Tier 2 Nations and the World Cup

Their are ten Tier 2 Nations who will compete at this years World Cup in New Zealand, Canada, Japan, Tonga (all in Pool A), Georgia, Romania (Pool B), Russia, USA (Pool C), Fiji, Namibia and Samoa (Pool D).

My question twofold and is this, which Tier 2 nation will get the furthest in this years competition, and how will this assist them in improving standards within their national team and domestic set up?

Looking at the pools you have to believe that the teams in Pool A have no chance of qualification, with France and the All Blacks far to strong for all of them. Likewise in Pool C where to progress the lower nations will need to get past Australia, Ireland and Italy, who should all be too much of a test.

For me it comes down to two teams, one in Pool B and one in Pool D.

In Pool B I think Georgia are a dark horse with an opportunity, albeit slim to really upset the Tier 1 Nations. They have a tough as teak pack, many of whom have T14 experience and will not fear their opponents. They could well match all of the Tier 1 nations up front, and I have to question how far ahead of them Argentina and Scotland actually are in the backs. If they can have enough good days, they are a threat for me.

In Pool D South Africa are clear favourites to progress, with Wales as runners up. However, there are 3 further bruising encounters that Wales must get through on top of the South Africa game to qualify, and these type of opponents are clear banana skins for them. For me Samoa represent their most likely challengers for a quarter final spot, and have enough talent not only to beat Wales, but to also comfortably see off Fiji and Namibia.

Overall I think most likely to make the quarter finals are Samoa, and if they do they have the talent to upset anyone on their day. In the long run, I am not sure that it will really benefit them in terms of improving domestic structures, and that is something the IRB need to look at, but I good showing will only raise their profile and open up more opportunities for their best players to play in the top leagues around the world.

Well that's my view, interested to hear yours. Thanks for reading.

Pete, I can't vote in this because I can't choose between Fiji and Samoa, and nor do I want to vote for them as that will be admitting Wales have a very good chance of losing to them and that makes me want to

Definitely Group D could spring a major surprise (or not so much of a surprise...) then any of the others.

Agree - Pools A and C are too hard - I think Argentina and Scotland between them are too much for Georgia to get past as they would have to better both of them. Wales have slipped up before - if they don't get it right they could be the weak point especially as they have both Fiji and Samoa in their group and could slip up to either (or even heaven forfend both!)

The most likely answer is probably none of them as they won't get out of the groups. Pool D definitely looks most likely for an upset, so I'll have to go with Fiji.

They were poor in 2007 but I feel Samoa will have a big World Cup this time around.

Fiji could surprise though. Talent all the way through.

Georgia maybe to beat Scotland.

I had to go for Fiji, as they do have the most established in both hemispheres, however Tonga may be good to watch and were pretty good last time out at a wc.

I doubt Georgia will beat Scotland (fingers crossed I hope )

Samoa

Samoa for me. They are due a big one this time and with fiji having their own p[roblems Samoa look set to cash in.

A lot of people are saying Samoa, which means Wales to lose out. Realistically though, will any of the tier 2 nations get out of their groups?

It is going to be one of the south sea islanders to get through, can't see any of the others getting through their groups.

So you are saying Wales to finish third in their group then?

Well depending on what sought of team Samoa can field, It would certainly have to be their day, but it was a draw last year and that will give them confidence.

Yes wales to finish 3rd after losing to South Africa and Samoa, and possibly Fiji.

Just think Wales are in a bit of disarray right now. Gatland seems to be losing the plot a little and does not know his best team. They are overly reliant on 1 or 2 key individuals and behind the first choice players there is not a great deal of proven quality. I think this could be a poor World Cup for them.

Samoa? You reckon SA may not get out of the group?

So far the following 2nd tier nations have got to the QF Samoa (91 and 95), Canada(91) and Fiji (87 and 07). Interestingly if Samoa or Fiji make the QF above Wales then they'll both have made the QF 3 times.

LDCPete wrote:Yes wales to finish 3rd after losing to South Africa and Samoa, and possibly Fiji.

Just think Wales are in a bit of disarray right now. Gatland seems to be losing the plot a little and does not know his best team. They are overly reliant on 1 or 2 key individuals and behind the first choice players there is not a great deal of proven quality. I think this could be a poor World Cup for them.

The worst thing is, is that I can't fully argue with this. Wales shouldn't lose to Fiji and Samoa, if they play like I know they can. However they haven't played like that since 2008 so I'm not holding out too much hope. Please, please Wales, prove me wrong.

No Tier 2 nations to progress. If there are it will be at Wales expense. England, Scotland and Argentina are too tough for Georgia.

