Australian Open Draw/Preview

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Australian Open Draw/Preview

Post by sirfredperry on Thu 11 Jan 2018, 8:35 am

Draw just about to be made, so thought it would be a good idea to post a new topic. While Federer has to be favourite for the men's title, the women's champion is really hard to predict.

Draw done. Dimi in Rafa's half of the draw. Stan the Man, Djoko, Thiem and A Zverev all in Fed's half. Kyle Edmund has tough opener in Kevin Anderson. Federer has tough quarter, with Raonic, Querrey and delpo all in that quarter. Looks like bottom half tougher than top, but we've seen players make light work of hard draws before.

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Re: Australian Open Draw/Preview

Post by Guest82 on Thu 11 Jan 2018, 9:48 am

Nice draw for Rafa. Gets to play himself in easily.

Dimitrov potentially has to get past Kyrgios before any potential semi-final with Rafa.

Bottom half definitely stacked.

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Re: Australian Open Draw/Preview

Post by slashermcguirk on Thu 11 Jan 2018, 10:42 am

Horror draw for Novak. Potential route to the final!!

Donald young
Monfils
Vinolas
Alexander Zverev
Wawrinka
Federer
Nadal

To be honest I would be very surprised if Novak survives a round or two before retiring with injury. I just cannot see him being able to compete over 5 sets with so little match practise. That draw would be brutal any time but on return from injury it is a shocker.

Good draw for Nadal but again I think injury might scupper his chances.

I think this is all opening up for Federer again.

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Re: Australian Open Draw/Preview

Post by Guest82 on Thu 11 Jan 2018, 11:00 am

Awful for Djokovic. If he's close to 100% then he should be okay to get to R4. Then the fun might begin, but Zverev has a record of not going deep in slams.

Don't think Stan will play to be honest, he pulled out of Tie Break Tens, so can't see him competing in a slam.

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Re: Australian Open Draw/Preview

Post by CaledonianCraig on Thu 11 Jan 2018, 11:01 am

slashermcguirk wrote:Horror draw for Novak. Potential route to the final!!

Donald young
Monfils
Vinolas
Alexander Zverev
Wawrinka
Federer
Nadal

To be honest I would be very surprised if Novak survives a round or two before retiring with injury. I just cannot see him being able to compete over 5 sets with so little match practise. That draw would be brutal any time but on return from injury it is a shocker.

Good draw for Nadal but again I think injury might scupper his chances.

I think this is all opening up for Federer again.

To be honest I think Novak will be delighted just to be back playing again. Anything else he will take as a big bonus.
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Re: Australian Open Draw/Preview

Post by lags72 on Thu 11 Jan 2018, 12:59 pm

I have a hunch that Kyrgios may actually be a serious contender this year. Recent reports of his form - AND, crucially, demeanour & attitude - have been very positive. If he gets his act together, then he will benefit from strong crowd support, and he’s the sort of character to feed off that.

If Djokovic gets through his early rounds unscathed, with a chance to play himself in ‘comfortably’, he could go far - despite a seemingly challenging draw. This is his best Slam of course and I believe he could win it.

Rafa - up until his early end to last season - was playing extremely well and the enforced rest will have been only a good thing, given how much he played during 2017. Definitely a major threat.

Federer seems in positive mood. He should go deep. But I just don’t see him retaining his crown. He can, we know, beat anyone & everyone on the day. That said ....there really does come a point when having to play against younger (often, much younger) opponents in every single match has to take its toll.

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Re: Australian Open Draw/Preview

Post by slashermcguirk on Thu 11 Jan 2018, 2:14 pm

Kygrios is certainly a threat but he always seems to make a balls of it and rarely if ever goes deep in a slam. Has he ever even reached a QF in a slam??

Very hard to see past Federer.

The other ones to watch are Thiem, Zverev, Dimitrov and Goffin. Will they finally step up in a slam and take out the big guns?? they have yet to do it but perhaps the Oz open is the perfect time to catch the top players cold being the first slam of the year.

I just hope Djokovic gets through the tournament without injury, every match he wins will be a bonus

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Re: Australian Open Draw/Preview

Post by Guest82 on Thu 11 Jan 2018, 3:15 pm

Kyrgios has two slam quarter-finals - Wimbledon 2014 and Australia 2015.

Didn't get past R2 last year. Think he was injured for nearly all of them though.

Think he struggles with BO5 and two weeks. Get the feeling he's always likely to have a mental lapse at some point during a slam, especially if the going gets tough.

