Donald Trump blows the White House in Muslim row !!

First topic message reminder :

Everyone moans about why we have professional politicians (nobody more than me) But "front runner" Trump last night shows why we do have professional politicians..

"We should ban all Muslims coming to America...because we don't know what their attitude is !!"........

This naive banding of all Muslims together may work with the religious right-apple-pie republicans but it's highly inflammatory and won't play well with the floaters.... the sensible GOPers.... or any one with an ethnic background..

It's not nazi Germany.....

Shame is with Iowa coming up.... the guy was winning according to the the GOP polling..........

As with all non professional politicians...Trump talks too much...

Bye bye Mr Trump..

Pr4wn wrote:He really is stupid.

While his initial investment was $1m he eventually inherited far more from his father.

His total net worth now is far less than it would be if he'd just invested everything into an index fund.

He's a spoilt little rich boy, that's all.

He played with daddy's money, when he failed and went broke he just went back for more. Never any risk taken.

Generous bankruptcy laws meant he could plunder his businesses then just wipe out his creditors by collapsing them and then just pop back round to the country club and recapitalise and start again.

Come on Donald, don't let the bas*ards get you down.

Look on the brightside...At least Donald has stopped looking for Obama's birth certificate...

In the lastest blow to Donald Trump, the Robert Gordon University in Aberdeen has revoked the honorary doctorate it had awarded him.

Corporalhumblebucket wrote:In the lastest blow to Donald Trump, the Robert Gordon University in Aberdeen has revoked the honorary doctorate it had awarded him.  

I bet Mr. Trump will be crying into his pillow for weeks.

Duty281 wrote:Come on Donald, don't let the bas*ards get you down.

I'm not letting Donald Trump, the bast*rd, get me down.

Trump is 18 points ahead in New Hampshire which comes straight after Iowa.....

My guess is If he wins both he's going to be hard to stop unless moderates like Bush and Christie drop out...

Rubio is the only one beating Clinton in head to head polls...

Trump would be a gift to Hillary.....

Hope he gets it...

Maybe Trump would turn the grounds of the White House into a golf course. What's a few planning restrictions if you've got shedloads of money.

Sanders 10pts clear in New Hampshire, but South Caroline saw Hilary jump 44pts.

TRUSSMAN66 wrote:
Rubio is the only one beating Clinton in head to head polls...

Not strictly true, CNN had Carson beating her as well.

The State ones are interesting. New Hampshire has Sanders beating Trump and Rubio by a bigger margin than Hilary.

North Carolina has Carson beating Clinton and Sanders by the biggest majorities, and has a Bush/Clinton tie.

Carson isn't going to win....Republicans aren't going to pick a black candidate..

Back on topic...

With very exceptions (the caning Obama gave McCain and the beatings Clinton handed out) America isn't really a country of huge victory margins. this leads me to believe even if trump does advance to the national dance, he'll be in with a shout. Problem is he's pretty much cannibalised whatever little Hispanic support republicans normally get on the voter's roll. He's also probably eaten into the neutral vote. But I think he'll make gains among the male electorate, especially if he goes up against Hilary. Democrats generally have the monolithic black vote, and I'd imagine the combination of a generation that's been accustomed to voting blue due to Obama and the fact that she's Bill's wife will mean that if anything it will only get stronger. Question is can the Don get enough women to swing red? the only election the GOP have won by a decent margin in the last 23 years, Bush almost won the female vote.

Clinton is just as unpopular as Donald in parts of the US.

Interestingly 68% of Trump supporters would vote for him if he ran as an Indy. A further 18% are undecided; that's not bad considering his views.

NY Times have released their poll figures and Trump now has a 19pt lead.

The biggest victories in the last 40 years by electoral votes and popular vote..

1984 Reagan - Mondale...59% to 40......
1988 Bush Sr - Dukakis...53% to 45......

Obama - Mccain and Clinton- Bush sr were much closer.........

Just so you know..

TRUSSMAN66 wrote:The biggest victories in the last 40 years by electoral votes and popular vote..

1984 Reagan - Mondale...59% to 40......
1988 Bush Sr - Dukakis...53% to 45......

Obama - Mccain and Clinton- Bush sr were much closer.........

Just so you know..

Thanks.. Guess my last 23 years qualifier didnt resonate. Helps to read the whole thing

I did read the whole thing was I reprimanding you ??

Four guys have won the popular vote and not the white house.....

Andrew Jackson - Great President he was (father of the democrats)...and the first to face attempted assasination....However he managed to gun down the assailant before he could do his job !!

