Aviva Premiership Round Six

by **Ozzy3213** Mon 06 Oct 2014, 1:59 pm

First topic message reminder :

So round five produced yet more excitement as what is shaping up to be a great season continued at a pace. On Friday night Bath Rugby laid down another marker, ending Saracens unbeaten start to the season at The Rec, and temporarily put themselves back at the top of the table. Saturdays games saw Quins get back on track, nilling a hapless Welsh side who look to be relegated, even this early in the season, Saints edged out Irish in a tight affair were defences were on top, and Gloucester heaped more misery on Tigers with a comfortable win at Kingsholm. Sundays offering saw Sale Sharks get one over on Wasps, to keep the middle of the table tight, and Newcastle ended their 20 game losing streak by beating high flying Exeter Chiefs at Kingston Park.

Predictions wise, it was 5 from 6 for me this week on here, with Tigers letting me down. I was only 4 from 6 elsewhere (the bookies) as I can't bet against my own team!

So here's the table after round 5;-

POS	TEAM	P	W	D	L	PF	PA	DIFF	TF	TA	TBP	LBP	PTS
1.	Northampton Saints	5	4	0	1	154	72	+82	18	6	3	1	20
2.	Bath Rugby	5	4	0	1	172	88	+84	19	11	2	1	19
3.	Saracens	5	4	0	1	160	100	+60	15	12	2	0	18
4.	Exeter Chiefs	5	3	0	2	157	88	+69	16	9	1	2	15
5.	Gloucester	5	3	0	2	141	131	+10	15	15	1	1	14
6.	Harlequins	5	3	0	2	111	113	-2	12	9	1	0	13
7.	London Irish	5	2	0	3	101	112	-11	7	10	1	3	12
8.	Sale Sharks	5	2	0	3	137	125	+12	18	12	2	1	11
9	Wasps	5	2	0	3	120	119	+1	14	12	1	2	11
10.	Leicester Tigers	5	2	0	3	95	137	-42	8	13	1	1	10
11.	Newcastle Falcons	5	1	0	4	92	150	-58	11	17	0	1	5
12.	London Welsh	5	0	0	5	44	249	-205	6	33	1	0	1

On to this weeks fixtures;-

Friday 10th October 2014 19:45 Leicester Tigers vs. Harlequins

Back at Welford Road after three straight defeats, Tigers will be desperate to win this one, but will need to be a whole lot better than they were against Gloucester to do so. Quins will be buoyed by their nilling of Welsh, but that result will have little bearing on this game in reality. It's not easy to call this one, but I can't see Tigers losing a second one on the bounce at home, so am going for a Tigers win with a Quins losing bonus point in a scrappy game.

Saturday 11th October 2014 14:30 London Welsh vs. Newcastle Falcons

This is seriously must win for Welsh, even at this early stage of the season. Falcons are now up and running after beating the Chiefs, and if they can back that up this weekend with another win there will be clear daylight between themselves and Welsh, and it's tough to see where Welsh will make up the points at this stage. Having said that, Welsh will know that this is it, they have to step up now. They will need to keep in the game against a Falcons side that will come with renewed confidence, and will have to close things out better. I can't see it. For Falcons fans this one will be like London buses, you wait forever for one and then two come along at once.

Saturday 11th October 2014 15:00 Exeter Chiefs vs. London Irish

Two sides off the back of defeats last week and both will be keen to finish this block of Premiership games on a high. Both had plenty of the ball at the weekend but couldn't quite get the job done, and whoever is going to win this one will need to be more clinical. On paper the sides are evenly matched and both have exceeded most peoples pre season expectations of them. I can't quantify why really, but I just fancy us to win this one, will be tight though and I expect the Chiefs to be within 7 at the death.

Saturday 11th October 2014 15:00 Saracens vs. Gloucester

Gloucester have been really up and down this season, but have picked up a couple of good wins on the way. Saracens I don't think have really hit top gear yet, but have had too much for everyone bar an in form Bath last week. Back at Allianz Park, they won't want to lose two on the bounce, and I don't think Gloucester are yet in a place to go there and beat them. I think Saracens will go up a notch in preparation for their European game the following week, and will send Gloucester back west with nothing, whilst notching up a try bonus point themselves.

