Oosty).

But it can significantly increase if Spieth, Kaymer finish well this weekend.

All the Webbies are in the tournament as Daly is the first alternate. Including Patrick Cantlay!!

Nelson has been rated a 38, 38, 40 the last 3 years. So big improvement.

And PD has tweeted a pretty good rating for the Open de Espana. It has been a 24 the last few years. Looking like a 36 this year.

There is a 11 way tie for 13th after round 3

Even though Scott needs a Two way tie for 16th, an 11 way tie for 13th will not be enough for Adam to overtake Tiger this week.

Imagine Phil exits the Top Ten if Rory has a decent round today.

How will they adjust the points for Madeira, GPB? 75%??

Yep, Phil's tenure in the top 10 is definitely at risk.

Madeira is a subsidized tournament, so it is going to stay at the 18. Halfway between the Eurotour (24) and Challenge Tour (12). no players inside the top 200 are played Madiera.

Ricardo Santos is the highest ranked at 241.

Doesn't the 36-hole (if they even complete 36) rule apply with reduced points?

kwinigolfer wrote:Doesn't the 36-hole (if they even complete 36) rule apply with reduced points?

Not on subsidized tournaments

OWGR wrote:**Note: Points are reduced by 25% for tournaments curtailed to 36 holes because of inclement weather or other reasons. However a tournament will not be reduced below its minimum points level.

http://www.owgr.com/about

About halfway down the page

Like Rose's penalty being rescinded. Makes no sense!! Thanks,

Here is what the top 100 should look like Monday

1 Tiger Woods 8.05
2 Adam Scott 7.95
3 Henrik Stenson 7.83
4 Bubba Watson 7.12
5 Matt Kuchar 7.08
6 Jason Day 6.69
7 Sergio Garcia 6.36
8 Jordan Spieth 6.24
9 Justin Rose 6.09
10 Rory McIlroy 5.89
11 Phil Mickelson 5.75
12 Jim Furyk 5.55
13 Zach Johnson 5.40
14 Dustin Johnson 4.99
15 Steve Stricker 4.35
16 Graeme McDowell 4.26
17 Jimmy Walker 4.24
18 Charl Schwartzel 4.18
19 Luke Donald 4.09
20 Jason Dufner 4.02
21 Keegan Bradley 3.98
22 Ian Poulter 3.96
23 Victor Dubuisson 3.93
24 Patrick Reed 3.81
25 Hideki Matsuyama 3.80
26 Lee Westwood 3.75
27 Brandt Snedeker 3.72
28 Martin Kaymer 3.66 <= wins The Players Chamionship
29 Jamie Donaldson 3.63
30 Webb Simpson 3.60
31 Thomas Bjorn 3.57
32 Graham Delaet 3.36
33 Bill Haas 3.29
34 Miguel A Jimenez 3.23
35 Jonas Blixt 3.06
36 Hunter Mahan 3.05
37 Rickie Fowler 3.03
38 Ryan Moore 2.96
39 Louis Oosthuizen 2.85
40 Stephen Gallacher 2.77
41 Harris English 2.75
42 Francesco Molinari 2.72
43 Matt Jones 2.69
44 Russell Henley 2.63
45 Gary Woodland 2.60
46 Matt Every 2.57
47 Chris Kirk 2.52
48 Ernie Els 2.52
49 Joost Luiten 2.51
50 Gonzalo Fdez-Castano 2.47
======> Open Championship Bubble Point
51 Kevin Streelman 2.46
52 Billy Horschel 2.39
53 John Senden 2.39
54 Thongchai Jaidee 2.38
55 Kevin Stadler 2.33
56 Richard Sterne 2.28
57 Nick Watney 2.25
58 Ryan Palmer 2.25
59 George Coetzee 2.17
60 Matteo Manassero 2.17
======> US Open Bubble Point
61 Chesson Hadley 2.15
62 Mikko Ilonen 2.13
63 Pablo Larrazabal 2.08
64 Anirban Lahiri 2.02
65 Bernd Wiesberger 2.01
66 Scott Stallings 2.00
67 Branden Grace 1.98
68 J.B. Holmes 1.96
69 Kevin Na 1.93
70 Kim Hyung-sung 1.90
71 Marc Leishman 1.85
72 Boo Weekley 1.82
73 Thorbjorn Olesen 1.80
74 Charley Hoffman 1.77
75 Tommy Fleetwood 1.76
76 Peter Hanson 1.75
77 Charles Howell-III 1.74
78 Kiradech Aphibarnrat 1.73
79 Chris Stroud 1.71
80 Koumei Oda 1.71
81 Ross Fisher 1.71
82 Brendon de Jonge 1.70
83 Brooks Koepka 1.68
84 Angel Cabrera 1.67
85 Ryo Ishikawa 1.68
86 Peter Uihlein 1.65
87 David Lynn 1.82
88 K.J. Choi 1.63
89 Roberto Castro 1.60
90 Will Mackenzie 1.60
91 Scott Piercy 1.60
92 Jason Kokrak 1.60
93 David Hearn 1.59
94 Noh Seung-yul 1.58
95 Daniel Summerhays 1.56
96 Paul Casey 1.54
97 Russell Knox 1.53
98 Chris Wood 1.52
99 Pat Perez 1.51
100 Rafael Cabrera Bello 1.50
----------------
101 Fredrik Jacobson 1.49
102 Robert Garrigus 1.48
103 Thomas Aiken 1.51

