Can the Springboks beat the ABs this weekend?

Here is the team

Springboks – 15 Willie le Roux, 14 Cornal Hendricks, 13 Jan Serfontein, 12 Jean de Villiers (c), 11 Bryan Habana, 10 Handré Pollard, 9 Francois Hougaard, 8 Duane Vermeulen/Schalk Burger, 7 Oupa Mohoje, 6 Marcell Coetzee, 5 Victor Matfield, 4 Eben Etzebeth, 3 Jannie du Plessis, 2 Bismarck du Plessis, 1 Tendai Mtawarira.

Subs: 16 Adriaan Strauss, 17 Trevor Nyakane, 18 Marcel van der Merwe, 19 Bakkies Botha, 20 Schalk Burger/Warren Whiteley, 21 Cobus Reinach, 22 Pat Lambie, 23 JP Pietersen.

I look at the side and think they probably did well to beat AUS the way they did. AUS simply ran out of steam.

The forward pack - solid front five but missing Louw, Alberts and maybe Vermeulen... Coetzee & Mohoje are not in the same league as Alberts and Louw and Burger is past his best (20 min cameos are fine but 80 mins is a different issue altogether). Matfield will provide decent ball at the lineout and with Bissie back it will improve IMO. Scrumtime is difficult, Jannie is a bit of a liability. I'd be inclined to bring on vd Merwe sooner rather than later.

Backline - Its slow in the midfield. When you see a youthful Serfontein being outgassed by Ashley-Cooper you know he's short of a few steps. Then add into the mix an ageing JDV and you have a little problem. Hendricks is youthful and Hougaard offers a lot of pace off the ruck but not with his pass.

Rucktime - I think SA may struggle here. Without Flip, Louw and Vermeulen I think they will struggle on the floor against NZ  and a reason why I think Bissie was brought back into the fold over Strauss. If Burger plays he needs to up his intensity and perhaps leave his ball carrying obligations to be the 1st man on the scene securing possession.

NZ - They are clearly a better side but can they keep the intensity up knowing the RC is already in the bag? The boks will be up for this big time, its a one off match, they don't need a record number of tries and they can secure their objective by winning by kicks only if necessary. NZ rarely drop the intensity but perhaps they may go to ellis park saying... how can we top last year???

For my 10 pence worth I think SA will look to strangle NZ and grind out a win..... but with Alberts, Louw, Flip, Du Preez, Vermeulen and no real centre solution at either 12 or 13 I think it may be a bridge too far. AUS were able to exploit their weakness in defence in both games and a more settled side (i.e. well rounded, strong upfront, backline and bench) like ENG in my opinion would turn over this current bok XV.... let alone NZ.

The boks with their best players all fit are a good match for NZ and at home would be expected to win... but with say 6-7 players out I think its unlikely.

It will be a devastating loss also. They have lost 5 matches in a row and if you take out the win in 2011 when NZ sent a 2nd XV to SA, they haven't beaten NZ since 2009. Crazy when you think they have near been the 2nd best team in the world for the duration.

This is such an important match for the boks, said it before... if they can't beat them at home now NZ might as well book their RWC final place as with no victories in this RWC cycle over NZ, how can they get the confidence and belief to win the most important one????

Not sure, but I do wonder about Serfontein as an attacking threat. In the antipodean tour he gained about 15 metres from 15 carries. Hendricks, Le Roux and Habana are as effective an attacking back three as there are in world rugby, and.they'll have to be, as I suspect we're only going to try get something on the counter. I just don't think we're set up to beat NZ. It doesn't mean that we won't, just that I'm not holding thumbs. Not sure about devastating though. I mean, they've been beating us. Taking away the PdV era, we've won 3 and lost seventeen since 2000. Defeat is us now mate.

I have a bad feeling about this game.

Just do the comparison Louw, Vermeulen and ALberts vs Coetzee, Burger and Mohoje.

Because of the rules only 30 All Blacks flew to SA Retalick apparently won`t start Thrush
playing at 4.Effects lineout/scrum/ruck areas he is competent but no Retalick,Luatua is
only Lock option now for bench.

Fitness and discipline/goalkicking on the veldt will be key don`t expect AB`s to be run off
there feet.Bok Scrum on last weeks effort looks weak but should edge Lineouts.