Saturday 11th October 2014 15:15 Northampton Saints vs. Sale Sharks

Sale had a good win yesterday, but Saints are a whole different prospect to Wasps and this will be a much tougher proposition for them. Saints don't lose many at the Gardens and will want to consolidate their position at the top of the table with another win before the European break. Sale will need their pack to give them a platform and if they do, then in Danny Cipriani they have a 10 who could pull of a win for them. Sadly for them, I see the Saints pack dominating, and if that happens they will win this one comfortably, and with bonus point.

Sunday 12th October 2014 14:00 Wasps vs. Bath Rugby

Bath are flying high right now, and will fancy picking up an away win here. In Ford, Eastmond and Joseph they have the in form 10-12-13 combination in the league, if not the northern hemisphere. Wasps don't quite seem to know what their best back line is just yet, and as shown yesterday, their biggest weapons can also be their biggest weaknesses, as we saw with Christian Wade scoring a great try, but also handing Sale one on a plate. If they make errors defensively like that against Bath they'll get punished. This looks a high scorer to me, possibly 5 points for Bath, and 2 for Wasps.

Ozzy's predicted table after round 6;-

Northampton Saints 25, Bath Rugby 24, Saracens 23, Exeter Chiefs 16, London Irish 16, Gloucester 14, Harlequins 14, Leicester Tigers 14, Wasps 13, Sale Sharks 11, Newcastle Falcons 10, London Welsh 1.

by doctor_grey Thu 09 Oct 2014, 1:42 am

Leicester Tigers vs. Harlequins
For me, this is a bit difficult to call. Both teams are below expectation. Quins off serious form and Tigers with a monster injury list. I think Welford Road is the difference.
Leicester by 7

London Welsh vs. Newcastle Falcons
The average score of a London Welsh match so far this season is 50-9 against. They are on target to have the worst season in Premiership history. Newcastle are not. The big question is whether Newcastle are able to get the 4 try bonus point. Not sure about that.
Newcastle by 25.

Exeter Chiefs vs. London Irish
Two teams I find difficult to read this season. Are they good or mid-table? Lots of potential at Exe and London Irish appear on the up. Home ground is the difference for me.
Exe by 10.

Saracens vs. Gloucester
Sarries hit their stride at home. Gloucester won't know what hit them. I think this match is more about Saracens than Gloucester.
Saracens by 25.

Northampton Saints vs. Sale Sharks
Saints are reverting to form of previous seasons where they sleep through parts of matches. So far this season that is mostly away from the Gardens. So I see a nice win, but not an easy one.
Saints by 14.

Wasps vs. Bath Rugby
Who knows what is going on at Wasps? We know what is going on at Bath.
Bath by 10.

by yappysnap Thu 09 Oct 2014, 6:43 am

How happy would Falcons fans be to get a win and a 4 try bonus point this weekend? Surely that'd be the first time in the clubs history?? Wink

by **Ozzy3213** Thu 09 Oct 2014, 8:04 am

It will be interesting to see what, if any, affect the impending move to Coventry has on the Wasps players. Will the major upheaval make them unsettled and form dip, galvanise them and form improve, or no nothing at all.

by Geordie Thu 09 Oct 2014, 8:42 am

Ill just settle for another win Yappy...if we lose to Welsh..

a) It renders last weeks win meaningless
b) Means we are utter horsesh$t!

by yappysnap Thu 09 Oct 2014, 9:00 am

Ozzy3213 wrote:It will be interesting to see what, if any, affect the impending move to Coventry has on the Wasps players. Will the major upheaval make them unsettled and form dip, galvanise them and form improve, or no nothing at all.

I don't think we'll see any change yet, but once they do move I worry they'll drop right back to where they were a couple of years back, propping up the table and counting on someone else being crappier to keep them in it. All with about 3000 fans watching

by yappysnap Thu 09 Oct 2014, 9:01 am

GeordieFalcon wrote:Ill just settle for another win Yappy...if we lose to Welsh..

a) It renders last weeks win meaningless
b) Means we are utter horsesh$t!

Looking at it another way, you guys just pulled off a brilliant backs to the wall win against Exeter, when you needed it most the players managed to make it happen. It isn't totally inconcievable that Welsh may manage the same thing this weekend. Pressure can do funny things.

by Geordie Thu 09 Oct 2014, 9:15 am

Thats very true....but to be honest Yappy this season at times we have looked good in certain areas whilst others have looked rubbish.

