Wales vs Ireland - Round 5

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Wales vs Ireland - Round 5 - Page 3 Empty Wales vs Ireland - Round 5

Post by maestegmafia on Sun 10 Mar 2019, 6:12 pm

First topic message reminder :

SAT 16 MAR 2019
GUINNESS SIX NATIONS
Kick Off 14:45
Principality Stadium

Teams TBA Thursday the 14th March

Referee Angus Gardner (Australia)
Assistant 1 Ben O'Keeffe (New Zelaand)
Assistant 2 Karl Dickson (England)
TMO Marius Jonker (South Africa)


Wales:

L Williams (Saracens); North (Ospreys), J Davies (Scarlets), Parkes (Scarlets), Adams (Worcester); Anscombe (Cardiff Blues), G Davies (Scarlets); R Evans (Scarlets), Owens (Scarlets), Francis (Exeter Chiefs), Beard (Ospreys), AW Jones (Ospreys, capt), Navidi (Cardiff Blues), Tipuric (Ospreys), Moriarty (Dragons).

Replacements: Dee (Dragons), Smith (Ospreys), D Lewis (Cardiff Blues), Ball (Scarlets), Wainwright (Dragons), A Davies (Ospreys), Biggar (Northampton), Watkin (Ospreys).



Ireland:


Kearney; Earls, Ringrose, Aki, Stockdale; Sexton, Murray; Healy, Best (capt), Furlong, Beirne, Ryan, O'Mahony, O'Brien, Stander.

Replacements: Scannell, Kilcoyne, Porter, Roux, Conan, Marmion, Carty, Larmour.


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Post by rodders on Tue 12 Mar 2019, 9:42 am

Wales for me are definitely favorites, even at a neutral venue this one is 50:50 game. Ireland are defending champions and ranked higher but Wales have a very good recent record against Ireland and both teams are pretty evenly matched.

When you factor in that Wales are at home, with GS slam to play for plus Ireland's 6 day turn around then Wales are definitely favourites.

That said I'm actually quite confident from an Ireland perspective. I think we have turned a corner against France and have been steadily building after a poor start to the tournament. Wales have been grinding out victories but the England game aside haven't really played that well.

All winning runs have to come to an end, whether Wales can hang on for one more game we will have to see.

I expect a classic here and probably a one score game that will go down to the wire.
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Post by SecretFly on Tue 12 Mar 2019, 9:54 am

It's 50/50 whether we want the roof opened or not. We'll make our decision after the game.

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Post by maestegmafia on Tue 12 Mar 2019, 9:55 am

rodders wrote:Wales for me are definitely favorites, even at a neutral venue this one is 50:50 game. Ireland are defending champions and ranked higher but Wales have a very good recent record against Ireland and both teams are pretty evenly matched.

When you factor in that Wales are at home, with GS slam to play for plus Ireland's 6 day turn around then Wales are definitely favourites.

That said I'm actually quite confident from an Ireland perspective. I think we have turned a corner against France and have been steadily building after a poor start to the tournament. Wales have been grinding out victories but the England game aside haven't really played that well.

All winning runs have to come to an end, whether Wales can hang on for one more game we will have to see.

I expect a classic here and probably a one score game that will go down to the wire.

Ireland have improved dramatically every game this tournament as Sexton and Murray’s fitness improved.

Larmour looks a far more comfortable cover if Kearney is out.

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Post by SecretFly on Tue 12 Mar 2019, 9:56 am

Thanks Rodders - so a game for the mobile heart starting units? Good call. Everybody is happy now.

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Post by maestegmafia on Tue 12 Mar 2019, 9:58 am

SecretFly wrote:Thanks Rodders - so a game for the mobile heart starting units?  Good call.  Everybody is happy now.

Sponsored by the local AED, find out why your nearest one is before watching.

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Post by Afro on Tue 12 Mar 2019, 9:59 am

Scarpia wrote:Weather forecast very wet. Will Ireland want the roof open or closed?

