US Open - Day Seven

First topic message reminder :

The US Open enters its second week and match of the day is Novak Djokovic against Kyle Edmund. Everybody's money would be on Novak but he comes into this match with question marks hanging over his form and mindset plus he has had a lack of court time here and Kyle comes into it in the form of his life but how will he react to the big occasion on Arthur Ashe? Who knows? Rafa Nadal should have few problems you'd think against Lucas Pouille and Tsonga V Sock is very interesting whilst Monfils takes on Baghdhatis - a clash of two characters. Konta kicks things off on Arthur Ashe against unseeded Latvian Sevastova. Straight-forward? It looks it.

laverfan wrote:Surprised to see Pouille keep his focus and win. ( 3 5-setters, 1 4-setter).

Well played, Nadal!

Hello LF, good to see you.  I hope things are well on your end.

Regarding Rafa, I agree.  If he always plays like this I will be happy

(I know I am being mischievous here, but it is all meant in good humor.  He has won his 14 slams and that is the least number he will finish with, and yet may win more, so I hope his fans can take a bit of needling - and it is not like my dear Fed has been winning any more slams than Rafa as of late anyway).

That's two consecutive slam quarters for Pouille. Great to see some slam consistency from one of the yougsters

I thought the comments from Willander and Mac were more patronising than ever, when someone dares to challenge Rafa or Roger. Cleary they seem to have forgotten Pouille's Wimby run

And no Rafa isn't finished. On his day, with Roger out I think he's only behind the top two and there is never any guarantee about Andy beating him, given their past

So he can hold his head high and look forward to an even better 2017, assuming he's fit

I've a feeling we'll have a brand new winner. Murray's got that washed out look he seems to save for this slam, meaning he's always at his worst here (see any year apart from 2008, 11 and 12). And I'm not confident that Novak is good enough to beat one of the on form 'B' players (either of the other French players for instance)

Just as it seemed that Rafa was gradually regaining some confidence and working his way back towards better days, he falls short against a player with far less big match experience.

Only the WTF for him to target between now and season's end.

Remains to be seen just how much motivation he will have in 2017, and how well the ageing limbs will hold up.

Somewhat cherry picked quoting of yourself though summer blues. I think you forgot to quote the part where you said Rafa should win easily against Pouille, or something of that nature.

Also, I haven't to second the wow on the forehand at 6-6. He was so close to the net, it was slow, it wasn't low, boy that was an easy shot. I could have got that over.

Perhaps one of the two worst forehands I can remember from his entire career. The other was one he shanked into the crowd from an easy position against Djokovic in the wimbledon 2011 final.

Henman Bill wrote:Somewhat cherry  picked quoting of yourself though summer blues.

I have been following the election season here in the US quite closely, maybe that is where I inadvertently learnt it.

summerblues wrote:Pouille has played 19 sets in the first four rounds and still was able to go toe-to-toe with Rafa in the fifth today.

Proving once again that fitness is overrated in tennis?

Born Slippy wrote:

summerblues wrote:Pouille has played 19 sets in the first four rounds and still was able to go toe-to-toe with Rafa in the fifth today.

Proving once again that fitness is overrated in tennis?

I am too tired right now to get into a long argument on this, but maybe the man is fit?  Evans folded physically in the fifth, proving once again that fitness is underrated in tennis?

Mere cherry picking would not make you a Presidential candidate. Try some outright lying and random inflammatory racist and misogynistic insults to get yourself properly warmed up.

Unfortunately the time I sit down to the TV seems to be the bit in between the day and night time sessions, nothing going on.

summerblues wrote:I will humbly suggest I was correct here last night :

summerblues wrote:

Henman Bill wrote:Rafa's absolutely cruised along so far, btw.

I do not know what to think of Rafa's game.  I saw bits and pieces of his matches.  On one hand, as you say, he has been cruising.  On the other hand, he did not look all that convincing to me.  He dropped the serve quite a few times, sometimes in semi-critical moments, his shots do not always have much depth, still makes more UEs than one would "normally" expect of him.

Leon Smith providing analysis for the BBC wrote:From Leon Smith: "Lucas Pouille has everything, he has a big serve, is not scared about coming forward to the net and has a strong forehand and backhand. There is no hole in his game and someone is going to have to play really well to beat him.

Nadal does not have the speed that he used to have and makes a few more unforced errors. He is not as clinical as he was in his prime. He is still playing very well, but is not playing as well as he used to.

It just shows the difference between an all conquering grand slam winning legend and someone that gets knocked out before the quarterfinals of a slam more or less every time.  Nadal might look good but he no longer has that something extra he used to have.

lags72 wrote:Just as it seemed that Rafa was gradually regaining some confidence and working his way back towards better days, he falls short against a player with far less big match experience.

Only the WTF for him to target between now and season's end.

Remains to be seen just how much motivation he will have in 2017, and how well the ageing limbs will hold up.