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Re: Australian Open Draw/Preview

Post by Born Slippy on Thu 11 Jan 2018, 3:16 pm

Very good draw for Novak. Monfils is a test in R2 but one he should pass. He had to face a top 4 player in R4 given his seeding, so Zverev is the easiest option. Stan probably isn’t fit and Fed followed by Rafa is probably the better way round (rather than knackering himself against Rafa and meeting a fresh Fed in the final).

If he’s fit, that’s about as good as he could hope for.

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Re: Australian Open Draw/Preview

Post by slashermcguirk on Thu 11 Jan 2018, 3:25 pm

Born Slippy, have to disagree. Donald young is no mug for starters, I think he was near the top 30 at one point. Monfils can beat anybody on his day (admittedly he can be awful at times too but you would have to think the big occasion would raise his game). Vinolas had some great results in 2017 and that was probably his best year on tour.

Those are very tough matches for the first 3 rounds, particularly for Novak given he has hardly played a match in 6 months. He could have faced a qualifier and other lower ranked players, instead pretty much all his opponents are or were up until recently top 30 players.

The potential meeting with zverev, wawrinka, Federer and nadal back to back would be near impossible (if they all make it that far, stan is a big question mark)

Definitely the toughest draw of the top players

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Re: Australian Open Draw/Preview

Post by theslosty on Thu 11 Jan 2018, 3:51 pm

It is a tough draw for Novak but you have to remember he is 14th seed and can't expect the easy sort of run to the quarters/semis as he would usually get.

Worth bearing in mind Fed went all the way last year as 17th seed, beating Berdych, Nishikori, Wawrinka and Nadal.
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Re: Australian Open Draw/Preview

Post by theslosty on Thu 11 Jan 2018, 4:17 pm

Rafa will surely be happiest, as long as he is fit there is no one that should trouble him up until perhaps Cilic in the quarters.
I hope it doesn't happen but would not be surprised if this draw opens up the way the USO did for him last year.

Having said that, Federer remains favourite for me especially given the Melbourne courts should play quick. Really it is quite bizarre that the heavy favourite is 36 years old but I haven't seen any signs that Fed is losing any sharpness yet - looked in great nick at the Hopman Cup last week. I would say it's in his interest to avoid long 5 setters but he came through 3 in last year's tournament... clearly the normal rules don't apply to Fed.

Only seen a couple of snippets of Novak's play in warm up exhibitions but was not impressed with what I saw. It appears he has shortened his service motion, possibly to protect that elbow.

Dimitrov is probably the best of the rest and he had a good run in Melbourne last year, however I just feel he's always liable to throwing in a stinker performance and may come unstuck at some point. Agree with others that I can't see Kyrgios staying focused for 2 consecutive weeks. Reckon these courts are too quick for Thiem. I like Goffin but probably needs someone else to take out Federer for him.
Zverev's time will come but still looks a bit raw to me, not sure his mental game has fully developed yet. Del Potro is probably the name (besides Nadal) that worries me most as a Federer supporter - however his draw is a minefield with the dangerous Tiafoe and Khachanov in his first 2 rounds.

I'd also watch out for Shapavalov and Rublev - either look capable of making a decent run or causing an upset.
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Re: Australian Open Draw/Preview

Post by slashermcguirk on Thu 11 Jan 2018, 5:18 pm

Fair point theslosty

I forgot that Federer was seeded 17th last year and it is easy to forget that he did come through a lot of big names to win it. The Nadal final stands out but I forgot that he also beat Wawrinka and Nishikori. Berdych is also a big name but he has taken steps back in recent years.

I am still a bit surprised that Berdych never won a slam. He just seemed to lack the mental strength and variety in his game but you have to admire his consistency over so many years being in the top 5 or 6 players in the world and to his credit he is rare company having beaten the likes of Federer, Murray and Djokovic in multiple slams. His overall record against Djokovic though is horrendous

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Re: Australian Open Draw/Preview

Post by MrInvisible on Fri 12 Jan 2018, 3:14 pm

No mention of Jack Sock? No, I don't think he's capable of winning the whole thing, but I thought he really stepped up a level in Paris and London last year. He's got a nice looking draw (being no. 8 seed helps!) and ought to reach at least 4th round, where he'd play either Anderson or Pouille based on seedings - that quarter looks v open.

I agree that Kyrgios, provided he stays injury free, ought to go far. Rublev will surely beat Ferrer in 1st round and could win couple more. Tough draw for Edmund - up against Anderson in 1st round, and if he wins that either Herbert or Istomin could be tricky in 2nd round - mind you these are the players Kyle needs to be beating if he's to get into top 30.

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Re: Australian Open Draw/Preview

Post by naxroy on Fri 12 Jan 2018, 4:14 pm

nice draw for rafa if he is fit

but who knows....

2017 was such a big surprise, we can expect anything now

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