Tier 2 nations won't do as good as last time.I can't see them claiming any scalp although Samoa and Fiji could give Wales an interesting game.

Hello guys. Never posted on any site before but really enjoy the discussions which go on. i always find it interesting the depth of knowledge that you all have.

Despite the problems which Wales currently have i do think they will qualify as they will just have a little bit too much to Samoa and Fiji. Wales have a lack of grunt up front and a problem at 12 unless Hook plays there. 2 'bashers' like Davies and Roberts will not beat the top sides but probably will be enough to beat Fiji etc. That said i am a big fan of Davies.

Whilst i think the progression of one of the second tier nations would be good for rugby overall, particularly the US or Russia, i can't see it happening this time around.

In previous years you could argue that Fiji and Samoa were massive underdogs in 1991, 1999, and 2007 to beat Wales. Yet frankly if they were to win against us in New Zealand it wouldn't actually be an upset, and most Welsh fans are realistic and pragmatic about playing these teams.
The truth is MOST of these Islander players have had a New Zealand rugby education which is far superiour to anything we have in Wales and many are employed professionally. It's wonderful to say these poor third world islanders who have nothing but pride, but nearly all earn a fantastic living doing what they do and most would of had New Zealand aspirations before settling on a role in the Island teams.
Fiji aren't actually that far behind Wales in any way, our countries are the same size geographically, and the number of registered players are similar, Wales have 50k, Fiji have 36k, if you added in the number of New Zealand based players potentially eligible for Fiji on top of that 36k then I doubt there is much in it.
The only major issues in the world cup i can forsee are. Wales have northern hemisphere referees in the South Africa, Samoa and Fiji games. Clearly have a Newzealand or australian referee for those games would of killed us.
Secondly the fixtures and recovery days between matches fall very nicely for Wales, in comparison to the Island sides.

I have two seperate thought processes here.

One is that Fiji and Samoa know the New Zealand conditions well as there will be enough of them who have played in Super Rugby. But then as some have mentioned before, with the political issues in Fiji, the question comes down to who will be selected.

Same goes for Samoa, they will be comfortable in New zealand conditions, but yer has not had a good RWC forquite some time.

So out of these two, if there is an upset it should be Fiji.

Second.

Wales may be in disarray, but as Francois Pienaar have said numerous times. You only need 3 months to prepare for a world cup. One thing you can never take away from Wales is the pride they have for their jumper. This to me is the key. They do have enough time to get ready, and won't underestimate the South Sea Islands.

A Samoan team in Auckland is at home don't forget that. Tonga and Fiji not that different either.

Why is Scotland not on the list

Hobo wrote:Why is Scotland not on the list

That's a bit of a cheap shot is it not?

But naw in all seriousness I can see why we would get pigeon holed in that category..... I for one had massive expectations about our 6N hopes and look what that got me.

Should have known better

Hobo wrote:Why is Scotland not on the list

OHH I feel offended

It of course depends if Fiji are allowed in...or at least allowed to play their best players due to this political palava...

IF they are then i think they are in a better playing state than Samoa at the moment, and would more likely be the one to beat Wales...

On a different thread it says the New Zealand goverment might ban Fiji players who are employed by the army, most of Fijis players play professionally abroad, so I dont think there is going to be much of an issue.

I have a slight problem here one of definition,for me tier one.Is the original
5Ns plus 3N`s ,tier2 Samoa Italy,Tonga,Fiji,Argentina,tier3 the rest.All of the tier 2 teams I have mentioned have at some time beaten a tier 1side.At a stretch I will concede Argentina as tier 1.Outside RWCs,with the exception of Argentina,and Italy on odd occassions.I would expect 9 out of 10 times a tier 1 win.In RWCs,Argentina could well win there group,on 2007 form at least qualify.England vScotland one off`s can go both ways,you`d expect England.But Scotland usually get out of the group stages,Wales could well be looking at an early exit.Vice versa they could just win the group,Ireland I think will get out of the group this year.Nz `s nemesis France will certainly qualify,but doubt they will break much sweat in the group stage.The All Blacks will play to win every match,there pride won`t let them concede a group loss for the first time ever.They may not have a lot of RWC`s to there credit,but they are still the only unbeaten side at group stage ever.

Hobo wrote:Why is Scotland not on the list

My thoughts exactly. Samoa all the way

Yeah I think the tier 1/2 thing is a bit rude.
How about we make tier 1 any country that has won the world cup? Or how about any country in the top 4 at present.
What does a country have to do to move in our out of a tier?
If Japan beat Wales 5 times in a row would they swap tiers.
I'm sure there would be a few tears shed. (hey I made a funny)