OWGR Week 19

First topic message reminder :

Congratulations to all the winners this week.  JB Holmes in Charlotte, Filipe Aguilar in Singapore, Hyung Sung Kim in Japan, Blayne Barber on the Web-com tour, and Sam Chien on the PGAT-China tour in Guangdong, China

This is what the OWGR top 100 should look like tomorrow morning.

1 Tiger Woods 8.2564
2 Adam Scott 8.0352
3 Henrik Stenson 7.8889
4 Bubba Watson 7.2945
5 Matt Kuchar 7.0529
6 Jason Day 6.7764
7 Jordan Spieth 5.9621
8 Phil Mickelson 5.8597
9 Sergio Garcia 5.8033
10 Justin Rose 5.8000
11 Rory McIlroy 5.7528
12 Zach Johnson 5.4622
13 Dustin Johnson 5.1539
14 Jim Furyk 4.6275
15 Graeme McDowell 4.3523
16 Steve Stricker 4.2409
17 Charl Schwartzel 4.2174
18 Luke Donald 4.1293
19 Jason Dufner 4.0781
20 Keegan Bradley 4.0532
21 Ian Poulter 4.0443
22 Jimmy Walker 4.0349
23 Victor Dubuisson 3.9711
24 Patrick Reed 3.9181
25 Brandt Snedeker 3.7832
26 Hideki Matsuyama 3.7228
27 Jamie Donaldson 3.7047
28 Thomas Bjorn 3.6972
29 Webb Simpson 3.6830
30 Lee Westwood 3.5875
31 Graham Delaet 3.4116
32 Miguel A Jimenez 3.2771
33 Bill Haas 3.2693
34 Hunter Mahan 3.1059
35 Jonas Blixt 3.1049
36 Rickie Fowler 3.0683
37 Ryan Moore 2.9343
38 Louis Oosthuizen 2.9183
39 Stephen Gallacher 2.8609
40 Harris English 2.7894
41 Joost Luiten 2.6036
42 Matt Jones 2.6009
43 Matt Every 2.5875
44 Ernie Els 2.5678
45 Russell Henley 2.5508
46 Francesco Molinari 2.5210
47 Kevin Streelman 2.5053
48 Gonzalo Fdez-Castano 2.4664
49 Gary Woodland 2.4421
50 Thongchai Jaidee 2.4195
=======> Open Championship Bubble (May 25th)
51 Chris Kirk 2.4022
52 Kevin Stadler 2.3707
53 Billy Horschel 2.3681
54 John Senden 2.3646
55 Nick Watney 2.3321
56 Richard Sterne 2.3235
57 Ryan Palmer 2.2537
58 Chesson Hadley 2.2195
59 Matteo Manassero 2.2124
60 George Coetzee 2.2086
====> US Open Bubble Point (June 2nd Deadline)
61 Martin Kaymer 2.1699
62 Mikko Ilonen 2.1662
63 Pablo Larrazabal 2.1138
64 Bernd Wiesberger 2.0458
65 Anirban Lahiri 2.0429
66 Scott Stallings 2.0320
67 Branden Grace 2.0232
68 J.B. Holmes 1.9647 =====> Wins Wells Fargo
69 Kevin Na 1.9342
70 Kim Hyung-sung 1.9300 =====> Wins Crowns (Japan)
71 David Lynn 1.8648
72 Thorbjorn Olesen 1.8619
73 Boo Weekley 1.8537
74 Brendon de Jonge 1.8062
75 Marc Leishman 1.7846
76 Tommy Fleetwood 1.7827
77 Charles Howell-III 1.7690
78 Kiradech Aphibarnrat 1.7579
79 Peter Hanson 1.7574
80 Ross Fisher 1.7541
81 Charley Hoffman 1.7451
82 Chris Stroud 1.7380
83 Ryo Ishikawa 1.7143
84 Brooks Koepka 1.7058
85 Koumei Oda 1.7053
86 Peter Uihlein 1.6815
87 Angel Cabrera 1.6451
88 Roberto Castro 1.6306
89 Jason Kokrak 1.6146
90 Noh Seung-yul 1.6139
91 Scott Piercy 1.6122
92 Will Mackenzie 1.6111
93 Paul Casey 1.5630
94 Chris Wood 1.5515
95 Thomas Aiken 1.5366
96 Rafael Cabrera Bello 1.5237
97 Robert Garrigus 1.5189
98 Fredrik Jacobson 1.5185
99 K.J. Choi 1.5068
100 Pat Perez 1.5000
------
101 Daniel Summerhays 1.4886
102 Russell Knox 1.4842
103 Alejandro Canizares 1.4831
------
~130 Felipe Aguilar 1.2519 ======> Wins Championship at Laguna National
------
~287 Blayne Barber 0.5970 ======> Wins South Georgia Classic on Web-com tour
------
~638 Sam Chien 0.1800 ======> Wins Buick Open in Guangdong China

===================

#1 Implications (Unofficial) for the Players

Adam Scott can pass Woods by finishing 18th or better.  (or by Withdrawing before Teeing off)
Henrik Stenson can pass Woods by finishing 5th or better
Bubba Watson can pass Woods by finishing solo 2nd
Matt Kuchar can pass Woods by winning the Players

Anirban Lahiri falls back to T37 in the Philippines with a 76. A probable non factor this week.