Exeter we finally played as a complete team for 80mins.

We have been due a victory but we have also let ourselves down at times with some attrocious rugby.

For all i query Dean Richards now...i still have faith of what hes trying to achieve...and maybe now we will see it beginning to come through. Hopefully that win will give us some confidence. I do expect us to beat Welsh and we have scored some decnt tries this season despite the loses...so not sure if we would get a BP or not.
Like i say...i just want a win for the moment.

I still dont like John Wells though...would like to see him shipped out ASAP.

by **LondonTiger** Thu 09 Oct 2014, 9:33 am

Ozzy3213 wrote:It will be interesting to see what, if any, affect the impending move to Coventry has on the Wasps players. Will the major upheaval make them unsettled and form dip, galvanise them and form improve, or no nothing at all.

Apparently the threat of mass redundancies before the end of the season was a real possibility. Players are probably less unsettled by moving than losing their job.

by lostinwales Thu 09 Oct 2014, 10:08 am

LondonTiger wrote:
Ozzy3213 wrote:It will be interesting to see what, if any, affect the impending move to Coventry has on the Wasps players. Will the major upheaval make them unsettled and form dip, galvanise them and form improve, or no nothing at all.

Apparently the threat of mass redundancies before the end of the season was a real possibility. Players are probably less unsettled by moving than losing their job.

There was an interview with Hask in the metro this morning. The headline was that they were hours away from going bust.

by Geordie Thu 09 Oct 2014, 10:11 am

Why are Wasps in such a financial situation?

by doctor_grey Thu 09 Oct 2014, 10:22 am

LondonTiger wrote:
Ozzy3213 wrote:It will be interesting to see what, if any, affect the impending move to Coventry has on the Wasps players. Will the major upheaval make them unsettled and form dip, galvanise them and form improve, or no nothing at all.

Apparently the threat of mass redundancies before the end of the season was a real possibility. Players are probably less unsettled by moving than losing their job.

I'd agree, but I think it still must be unsettling to a degree because most people in the Wasps organisation, including the players, will have to move up north. The odd thing with stress and uncertainty is that how people react to it is unpredictable. I suppose the rest of this season for Wasps will be interesting to see.

Wasps have been reported on the financial edge for quite a while now.

by sad_gimp Thu 09 Oct 2014, 10:23 am

Quins scrum problem is Sinckler at the moment. He'll come good though. Marler and JJ were penalty machines for a season or two. Massive step up from academy to the AP which is basically international standard scrimmaging.....I don't recall any youngsters that have come in and been solid from day 1.

by Lowlandbrit Thu 09 Oct 2014, 10:34 am

doctor_grey wrote:I think it still must be unsettling to a degree because most people in the Wasps organisation, including the players, will have to move up north.

Isn't the idea that they'll still be based in London for the time being, and will just travel up for games?

by formerly known as Sam Thu 09 Oct 2014, 10:58 am

Tigers will hopefully have Ayerza in the front row so with a bit of luck he can give Sinckler a lesson and we can have a scrum that functions. Balmain will have to have a good day against Marler though. Probably the only area of the pitch where we'll have a chance based on current form.

by Geordie Thu 09 Oct 2014, 11:03 am

It'll be interesting to see if Wasps keep their players (or most of them) beyond the end of this season.

The likes of Launchbury have already had the rumours of moves to Sarries...it might make the move more set in stone.

Who else will have moves planned? Im sure quins wouldnt mind Hughes or Johnson...
In fact most prem sides would be crying out for either of those!

by lostinwales Thu 09 Oct 2014, 11:29 am

GeordieFalcon wrote:It'll be interesting to see if Wasps keep their players (or most of them) beyond the end of this season.

The likes of Launchbury have already had the rumours of moves to Sarries...it might make the move more set in stone.

Who else will have moves planned? Im sure quins wouldnt mind Hughes or Johnson...
In fact most prem sides would be crying out for either of those!

