OWGR - End of Year 2015, The Race to the Masters

First topic message reminder :

Justin Thomas and Victor Dubuisson jumped well into the Top 50 with their wins.  In addition, K.T. Kim won his FIFTH tournament since June, and is up to #61 in the rankings.

This is what the ~Top 100 of the OWGR rankings should like tomorrow morning.  Players with an asterisk are already Qualified for the Masters.  Sergio is the highest ranked player, not yet qualified for the Masters.  Most of the players already qualified for the Masters have either won a regular PGATournament or finished in the FEX Top 30.  A few exceptions like IJP's 6th place at the 2015 Masters.

1 Jason Day 12.184 *
2 Jordan Spieth 12.093 *
3 Rory McIlroy 10.910 *
4 Bubba Watson 8.190 *
5 Rickie Fowler 7.585 *
6 Justin Rose 7.579 *
7 Henrik Stenson 7.282 *
8 Dustin Johnson 6.479 *
9 Jim Furyk 6.451 *
10 Zach Johnson 4.880 *
11 Sergio Garcia 4.763
12 Adam Scott 4.541 *
13 Louis Oosthuizen 4.393 *
14 Brooks Koepka 4.346 *
15 Hideki Matsuyama 4.320 *
16 Matt Kuchar 4.212 *
17 Shane Lowry 3.991 *
18 Patrick Reed 3.914 *
19 Kevin Na 3.900 *
20 Jimmy Walker 3.876 *
21 J.B. Holmes 3.728 *
22 Branden Grace 3.577 *
23 Martin Kaymer 3.464 *
24 Paul Casey 3.438 *
25 Phil Mickelson 3.390 *
26 Danny Willett 3.347
27 Billy Horschel 3.124
28 Bernd Wiesberger 3.069
29 Chris Kirk 3.007 *
30 Justin Thomas 3.003 *
31 Brandt Snedeker 2.967 *
32 Bill Haas 2.912 *
33 Thongchai Jaidee 2.910
34 Kevin Kisner 2.870 *
35 Victor Dubuisson 2.844
36 Robert Streb 2.805 *
37 Emiliano Grillo 2.771 *
38 Charley Hoffman 2.764 *
39 Anirban Lahiri 2.754
40 Danny Lee 2.746 *
41 Kiradech Aphibarnrat 2.729
42 Marc Leishman 2.708 *
43 Scott Piercy 2.680 *
44 Ryan Palmer 2.622
45 David Lingmerth 2.552 *
46 Soren Kjeldsen 2.513
47 Byeong Hun An 2.503
48 Lee Westwood 2.493
49 Daniel Berger 2.491 *
50 Charl Schwartzel 2.452 *
51 Gary Woodland 2.431
52 Andy Sullivan 2.412
53 Ian Poulter 2.405 *
54 Ryan Moore 2.405 *
55 Russell Henley 2.346
56 Chris Wood 2.339
57 Hunter Mahan 2.335 *
58 Jamie Donaldson 2.319
59 Matthew Fitzpatrick 2.317
60 Cameron Tringale 2.230
61 K.T. Kim 2.194
62 Brendon Todd 2.190
63 Keegan Bradley 2.184 *
64 Marc Warren 2.172
65 Webb Simpson 2.141 *
66 Francesco Molinari 2.129
67 Jason Bohn 2.123
68 Steven Bowditch 2.085 *
69 Ben Martin 2.076
70 Tommy Fleetwood 2.075
71 Brendan Steele 2.061
72 Luke Donald 2.014
73 Matt Jones 2.000
74 John Senden 1.999
75 Smylie Kaufman 1.922 *
76 George Coetzee 1.905
77 Joost Luiten 1.903
78 Thorbjorn Olesen 1.894
79 Patton Kizzire 1.891
80 Tony Finau 1.881
81 Graeme McDowell 1.856
82 Miguel A Jimenez 1.846
83 Russell Knox 1.791
84 Brian Harman 1.786
85 Alexander Levy 1.780
86 Daniel Summerhays 1.724
87 Harris English 1.720 *
88 James Morrison 1.703
89 Yuta Ikeda 1.682
90 James Hahn 1.674
91 Richie Ramsay 1.652
92 Prayad Marksaeng 1.647
93 Alexander Noren 1.644
94 Hiroshi Iwata 1.638
95 Patrick Rodgers 1.618
96 Eddie Pepperell 1.614
97 Thomas Pieters 1.612
98 David Howell 1.605
99 Matt Every 1.600
100 Cameron Smith 1.589
======
101 Tyrrell Hatton 1.588
102 Sangmoon Bae 1.585
103 Troy Merritt 1.584
104 Rafael Cabrera Bello 1.566

King Charl tentatively moves to #30, ahead of Mickelson.