Ross Fisher can indeed make the top 60 should he win, but he started round 3 in 35th place...I didn't consider him a threat. He can get as high as #56.

Kaymer can get as high #15 should he win.

Nice round today to get him in contention.

Does Shrimp Trawler Nine CHins lose #1 this week?

super_realist wrote:Does Shrimp Trawler Nine CHins lose #1 this week?

yes

incontinentia wrote:

super_realist wrote:Does Shrimp Trawler Nine CHins lose #1 this week?

yes

        

Stenson needs a top 20 at Wentworth to pass Woods.

The Mechanic can get as high as #25 with a win. Richard Green can get to about #180 should he win. Pieters to about #190.

Aren't they playing slow in Spain? Jimenez and Pieters are 2 hours 55 minutes into their round and they are only on hole 12. They should be halfway through the back nine if they were on a 4 hour pace. They should be on hole 14.

Congratulations to all the winners from around the world. Noted below.

Brendon Todd and Marc Leishman falls just short of getting to the Top 60 and inside the US Open Top 60 Bubble. Next week is the first deadline for exemptions into US Open.

Here is what the Top 100 and where the players around the bubble are playing. Richard Sterne and Charles Howell III are not playing either Colonial or the BMW.

1 Adam Scott 7.9936
2 Tiger Woods 7.8495
3 Henrik Stenson 7.7203
4 Matt Kuchar 7.1229
5 Bubba Watson 7.0429
6 Jason Day 6.6067
7 Sergio Garcia 6.2649
8 Justin Rose 6.1097
9 Jordan Spieth 6.0944
10 Rory McIlroy 5.7644
11 Phil Mickelson 5.7570
12 Jim Furyk 5.4783
13 Zach Johnson 5.3312
14 Dustin Johnson 4.9370
15 Graeme McDowell 4.2574
16 Steve Stricker 4.2573
17 Jimmy Walker 4.2067
18 Charl Schwartzel 4.1899
19 Luke Donald 4.0114
20 Ian Poulter 3.9586
21 Keegan Bradley 3.9367
22 Jason Dufner 3.9361
23 Victor Dubuisson 3.8834
24 Patrick Reed 3.8557
25 Miguel A Jimenez 3.7836 => Winner Open de Espana
26 Hideki Matsuyama 3.7194
27 Lee Westwood 3.7037
28 Martin Kaymer 3.6606
29 Brandt Snedeker 3.6309
30 Jamie Donaldson 3.5704
31 Webb Simpson 3.5236
32 Thomas Bjorn 3.5176
33 Graham Delaet 3.4512
34 Bill Haas 3.2359
35 Jonas Blixt 3.0219
36 Hunter Mahan 3.0008
37 Rickie Fowler 2.9920
38 Louis Oosthuizen 2.8857
39 Ryan Moore 2.8427
40 Stephen Gallacher 2.7249
41 Harris English 2.7174
42 Gary Woodland 2.7072
43 Francesco Molinari 2.6718
44 Matt Jones 2.6676
45 Russell Henley 2.6013
46 Joost Luiten 2.6008
47 Matt Every 2.5469
48 Chris Kirk 2.4799
49 Ernie Els 2.4774
50 John Senden 2.4561
51 Gonzalo Fdez-Castano 2.4236
52 Kevin Streelman 2.4230
53 Billy Horschel 2.3548
54 Thongchai Jaidee 2.3475
55 Kevin Stadler 2.3030 => Colonial
56 Ryan Palmer 2.2659 => Colonial
57 Richard Sterne 2.2405
58 Nick Watney 2.1989 => Colonial
59 Matteo Manassero 2.1523 => BMW PGA
60 Chesson Hadley 2.1269 => Colonial
===> US Open Bubble
61 George Coetzee 2.0927 => BMW PGA
62 Marc Leishman 2.0863 => Colonial
63 Brendon Todd 2.0675 => Winner HP Byron Nelson & Playing Colonial
64 Mikko Ilonen 2.0520 => BMW PGA
65 Pablo Larrazabal 2.0471 => BMW PGA
66 Charles Howell III 2.0038
67 Boo Weekley 1.9775 => Colonial
68 Bernd Wiesberger 1.9741 => BMW PGA
69 Scott Stallings 1.9589 => Colonial
70 Kevin Na 1.9588 => Colonial
71 Anirban Lahiri 1.9499
72 J.B. Holmes 1.9459
73 Branden Grace 1.9401
74 Kim Hyung-sung 1.8666
75 David Lynn 1.7827
76 Charley Hoffman 1.7726
77 Thorbjorn Olesen 1.7604
78 Tommy Fleetwood 1.7402
79 Peter Hanson 1.7307
80 Ross Fisher 1.7255
81 Koumei Oda 1.7170
82 Brendon de Jonge 1.7110
83 Kiradech Aphibarnrat 1.6987
84 Chris Stroud 1.6917
85 Ryo Ishikawa 1.6382
86 K.J. Choi 1.6350
87 Peter Uihlein 1.6221
88 Brooks Koepka 1.6201
89 Angel Cabrera 1.6071
90 Will Mackenzie 1.5909
91 Scott Piercy 1.5849
92 Paul Casey 1.5812
93 Jason Kokrak 1.5794
94 Roberto Castro 1.5786
95 David Hearn 1.5709
96 Noh Seung-yul 1.5687
97 Chris Wood 1.5483
98 Alejandro Canizares 1.5358
99 Daniel Summerhays 1.5237
100 Russell Knox 1.5169

