Can Exeter take the next step?

Twice in three seasons Exeter have finished 5th in the AP, missing out on the play-offs by a whisker. Will they finish in the Top 4 next season?

In their favour:

Some exciting young players who can only get better.


Counting against them:

Some exciting young players who can only get better.




Huh? I hear you say.


Well the thing is, next season Chiefs can expect to see their representation in international squads much increased. This season the only player they lost was Jack Nowell - for two of the 7 matches played during International windows. In that time Exeter won all seven matches, while the teams most heavily hit by international call-ups suffered:

Northampton coped best with 5 wins.
Bath lost 3 of their 4 matches during the 6 Nations
Sarries won 3 of the 7 matches.


As always Exeter will rise to the challenge, but could find themselves missing LCD, Francis, Ewers, Slade and Nowell for large parts of the season.

Not to mention if the WC goes bad for England I expect Baxter would be quite high up on the list of replacements for Lancaster.

Is that not why they have signed players like Waldrom, Parling etc...as they are unlikely to be involved with England next season and still quality experienced Premiership performers?

It's strange when you think about it.

Exeter did the double over both Saints and Saracens.

5/8 vs top 4.

It was Exeter's inability to beat the likes of Newcastle and London Irish away which meant they missed out on the playoffs. If they had won these two matches......

Exeter can do it yes. That head to head shows they can match the top 4.

Three of their five wins against top 4 teams came during International Weekends, while a denuded Quins were another team they beat during the seven international weekends.

Now unless Tigers improve, they should overtake us (though they did fail to beat us this season) - but they will find it much harder to win should they be losing a raft of players to international duty.

I don't think next season will see the rise of those players. Only Slade and Nowell will be England squad regulars. I imagine LCD will make the Saxons but with Youngs, Hartley and Webber as senior options he'll need more time to show consistent form to overtake them. If Ewers was high on Lancaster's list of blindside options why want he involved whilst Wood, Croft and Morgan were all absent?

Francis is a different kettle of fish as it will depend to what degree Gatland's law is enforced and to how the Welsh based props handle to RWC.

I think Exeter are building a high quality squad built around a great team ethos. Only points difference saved Sarries and denied Chiefs this season. Surely it's only a matter of time for them as long as they can retain all their great talent (Conlon leaving will be a blow) and utilise the experience they've purchased.