Mickelson could move as high as #14 should he win (probably 15th)

Iwata could move to #50, barely ahead of Chris Kirk.

Freddie Jac would move up to #47.
Sung Kang would move inside the top 100.

OWGR Top 50 Bubble watch:

Hardly anything!!!  Everyone round the bubble either missed the cut, or finished well back in Malaysia or well back going into Round 4 in Los Angeles.

Going into this week, the Players ranked #44, 45, #46, #50, all missed the cut.  So you would think that would open the door for some players to enter the Top 50.

#58, #59, Oleson, Pieters, both missed the cut in Malaysia and RCB finished T36 so he won't come close.  Pieters falls out RtD top 10 as well.

#52 Matt Jones and #55 something Berger missed the cut (but Berger is already Qualified for Cadillac).

#51 Donaldson and #56 Gomez have a chance to impact the Top 50.  All Donaldson has pass #50 Kirk is finish in the Top 55.  But Gomez has to get into the Top 15 to pass Kirk and bad finish from Donaldson.

Gomez is probably still going to qualify for Cadillac via FEX Top 10.

Reavie, Chappell, Choi will leap into Top 50 should they win

================

Bubba would get #4 should he win, Dustin could get To #5 should he win.

I think Rory needs at least a solo 2nd to have a chance at overtaking Spieth next week, and that will have to be a win.

Basically any combination of a win and solo 2nd should be enough for this week and next.

Two high finishes at NTO and Honda will put Spieth's #1 ranking in jeopardy for the Cadillac.

Cheers GPB,
Kinda strange/bizarre that Matt Jones wins the Aussie Open but doesn't qualify for the "Cadillac"; he's become a bit of an owgr nearly man.

I like pd's observation that The Mechanic is no longer top Miguel in the rankings!

If Bubba wins, will Top Four (including Rickie) become Top Five (to include Rickie) or will it still be Top Four ignoring Bubba?

I think the meme has been Big 4, not Top 4.

George Coetzee won the Sunshine Tour event (Dimension Pro-Am) this week, should moved up to 75 or 76 in the OWGR.

Including this week, only 4 more tournaments to determine Match Play field.  Westwood is probably safe, but IJP is very vulnerable.  He needs to score some OWGR points next week in Honda or Valspar (if he plays)

He probably needs at least at least a Top 10 next week to get an 11th hour invite to Cadillac.

Donaldson squeaks into the Cadillac.  He finished T54.  He needed to finish 55th or better.

Question...  Rory eagles his first hole in the 4th round to join a co-lead in the tournament at 12-under.  He's probably "really" one-shot back at the time as those at 12-under have yet to play the par-4 1st they call a par-5.  

BUT...  Rory then goes 7-over in the next 15 holes.  No huge blowup holes... just lots of mistakes (as have been referenced earlier in this thread)... but now onto the question.

Was Rory's 4th round performance yesterday considered a "choke"?   Here's a few possible answers... feel free to choose one of these or add your own.

1) - No, not a choke... anybody is subject to a bad round every now and again...
2) - A little choke maybe.
3) - Yeah, a big choke... Rory found himself in contention, felt the pressure and spit the bit big time.

GPB wrote:I think the meme has been Big 4, not Top 4.

George Coetzee won the Sunshine Tour event (Dimension Pro-Am) this week, should moved up to 75 or 76 in the OWGR.

Including this week, only 4 more tournaments to determine Match Play field.  Westwood is probably safe, but IJP is very vulnerable.  He needs to score some OWGR points next week in Honda or Valspar (if he plays)

He probably needs at least at least a Top 10 next week to get an 11th hour invite to Cadillac.