101 Pat Perez 1.5147
102 Darren Fichardt 1.4866
103 Robert Garrigus 1.4790
104 Rafael Cabrera Bello 1.4774
105 Thomas Aiken 1.4522

~328 Max Homa 0.5215 => Winner of BMW Charity Classic (Web-com)

~355 Wallie Coetsee 0.4606 => Winner on Sunshine Tour (Zambia)

~395 Marcus Both 0.4045 => Winner of Philippines Open (Asian Tour)

Quite the week in prospect next week, both at Colonial and at Wentworth.
A ton of owgr points on offer and Ryder Cup points for both teams.
Those (Woods obviously, Bradley, Stricker, Phil, Simpson, possibly Reed) who don't play will lose ground big time, with Colonial & Wentworth specialists likely to scoop up mega points/money.
For instance, Furyk, Zach, Dufner, Donald, Westwood, etc.

Howell seems to be on the wrong side of the bubble at every important deadline and he doesn't play the "bubble" events.

He was #72 going into Pebble Beach, week before the Match Play deadline and didn't play Pebble Beach.

Last year at Accenture, he was in similar situation but got in because two players WDed.

Now #66 with one week before US Open deadline.  BTW, he is signed up for sectional qualifying in Columbus.

================


Preliminary OWGR rating for Colonial is 54. BMW PGA will be 64 (Flagship EuroT tournament)

I'm going to address the elephant in the room here- Woods' loss of the #1 spot. I have opined before that I don't expect Woods to return to his best after this back injury and he may even retire sooner than expected. There is simply too many injuries to too many different body parts. He's putting a brave face on here posing with OneRepublic at his Tiger Jam concert, but I fear we may have seen the last of Woods as world #1. I hope I'm wrong.

I hope you're wrong Inco.

Can't wait until that stroker retires.

I KNEW Tiger was Republican!

According to the OWGR, the BMW-PGA SoF is 375 which would be a strong Level 52.

Colonial is 392 (after Reed WD and Casey Addition). (My calculations)

Tiger likes the 'Kumquat stars' principle

Counting minus u

Minus o?

Tiger looking like a school boy.

A couple of golf blogs today suggesting Adam Scott may be a one week wonder at #1 ... who is in line to claim #1 then?

Scott, Stenson, Kuchar and Rose are all playing this week, next week and the US Open in three weeks' time.
Anyone suggesting Scott is one-and-done needs to say who will pass him and why!

http://www.golfdigest.com/blogs/the-loop/2014/05/is-adam-scott-a-one-week-wonde.html

This is just one article that makes the claim - and says Stenson or Kuchar could both overtake Scott with a win this week. I wasn't sure if that was true so decided to ask here as we usually have predictions of who can do what in the coming week

Yup, GPB posted Sunday that Stenson needs a Top 20 to pass Woods; obviously what Kuchar, Scott and Stenson can do vis-a-vis their own positions is dependent upon how they play this week. And next!

Yes, the scenarios are kind of convoluted this week since they are playing two highly ranked tournaments.

PD just tweeted that Stenson could become #1 by finishing as low as 29th.

I guess that assumes Scott whiffies (53rd or worse) and Kuchar does not win.