Yes if they are living in West London they could move clubs without moving home.

by SirBurger Thu 09 Oct 2014, 11:40 am

I find it strange that Wasps were apparently in dire financial straits before the season and yet still probably made some of the biggest name signings over the summer...

by **LondonTiger** Thu 09 Oct 2014, 12:19 pm

Leicester Tigers (v Harlequins, Welford Road, Friday 7.45pm)
15 Mathew Tait
14 Blaine Scully
13 Manusamoa Tuilagi
12 Owen Williams
11 Vereniki Goneva
10 Freddie Burns
9 Ben Youngs (c)
1 Michele Rizzo
2 Leonardo Ghiraldini
3 Fraser Balmain
4 Brad Thorn
5 Graham Kitchener
6 Jamie Gibson
7 Julian Salvi
8 Jordan Crane

Replacements
16 Neil Briggs
17 Marcos Ayerza
18 Tiziano Pasquali
19 Sebastian de Chaves
20 Robert Barbieri
21 David Mele
22 Sam Harrison
23 Miles Benjamin

by Welly Thu 09 Oct 2014, 12:20 pm

I would take that team.

But we all know that isn't going to be one playing.

Tait will be out and most likely Manu.

by lostinwales Thu 09 Oct 2014, 12:21 pm

LondonTiger wrote:Leicester Tigers (v Harlequins, Welford Road, Friday 7.45pm)
15 Mathew Tait
14 Blaine Scully
13 Manusamoa Tuilagi
12 Owen Williams
11 Vereniki Goneva
10 Freddie Burns
9 Ben Youngs (c)
1 Michele Rizzo
2 Leonardo Ghiraldini
3 Fraser Balmain
4 Brad Thorn
5 Graham Kitchener
6 Jamie Gibson
7 Julian Salvi
8 Jordan Crane

Replacements
16 Neil Briggs
17 Marcos Ayerza
18 Tiziano Pasquali
19 Sebastian de Chaves
20 Robert Barbieri
21 David Mele
22 Sam Harrison
23 Miles Benjamin

Does that mean Tait had a miraculous recovery? last I saw said 7 weeks.

by Bathite Thu 09 Oct 2014, 12:22 pm

Quins by 50 welly?

by Welly Thu 09 Oct 2014, 12:23 pm

No by 20 -30.

Ayerza will stop it getting to 50.

Wink

Although I think Quins by 10 is the lily score.

by HongKongCherry Thu 09 Oct 2014, 12:33 pm

I'm amazed Tigers are sticking with Burns and Williams at 10 & 12. I know Goneva was all at sea in the defensive line up, but surely it would have been better to have him and Tuilagi in the centres? But as stated above, this probably won't be the team starting anyway!

by **LondonTiger** Thu 09 Oct 2014, 12:35 pm

Matt Smith will play at 13 and Scully at 15 with Benjamin coming in on the wing.

by lostinwales Thu 09 Oct 2014, 12:35 pm

SirBurger wrote:I find it strange that Wasps were apparently in dire financial straits before the season and yet still probably made some of the biggest name signings over the summer...

yes. Best guess is that sugardaddy has deep pockets but limited patience

by **LondonTiger** Thu 09 Oct 2014, 12:40 pm

What were the big name signings Wasps made?

Sugar daddy probably has very shallow pockets. Otherwise he would be looking to wait till a chance in London came to fruition. The key thing in the move seems to have been the breakdown in talks with Brentford.

by Welly Thu 09 Oct 2014, 12:43 pm

LondonTiger wrote:Matt Smith will play at 13 and Scully at 15 with Benjamin coming in on the wing.

Smith is injured I believe think he has done his knee.

I think....

by lostinwales Thu 09 Oct 2014, 12:44 pm

LondonTiger wrote:What were the big name signings Wasps made?

Sugar daddy probably has very shallow pockets. Otherwise he would be looking to wait till a chance in London came to fruition. The key thing in the move seems to have been the breakdown in talks with Brentford.

I am sure you are correct but they still had to find someone, or make a case to the bank, to raise the money for buying their share of the Ricoh. And its 50% now but they are looking to increase that in the future

by **LondonTiger** Thu 09 Oct 2014, 12:51 pm

Welly wrote:
LondonTiger wrote:Matt Smith will play at 13 and Scully at 15 with Benjamin coming in on the wing.

Smith is injured I believe think he has done his knee.

I think....

