Ireland v Australia 22 Nov 2014: Dog v Cat: Ali V Foreman: Beauty v Beast, Xavier v Wolfman

First topic message reminder :

Have they ever met?
Sure they have.  And they're meeting each other now every second of every day in the lead up to the weekend's encounter - Schmidt even dreaming tactics whilst asleep at night, as there are not nearly enough hours in an atomic-clock week for him.  A meeting of brainwaves as one tries to look into the other's head and plan victory or defeat.

Schmidt doesn't rate the number 3.  Neither does Cheika.  But Cheika will still want the number back out of a sense of pride  He got no time for Ranking nonsense but he'll take it as his pound of flesh anyway given that the rules of the game forbid real flesh being taken.

Schmidt is the scientist; birdlike, almost timid, edgy and nervous when tension grows.  Cheika is the brick wall that needs no door to make a space for itself in a fight.  He has a nice smile, especially when he's happy, and that's usually when his fingers are around someone's neck and squeezing

Schmidt is considered pedantic, perfecting and getting on for being an infuriating perfectionist.  That can often be a problem as the word has noting to do with achieving perfection and everything to do with simply never being satisfied.  Perfectionism can often cloud the path to an easier fulfilling life.  Schmidt is driven but I don't think he'll ever find peace.

Cheika seems more like a company CEO.  Goals adopted, timeframes given, pie charts done, costs analysed, work done, work done, work redone with shouts and screams to make people listen and goals achieved.  Next project.  First project forgotten, yesterday's news.  Little genuine emotion for the victory or the initial goal that rapidly sinks into his history and falls into his junkbox.  
Schmidt wants to win - yes - but he wants to play chess.  Cheika just wants results.

And of course both coached Leinster.  One began the journey but had a temperament that wasn't conducive to a long partnership with the players.  Schmidt continued the journey and honed it but also had a temperament that didn't seem to want the relationship to last long.
This will be a brief encounter for both men - just the way they like it.  Brief encounter but the makings of a very long day for both sets of fans.

So Payne is definitely out. Darcy at 13 Henshaw 12?

GunsGerms wrote:So Payne is definitely out. Darcy at 13 Henshaw 12?

What about Ward's suggestion of Madigan at 12 and Henshaw at 13? (Just interested how you guys would respond to that.) Is it crazy or plausible (outside of whether Schmidt would go for it)?

For me, heading to the World Cup with Darcy involved and ready to step up to the plate is probably a very good thing. But heading to the World Cup with Darcy as one of our 2 or 3 main prospects at centre... well that's not a sign that we're pushing forward with confidence and aggression. The 6 nations is the last chance to properly blood the very top-level team prospects. Love Darcy... but its not enough to keep dismissing his bad performances with the argument that he will at some point pull out another "big performance". Nor should we be gambling the house on his continuing defiance of age through to September of next year.

I think Oz will win, losing to France will make them want it more then Ireland who famously have massive games but then fizzle out.

I'd like Ireland to win though as I just enjoy seeing any NH side get one over their SH cousin's. And how long has it been since one NH side beat two of the top 3 in a season???

Not a fan of putting OHs in the centre. madigan could cover that position but he isnt going to be a long term option there so I see no point whatsoever starting him there.

He will be cover at 10 for Sexton at the WC with the added bonus that he can also cover centre and fullback.

For me it will come down to defence and D'Arcy-Henshaw is our best defensive partnership

Exactly notch and Ill tell you why if it isnt already obvious. Except for the 27-12 historic win in 1979 in Ballymore every time Ireland has won v Australia we have managed to keep Australia's scoreline down to single figures whereas Australia has won all the high scoring games with Ireland rarely ever being restricted to single figures in defeat. Key to beating them is clearly going to be a very strong defensive performance rather than entertaining them with attacking open rugby which we are destined to lose.

I would be really surprised if Schmidt played Madigan at 12 for this game. It would make very little sense IMO.

Kearney
Bowe
Olding
Henshaw
Jones
Sexton
Murray

Would be nice. All in form.