I don`t expect a match like last years try for try more an arm wrestle hope for a AB win
but expect a loss frankly.

NZ by 10-15 I reckon.

Could be more unless SA improve.

No they can't, no one can.

I think the boks are a chance. The boks might be missing a few first choice players but so are the AB's. When I look back the history of recent AB's/boks clashes, NZ struggle if we aren't full strength. The issue for me on the weekend is the set piece and lack of depth at 9 and 10 and 12. In terms of the scrum we down Woodcock, Crockett and Retallick. The boks scrum is strong and it could be a long night. Of far more concern for me is the lineout. This has often been central to both the Boks and Wallabies beating us. The Bok lineout will be great. At full strength I'd back us. But Thrush for me just isn't big enough to be a threat. If the Boks dominate this phase it will affect and limit the AB's gameplan and potentially give the boks a significant territorial and psychological advantage. I expect the boks to put real pressure on the inside backs and there is a drop off in quality in the back ups to the starting 15.

kingraf wrote:Taking away the PdV era, we've won 3 and lost seventeen since 2000. Defeat is us now mate.

Well that is frightening, did we have more from 1995 to 2000? What changed?

In any case, I don't think were are there yet.

Handre is not our answer at 10 yet, he was by far our greatest liability last week. How is Burger going to fare for 80 minutes, I am his biggest fan, but when he game on for WP/Stormers for a few minutes he wasn't doing that well - I know a lot of time has past, but I still feel uneasy. Oupa seemed fine last week, but I still have doubts, but if he can hold his own against the All Blacks it will probably be enough confirmation that he can make it at this level. This whole Handre and Oupa, almost straight out of Varsity Cup doesn't sit well with me. Sure it worked with Eben, but it won't always.

I don't get nervous about the AB's anymore, I kind of expect to lose, maybe I have given up on Heyneke Meyer?

This is the problem when we lose so many players to Japan/Europe... when injuries come the backup team is way below par and those who try and get the best of both worlds tend to be either too small (Japan) or too big (France) for SH rugby.

I'm 60-40 Boks. They can ALWAYS beat NZ. They can ALWAYS beat anybody. And, they are a bloody good team at the minute. Just because one team is dominant stats wise doesn't mean you can't have more than one great team in the world. SA won every game not involving NZ last year. And they're filthy about it because they're better at knocking us over than anyone. Again Ellis Park last year took a hell of a performance from NZ to not only keep from getting smashed, but to win the game. Vermeulen would be a big loss and would bring it back to 50-50, but Retallick's out so that negates a lot of play NZ make in the midfield. Shame Romano isn't fit.

disneychilly wrote:I'm 60-40 Boks. They can ALWAYS beat NZ. They can ALWAYS beat anybody. And, they are a bloody good team at the minute. Just because one team is dominant stats wise doesn't mean you can't have more than one great team in the world. SA won every game not involving NZ last year. And they're filthy about it because they're better at knocking us over than anyone. Again Ellis Park last year took a hell of a performance from NZ to not only keep from getting smashed, but to win the game. Vermeulen would be a big loss and would bring it back to 50-50, but Retallick's out so that negates a lot of play NZ make in the midfield. Shame Romano isn't fit.

Just haven't done it since 2011 when NZ brought a b team to SA... prior to that it was 2009.

Sounds a bit like the welsh saying they can beat a 3N side on their day.

to be fair in a one off match I think they would have won last year.. but they had to leave the gate open to get their hands on the RC... a mistake IMO as I think a win was more important than the RC, said it at the time but history now.

Wales aren't in the same league as SA mate

disneychilly wrote:Wales aren't in the same league as SA mate

Its like saying Liverpool aren't Burnley... still no closer to winning the premiership title mind amd knocking the kings off the top. The nearly men!!!

To be honest SA with a full strength side would take the very best NZ side to the line... but when do teams have full strength sides these days??

I remember Jonno once saying that he will be 20% down on injuries at any one time... so that's minimum 3 players missing. SA's 2nd team mind is far lesser than the 1st.

Take the backrow

Alberts, Louw & Vermuleun.... the 2nd team is Mohoje, Louw and Burger.

Compare that to England for instance

Wood, Robshaw, Vunipola.... the 2nd team is Croft, Kvesic??? and Morgan.