Grover Cleveland - He became President later and remains the only President to get married in the white house...

Al Gore........screwed out of the prize....

and one other I can't remember...Think he might have lost to Fillmore

I don't know.. whatever.

The ultimate point Im making is its hard to win an election without the female roll, or at least competing in it. Can Trump either make gains on Hilary in the female roll, or get enough male votes to supplant her?

kingraf wrote:I don't know..  whatever.

The ultimate point

Right good...Let's move on...

Alistair wrote:

TRUSSMAN66 wrote:
Rubio is the only one beating Clinton in head to head polls...

Not strictly true, CNN had Carson beating her as well.

The State ones are interesting. New Hampshire has Sanders beating Trump and Rubio by a bigger margin than Hilary.

North Carolina has Carson beating Clinton and Sanders by the biggest majorities, and has a Bush/Clinton tie.

Sanders has more chance of beating Fury for the heavyweight title than getting the nomination...

Bush has shot his bolt..

kingraf wrote:I don't know..  whatever.

The ultimate point Im making is its hard to win an election without the female roll, or at least competing in it. Can Trump either make gains on Hilary in the female roll, or get enough male votes to supplant her?

Not a problem with women per se..

Republicans get more White women as a rule...Bush and Romney did !!.............

They do terribly with black and hispanic women.......

The problem the Republicans have is the age old one of getting the ethnic minorities on board..

Here's a tool you can play around with to get an idea of what effect swings among various ethnic groups would have:
http://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/2016-swing-the-election/

TRUSSMAN66 wrote:

Alistair wrote:

TRUSSMAN66 wrote:
Rubio is the only one beating Clinton in head to head polls...

Not strictly true, CNN had Carson beating her as well.

The State ones are interesting. New Hampshire has Sanders beating Trump and Rubio by a bigger margin than Hilary.

North Carolina has Carson beating Clinton and Sanders by the biggest majorities, and has a Bush/Clinton tie.

Sanders has more chance of beating Fury for the heavyweight title than getting the nomination...

Bush has shot his bolt..

I heard Trump was going to get Fury as his running mate.

When Boris Johnson is making you look a twit then you must be a pleb

Nothing wrong with BJ.

Successful pleb...

Success and plebosity are not to be confused

Alistair wrote:

TRUSSMAN66 wrote:
Rubio is the only one beating Clinton in head to head polls...

Not strictly true, CNN had Carson beating her as well.

The State ones are interesting. New Hampshire has Sanders beating Trump and Rubio by a bigger margin than Hilary.

North Carolina has Carson beating Clinton and Sanders by the biggest majorities, and has a Bush/Clinton tie.

First poll since the comments..Trump's lead has gone up 7 points to 25....That's massive..

Plays well to the apple pie types but he won't win in the long run..

Certainly hope The Fart has blown off his chances of the White House with this latest nonsense. What a prat. Excepting the obvious problem with U.S. muslims already in situ, picture the scene at some point of immigration:

Customs: You a follower of Islam?
Immigrant: Nope.
Customs: Fine. In you come then and no misbehaving.
Immigrant: Wouldn't dream of it. Tell me good man, where can I purchase an assault rifle?

The idea he's some latter day FDR is about as nonsensical as it's possible to be and even FDR wouldn't get away with the sort of things that were acceptable in the 1940s. Sorry Donald, you're a berk.

I'm certain the sort of people supporting Wiggy aren't unique to the U.S., but it's a bit concerning that someone so ridiculous in his statements appears to be so well supported in the land of the free and the home of democracy ( ). What does that say about U.S. ethnic tolerance etc, in general?

My view on Trump is that he has been 'selected' by those that shall remain nameless.

He is a sort of a probe to gage public reaction, ethics and fear which will give them more of chance implementing martial law and the NWO. He has been given a script and an avatar of this fed up all American man who wants a return the the much fabled good ol' days. For that you need an enemy so far he has signalled out Mexicans and Muslims as the source of everyones fears. There is a lot more things he should be focusing on like the economy but as I have said before he is a distraction from the real issues.

Seriously

I don't know very much about how American politics work.   I know they have a President and a Senate and a Congress but what they all do and how they interact with each other is a mystery to me.

I don't know how their electoral system really works.  I know the USA is a democracy and every man and woman of majority age has a vote but how the vote is translated into the election of a government is outside my realm of knowledge.

