Djokovic broken serving for set or match

Sorry, not a great discussion thread but more of a statistical indulgence.

It feels to me that Djokovic is broken unusually frequently when serving for a set or match. I'm going to log when it happens to see if it really is as frequent as it feels. I'll update as the year unfolds.

Please let me know if I miss any.

From start of 2015
vs Murray at Australian Open (serving for set)
vs Ramos-Vinolas at Indian Wells (serving for set)
vs Klizan at Miami (serving for match)
vs Ferrer at Miami (serving for match)
vs Berdych at Monte Carlo (serving for set)

If it makes you feel better HM, I thought of you as soon as Klizan made it 5-5 in the second set.

This surely needs some sort of comparison though. Three does not sound very many to me. What about tracking the top 4 and seeing whether Novak is an outlier?

Murray broken by Giraldo from 40-15 up when serving for the match. Hadn't even been taken to deuce on serve beforehand.

Thinking about it, Andy was also broken by the Don when serving for the first set in his last match.

Born Slippy wrote:This surely needs some sort of comparison though. Three does not sound very many to me. What about tracking the top 4 and seeing whether Novak is an outlier?

The kind of context I had in mind was "per tournament" or "per match".

At the end of the year, if the numbers look like it might be worthwhile, I may work out how many times he has served for a set and what is success rate is.

It may well be that he really doesn't lose serve as much as it feels like. That's part of the reason I'm doing this - to find out if my impression is wrong.

If anyone can be bothered to do the same for another player, please feel free to add it to this thread.

Djokovic gifts a break to his opponent in most matches. Take against Klizan he is rolling along after a 6-0 set and then throws in back to back doubles and a forehand error to give the guy a break. I could have broken Djokovic in that service game with the errors, double faults, and missed first serves. It goes back to his up and down nature of his focus. For a guy who consistently gets the incredible results he gets he is still very streaky sometimes over the course of a single match or single set even.

I watched a Djokovic match the other day, ah yes the one against Federer, and it seemed that every double fault was on a key point, literally every one in the whole match.

As to that Klizan match, it was one of those where the players were warming up, and I thought I'll do something else for 5 minutes and come back, and when I came back, they were on the second set. So maybe there was a concentration loss in set 2, it looked so easy for Djokovic that I turned it off mid way through the second set, even though it was something like 3-3 I couldn't see Klizan winning the set.

Its like Federer, who always had an annoying tendency to drop serve straight away after winning the first set. Early on in his career it didn't hurt him like wim 2005 final. But against nadal, those concentration blips really cost him. E.g. French open final 2006, aus open 2012 semi. It made him lose the momentum completely. Sorry for going off topic but your thread just reminded me of this bug bear.

greengoblin wrote:Its like Federer, who always had an annoying tendency to drop serve straight away after winning the first set.

I am under the impression that Fed too often drops a serve right after he wins a set - especially in tight matches.  But I have never looked into whether he really does it more often than should be expected or whether it is just my impression.

well Djokovic has just been broken serving for match against Ferrer. I do think the useful stat would be:

% of total service games Djokovic wins vs % he wins serving for set/match
same stats for other players

I think with Novak he is so much better than everyone most of the time he goes to sleep and gets in trouble. He sometimes needs someone to get ahead of him to wake up and then he's deadly

Updated