Darcy & Henshaw should cope well in midfield. That isn't to say Khuridrani doesn't manage a break or too, the guys is just too good a runner.

In a defensive alignment would you play Darcy12 and Henshaw13 or would you treat them as left & right on the field irrespective of the location of the breakdown?

Dont you think that Schmidt is more likely to keep Henshaw at 12 as he is more inexperienced at centre and switch Darcy to 13? You never know though.

Blanko wrote:Kearney
Bowe
Olding
Henshaw
Jones
Sexton
Murray

Would be nice. All in form.

Would have thought form(?) would be;

Jones
Bowe
Henshaw
Olding
Zebo
Sexton
Murray

...with....

Kilcoyne
Strauss
Ross
Foley
POC
TOD
Ruddock
POM

thebandwagonsociety wrote:

Blanko wrote:Kearney
Bowe
Olding
Henshaw
Jones
Sexton
Murray

Would be nice. All in form.

Would have thought form(?) would be;

Jones
Bowe
Henshaw
Olding
Zebo
Sexton
Murray

...with....

Kilcoyne
Strauss
Ross
Foley
POC
TOD
Ruddock
POM

What form does O'Mahoney have at 8?
Do you really think Kilcoyne is in better form than McGrath based on the last two games and relative qulaity of opponents?
Jones v Kearney is closer to be fair but I still think Kearney is well ahead
Foley ahead of Toner based on Georgia game?

i heard Israel Folau might be out of this game. Who will switch to FB, Beale?

So then Irish people, what are you expecting from this game. Do you think you are favourites etc etc?

No I dont think Ireland are favourites because a hungover Aussie team killed us last Nov.

I think Ireland will win 18-7 though.

Submachine wrote:

thebandwagonsociety wrote:

Blanko wrote:Kearney
Bowe
Olding
Henshaw
Jones
Sexton
Murray

Would be nice. All in form.

Would have thought form(?) would be;

Jones
Bowe
Henshaw
Olding
Zebo
Sexton
Murray

...with....

Kilcoyne
Strauss
Ross
Foley
POC
TOD
Ruddock
POM

What form does O'Mahoney have at 8?
Do you really think Kilcoyne is in better form than McGrath based on the last two games and relative qulaity of opponents?
Jones v Kearney is closer to be fair but I still think Kearney is well ahead
Foley ahead of Toner based on Georgia game?

Just musing on the natural progression of the thread to remove remnants of blue from the starting side.
I do think Kilcoyne showed up better in the tight against a Georgia side renowned for their front row than McGrath achieved against a strong SA front row. Rest of the Georgia side wouldn't be anything to write home about, but it was definitely a Test match for the front row and Killer did well.
Surprised the POM at 8 was questioned, usually the pre-madonna J'aime gets shifted out of the preferred line-ups quite quickly. POM is well capable at 6 or 8. Moving POM to 8 would be to bring in TOD. Having TOD, Ruddock and POM on the pitch would really put Ireland on the front foot to compete at the breakdown. All the talk about the Oz backline and how the tight five have sorted their sh!t out ignores what tends to be the core strength of most Ozzie sides and that is a couple of groundhogs terrorizing the breakdown.

Guns,

If you did lose (hope you don't) but if you did how would your Autumn series be recieved, what were the expectations before hand?

bedfordwelsh wrote:Guns,

If you did lose (hope you don't) but if you did how would your Autumn series be recieved, what were the expectations before hand?

I think the expectations were to win one of our two games and hammer Georgia. Expectations get raised though- sometimes pretty quickly once the media bandwagon starts rolling.

Right before the South Africa game I would have said I couldn't see us winning that one but would have viewed us as having a great chance to beat Australia and also hammer Georgia.

GunsGerms wrote:Not a fan of putting OHs in the centre. madigan could cover that position but he isnt going to be a long term option there so I see no point whatsoever starting him there.

He will be cover at 10 for Sexton at the WC with the added bonus that he can also cover centre and fullback.