It puts Roger Federer's longevity into context - he has still been reaching QF, SF and Finals at Grand Slams, although we don't know whether he will be able to overcome the various injuries he picked up this year (off court injuries I believe).

Ps: Keeping my fingers crossed that Del Potro is over his injury nightmares and is able to mount a challenge for the slams again.

I would not mind Delpo getting back to the slam winning circle, but I doubt he will. He just does not have BH anymore. Considering that, he is doing incredibly well and yes, he does have the most lethal forehand, but I think that he will find it hard to challenge at the highest level.

So disappointing that Kyle was unable to make more of an impression v Novak, but he has of course had a really great USO nonetheless, and can hopefully continue to kick on from here. He's an exciting player to watch, no doubt.

Djokovic meanwhile is firing on all cylinders once again, and I see no evidence whatever of the oft-mentioned 'troubles' he has been going through - whether physical or mental. He is a stronger title favourite IMO than Murray, but that doesn't mean I discount Andy's chances.

Reflecting on Rafa for a minute ......I do wonder just how long he would be motivated to continue in the game when/if he gets into an extended pattern of consistently failing to make Slam Finals or at least SF's, as was the norm in times past.

I could well be wrong, but I just get the impression that Rafa needs to be winning big titles to maintain his enthusiasm - in notable contrast to Federer whose love of the sport, thus far, remains seemingly undiminished even after a good few Slam-less years.

Rafa has held a pro ranking since 2001, so has now been on the tour for 15 long years. Yet despite the many remarkable achievements during an unquestionably glittering career, he has only truly dominated this sport in fairly short spells. His best run of consecutive weeks at Number 1 puts him 11th in the all-time league ; and even with his current total cumulative weeks (141), he is only 7th.

Fair to say that 2017 will be pivotal in determining whether retirement is imminent ; or whether it is still some way off. I happen to think that he could just as likely come into a new season all guns blazing and win the AO. Or get knocked out in R1 or R2.

Edmund exits tamely in straight sets against Djokovic. Obviously, the result was not s surprise and for it to be any different it needed Edmund to maintain a high level and Djokovic to continue his unsure form. Neither happened. Edmund's first serve was off snd hos groundstrokes lacked the accuracy of previous rounds whilst Novak looked more like his old self. Still Edmund can take so much from this tournament and it will act as a good learning curve for him.

Novak will now go into his QF as fresh as a daisy and a boost to his confidence. An ominous proposition for the rest of the field.

I think the big problem for Rafa is that he's not losing close five set matches at slams to Djokovic or Murray. Or even Nishikori or Del Potro.

He's losing them to the likes of Verdasco, Fognini & Pouille.

Despite his game being fitness based for so many years, he's actually better in best of three now.

Rafa said in his presser that he's enjoying his practices and enjoying tennis now unlike last year so I doubt he would quit anytime soon even if he's not winning anything big. He says he's still good for a couple of years - I've a feeling he intends to play till at least 2018. He seems to be like Fed these days, enjoying tennis even when not winning the big prizes but will try to win some of them.

He has lost three five setters at three of the last four slams he played in and each time he lost from a winning position. This time he was much closer to winning and I think his serve was his downfall this time, having problems holding serves. If he can fix that problem he will be in a better position to win such matches. We have to bear in mind too that his FH, esp the DTL shots, are not back to normal yet. What's encouraging was his net approaches and points won at the net. Going forward, he should concentrate on winning points there instead of sticking with his baseline game when he, like Fed, should realize that as he grows older, he's not going to win that many long rallies.

Perhaps he's more realistic than many of his fans, not expecting to win slam so soon after coming back from injury but he felt sad for not progressing in a doable draw. His fans, some of them, were upset that he couldnt progress to win the title, a bit ambitious I think, unlike Rafa himself who is not expecting himself to win this USO.

Contrary to Lags' post, I doubt that Fed would be playing if it was over 2 years since he last made a slam SF and over a year since he made a slam QF. I think he plays because he still (rightly) believes he is competitive at the very highest level.

Amazingly, the likelihood is that Rafa will be number 3 in the world after the US Open - with slam results this year of R1, R3, A and R4.

Born Slippy wrote:

Amazingly, the likelihood is that Rafa will be number 3 in the world after the US Open - with slam results this year of R1, R3, A and R4.

It happens. Hewitt nailed down World No.1 slot on hardly dynamic run of results in slams.

Rafa will be no.3 only when Stan couldnt defend his SF points and Kei not progressing past the SF. The top two guys are so far ahead in terms of ranking points, leaving the no.3 to no.6 guys in the 4000 points range with one to two hundred points difference among them. If Monfils or Tsonga wins the whole thing, one of them will shoot up to top 6 with 4000 plus points too.

To be fair it doesn't feel like Rafa or Stan is the third best player in the world.

Not sure who is though. Raonic according to the race.