Poulter is showing as a tentative commitment to Tampa...

Robo

He suffered a total melt down when in contention. If you wanted to label that a choke of sorts I would happily agree to that categorization of what happened.

"Choke"? Is that the American (Edit: And those Scots with not-so-hidden agendas) spin?


Uncanny how intact the owgr Top Fifty has been since Jan 1st. As far as I can see, Matt Jones (#52) is the only golfer in the Top 57 not currently with an invitation from Billy Payne on his desk. Only five weeks to go until the next Masters Top 50 cut-off and you'd think Payne will be saving money on postage stamps this year.

McLaren wrote:Robo

He suffered a total melt down when in contention.  If you wanted to label that a choke of sorts I would happily agree to that categorization of what happened.

I'm asking because I honestly don't know if I have a bias on the topic or what. I don't think I do... I like Rory. But seems to me once he got the co-lead... the collar got tighter and that was the reason for his subsequent poor shots and questionable decisions. But when you post one of the worst rounds of the day of the entire field after holding a co-lead early in there round... (only something like 10 players with better scores)... That's a choke in my book. Now once he got maybe 5-6 shots behind and he was out of it... then it turned into something else... kind of like "death by paper cuts". By that time pressure of contention was long gone... he was just trying to find something... anything.

Now had Rory just posted that 12-under he got to after the first hole.. or maybe even minus-11 or -13 with a birdie or two here and a bogey or two there... I wouldn't have considered it choke. Not EXCELLING when under pressure is not choking... That's just golf and lots of players do that on "payday" or facing a cutline or something every week. Besides talent, that's the difference between really good players and everybody else... really good players can deal with that pressure of contention more often than the rank and file... it just doesn't mean they can always do it.

Rory melted under the pressure of playing with Adam Scott.

Kwini

My Agenda has always been that I am a Rory fan, are you saying that makes my biased here?


Whatever you want to call it, Rory failed to rejuvenate his round after just a couple of bad holes. And if not a choke then what? Why are we always arguing about the word choke on here? it is like we cannot agree to use it to label any situation.


Would you agree with the following. Rory could not maintain his focus, made poor choices, did not play to his potential and could not recover the situation?

Indeed, played a bit like Man Utd.

I'm quite prepared to concede that Adam Scott's lightning start (what was he? five under par over his first six holes?), rattled him and he tried to play too aggressively, including that silly 3-putt from 12-ish feet on #4. I don't concede that, to use my previous phrase, unwisely "swinging for the fences" is choking.

Not sure that your description fits any definition of choking; I'd contend that perhaps he over-achieved in Rounds 1,2 & 3. He'd never seen the course, I doubt he putts on poa annua more than once in a blue moon, etc, etc.

McLaren wrote:Kwini

My Agenda has always been that I am a Rory fan, are you saying that makes my biased here?


Whatever you want to call it, Rory failed to rejuvenate his round after just a couple of bad holes. And if not a choke then what?  Why are we always arguing about the word choke on here? it is like we cannot agree to use it to label any situation.  


Would you agree with the following.  Rory could not maintain his focus, made poor choices, did not play to his potential and could not recover the situation?

Kwini... my post had nothing to do with implying anything about anybody else's feelings other than my own. PERIOD.  I was just wondering how people on this board (mostly non-American) viewed what happened... simple as that.  

Now beyond that... I guess I'd look at "failed to rejuvenate his round" as kind of an odd way to put it.  Seems to me once Rory got on the bogey train, he was pretty much like Spieth was on Thursday... couldn't stop puking all over himself (that last meaningless birdie on #18 notwithstanding).

"failed to rejuvenate his round", of course, was not my description.
No-one has actually responded to my suggestions as to what might have occurred.

Couldn't understand, robo, why you would have brought up "choking", but most of the blather I've read on golf sites seems to take cheap shots and not actually try to find out what might have happened.
What is also true, and with the exception of Kokrak and Reavie, everyone else in contention knew Riviera like the back of their hand and had enjoyed considerable success there; even KJ who I think might have played 15 or 16 times without missing the cut.
But then I always consider course form a crucial factor in choosing likely contenders.

kwinigolfer wrote:"failed to rejuvenate his round", of course, was not my description.
No-one has actually responded to my suggestions as to what might have occurred.