I'm going to say closed. I think the balance of this game is if the Irish can get past the Welsh defence. That is going to come down to either quick moving, clever attacks, or kicking into any space in behind the rush defence.

You don't want to add in the variable of an extra slippery ball and a swirling wind if you don't need to IMO
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Post by SecretFly on Tue 12 Mar 2019, 9:59 am

Larmour looks like a well fed kid on his first trip to the beach. If he gets chosen and plays as cavalier as he did against the French, the Welsh will have him for toast, to go with the beer in the cup.

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Post by SecretFly on Tue 12 Mar 2019, 10:04 am

I'd be very wary, if I were Schmidt, of all this pre-game chatter about Wales using defence as their weapon against an Irish side waking up. Methinks the Welsh will want to put on a show and maybe try to do an England on us in the first half hour....ceaseless attack from all angles. I think a little of Ireland's possible bluff this season is the fragility of Their defence. Maybe it's Ireland saying 'okay lads, only way we're going to win this is for a sensational 80mins of ruthless defending.

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Post by maestegmafia on Tue 12 Mar 2019, 10:07 am

SecretFly wrote:I'd be very wary, if I were Schmidt, of all this pre-game chatter about Wales using defence as their weapon against an Irish side waking up.  Methinks the Welsh will want to put on a show and maybe try to do an England on us in the first half hour....ceaseless attack from all angles.  I think a little of Ireland's possible bluff this season is the fragility of Their defence.  Maybe it's Ireland saying 'okay lads, only way we're going to win this is for a sensational 80mins of ruthless defending.

Would you mind asking Mr Schmidt to select Henshaw at 15 and only print fourteen copies of this weeks playbook again?

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Post by SecretFly on Tue 12 Mar 2019, 10:14 am

Our U20 scrmhalf, Casey, was given the task of holding on to the playbook this time, but the little wild basterde ate it. So Ireland will be using an old Delia smith recipe instead. You're laughing now...but some of Delia's recipes are taught in all the best military academies.

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Post by rodders on Tue 12 Mar 2019, 10:16 am

maestegmafia wrote:
rodders wrote:Wales for me are definitely favorites, even at a neutral venue this one is 50:50 game. Ireland are defending champions and ranked higher but Wales have a very good recent record against Ireland and both teams are pretty evenly matched.

When you factor in that Wales are at home, with GS slam to play for plus Ireland's 6 day turn around then Wales are definitely favourites.

That said I'm actually quite confident from an Ireland perspective. I think we have turned a corner against France and have been steadily building after a poor start to the tournament. Wales have been grinding out victories but the England game aside haven't really played that well.

All winning runs have to come to an end, whether Wales can hang on for one more game we will have to see.

I expect a classic here and probably a one score game that will go down to the wire.

Ireland have improved dramatically every game this tournament as Sexton and Murray’s fitness improved.

Larmour looks a far more comfortable cover if Kearney is out.

Yes, Sexton definitely looked a lot better against France. Murray is still not 100%.

Against Wales though we won't have anything like the time on the ball we had against France. Wales line will be up fast and aggressive and Sexton will be in for a tough time. In the air we will be challenged so tactically Wales have areas were they can target and gain an edge.

For us I think the set piece and line out are were we can potentially trouble Wales. It is an interesting clash though because we like to retain the ball and go through phases but Wales like to play without the ball and defend.

Gats is probably the one coach who has got the tactically edge over Schmidt, so Ireland need to have something different up their sleeves.

The pressure is on Wales but I think for Ireland a 2nd place finish and 4 wins would actually be viewed as a reasonably successful tournament as we've managed to use a lot of different players over the course of the tournament and dig ourselves out of a rough patch. It's also an opportunity to show we've adapted from the England game as Wales will target the same areas.

A loss wouldn't be a disaster but a win would be a big box tick for the RWC.

For Wales there is a lot more to loose, they have one hand on the GS but could drop to 3rd with a loss. They have the big game players to deal with the pressure but still the realization that they don't have the cushion of winning the title on points as a consultation could have an effect.
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Post by The Oracle on Tue 12 Mar 2019, 10:24 am

'You lot are favourites'.