The SA backrow probably has the edge over England when looking at the first team but England certainly have the edge when looking at the 2nd team. The strength in depth is surprising... especially what is deemed to be the boks conveyor belt position.

Biltong wrote:I don't get nervous about the AB's anymore, I kind of expect to lose, maybe I have given up on Heyneke Meyer?

Join the club. We'll send you out the badges and posters and things by first post. BBBB is the motto.

fa0019 wrote:Take the backrow

Alberts, Louw & Vermuleun.... the 2nd team is Mohoje, Louw and Burger.

Compare that to England for instance

Wood, Robshaw, Vunipola.... the 2nd team is Croft, Kvesic??? and Morgan.

The SA backrow probably has the edge over England when looking at the first team but England certainly have the edge when looking at the 2nd team. The strength in depth is surprising... especially what is deemed to be the boks conveyor belt position.

Hmm, I figure we have better loosies than those at the moment. And the second SA team you probably mean Mohoje, Coetzee and Burger. I think Burger is there for Mohoje's sake who will probably be a regular starter in a few years time.

At the end of Heineke's tenure he will have the bragging rights to say: I chose Eben, Oupa and and Handre out of their varsity Cup teams and made them the Springboks they are today. Honestly Mohoje's game did get significantly better with just the few weeks he had under Heineke. If you look at his small previous stints I would say he definitely grew, but he still isn't the best that is currently available. And I would say the same about Handre, Lambie just looks so much more composed - except for the kicking part.

If Heineke's gamble is going to succeed he is going to be labled as a rugby genius, if not he was just blooding some talent that did not pan out. Eben already worked out for him

Mahoje is a good player, hasn't hit the game by storm but few players do.

As you said, typo on Coetzee but he doesn't fill you with the same level of confidence as Louw.

Burger is not the player he was... Committed but prior to 2012 he never got dumped, never got physically over powered bar by Henry Tuilagi.... now its every other player.

Eben was an easy choice.... even PDV would rave over him.

Oupa... I'd prefer Kolisi myself for his defence as Mohoje doesn't offer a schalk/Alberts like grunt going forward.

Handre - He's been playing for the bulls so its not like he was picked out.

I also think he's been very naïve keeping hold of chaps like Matfield, Du Preez, Jannie, Beast, Morne and the 13 issue is big. Who plays as at the moment he's filling the most important defensive position with make-shifts... and Serfontein aged 22 getting gassed by a 30+ utility player not known for his wheels is very very worrying. If I were NZ I'd be throwing Savea through that channel on the shoulder move after move as it doesn't matter who you are, if you don't have pace your tackling prowess is useless.

To be honest I'm not a fan of Meyer.

He's conservative with a capital C.

Reminds me of Jonno as a coach... looks unsure of what to do so goes back to the party faithful of yesteryear... who can do a job but 2 years ago we all stressed that his patch work then would have bad results.... and now his chickens have come home to roost so to speak.

Meyer is the second most succesful bok coach since readmission.

Oupa also played for the cheetahs so he was also not picked directly from the Varsity Cup either. But he and Handre was chosen a bit out of obscurity. Okay Handre was Man of the Tournament for the Junior World Cup, but that still doesn't mean he automatically go to the Big league.  There must be something Meyer likes about them.

But I would also have given Kolisi (I am a WP supporter so I might be biased) the go ahead, but then again, Kolisi is smaller and Meyer doesn't like the small guys.

disneychilly wrote:Wales aren't in the same league as SA mate

Yes they are.

Oh sorry I forgot about the "on their day" spiel.

rainbow-warrior wrote:

disneychilly wrote:Wales aren't in the same league as SA mate

Yes they are.

well technically Burnley are in the same league as Man Utd, Liverpool, Chelsea, Arsenal and Man City too.

Looking at the teams etc. first SA are at home and on the veldt so they should be better
acclimatised.SA unchanged IF Vermulen makes it NZ due to IRB rules no specialst lock
cover.

NZ side Moody,the Brothers Grimm and Faumina are all good props,when Moody started
for Kung fu Panda v Argentina etc.Scrum wasn`t weakened if anything strengthened
Whitelock and Kaino were absent versus SA in Wellington.