Couldn't understand, robo, why you would have brought up "choking", but most of the blather I've read on golf sites seems to take cheap shots and not actually try to find out what might have happened.
What is also true, and with the exception of Kokrak and Reavie, everyone else in contention knew Riviera like the back of their hand and had enjoyed considerable success there; even KJ who I think might have played 15 or 16 times without missing the cut.
But then I always consider course form a crucial factor in choosing likely contenders.  

I brought it up because it's been a hot topic on another few boards I participate... and in those I've found the opinions on chokes seems to fall more in line with if the player is one of their favorites or not... and/or along more jingoistic lines. I wasn't aware the topic was one of apparent "angst" here... or I never would have brought it up. Instead I thought I'd get some decent objective opinions... and I wanted to know if they jived with mine.

But all that aside... IMO choking is when the pressure of the moment prevents one from performing to their expected NORM... which is exactly what MOST players do under pressure. Hell, they make it a career trying to learn how NOT to do it. But I happen to not like the word choke simply because it has such a negative connotation... so I choose to use it only in what I perceive to be the worst cases. Somebody's got to really big time spit the bit at the "moment of truth" for me even think of using it.

So in that vein... Sure Scott and DJ and Kokrak all had moments when I think the pressure got to them and negatively affected their performance in key moments on the back nine... but they weren't total implosions... so no "choke label" from me. Rory on the otherhand... got the lead... then imploded... and finished 20-something.

I think many on this board have most UK/GB players among their "favorites", yet I think we still agree that most UK/GB players are born with the choker gene.

IMO Rory is not a classical choker a la Westwood though, he's probably just an extraordinary talented player with a somewhat immature mind.

Robo

I think this is only a topic of angst for kwini. He would argue that Rory was not used to the species of grass whereas myself and pedro would be happy to accept that Rory choked on Sunday but is not in general a choker.


I don't accept the struggling with the greens argument as it is not like he didn't hole putts on days one to three and his issues on Sunday were a bit more than the odd misread. He panicked and started to play very poorly when in contention. Maybe my definition is a bit loose but that sure sounds like choking.

Robo - You know, I don't think Rory "chocked" in the sense I consider "choking". My observation was that, after the first hole, he wanted to go on a tear and perhaps dominate and intimidate others yet to tee off. Force his hand, so to speak. But, instead of going out in blaze of glory, he went down in flames. I think he's far too accomplished and comfortable in his own game to choke in a non-major event this early in his career and the season. Hope everyone followed my thinking here!

Well said Shotrock, Agree 100%.

Plus: There's a reason course specialists thrive on certain courses.
Part of that is the grasses, another part is just learning how to play the course. For Bubba, he only hit 2 fairways on Friday, but still shot (three under par) 68.
How? Because, as he said, I don't aim for the fairways here, I just aim to put my ball in a place to give me the best angle to the green/pin position.
And it worked. Add that he never missed a putt inside 5 ft, never 3-putted and you have a recipe for success.
Rory is at least as golf-smart as Bubba, can't imagine he won't learn Riviera and win there if he plays it regularly.

Shotrock

It will come as a shock to Kwini but I pretty much agree with you as well. As I said above I am just happy to label what you describe as a choke, albeit a very mild one.

Some Projections

With a win at the Perth International:

Oosty could get as high as 18th.
Uihlein, about ~120.
Wattel, about ~132.

With a win at the Honda:

Adam and Sergio:  as high as 9th
Barber:  Inside the top 100
Thomas:  20th
Fowler:  4th (and within striking distance of the #2 next week).

The only player in position to get an 11th hour invite to the Cadillac is Jaco Van Zyl who has a two shot lead in the Sunshine Tour event.  A win could get him to 48th in the rankings.

None of the OWGR 50 somethings acted like they wanted to play Cadillac.

Kirk, Gomez, Berger, Jones all Missed Cut
Poulter is T56th and he needed a Top 7 at worst.

Gomez still could qualify via Top 10 in FEX.