'No, YOU lot are favourites'.

'No, No YOU LOT ARE THE FAVOURITES, definitely!'

'No, you're not listening to me.... IT'S YOU LOT WHO ARE THE F******G FAVOURITES, got it?!'

'No, No, No......Yoooooooooooou Lot................'!

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Post by lostinwales on Tue 12 Mar 2019, 10:29 am

The Oracle wrote:
Scarpia wrote:Weather forecast very wet. Will Ireland want the roof open or closed?


I'm gonna suggest half open, to please everyone.  And then we can both take it in turns each half to play at the 'dry end'.  

Would you consider it to be half open or half closed?

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Post by No9 on Tue 12 Mar 2019, 10:29 am

SecretFly wrote:I'll go for that, No9, as that there border tariff stuff goes both ways....or rather, doesn't go both ways ..
or rather, I mean it stops both sides at that 22.  Wink
But somebody still has to win or else England have the Slam shirts for a year.  So we'll stop at the border legally speaking but dig a tunnel to keep the game interesting for the fans.

Ah, but you missed the point that we're playing in Cardiff, so there arent any tarriffs on the Welsh scores only the Irish ones as you'll have to bring them over that border Smile

(By the way.... only joking about Brexit and the hard border... Wink)

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Post by maestegmafia on Tue 12 Mar 2019, 10:31 am

rodders wrote:
maestegmafia wrote:
rodders wrote:Wales for me are definitely favorites, even at a neutral venue this one is 50:50 game. Ireland are defending champions and ranked higher but Wales have a very good recent record against Ireland and both teams are pretty evenly matched.

When you factor in that Wales are at home, with GS slam to play for plus Ireland's 6 day turn around then Wales are definitely favourites.

That said I'm actually quite confident from an Ireland perspective. I think we have turned a corner against France and have been steadily building after a poor start to the tournament. Wales have been grinding out victories but the England game aside haven't really played that well.

All winning runs have to come to an end, whether Wales can hang on for one more game we will have to see.

I expect a classic here and probably a one score game that will go down to the wire.

Ireland have improved dramatically every game this tournament as Sexton and Murray’s fitness improved.

Larmour looks a far more comfortable cover if Kearney is out.

Yes, Sexton definitely looked a lot better against France. Murray is still not 100%.

Against Wales though we won't have anything like the time on the ball we had against France. Wales line will be up fast and aggressive and Sexton will be in for a tough time. In the air we will be challenged so tactically Wales have areas were they can target and gain an edge.

For us I think the set piece and line out are were we can potentially trouble Wales. It is an interesting clash though because we like to retain the ball and go through phases but Wales like to play without the ball and defend.

Gats is probably the one coach who has got the tactically edge over Schmidt, so Ireland need to have something different up their sleeves.

The pressure is on Wales but I think for Ireland a 2nd place finish and 4 wins would actually be viewed as a reasonably successful tournament as we've managed to use a lot of different players over the course of the tournament and dig ourselves out of a rough patch. It's also an opportunity to show we've adapted from the England game as Wales will target the same areas.

A loss wouldn't be a disaster but a win would be a big box tick for the RWC.

For Wales there is a lot more to loose, they have one hand on the GS but could drop to 3rd with a loss. They have the big game players to deal with the pressure but still the realization that they don't have the cushion of winning the title on points as a consultation could have an effect.  

After reading a number of posts on hear you would think wales should go into this happy with third, they are not a respected or fancied team. They are not considered realistic RWC contenders, Ireland and England are. Maybe third place is where they deserve to be. We are constantly reminded how unspectacular wales are after every victory.

I know they have what it takes to win this. But we are definitely constantly being written off on this board and in the press.

Most pundits, outside of wales but there are a few in, still consider England the favourites for the championship win. Despite that outcome being reliant on the result in Cardiff.