You may or may not be right there Guns (for what it's worth I think Madigan could make a positive difference to our general play) but the thing is he is almost worth bringing in for his goalkicking alone.

We all know for all his strengths Sexton isn't the most reliable goalkicker. Schmidt is heavy on the detail so why we are losing several points a game through Sexton's boot?

vs Australia November 2013 - Sexton kicked 12 out of a possible 15 points, leaving 3 points behind
vs New Zealand - 7/12, 5 points left behind
vs Scotland Six Nations 2014 - 13/15, 2 points left behind
vs Wales - 14/17, 3 points left behind
vs England - 5/5, 0 points left behind
vs Italy - 7/11, 4 points left behind
vs France - 7/12 - 5 points left behind
vs Argentina June 2014 - 8/12 - 4 points left behind
vs Argentina (II) - 11/17 - 6 points left behind
vs South Africa - 16/16 - 0 points left behind

Note I have isolated Sexton's success rates in each game (Madigan and Jackson coming off the bench have not been accounted for).


Maybe the stats don't tell the full story but take the game in Paris, all 5 kicks Sexton took were gimmes at this level but due to missed kicks we were one TMO decision from throwing the game away. There is no need to talk about the All Blacks match.


Madigan is highly unusual in that his on-pitch flair is matched with unerring consistency off the tee. He has shown this in both in the blue shirt and in the green shirt.
Does playing D'arcy (or anyone else) instead really give us up to 6 points in nearly every game?

I'd agree, theslosty. Kicking is vital and Madigan is not only very good but ice cool as well. Leaving kicking aside, he is a better attacker than D'Arcy also.

D'Arcy looks certain to be starting though. I don't think Schmidt will play Henshaw and Madigan or Olding together this weekend.

Sexton would throw a fit if Madigan was given the place kicking.

Sexton was a key player for the Lions in Australia?

theslosty wrote:Sexton was a key player for the Lions in Australia?

Halfpenny was more of a key player for Gatland's team who also saddled Sexton with Phillips - the worst scrumhalf on the Lions.

And he wasn't a bit pleased he wasn't place kicking. He just had to shut up or Owen Farrell would have been starting.

Sexton was class in Australia and he has to be the best in the NH by country mile at the moment and one of the best in the world.

On the kicking front you can't really argue with Halfpennys record on the tour either.

To be fair Sexton was and is the best FH in the NH but bar the sweat box in Hong Kong Farrell was the 1 in better form on the Lions tour we wouldnt have missed much had Sexton not started.

bedfordwelsh wrote:Sexton was class in Australia and he has to be the best in the NH by country mile at the moment and one of the best in the world.

On the kicking front you can't really argue with Halfpennys record on the tour either.

Halfpenny was fantastic. The team was built around him kicking penalties.

Sexton would not be a happy bunny if the kicking duties were taken off him. And Schmidt would not do anything to upset Johnny.

............And O'Gara wouldn't be happy that all his hard work for the year came to nothing. Many unhappy bunnies doth make Ireland a disfunctional warren.... No, not another sly Gats allusion.

Sin é wrote:

bedfordwelsh wrote:Sexton was class in Australia and he has to be the best in the NH by country mile at the moment and one of the best in the world.

On the kicking front you can't really argue with Halfpennys record on the tour either.

Halfpenny was fantastic. The team was built around him kicking penalties.

Sexton would not be a happy bunny if the kicking duties were taken off him. And Schmidt would not do anything to upset Johnny.

If your a regular kicker for club/country then I guess you are never going to be happy not having that role. Not that it was ever needed but can you imagine someone telling Jenkins or Wilkinson that they weren't going to kick.

Sexton (touch wood... no not Keith) looked settled and confident in his kicking against SA.  If that keeps up, there'd be no need to consider a non-10 kicker.  
BUT, if old insecurities around kicking returned, if the uneasy delays appeared again, if the WC loomed and it wasn't improving - then I wouldn't give a damn about hurting feelings.  If I were Schmidt in that situtation, I'd find another kicker on the team. Sexton would still be top dog 10 in every other sense.