Aha - that explains mele and Harrison on bench.

by Welly Thu 09 Oct 2014, 12:52 pm

Could also mean that we will get to see Harrison start in the centres which will be interesting.

by HongKongCherry Thu 09 Oct 2014, 12:53 pm

LondonTiger wrote:What were the big name signings Wasps made?

Sugar daddy probably has very shallow pockets. Otherwise he would be looking to wait till a chance in London came to fruition. The key thing in the move seems to have been the breakdown in talks with Brentford.

I'm not sure they signed any truly world class players, but they did recruit very strongly over the summer. Bradley Davies and Alapati Leuia would not have come cheap and I'm sure there would have been other clubs after the likes of Gaskell, Miller and Cittadini.

I agree that the Brentford issue seems to be the downfall, however, from what I've heard so far there is a feeling that alternative London options weren't explored in depth before the Coventry move was considered.

by Welly Thu 09 Oct 2014, 12:55 pm

Would say Ashley Johnson was a big name signing, (well if you had watched super rugby) could picture a few French clubs who would have been after him.

by **Ozzy3213** Thu 09 Oct 2014, 1:11 pm

If the sides that have been announced take to the field tomorrow night, I'm going Tigers by 10.

by **LondonTiger** Thu 09 Oct 2014, 1:14 pm

Welly wrote:Would say Ashley Johnson was a big name signing, (well if you had watched super rugby) could picture a few French clubs who would have been after him.

Johnson did not come in the summer though. Had forgotten about Bradley Davies - has he played?

by Geordie Thu 09 Oct 2014, 1:35 pm

i wouldnt be surprised to see a few of them leaving now though.

They may not want to leave london or have to travel those distances to commute...and who wants to live in Coventry! Wink

Having said that....leicester aint much better... Whistle

by bluestonevedder Thu 09 Oct 2014, 1:41 pm

I'm surprised to see Mathew Tait starting this Friday. I thought he was due for a long break after the injury scare on Saturday.

by Poorfour Thu 09 Oct 2014, 3:34 pm

mid_gen wrote:Quins scrum problem is Sinckler at the moment. He'll come good though. Marler and JJ were penalty machines for a season or two. Massive step up from academy to the AP which is basically international standard scrimmaging.....I don't recall any youngsters that have come in and been solid from day 1.

Sinckler improved dramatically last week when the ref told him to stop boring in and he actually listened. He's strong enough that if he pushes straight he can hold up against most people. As you say, he can learn.

by Guest Thu 09 Oct 2014, 3:55 pm

Setting myself up for disappointment here but I do think we'll be seeing Manu this week. Would dramatically increase the chances of picking up a win but the Burns-Williams combo is still too much of a problem for me. I too felt like Harrison might have been given the chance at 12 just from his attitude alone, but starting at 9 in the A league probably suggests otherwise.

As for Tait, I'm absolutely stumped. After all the reports of him being out for 7 weeks minimum there's no way Quins could ever be fooled into believing he will actually start, so what could there possibly be to gain from such a ruse? Unless the reports were completely unfounded and he is fit. Oh I don't know, I'm no where near clever enough to work this out. The sooner this Love sacks ends the better imo.

Gone for Quins by 14 as they always bloody win even when the team isn't in a bit of a state. All i'm really hoping for is a performance to leave me more optimistic for next week.

Anyway, just so you can all achieve perfection on SuperBru this week (you are most welcome, of course)...

Quins by 14
Welsh by 3
Chiefs by 10
Sarries by 18
Saints by 17
Coventry by 4

by Geordie Thu 09 Oct 2014, 4:26 pm

Quins by 14
Welsh by 3
Chiefs by 10
Sarries by 18
Saints by 17
Coventry by 4

Interesting you think Welsh will improve this weekend? Or do you just think we're that bad?

by **Ozzy3213** Thu 09 Oct 2014, 4:28 pm

I suspect that Fuzzy is seeing a backs to the wall rearguard, premiership life depending on it action from Welsh, as opposed to any failing on Falcons part.

by Geordie Thu 09 Oct 2014, 4:43 pm

Well yes that is a strong possibility.

I obviously hope not, and we also have big Kolo'ufai back from injury and will probably be on the bench which is another boost as he looked a monster in his pre season game before he got injured.