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Post by SecretFly on Tue 12 Mar 2019, 10:32 am

Whilst, I agree with you Rodders in saying 2nd now would be like winning the thing in the minds of Irish players and mist fans. We know how much it looked like the wheels were going to pop off the machine a few weeks ago. 2nd is the best we can realistically hope for. For me, third will be fine too - provided we give Wales a real game.
But also...we kinda do have something pretty important to defend so we're not as carefree as we might be. Being 2nd ranked side in the world is still something worth fighting for. I thought we'd lost it weeks ago but only now, against Wales, do we risk losing it. That's motivation enough to try for an Irish full on A game.


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Post by SecretFly on Tue 12 Mar 2019, 10:39 am

Maes, are you really saying most people outside Wales don't rate Wales, think they should be best pleased to come in 3rd and don't really have a hope in hell in Japan either? Is that your impression of what people outside Wales genuinely think when thinking Wales?
Journalists and even social media bluffers will do their thing and try to create narratives, but any rugby follower with even a casual rugby knowledge would know in their heart that Wales are a very good side, difficult to beat (home or away) and to be respected as one of the very top sides, which the rankings confirm

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Post by The Oracle on Tue 12 Mar 2019, 10:44 am

I personally do not think Wales are rated much in England and New Zealand, for example. Just a feeling I get from reading articles in newspapers and sound bites from current/past coaches and players. Plus I sometimes head over to the New Zealand Herald after matches to see their take. Scathing most of the time!
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Post by SecretFly on Tue 12 Mar 2019, 10:47 am

Oracle, people have a way of saying what they want to say when they don't want to admit something else. Maybe it's a subconscious thing, maybe they're not even aware they're doing it. But any rugbyy journalists on this planet that don't genuinely (as distinct from wumming) rate Wales very highly as an International side, well...they're the joke...because eyes tell you all you need to know.


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Post by miaow on Tue 12 Mar 2019, 10:50 am

There's a few points I have about this game, looking back on the most recent fixtures between these two teams, but for now it's worth just having a look at Wales from the 'outside'.

If...IF...they beat Ireland, Wales will have beaten 7 of the top 10 teams in the world, having not played Fiji and NZ in that period (the other top 10 team being Wales). Italy and Tonga sit outside the top 10.

Not the most impressive winning run, admittedly, but not playing NZ aside, that's some record. Definitely helped by home advantage, and don't think Wales will get carried away, but it's a sign Wales' baseline performance levels and general standards/quality is just about as good as it's ever been in Gatland's tenure.

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Post by rodders on Tue 12 Mar 2019, 10:58 am

maestegmafia wrote:
After reading a number of posts on hear you would think wales should go into this happy with third, they are not a respected or fancied team. They are not considered realistic RWC contenders, Ireland and England are. Maybe third place is where they deserve to be. We are constantly reminded how unspectacular wales are after every victory.

I know they have what it takes to win this. But we are definitely constantly being written off on this board and in the press.

Most pundits, outside of wales but there are a few in, still consider England the favourites for the championship win. Despite that outcome being reliant on the result in Cardiff.

No I don't think Wales would be happy with 3rd. Wales have gone under the radar, they've been up to 3rd in the IRB and put together a very impressive run of results, including over SH opposition. I actually fancied them for the slam before the tournament. In terms of the RWC they are certainly up there with England, SA and Ireland as the best challengers to the ABs and wasn't surprised at all to beat England.

From an Ireland perspective I'm a bit relieved we aren't going to Cardiff looking for the Slam ourselves!
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Post by The Oracle on Tue 12 Mar 2019, 11:01 am

SecretFly wrote:Oracle, people have a way of saying what they want to say when they don't want to admit something else.  Maybe it's a subconscious thing, maybe they're not even aware they're doing it.  But any rugbyy journalists on this planet that don't genuinely (as distinct from wumming) rate Wales very highly as an International side, well...they're the joke...because eyes tell you all you need to know.