OK....here are the official scenarios for Stenson to pass Scott

Henrik Stenson will pass Adam Scott if :-



Stenson win Scott doesn’t win
Stenson 4th Scott 5th or worse
Stenson 6th Scott 10th or worse
Stenson 12th Scott 20th or worse
Stenson 15th Scott 30th or worse
Stenson 17th Scott 40th or worse
Stenson 19th Scott 50th or worse
Stenson 29th Scott 53rd or worse (winning zero points)

Kuchar will be #1 if he wins, if both Scott & Stenson finish 4th or worse

Top 60 Bubble Boys: None of them are playing particularly well this week. Pablo is doing the best and at this time, his T14 would put him in the top 60. Barely.

RCB needs a solo second to have any chance of crashing the Top 60. Solo 2nd would puts him at best 58th so even he finishes 2nd, he still would be vulnerable.

Leishman's doing OK, 24th.
Kind of amusing Faldo's tale last week of going up to Leishman on the range and saying:
"With the way you're playing, you must fancy your chances at Pinehurst."
And Leishman responding,
"Mate, I ain't in yet!"

Yes, 24th could give Leishman enough points...barely.

Leishman continuing to help himself, Larrazabal also.

This is what the Top 60 Bubble is looking like...RIGHT NOW.

50 John Senden 2.421
51 Kevin Streelman 2.381 ===> Already Qualified for US Open
52 Gonzalo Fdez-Castano 2.380
53 Thongchai Jaidee 2.338
54 Billy Horschel 2.313 ===> Already Qualified for US Open
55 Ryan Palmer 2.288
56 Kevin Stadler 2.271
57 Richard Sterne 2.246
58 Pablo Larrazabal 2.168
59 Nick Watney 2.136 ===> Already Qualified for US Open
60 Marc Leishman 2.126
61 Matteo Manassero 2.105
62 Brendon Todd 2.101
63 Mikko Ilonen 2.100
64 George Coetzee 2.082
65 Chesson Hadley 2.057

However, this assumes that Shane Lowry does not win BMW.

If Shane wins the BMW, his avg will be 2.395, and projected 51st.  So not only would Shane earn an exemption to Pinehurst, Leishman gets knocked out by a hundredth of a point.

There is a lot of different scenarios.  But Coetzee, Pablo, Todd, Mikko and Leishman look to be in the drivers seat for the last spots.  Who will press the pedal to floor?

Lowry will need to charter an Antonov if he makes it.

super_realist wrote:Lowry will need to charter an Antonov if he makes it.

Have you seen him lately? He seems to have lost weight, looks average sized now

incontinentia wrote:

super_realist wrote:Lowry will need to charter an Antonov if he makes it.

Have you seen him lately? He seems to have lost weight, looks average sized now

Average for a walrus maybe.

Ultimately he's leading the European Tours flagship event. I don't think comparisons with marine mammals will bother him much.

Yep, obese man leads "sport" event.

Nothing in the rule book that a player has to have an optimal BMI.

If Golf was designed for the fittest guy, they would make the players run the course and carry their own clubs.

True, equally there is nothing to stop me commenting on any player that happens to be a bloater, like Lowry.
If his build is meant to be an acceptable average then what a bunch of fat knackers we must be.

Yep, Mean sorority girls are allowed to comment on superficial features.

Indeed. But he doesn't have to be fat does he, he chooses to be. Or is it just his glands.....his glands like pies maybe?
One thing I've noticed about most fat people, they tend to eat a lot.

The fight for #1 is really close coming down the home stretch. if the tournaments ended on Saturday, this is how the top two would finish.

AdamS: 7.7913
Henrik: 7.7688

This is how the US Open bubble would be. (I am giving Chris Stroud a 4 way share of 1st place.)

Old ===> New
56 ===> 55 Ryan Palmer 2.311
55 ===> 56 Kevin Stadler 2.271
84 ===> 57 Chris Stroud 2.267
65 ===> 58 Pablo Larrazabal 2.254
57 ===> 59 Richard Sterne 2.246
62 ===> 60 Marc Leishman 2.233
63 ===> 61 Brendon Todd 2.162
58 ===> 62 Nick Watney 2.136 ===> Already Qualified for US Open
59 ===> 63 Matteo Manassero 2.105
61 ===> 64 George Coetzee 2.100
60 ===> 65 Chesson Hadley 2.057

Lots of players well outside the bubble that can snatch a top 60 spot from the bubble boys are in contention should they win (or in some cases solo 2nd)

Players like Chris Stroud, Shane Lowry, David Toms, Kevin Chappell, Brian Harman, Tim Clark, Freddie Jac, and Brian Davis..

It looks like Coetzee and Ilonen gave themselves a confirmed tee time at Walton Heath.