Hopefully Dufner will make it too - Hideki's w/d helps him a lot!

Do you know what "illness" Jaidee can possibly have which prevents him playing the Cadillac?
And whether he might be another brick out of the MatchPlay wall??

kwinigolfer wrote:Do you know what "illness" Jaidee can possibly have which prevents him playing the Cadillac?
And whether he might be another brick out of the MatchPlay wall??

I can imagine a lot of illnesses that he possibly can have that would prevent him from playing, but I sure hope he had none of them.

Has he pulled out of the Cadillac?

I do know that there is a tournament in Thailand the week after Cadillac and he might not want to fly to Miami and back to Thailand and then back to USA two weeks later for the Matchplay.

Definitely out according to pgatour.com. Watch that space, I suppose.
Usually the travel wouldn't bother him. Being as he is not just a trouper, but a paratrooper.

Adam Scott #8
Sergio #12
Oosty #19
Jaco #49  (on his way to Miami I presume)

Rickie still #5, just 1/10 pt behind Bubba.

#1 ranking is in jeopardy for the first time since Hyundai.  A Jason Day win and a poor finish by Spieth would J-Day is #1.  Rory can't get to the #1 spot

A Bubba win next week could catapult him to #2 if Day and Rory play poorly.

Match Play Implications

GMAC is now 55th, and looks to be safe for the Match Play.

Westy down to 56th.

Poulter is now 64th in the OWGR, and officially on the bubble for the Match Play.  He probably needs a top 15 finish at Valspar to qualify for Match Play.

GPB,
Given the absence of Furyk & Stenson, perhaps Poults has a bit more leeway?

kwinigolfer wrote:GPB,
Given the absence of Furyk & Stenson, perhaps Poults has a bit more leeway?

Fortunately for Poulter, he is losing the 2014 Cadillac on his divisor, so that will help, but he gains it right back at Valspar, if he plays.

Kaufman, Broberg, Dufner, KT Kim could easily pass him next week. Even Coetzee and Bowditch has an outside shot to pass him. My best guess is Poulter is going to start Valspar week in 66th or 67th, even after the tournament is taken off his divisor.

Kizzire is free rolling tournaments right now since he is under the 40 tournament divisor so any points he makes at Valspar.

IMO, IJP is going to need a decent tournament at Valspar to make the Matchplay.

So far as I can see, only 92 golfers are currently qualified for The Masters, and at least one of those, Furyk, is most unlikely to play.

There are opportunities to qualify remaining but, with just a few weeks to go, it is likely this year's field will be the smallest for many years.  Luke Donald and Padraig Harrington among those needing a miracle to book their trip.

Yep, only Vaughn Taylor has earned an invite since the beginning of the year.

Lingmerth and Jaco are the only players to break into the top 50 since the last 2015 Ranking.  Lingmerth already had an invite and Jaco's spot in the top 50 is tenuous at best..

Jaco's is fulfilling some obligations this week instead of playing Cadillac, and that could very well cost him a spot in the Masters.  

And I have done some further IJP projections for the MP.

Assuming Poulter does play Valspar, his OWGR avg will be 1.984 at the worst.

At this time, My best guess for the #66 spot is an 2.06 average.  IJP needs 3.75 pts to be at 2.06, and if Valspar is OWGR-50, that is a solo 19th spot.

If IJP does not play Valspar, his OWGR average will be 2.025 and I don't see any way that will qualify without a couple more Withdrawals from the Match Play.

kwinigolfer wrote:So far as I can see, only 92 golfers are currently qualified for The Masters, and at least one of those, Furyk, is most unlikely to play.

There are opportunities to qualify remaining but, with just a few weeks to go, it is likely this year's field will be the smallest for many years.  Luke Donald and Padraig Harrington among those needing a miracle to book their trip.

Paddy doesn't seem that bothered either isn't in the Valspar and is playing the Indian Open instead of the Bay Hill which won't offer near enough ranking points for him to get himself into the top 50....He should be playing every possible week on the PGA Tour in the lead up to the Masters to try and qualify! (Although he may play the Valspar as the field hasn't been updated in a while)

Would a win at the Indian Open get him into the match play? It's frustrating because has been playing better this season than he did last year but whatever! His putting has cost him dearly.