Also nice to hear that Zac Kibirige will finally be back in November. So he may get the odd little run out soon...

by Guest Thu 09 Oct 2014, 5:02 pm

Well to be perfectly honest the main reason is that each week I like to go for at least one funky result that goes against all the evidence. Keeps things on t'bru exciting. I've been itching to go for Welsh, given that it's a guaranteed 2 points minimum should they win as no one else is going for them.

Had Falcons not beaten Exeter last week I never would have given Welsh a chance. As they did it just feels more like a must win game for them than it does for Newcastle. Fighting for survival, backs against the wall (as above) and all that. I don't for one second think Welsh will be anywhere near whoever is 11th come the end of the season.

by **Ozzy3213** Thu 09 Oct 2014, 5:05 pm

I scored well on Bru last week, as I think I was part of a very small minority who correctly tipped the Falcons.

by yappysnap Thu 09 Oct 2014, 5:20 pm

HARLEQUINS HAS ANNOUNCED THE SIDE TO PLAY LEICESTER TIGERS AT WELFORD ROAD TOMORROW EVENING IN ROUND 6 OF THE AVIVA PREMIERSHIP.

The match is being shown live on BT Sport, kick-off 19:45.

There is just one change to the starting team which beat London Welsh last week as Will Collier starts in the front row.

Following 50 minutes in the Aviva ‘A’ League on Monday night, centre George Lowe is named among the replacements and will look to make his first senior appearance for the club since September 2013.

Harlequins Team

15. Mike Brown
14. Marland Yarde
13. Matt Hopper
12. Tom Casson
11. Aseli Tikoirotuma
10. Nick Evans
9. Danny Care

1. Joe Marler©
2. Joe Gray
3. Will Collier
4. Charlie Matthews
5. George Robson
6. Luke Wallace
7. Chris Robshaw
8. Nick Easter

16. Dave Ward
17. Mark Lambert
18. Kyle Sinckler
19. Sam Twomey
20. Joe Trayfoot
21. Karl Dickson
22. George Lowe
23. Ollie Lindsay-Hague

GEORGE LOWE!!!

Great to see him back for this, just in time for the RWC

by Welly Thu 09 Oct 2014, 7:30 pm

Quins by 23

by sad_gimp Thu 09 Oct 2014, 8:11 pm

I think this Friday will be a defining moment for quins/tigers season. As long as there's some quality on display and we can sort out our handling I'd even settle for a quins LBP as long as it's hard fought

by ChequeredJersey Thu 09 Oct 2014, 11:46 pm

Welly wrote:Ayerza is back looks like he will play Friday.

We all know that until the match itself has started and those players actually get on the pitch, the fact that Cockerill has put them on his teamsheet means little and less

by doctor_grey Fri 10 Oct 2014, 10:00 am

Agree, hard to know who is still able to play and who cannot. It would be very interesting to examine why their injury list is so large.

by **LondonTiger** Fri 10 Oct 2014, 10:33 am

doctor_grey wrote:Agree, hard to know who is still able to play and who cannot. It would be very interesting to examine why their injury list is so large.

There is no simple or single answer. We do however over a number of years seem to have had a large number of injuries amongst new joiners.

Slater and Thompstone both required surgery following duty for England teams. Matera for Argentina.
Parling has concussion.
Cole and Deacon longstanding spinal issues.
Rizzo, Thorn, Bai, Loamanu did not arrive fit.
Youngs, Morris, Smith, Benjamin and Tait were injured playing.
Allen was a training strain.

Oh and Manu.

He lost his virginity and pulled a groin muscle.

by lostinwales Fri 10 Oct 2014, 10:35 am

LondonTiger wrote:
doctor_grey wrote:Agree, hard to know who is still able to play and who cannot. It would be very interesting to examine why their injury list is so large.

There is no simple or single answer. We do however over a number of years seem to have had a large number of injuries amongst new joiners.

Slater and Thompstone both required surgery following duty for England teams. Matera for Argentina.
Parling has concussion.
Cole and Deacon longstanding spinal issues.
Rizzo, Thorn, Bai, Loamanu did not arrive fit.
Youngs, Morris, Smith, Benjamin and Tait were injured playing.
Allen was a training strain.

Oh and Manu.

He lost his virginity and pulled a groin muscle.

So is he going to have more time off with a bad back?

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