~210 Danie van Tonder Winner of Investec on the Sunshine Tour
~301 Scott Henry Winner of Madeira Open

The indignity for Spieth of actually slipping a place in the rankings . . . .
(He'll make it up this week though.)
Cheers GPB.

44 for the Nelson
30 in Espana (seems it should be higher though).

kwinigolfer wrote:44 for the Nelson
30 in Espana (seems it should be higher though).

Open de Espana has a SoF of 150. One more player from the top 200, and it would have been a 32.

Steve Webster at #171 would have done it.

GPB... been busy... saw your question elsewhere.. and Koepka did earn STM at the Zurich...

Some early projections

Kuchar would fall just short of passing Woods if he wins this week.  He would pass him the following week if he wins.

Spieth can get to #5 if he wins.  (depending on Kuch)

Sergio can pass Day only and get to #6 if he wins.

Some VERY early projections:

Top 5 finish at the BMW PGA next week for Stenson means he will overtake Scott.

robopz wrote:GPB... been busy... saw your question elsewhere.. and Koepka did earn STM at the Zurich...

Yes, I know that, I just didn't think the STMs had any REAL status on the tour. I thought the only way they could play was via Sponsors invites or Top 10's in previous event.

With STM... Koepka got category 34 status after Zurich... just in time for the 3rd reshuffle which is Monday of the PLAYERS Championship... Cat 25 Webbies aren't the only ones reshuffled.. Categories 32-36 are reordered into Category 31 with each reshuffle as well.   PGAT's priority list doesn't seem to be current on this most recent CAT 31 reshuffle (or maybe they don't list STM's for some reason),  but just looking at the names in Cat 31... I assume Koepka would be a real high "31" after the reshuffle...  

(http://www.pgatour.com/news/2013/player_exemptions.html)

We'll find out on Friday at the latest whether Adam Scott is playing Colonial, as he has hinted he might. Think he'd be going for the Texas Grand Slam (just missing LaJet from his CV).

Most of the Bubble Boys around the Top 60 are on the EuroTour and playing Open de Espana.

None of them are playing particularly well.

59 George Coetzee T104
60 Matteo Manassero T35
62 Mikko Ilonen T131
63 Pablo Larrazabal T50
65 Bernd Wiesberger T78

C'Mon, guys, if you want to play in the US Open Qualifier at Walton Heath, this is the way to do it!!

Hopefully Peter Hanson can make up for their ineptitude . . . . . .

Peter Uihlein having a shocker today too - he's yet to display the form in 2014 that rocketed him to prominence last year.

Paul Casey can move as high as 53rd with a win, and a probable exemption to the US Open. (solo 2nd is not enough). And a top 10 finish does not guarantee him into Colonial since it is an Invitational (IIRC). It will him get a spot in Memphis if he wants it.

Hanson needs a Solo 2nd (or better) to get inside the top 60.
Weekley and Leishman need a solo 3rd (or better) to get the top 60.

Over in the Philippines, Lahiri can get into the top 60 with a solo 2nd or better. He's T12 right now.

Brendon Todd can get to #62 if he wins.

No one in contention at the Open de Espana can impact the top 60 bubble.

And Kaymer would move to around #15/16 if he wins again.

GPB,
I said elsewhere that Paul Casey is second alternate for Colonial - and therefore has a pretty good chance to get in whatever he does this weekend.

Top 60?
Not Ross Fisher??
Would think he'd be very close for Pinehurst depending upon other results.