Points are too important.  You need a high degree of consistency or you're climbing a very steep hill to victory against any of the top six or seven sides.

SecretFly wrote:
Points are too important.  You need a high degree of consistency or you're climbing a very steep hill to victory against any of the top six or seven sides.

FLy,

So true, when we played Australia 2 weeks ago it was obvious once Biggar and Halfpenny both went off that we were kicking for touch at times when either of them would have kept scoreboard ticking over but Priestland is just not upto it at this level.

Sin é wrote:Sexton would throw a fit if Madigan was given the place kicking.

Yes he would, but he'd also suck it up and still give it everything so I don't mind- in fact, I think it would really motivate him to give even more than usual so it's a good thing that should maybe be tried at least once.

Notch wrote:

Sin é wrote:Sexton would throw a fit if Madigan was given the place kicking.

Yes he would, but he'd also suck it up and still give it everything so I don't mind- in fact, I think it would really motivate him to give even more than usual so it's a good thing that should maybe be tried at least once.

Nope. Joe would never do that to his pal Johnny.

Sin é wrote:

Notch wrote:

Sin é wrote:Sexton would throw a fit if Madigan was given the place kicking.

Yes he would, but he'd also suck it up and still give it everything so I don't mind- in fact, I think it would really motivate him to give even more than usual so it's a good thing that should maybe be tried at least once.

Nope. Joe would never do that to his pal Johnny.

Do you actually believe that? If so, you're even more far gone than I thought!

theslosty wrote:

GunsGerms wrote:Not a fan of putting OHs in the centre. madigan could cover that position but he isnt going to be a long term option there so I see no point whatsoever starting him there.

He will be cover at 10 for Sexton at the WC with the added bonus that he can also cover centre and fullback.

You may or may not be right there Guns (for what it's worth I think Madigan could make a positive difference to our general play) but the thing is he is almost worth bringing in for his goalkicking alone.

We all know for all his strengths Sexton isn't the most reliable goalkicker. Schmidt is heavy on the detail so why we are losing several points a game through Sexton's boot?

vs Australia November 2013 - Sexton kicked 12 out of a possible 15 points, leaving 3 points behind
vs New Zealand - 7/12, 5 points left behind
vs Scotland Six Nations 2014 - 13/15, 2 points left behind
vs Wales - 14/17, 3 points left behind
vs England - 5/5, 0 points left behind
vs Italy - 7/11, 4 points left behind
vs France - 7/12 - 5 points left behind
vs Argentina June 2014 - 8/12 - 4 points left behind
vs Argentina (II) - 11/17 - 6 points left behind
vs South Africa - 16/16 - 0 points left behind

Note I have isolated Sexton's success rates in each game (Madigan and Jackson coming off the bench have not been accounted for).


Maybe the stats don't tell the full story but take the game in Paris, all 5 kicks Sexton took were gimmes at this level but due to missed kicks we were one TMO decision from throwing the game away. There is no need to talk about the All Blacks match.


Madigan is highly unusual in that his on-pitch flair is matched with unerring consistency off the tee. He has shown this in both in the blue shirt and in the green shirt.
Does playing D'arcy (or anyone else) instead really give us up to 6 points in nearly every game?

You got me on that one. For sure we should have a second option in the team. It may well end up being McFadden who is also probably more reliable than Sexton.

Joe:  "Sexy............... I was doing me strategy graphs on me computer and like................................ I came to the conclusion that our winning percentages would increase dramatically if................ like I was thinking........."

From the darkenss Sexton (inhaling a deep breath):  "Don't Joe. - Don't think. -  I didn't hire you to think.... not down my alley anyway."

Joe:  Okay so.  I'll forget about it.  It's just I was thinking we don't need as many ruck resourcing players on the team as I initially thought.  We could do without that Zebo guy completely in my new calculations.  But I'll leave you in peace to meditate, Johnny.  Sorry for opening your Vader Orb without ringing first."

bedfordwelsh wrote:So then Irish people, what are you expecting from this game.  Do you think you are favourites etc etc?