Whitelock v Matfield will be interesting don`t think Victor will have it all his own way
Thrush may well equal Estebert.Read/Kaino are both lineout options and either COULD
serve at Lock on ashort time basis.

Bench Messam to counter Burger excellent move,Coles and Crotty most jetlagged from
bench also sensible.Slade at 10 no problem or 15 come to that Crotty 12/13 again no
problem.

From last weeks showing the few Scrums in Boks match them disintergrating versus
an OZ Scrum they have problems too.

SA aren't a team to be counted out at home to anyone. But given that they were in better form last year and lost to NZ at Ellis Park (supposedly one of rugby's toughest venues to win at) regardless, it's hard to see them spoiling the party.

Boks v AB games are always 50:50 with me despite the recent record. Looking forward to this w/e. Can see a toight one. Squeak squeak.

Bit OT (sorry)

Savea v Lomu



http://m.nzherald.co.nz/sport/news/article.cfm?c_id=4&objectid=11336261

You know, I actually think Savea is a better player. Maybe he isn't the 'super star causing shift in how rugby is played/perceived' that Lomu was. But I honestly think Savea ticks more boxes and can also do things that Lomu did (like run over players like last week, déjà vu). I know theres the old can't compare eras argument blah blah. But hey, these players are more similar than say mccaw v jones are right?

Savea might be a better player, but he is definitely not greater.  One of SA's greatest players greatest feat was to tackle Lomu. Joost tackle on Lomu is still in many Springbok fans memory.  If someone tackles Savea, it is not going to have the same impact. Jona revolutionized the game, Savea just refined it a bit more.

Edit: We also started the trend to put more people on Jona, because we couldn't compete one on one vs Jona, that is why the Joost tackle became so legendary. After we did it most people followed the same tactic. Does people do the same with Savea?

Hello I've just found this forum so this is my first post.

The outcome of the game will depend on South African tactics in my opinion.

We know what NZ will try to do. They will try to unsettle the defence with a short tactical kicking game, then exploit uncertainty in the line with Fekitowa, Savea, Smiths and Dag.

Last time they played the springbok back three had a poor game. The kick chase was ordinary, and Willie le Roux in particular lost composure. He looked startled and starstruck, he pushed passes took bad options and his basic skills deserted him.

By rights South Africa should have won after ceasing the initiative in the second half but, losing can be a habit and that showed as they conspired to botch their last minute opportunities.

What I don't get is why nobody noticed how vulnerable nz are when the opposition keeps ball in hand and use the direct route.

Argentina all but scored two tries in two minutes last week, and the one loss of hansens reign came at the hands of fearless England who smashed the All Blacks in the mid field.

If South Africa revert to the conservative territorial pressure game they will probably come second best.

With NZ resting the powerful Retallick, punishing Cruden, taking a gamble on Fekitowa and Barrett; relying on old and inconsistent Melama in the front row then SA need to go hard with ball in hand but be far more direct than they were in NZ. Then I believe NZ will crumble. Barrett is prone to stage fright and doesn't have the composure of Cruden. Thrush is no more than a stop gap.

Nz have become arrogant in their success and rested and rearranged too much for this game. They haven't respected the Africans no matter what they say and it's time they were found out wanting for it.

I've just read that back and it's waffle. Sorry first post anxiety.

What I'm saying is that South Africa are showing NZ too much respect and NZ showing too little of their old foes at the temple of African rugby.

If SA grow a pair and take up it the guts they'll come out on top.

Something to ponder, the injuries in the Bok camp this year and poor performances from a few individuals has made a bit of a mockery with continuity in selections.

The team playing this weekend is decidedly different from the one that played last year. Perhaps a reason why the Boks were so inconsistent this year, and struggling to click as a unit.

Starting 15 of Ellispark last year vs tomorrow.

15 Zane Kirchner – Willie le ROux
14 Willie le Roux – Cornal Hendricks
13 JJ Engelbrecht – Jan Serfontein
12 Jean de Villiers (c)
11 Bryan Habana
10 Morne Steyn – Handre Pollard
9 Fourie du Preez – Francois Hougaard
1 Tendai Mtawarira
2 Bismarck du Plessis
3 Jannie du Plessis
4 Eben Etzebeth
5 Juandre Kruger – VIctor Matfield
6 Francois Louw – Marcell Coetzee
7 Willem Alberts – Oupa Mahoje
8 Duane Vermeulen – Schalk Burger

Quite right in that the Argies walked through the All Black defense almost on command, many times from deep in their own half. But it's worth noting that their Ball handling, and transition play skillset has probably already eclipsed ours. And they still got torn to ribbons.