I actually think Rafa, Raonic or Nishikori have quite even shouts for this honour.

Belovedluckyboy wrote:Rafa ...  I think his serve was his downfall this time, having problems holding serves.  ...  should realize that as he grows older, he's not going to win that many long rallies. ...

Rafa has never had a particular potent serve unlike big serving Federer, Murray and Djokovic.  He has a low ace count compared to them (surely).  

He tended to win points on his ground strokes and moving his opponents out of position rather than directly on his serve.  As he has slowed down and has less bite on his ground strokes it has become more difficult for him to hold serve, while his opponents now believe they have a realistic chance against him.  

I think that is the key to him losing nowadays.   His opponents are able to maintain motivation and tend not to fade away - they know that maintaining the effort in a long battle could be rewarding rather than being hopeless.

Djokovic showed this could be done even near to Nadals peak in 2011 (except clay), but Nadal has dropped off significantly since 2011, meaning that the same tactic works for the "lesser players" as well as on the clay.

Nah, Nadal now doesnt even have his old serve. He was netting so many of his first serves that its ridiculous. There were some games where he couldnt make a single first serve, that's how bad his serve has become. His second serve has also deteriorated that it become so attackable, no wonder he's putting pressure on his first serve hence all the faults.

I think he feels rushed with the time limit thing going on, thats my take. You talked about Nadal's drop off since 2011 but you have forgotten how well he played in 2013. He was even better in 2013 than his 2010 imo except on clay (and grass). Its really after he injured his back at AO2014 that started his decline. Perhaps his back injury had also contributed towards his bad serving.

Nore Staat wrote:


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Rafa has never had a particular potent serve unlike big serving Federer, Murray and Djokovic.  He has a low ace count compared to them (surely).

.....................................................

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Yes, well behind both Murray (ranked no. 25 in the ace league table) and Djokovic (31). Rafa sits at 84.

Rafa has many special weapons but his serve has never been amongst them.

Didn't realise till I checked that only one active player has served more aces than Federer. No prizes for guessing who that might be.

(the league table covers both active & inactive players, and I assume  - though not 100% sure - is up to date :
http://www.atpworldtour.com/en/stats/aces)

I just looked at Pouille's early round scores in some detail.  I did not realize how close he was to losing to Chiudinelli in Rd2.  Chiudinelli was serving for the match in the third set at 5:4.

Just a few days later the same Pouille beats Rafa.  Funny fickle sport can be.

Unless he is faking it, Thiem appears to be having some leg issue. He has been serving his first serves at just over 100Mph and is now taking an MTO.

I guess he was not faking it. Delpo through with little energy wasted; yet to drop a set.

Too bad, I was having high hopes for this match.

lags72 wrote:

Nore Staat wrote: ... Rafa has never had a particular potent serve unlike big serving Federer, Murray and Djokovic.  He has a low ace count compared to them (surely).  ...

Yes, well behind both Murray (ranked no. 25 in the ace league table) and Djokovic (31). Rafa sits at 84. ...

Didn't realise till I checked that only one active player has served more aces than Federer. No prizes for guessing who that might be.

(the league table covers both active & inactive players, and I assume  - though not 100% sure - is up to date :
http://www.atpworldtour.com/en/stats/aces)

Thanks for that data.  So I did a little analysis: I took the first 100 on that list then, rather than list it according to total number of aces, I relisted it according to aces per match.  The result was that Ivo Karlovic was still first, Roger Federer drops from third to 45th.  Andy Murray drops to 60th.  Djokovic drops to 78th, and Nadal drops to 99th with only Ferrer below Nadal.  When I include more players from the list (outside the top 100 on the total ace count), Nadal drops and drops.

Selected Aces Per Match Ranking (relisted from those in the top 100 of the total ace count)
1) Ranking (Aces / Match)  2) Player Name 3) Average Aces per Match
1 Ivo Karlovic 19.4
2 John Isner 17.2
4 Milos Raonic 14.9
9 Sam Querrey 12.1
11 Kevin Anderson 11.8
12 Andy Roddick 11.7
13 Greg Rusedski 11.2
14 Pete Sampras 11.0
20 Jo-Wilfried Tsonga 9.8
28 Marin Cilic 8.6
32 Gael Monfils 8.4
45 Roger Federer 7.7
46 Tomas Berdych 7.7
53 Stan Wawrinka 7.0
54 Juan M del Potro 7.0
60 Andy Murray 6.9
68 Lleyton Hewitt 6.2
78 Novak Djokovic 5.5
87 Andre Agassi 4.8
99 Rafael Nadal 2.9
100 David Ferrer 2.8

Andy Murray is not too far away from Roger Federer but I guess Murray's first serve percentage and second serve are not as good as Federers.

Djokovic seems to have a question mark over his fitness. It looks like he will be able to win the title regardless however, if he avoids Murray or someone playing lights out.