I expect us to win this game by more than a score,the Aussies aren't great away from home and they look porous in defense.I'll expect our attack to have a plan to exploit their weaknesses and the fact that they had a tough match in Paris while our first team had their feet up last weekend is huge.We've no excuses unless something freakish happens I'll be very disappointed if we don't win.

Cheika will have his troops pumped though.  He'll be comfortable in the surroundings, it won't feel alien.  He'll want his guys to show Ireland how South Africa should have played it.  And for all the talk about South Africa, either we're getting much better or that simply wasn't nearly as tough a game as Irish sides have had to deal with before (England last year for example).  

So, like I say, either we've got seriously and consistently much better in the last year (into consistent SH territory in ability) or the South Africa game wasn't as tough as it could have been.  I pick the latter and that's why I'd suggest Australia MUST - they must - at least bring with them a more usual SH pressure.
I'll expect a lot of sweat from big Irish forwards being forced to run much more, and being forced to run when they think they've earned a breather, and being forced to run when Australia might simply keep the ball alive (quick throw-ins) rather than waiting for lineouts.  I think there'll be a packet of off-guard moments from the Australians that if we're not alert to them they will punish us.
So (unlike the SA game) I think the fitness of Irish players will be tested to the max and that's the weapon the Aussie's will try to use.

But back to the question of where Ireland really is.  Before the AIs began and before Cheika went to Australia, I suppose like most people I felt the really tough game would be against SA, and that we might rally enough to have a better game against a less potent Australia.  Now though, and after the experience of the SA game, I think Australia will be a much tougher exercise.
BUT.......... I still think that if we do win then it won't be as close as some seem to predict.  This is a proving game of truth for Ireland.  Just where are we?  Was the SA game a fluke?  I think the players look like they're in a mood to prove it's not a fluke.  And this could actually be the classic one game a year when Ireland actually storm through a game with that controlled rage that can often be irressistible.

But I'll accept anything and any result but Implosion.  I don't want anymore false dawn Implosions

SecretFly wrote:Joe:  "Sexy............... I was doing me strategy graphs on me computer and like................................ I came to the conclusion that our winning percentages would increase dramatically if................ like I was thinking........."

From the darkenss Sexton (inhaling a deep breath):  "Don't Joe. - Don't think. -  I didn't hire you to think.... not down my alley anyway."

Joe:  Okay so.  I'll forget about it.  It's just I was thinking we don't need as many ruck resourcing players on the team as I initially thought.  We could do without that Zebo guy completely in my new calculations.  But I'll leave you in peace to meditate, Johnny.  Sorry for opening your Vader Orb without ringing first."

Quick shout out, Olding may be starting centre for the weekend!!!???

SecretFly wrote:Cheika will have his troops pumped though.  He'll be comfortable in the surroundings, it won't feel alien.  He'll want his guys to show Ireland how South Africa should have played it.  And for all the talk about South Africa, either we're getting much better or that simply wasn't nearly as tough a game as Irish sides have had to deal with before (England last year for example).  

So, like I say, either we've got seriously and consistently much better in the last year (into consistent SH territory in ability) or the South Africa game wasn't as tough as it could have been.  I pick the latter and that's why I'd suggest Australia MUST - they must - at least bring with them a more usual SH pressure.
I'll expect a lot of sweat from big Irish forwards being forced to run much more, and being forced to run when they think they've earned a breather, and being forced to run when Australia might simply keep the ball alive (quick throw-ins) rather than waiting for lineouts.  I think there'll be a packet of off-guard moments from the Australians that if we're not alert to them they will punish us.
So (unlike the SA game) I think the fitness of Irish players will be tested to the max and that's the weapon the Aussie's will try to use.