SA can play at pace though-just because it's not as expansive as NZ doesn't mean it's not as quick. Plus they're used to defending against NZ-no side is better at stifling the Kiwi attack. I actually think if they play to their strengths they'll stand a much better chance instead of opening it up. This isn't to stay they don't have great weapons out wide-we all know they do-but the lack of need to get four tries will help them hugely.

I find the comment about NZ being arrogant in their success and resting and rearranging too much for this game total BS to be frank. Retallick's concussed, Crockett's face is cut and they rewarded Fekitoa's form. The latter two are replacing long term first picks who are out injured.

Barrett prone to stage fright hey-well JDV did run over him this time last year but his actions there (and in Dublin) pretty much contradict that as far as I'm concerned.

NZ know that their chances will come. SA to win probably have to keep things tight and make every kick count yet the doors will eventually open and that's when SA lost last year and where NZ score so many of their tries... counter-attacks on turnovers.

SA need to win the match more than NZ do and that's why I think all NZ need to do is sit and wait.

Still FA if SA are really accurate tomorrow it may be a bad strategy-you can't afford to be passive against the Boks they'll kill you.

SA needing to win the match more than NZ I think is an advantage to SA. The more desperate side usually comes out on top here. Think Ellis Park in the 96 series.

disneychilly wrote:Wales aren't in the same league as SA mate

Where has this come from ? This is a rather random thing to just come out with on a Boks and AB thread.

LD - It was mentioned that for all their success against other teams, their record in recent years vs. NZ has been dreadful and that they're as likely to beat NZ as the welsh.

Firstly on the Lomu v Savea argument Lomu only had 2 seasons when he was relatively fit
Jeff Wilson was considered the better winger.Lomu was a Tactical innovation a Hennie Muller
in reverse so to speak.Given his crippling disability his achievements are awesome.

As written before the Boks at Ellis Park,relatively speaking rested,at a ground that is one
of there fortresses and with a Ref who`s a "Homer"all the advantages.

Forget all previous Games, each Game analysed depends on the mindset and context
of that game.Take Wellington, SA had just come of a series of wet weather games in
which they struggled.A narrow win,an unconvincing win ,a narrow loss another wet
weather game.The Context limit the AB`s scoring opportunities ,keep the score board
ticking.I don`t think they expected the win BUT they achieved there aim an away bonus
point.

In the context of the RC two bonus point wins and the RC was still winnable then versus
Aus.the context changed.A bonus point win mean`t UNLESS the AB`s got a bonus point
win the RC was again winnable .

Likewise versus ARG. Nz went for the throat from the first minute should have had at
least 2 more tries result never in doubt.They would almost certainly have gone up a
gear had ARG scored earlier.

Tactical kicking SA v Aus was in some cases ridiculous from Both Sides kicking ball
down each others throat in a kicking dual.Nz used grubber/chip kicks rather than the
up and under.

Both sides know the others capabilities and vulnreabilities the analyst s video`d will
show that.FORGET every other game this is a one off either side can win it BOTH
sides have the greatest respects for the others abilities.

IF the Boks win then the media will have a field day "aura broken","On the slide"
McCaw past it etc.NO team is invincible all lose at some point this AB SQUAD not
TEAM has just played one game at a time.Injuries another player steps in and does
a job quietly or brilliantly no matter they do it.What happens means nothing to NZ
win or lose in the greater scheme of things whatever result.They will pick over the
bones and try and improve on there game.

emack2 wrote:Firstly on the Lomu v Savea argument Lomu only had 2 seasons when he was relatively fit
Jeff Wilson was considered the better winger.Lomu was a Tactical innovation a Hennie Muller
in reverse so to speak.Given his crippling disability his achievements are awesome.

As written before the Boks at Ellis Park,relatively speaking rested,at a ground that is one
of there fortresses and with a Ref who`s a "Homer"all the advantages.