I don't really need to have a detailed knowledge of the two things above because I don't live in the USA, but I do know that US Foreign Policy affects the UK, often to their advantage and our detriment, but I do believe that they are at least (if only approximately) "on our side".

When somebody like Donald Trump spouts the sort of nonsense that is contained in his latest outburst, I would like to think the American people are too sensible to elect such a man to high office.  And then I remember that they not only elected G W Bush, but then re-elected the buffoon to a second term.

My instincts tell me that they couldn't possibly make such a horrendous error for the second time in a generation, but I don't think I'll really feel at ease until after the next election when  an individual other than Donald Trump holds the, albeit unofficial, title of "The World's Most Powerful Man".

I wouldn't worry about a bad egg coming into power in a democracy, Trump can only get in if the American people vote for him.

aja424 wrote:I wouldn't worry about a bad egg coming into power in a democracy, Trump can only get in if the American people vote for him.

That's what worries me.

One thing to consider with the polls at the moment is the fact that  a third of the States have open primaries !!!...More importantly early ones...

Also others like New Hampshire have semi-open primaries where unaffiliated voters can vote in the race they choose..

In those States with open primaries you can be a democrat and vote in the GOP race..

In these States you generally have organized operations by Democrats and Republicans usually to lumber the GOP or the Dems with a leader they don't want........Or more generally many vote for a potential winner they can stomach !!...

The idea behind this...is that if these people are interested enough to vote in your primary they may be interested enough to vote for you in the presidential election..

Good example would be Mccain who without open, semi-open primaries would never have fought Obama......In some of the early States MCCain would have lost to Romney as Romney got more GOP votes........But he didn't... McCain got the momentum... and big business backed the likely winner on super Tuesday.....

These early states generally have fewer delegates but it's all about the mo !!!....Big business donors generally wait to see where the wind is blowing..

Which poses a question about Trump...............Will voters in New Hampshire and S Carolina try to get him over thinking he can't win in November or will they vote for a Rubio who they can perhaps stomach ???.....

As most Democrats know The-Hill is a shoe in.....There should be plenty voting in the GOP open primaries..

Your guess is as good as mine what will happen !!!!.

Trump has just gone ahead in Iowa for the first time....Iowa is the first primary (caucus anyway)....

Right wingers seem to like this Muslim hard talk...

If he takes Iowa and New Hampshire then people will start to believe in his chances...All about the mo !!..

No chance of being President though !!...Aunt Hill has that wrapped up..

500,000 the latest figure of people signing a ban Trump from Britain petition..

Still at least Katie Hopkins like him..

Banning him is moronic. Why is it that the modern Britain seeks to ban everything it doesn't like?

Let him come here and embarrass himself.

Why would he embarrass himself ???

Whilst I reckon he's blown the white house with his rhetoric.......

As an outsider to win the GOP nomination....He's stirring the crap pot and doing a good job of it..............

The hawks and apple pie brigade thet make up a lot of the membership...love this kind of talk...

His problem comes when the rank and file candidates start dropping out..

Pr4wn wrote:Banning him is moronic. Why is it that the modern Britain seeks to ban everything it doesn't like?

Let him come here and embarrass himself.

I think the petition represents what's great about Great Britain. And for that greatness to be continued to a conclusion, it should be properly and democratically debated - and then thrown out as hogwash.

TRUSSMAN66 wrote:Trump has just gone ahead in Iowa for the first time....Iowa is the first primary (caucus anyway)....

For the first time? He's been in second there for maybe a month in total since August...

Lowlandbrit wrote:

TRUSSMAN66 wrote:Trump has just gone ahead in Iowa for the first time....Iowa is the first primary (caucus anyway)....

For the first time? He's been in second there for maybe a month in total since August...

Cruz has been leading in Iowa for a while now....

"Trump has gone ahead in Iowa for the first time in a while"...................There you go..

Quinnipiac poll (Iowa) - Trump 31....Cruz 29...........Rubio 9..........

Monmouth poll (New Hamp) - Trump 30.......Rubio 14.......Cruz 10..........

Three horse race it seems............Rubio's turn comes when the rank and file GOPers drop out of the race.....

Anybody is better than Cruz.............including Trump.

Rubio wins the nomination me..............

Rasmussen poll - Is the USA headed in the right direction under Obama ??

Yes - 28%
No - 67% ..............................

Current bookie odds:

Clinton 10/11
Trump 9/2
Rubio 11/2
Sanders 10/1
Cruz 12/1
Bush 22/1
Christie 40/1
Biden 66/1
Kanye West 1000/1

Trump favorite for GOP..............