But back to the question of where Ireland really is.  Before the AIs began and before Cheika went to Australia, I suppose like most people I felt the really tough game would be against SA, and that we might rally enough to have a better game against a less potent Australia.  Now though, and after the experience of the SA game, I think Australia will be a much tougher exercise.
BUT.......... I still think that if we do win then it won't be as close as some seem to predict.  This is a proving game of truth for Ireland.  Just where are we?  Was the SA game a fluke?  I think the players look like they're in a mood to prove it's not a fluke.  And this could actually be the classic one game a year when Ireland actually storm through a game with that controlled rage that can often be irressistible.

But I'll accept anything and any result but Implosion.  I don't want anymore false dawn Implosions

It wasn't a fluke, South Africa declined their opportunities at goal, even though they had the majority of possession and territory.

Ireland took every possible opportunity, and thereby created scoreboard pressure on SA. They went into the shed at halftime confident and kept the lead throughout.

They managed the game situation and we didn't.

We therefor lost.

South Africa may have turned down kicks at goal in the first half and come away with nothing but the same decision in the second half earned them 7 points (Coetzee's try). Overall it didn't really affect the scoreboard.

I'd tip Ireland to win this one, which frankly is bad news for the Irish!

theslosty wrote:South Africa may have turned down kicks at goal in the first half and come away with nothing but the same decision in the second half earned them 7 points (Coetzee's try). Overall it didn't really affect the scoreboard.

OK mate, if that is what you want to believe

funnyExiledScot wrote:I'd tip Ireland to win this one, which frankly is bad news for the Irish!

Why? We will go to the WC too confident?

GunsGerms wrote:

funnyExiledScot wrote:I'd tip Ireland to win this one, which frankly is bad news for the Irish!

Why? We will go to the WC too confident?

Probably more to do with the accuracy of his prophesies.

PredictorofTeams wrote:Quick shout out, Olding may be starting centre for the weekend!!!???

From the Irish Times...

IT wrote:Experience would also make Gordon D’Arcy favourite to retain his place and thus start ahead of Stuart Olding inside Robbie Henshaw, who will presumably move to outside centre in light of Payne missing out. Whether significant or a curve ball, Olding was one of those on some media duties yesterday

Simon Easterby wrote:Robbie is seen there as someone who went really well against South Africa. He didn’t play against Georgia, whoever partners him whether it be Stuart or Darce, they’ve a big job to do because Jared and Robbie combined pretty well together. I think there is definitely different dimensions to both those guys. Darce has got 80 caps now, you can’t just produce that type of experience overnight and he’s a bi-game player (sic). Stu’s gone really well for Ulster, when he gets going forward he’s got good footwork, he sees the game really well and can play in more than one position as well so there’s a good balance to those two as to who plays alongside Robbie

http://www.irishtimes.com/sport/rugby/international/rory-best-set-for-recall-in-autumn-test-against-australia-1.2006085?page=2

My guess is Olding to get a spot on the bench after showing he can cover fullback as well as centre in the last few weeks for Ulster and Ireland. D'Arcy to start.

Woulod it not be a bigger risk moving Hanshaw to 13 that putting Darcy at 13 as he has much more experience playing there?

PredictorofTeams wrote:Quick shout out, Olding may be starting centre for the weekend!!!???

This guy has been right about these things before, I specifically remember one occasion when he predicted something correctly that Thornley didn't.

My guess is he knows a team member

kunu wrote:

PredictorofTeams wrote:Quick shout out, Olding may be starting centre for the weekend!!!???

This guy has been right about these things before, I specifically remember one occasion when he predicted something correctly that Thornley didn't.

My guess is he knows a team member

Well considering he lives in Joey's telephone maybe he is just evesdropping on Schmidt's calls?

I'm thinking positively about Ireland-reckon that things are a little different. After the SA game I'm picking them to beat Aussie and Schmidt to have worked out how to defend against Australia's backs.

What I'm f**ked off about is that I can't watch the game before walking to the Millennium Stadium. It starts an hour before the All Black Wales game. Someone seriously needs to STSO on that front.

Where are you walking from? Bristol?

Just camp out in one of the many bars around the MS before the game.