Forget all previous Games, each Game analysed depends on the mindset and context
of that game.Take Wellington, SA had just come of a series of wet weather games in
which they struggled.A narrow win,an unconvincing win ,a narrow loss another wet
weather game.The Context limit the AB`s scoring opportunities ,keep the score board
ticking.I don`t think they expected the win BUT they achieved there aim an away bonus
point.

In the context of the RC two bonus point wins and the RC was still winnable then versus
Aus.the context changed.A bonus point win mean`t UNLESS the AB`s got a bonus point
win the RC was again winnable .

Likewise versus ARG. Nz went for the throat from the first minute should have had at
least 2 more tries result never in doubt.They would almost certainly have gone up a
gear had ARG scored earlier.

Tactical kicking SA v Aus was in some cases ridiculous from Both Sides kicking ball
down each others throat in a kicking dual.Nz used grubber/chip kicks rather than the
up and under.

Both sides know the others capabilities and vulnreabilities the analyst s video`d will
show that.FORGET every other game this is a one off either side can win it BOTH
sides have the greatest respects for the others abilities.

IF the Boks win then the media will have a field day "aura broken","On the slide"
McCaw past it etc.NO team is invincible all lose at some point this AB SQUAD not
TEAM has just played one game at a time.Injuries another player steps in and does
a job quietly or brilliantly no matter they do it.What happens means nothing to NZ
win or lose in the greater scheme of things whatever result.They will pick over the
bones and try and improve on there game.

Wilson was no way a better player.

Perhaps he had better all round skills but in terms of his impact on a game, no one comes close to Lomu. No one has since and I doubt no one will for a very long time... Lomu is similar to Usain Bolt... he is a once in a multi-generation talent.

Lomu made tries out of nothing... on his own.

Wilson could kick, pass, run, tackle, score... but he couldn't do the above... and that's what set Lomu above the rest. Everyone says, ah but its a pro game now... that is a man who on half a kidney ran through about 10 French players and bounced off Vickery, Jonno, Dillaglio and Hill in one move. He would be just as effective in the modern game.

Perhaps Jason Robinson and Caucau at his finest were the closest anyone has come to that accolade.

Savea...top class winger. Better than Lomu.... well better than Rokocoko but nowhere near the great man.

Of the wingers I have seen, I think Savea will eventually be in the Robinson, Caucau bracket, Lomu being in a class of his own based only on highlights videos admittedly

BamBam wrote:Of the wingers I have seen, I think Savea will eventually be in the Robinson, Caucau bracket, Lomu being in a class of his own based only on highlights videos admittedly

He was a giant of the game. A lot of players around the world owe their careers to how he helped to bring the game kicking and screaming into the pro era. It would have been pro sure but the PR would have been that much less.

NZ wingers on the opposite side had it so easy. Lomu would smash the gainline with 3-4 players on his back and had he not scored, at the next recycle... you could have driven a tank through the space.

PS - forget the try highlight, watch games with full 90 to understand his greatness. What he did for his team was outstanding. You had a whole load of players who got in on the next recycle who would grab the headlines due to the work Lomu would do.

Probably true at domestic level. But Cullen didn't need Lomu creating space to get his headlines. He's the best runner with the ball I've ever seen. Wilson wasn't too bad either.

disneychilly wrote:Probably true at domestic level. But Cullen didn't need Lomu creating space to get his headlines. He's the best runner with the ball I've ever seen. Wilson wasn't too bad either.

I would actually take your point Disney on adding Cullen in his early years to that of Caucau and Robinson as the next best we saw.

Interesting that Cullen, Lomu, Caucau actually had very short careers at the top. Robinson about the same but he was already a league legend by the time he came mid-career into union.

It's weird how Habana is the best fetcher we have. Of course by weird I mean, a real problem.

Not sure why but New Zealand are really vulnerable in the opposition 22

Forward pass there by Hendricks though. Ref was never gonna see it though

Maybe it's just me and I'm imagining it.... but Jannie du Plessis does seem to fail the Einstein test quite often for a qualified doctor.Control your Id man!

Varsity Cup Rugby must be of a higher level than I previously thought. That being the case, I got a mate who should be playing Firsts for Potch, Manie Fourie. Expect to see him as a Bok in a few

Pollard is bossing this.

All Blacks getting frenetic