Why would NZ rate us?! We haven’t troubled them since the 50’s!
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Post by miaow on Tue 12 Mar 2019, 11:05 am

rodders wrote:

It is an interesting clash though because we like to retain the ball and go through phases but Wales like to play without the ball and defend

Think this gets overstated a bit. Yes, true to a point, Wales trust their defence but they've also become a team that dominates games not through defending and then quickly counter attacking, but by defending and then returning the favour - going back up the other end, squeezing the life out of the team through mid-tempo phases, and hoping mistakes/gaps appear. With Adams and Liam Williams in the team, they've been ruthless at converting those chances into points - France, Scotland springs to mind, but I'm sure there have been more. The autumn, too. No doubt they 'defended' with the ball against England, for instance, rather than through without, as they did v Scotland. But not sure that's the point you were making - you were talking about possession. And if I'm correct, I think Wales dominated possession against Italy (certainly first half), France (2nd half), and England.

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Post by miaow on Tue 12 Mar 2019, 11:12 am

The Oracle wrote:
SecretFly wrote:Oracle, people have a way of saying what they want to say when they don't want to admit something else.  Maybe it's a subconscious thing, maybe they're not even aware they're doing it.  But any rugbyy journalists on this planet that don't genuinely (as distinct from wumming) rate Wales very highly as an International side, well...they're the joke...because eyes tell you all you need to know.


Why would NZ rate us?! We haven’t troubled them since the 50’s!

Think the 70s players would have something to say about that...likewise some of the 2017 Lions players.

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Post by maestegmafia on Tue 12 Mar 2019, 11:15 am

miaow wrote:
rodders wrote:

It is an interesting clash though because we like to retain the ball and go through phases but Wales like to play without the ball and defend

Think this gets overstated a bit. Yes, true to a point, Wales trust their defence but they've also become a team that dominates games not through defending and then quickly counter attacking, but by defending and then returning the favour - going back up the other end, squeezing the life out of the team through mid-tempo phases, and hoping mistakes/gaps appear. With Adams and Liam Williams in the team, they've been ruthless at converting those chances into points - France, Scotland springs to mind, but I'm sure there have been more. The autumn, too. No doubt they 'defended' with the ball against England, for instance, rather than through without, as they did v Scotland. But not sure that's the point you were making - you were talking about possession. And if I'm correct, I think Wales dominated possession against Italy (certainly first half), France (2nd half), and England.

When wales scored their two tries against England they were very Irish gamelan tries, thirty plus phases gaps open Wales exploit poor defending.

Wales seem to have a few different styles. The confident defence structure is their backbone but even that alternates during games.

To be fair our best GS season we only conceded one single try, this year we’ve conceded far more.

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Post by SecretFly on Tue 12 Mar 2019, 11:16 am

Oracle, NZ don't rate us and we've beaten them twice. Just look at Taylorman here, he said Ireland are so full of their own importance that they didn't see England coming and don't now see Wales in front of them. It's a laugh, a bit of fun.
Like I say, people say things to keep up their own sense of resolve. It's easier to say everyone else is crap when you know your heart doesn't believe you. NZ jounalists are propagandists for the movement that is AllBlacks rugby. I don't have a problem with that. They're all probably laughing at the crap we've been offering up as rugby this 6N but I don't care. I see a team sleepwalking but still making games look too easy at times with bonus point victories. Any side doung that ain't bad. I say to Welsh fans close the ears.... pay no heed.

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Post by maestegmafia on Tue 12 Mar 2019, 11:23 am

SecretFly wrote:Oracle, NZ don't rate us and we've beaten them twice.  Just look at Taylorman here, he said Ireland are so full of their own importance that they didn't see England coming and don't now see Wales in front of them.  It's a laugh, a bit of fun.  
Like I say, people say things to keep up their own sense of resolve.  It's easier to say everyone else is crap when you know your heart doesn't believe you.  NZ jounalists are propagandists for the movement that is AllBlacks rugby.  I don't have a problem with that.  They're all probably laughing at the crap we've been offering up as rugby this 6N but I don't care.  I see a team sleepwalking but still making games look too easy at times with bonus point victories.  Any side doung that ain't bad. I say to Welsh fans close the ears.... pay no heed.