Invites to the Match Play go out March 14, after Valspar/Thailand and before Bay Hill/Indian Open, so the Indian Open doesn't count.

Paddy is about 60 pts from a Top 50 ranking.

I am sure he is being well compensated by playing in India.

Appearance fees don't sadly get you into the majors!! I have no idea where 50 pts would get him to in the rankings would it be anywhere close to the top 50? He probably barely gets into the top 100 right with a win at that event?

I'd assume he'll be playing the Valspar because surely he wants to be in the matchplay and attempting to get in the Masters field!

Can't see Padraig getting into The Masters unless he wins a PGA Tournament.
And can't see him reaching the MatchPlay full stop. I wonder if he play Puerto Rico if he missed the MatchPlay? Not that a win there would get him to Augusta, but he could certainly use the points.

50 pts would put Paddy into the low 50's of the OWGR.

Indian Open is going to be worth less than half of that.

sirbenson wrote:

kwinigolfer wrote:So far as I can see, only 92 golfers are currently qualified for The Masters, and at least one of those, Furyk, is most unlikely to play.

There are opportunities to qualify remaining but, with just a few weeks to go, it is likely this year's field will be the smallest for many years.  Luke Donald and Padraig Harrington among those needing a miracle to book their trip.

Paddy doesn't seem that bothered either isn't in the Valspar and is playing the Indian Open instead of the Bay Hill which won't offer near enough ranking points for him to get himself into the top 50....He should be playing every possible week on the PGA Tour in the lead up to the Masters to try and qualify! (Although he may play the Valspar as the field hasn't been updated in a while)

Would a win at the Indian Open get him into the match play? It's frustrating because has been playing better this season than he did last year but whatever! His putting has cost him dearly.

And for what it is worth, he is in the latest updated field of the Valspar!

Hi guys, how's it going? I'm out of touch with golf right now, has Andy Sullivan got into The Masters? If not, can he still make it?

Hi GW - the field listing HERE suggests he is qualified.

Edit: He's qualified on Cat17 - Top 50 in OWGR at the end of previous calendar year (he finished 36th)

Great news, thanks Bob!

gw,
Nothing to get excited about at Molyneux this year, time to catch up on here . . . . and on the course.

gw

Nice to hear from you. Don't worry its only really kwini that follows the golf on here the rest of us just tag along for the ride.

Hi kwini. Haha yeah your not wrongi! We're in limbo right now until we get a new owner, luckily we have point's on the board so should stay up now!

I really haven't watched any sport at all lately, busy with work (have been working close to Molineux stadium!) and doing exams, but I've done now so hopefully will have time to catch up.

Hey Mac, hows it going? yes I need to catch up with with the non golf talk too!

If Rickie Fowler has any kind of decent finish this weekend, the top 5 players in the OWGR will have higher averages than Lee Westwood's number 1 ranking in May 2011.  (assuming Watson doesn't crash and burn this weekend)

Right now Rickie's avg is 8.05, and Westwood's average in the May 15th, 2011 ranking was 8.10

With a win in the Cadillac:  

Adam and Dustin could get to #6
Rory will get to #2
Willett & Mickelson could get to #10
Bubba could get to #2
Hoffman could get to #22
Casey could get to #14

The Race to The Players and US Open!

princedrac reckons there will be 50 owgr points to the Hilton Head winner, just 26 or 28 to the one who reigns in Spain.
Kinda surprised the Spanish jackpot isn't higher - at least 15 Top 100 owgr golfers and thought that might nudge the prize to 30 or higher. But pd is invariably right . . . . . . .

Countdown to the Top 50 at the end of 2016 and an invitation to The Masters:
Andy Sullivan's T3 finish at Nedbank should almost assure him of a ticket to Augusta.

This should maybe be changed to end of year 2016. But anyway.


From princedrac on twitter.

Nosferatu ‏@VC606 wrote:No.1 in the world @JDayGolf will finish the year with 10.9145 avg. pts. That's the 3rd lowest in the last 20 years (only above 2010 & 2011).

I guess one of the other low years would have been Lee Westwood, if he finished the year number 1?