Can't see that.......But I couldn't see McCain getting it in 2008..

Hilary a shoe in for me..

On the basis I think Reps will sneak it, can't see Dems holding (too many unhappy rednecks and general muppets), I might stick a cheeky few squids on Trump as next President.......

The situation with Trump may well end up being a repeat of when Jean-Marie Le Pen ended up going against Jacques Chirac for the French presidency. Many French voters went with the FN in the primaries but Chirac won by a landslide in the end.

I don't even think the Americans are stupid enough to vote Trump in as POTUS. (No offence intended, Trussy)

You're being hard on Trump..........He's nothing like Lepen in France......

He wants to stop muslims coming in until the USA knows where it is security wise and can filter out the crap.....

But I don't think he's xenophobic......He's just trying to scaremonger himself into the GOP nomination..

A lot depends on whether more crap hits the Hilary fan over the e-mail scandal.......Could more trouble for Hillary ahead..

Im surprised the vote against Obama was so negatively against him. The emerging markets worldwide are sinking like rocks because of the strength of the US economy (and the Flaky Chinese but that's by the by). If it goes any better there'll be an emerging market meltdown!!

Obama has a job approval average of 43% .............for 2/3 of his term....

That puts him..................since the war...

Reagan
Eisenhower
Kennedy
Clinton
Bush sr
Johnson
Nixon
Bush jr
OBAMA
Carter
Truman
Ford.........
---------------------------------------------------

Johnson had Vietnam...................Ford had the energy crisis and the burden of pardoning Nixon... and Truman the communist witch hunt.......Carter was basically an American Ed Miliband..

Obama in fairness inherited a mess but still a mystery as to why he's so low..

Pr4wn wrote:The situation with Trump may well end up being a repeat of when Jean-Marie Le Pen ended up going against Jacques Chirac for the French presidency. Many French voters went with the FN in the primaries but Chirac won by a landslide in the end.

I'm not sure you can really compare. The French don't have official "primaries", certainly they didn't in 2002. What they have is a two round presidential election, with the top two candidates from the first round facing off in the second round*. Some parties may have primaries to decide who'll represent them in the first round, the socialists having introduced the idea in 2007, but usually it's the head of the party at the time who stands for president.

Usually, i.e. at all other presidential elections other than 2002**, the candidates who make it through to the second round duel will be one from the right-wing LR (Les Républicains), formerly UMP, formerly RPR, etc. and one candidate from the left-wing PS (Parti Socialiste). In 2002 for various reasons the socialist candidate Jospin disappointed, scoring only 16% of the votes cast, with Le Pen on 17% (roughly). Chirac topped the first round with 20%, itself an incredibly low score for an incumbent president. In fact, there was a high abstention rate, i.e. low number of voters, and a lot of the votes cast went to the smaller parties.

Faced with a choice between a right-wing moderate in Chirac and a far right extremist in Le Pen, the voters overwhelmingly chose Chirac in the second round, and he received more than 80% of votes cast. It's worth mentioning that very often candidates who are knocked out in the first round will give official "voting instructions" for how their voters should vote in round 2, and in 2002 every party called to vote for Chirac, except for another far right party (breakaway from the Front National) who had only about 1.5% of the votes - they told their voters to vote Le Pen - and a far-left party who called for their voters to abstain, although most of them voted for Chirac anyway.

Typically, in a "normal" second round, the split will be no wider than 53-47 or so between the two candidates.

For Trump to "do a Le Pen" would take a large part of the Republican voting base not to vote for him (assuming he wins the nomination, obviously not guaranteed by any means yet).

Basically, as long as the left-wing voters (who will never touch the FN) turned out to vote in the second round in 2002, Le Pen was always going to be absolutely hammered. Whereas, make no mistake, if Trump wins the Republican nomination there's a very real chance he could be elected. Hillary would rightly start as favourite, but let's not be complacent.

Worth mentioning of course that the FN is doing stupidly well at the moment in France, and as things stand is likely to make the second round of the presidential elections next year, where they'd do significantly better than in 2002.

*except if one of the candidates gets more than 50% of the votes in the first round, in which case he's elected without need for a second round, but that hasn't happened since De Gaulle in the 50s IIRC.

**IIRC it hasn't always been LR vs PS, at times a more centre-right party made the second round, and I think the Communist candidate may have made the second round early on in the fifth republic...

I understand that they're not directly comparable in that the terminology is not the same but the scenario is broadly similar. I honestly believe that if Trump secures the nomination, he'll be hammered.