The media in the UK as well as down South are very closed to the idea that new nation could make the final let alone win it.

Understandably we will presume France, SA and the Ozzies will have figured themselves out before the tournament and start showing excellent form.

Despite Wales and Ireland consistently being in the top 5 of the WR rankings for most of the last year they both still fly under the radar as perspective victors in most peoples opinions.

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Post by miaow on Tue 12 Mar 2019, 11:29 am

maestegmafia wrote:
miaow wrote:
rodders wrote:

It is an interesting clash though because we like to retain the ball and go through phases but Wales like to play without the ball and defend

Think this gets overstated a bit. Yes, true to a point, Wales trust their defence but they've also become a team that dominates games not through defending and then quickly counter attacking, but by defending and then returning the favour - going back up the other end, squeezing the life out of the team through mid-tempo phases, and hoping mistakes/gaps appear. With Adams and Liam Williams in the team, they've been ruthless at converting those chances into points - France, Scotland springs to mind, but I'm sure there have been more. The autumn, too. No doubt they 'defended' with the ball against England, for instance, rather than through without, as they did v Scotland. But not sure that's the point you were making - you were talking about possession. And if I'm correct, I think Wales dominated possession against Italy (certainly first half), France (2nd half), and England.

When wales scored their two tries against England they were very Irish gamelan tries, thirty plus phases gaps open Wales exploit poor defending.

Wales seem to have a few different styles.
The confident defence structure is their backbone but even that alternates during games.

To be fair our best GS season we only conceded one single try, this year we’ve conceded far more.

Again, it's why I think many Welsh fans are really excited not just about this game, but the World Cup. The Argentina tour showed Wales are/can/have been working on some really intelligent, offloading and running rugby and scored a few really good tries, as well as not quite finishing off a number of other good moves as well.

It was 2 tries in 2008, but yes, point is still true. Game's changed massively since 08 in both attack and defence. Wales have conceded 6 tries and ored only 9, yet have won 4/4. A sign of control in both attack and defence, rather than relying on defence, in my opinion.

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Post by maestegmafia on Tue 12 Mar 2019, 11:43 am

I agree there accuracy is better. Probably converting a decent percentage of line breaks compared to what we were a few seasons ago.

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Post by SecretFly on Tue 12 Mar 2019, 11:52 am

Okay...so I know, I know, I know that games aren't won on number of tries alone. You have to have more branches to rely on and kicking for the posts can be influential in getting over the line. For that you need a hard game to get the penalties and then a reliable kicker (stand up Murray for Ireland as I don't think Sexton is reliable enough there for the twos and the threes.)
But I was just looking at how things panned out trywise. I think everyone will admit that even though Wales say they haven't peaked, they have been much more cohesive, determined, at the right intensity levels than Ireland have been. Last game was maybe first game Ireland upped a gear for or were allowed up a gear for.
Anyway, even so:
Wales scored two tries against England - so did Ireland.
Wales scored three tries against France - Ireland four.
Wales scored two tries against Scotland - Ireland three.
Wales scored two tries against Italy - Ireland four.

Now Wales have the upper hand when considering the number of tries let in. We've let nine past us to Wales' six.
Wales have the best defence when looking at points against them and tries they've let in. But Ireland are winning games scoring tries even when their more familiar urgency and physicality hasn't always been with them.
Wales from memory have had harder games than Ireland with only that England game looking like the one that rattled us but even then, was it genuinely a hard game? For a lot of the game we didn't even put up a fight and the style of game England were playing was pacey evasion stuff mostly, making things still not too difficult for Ireland in terms of energy put-in.
But there's that thing that I keep fixating on as regards Ireland. So little energy used and still theoretically in the race for the title going into the final week.
We are either genuinely way way off the pace that will be necessary come WC...or this has been a remarkably well controlled and planned venture for Schmidt and his fellow coaches with that long term goal fully guiding the preps

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Post by munkian on Tue 12 Mar 2019, 11:52 am

SecretFly wrote:Maes, are you really saying most people outside Wales don't rate Wales, think they should be best pleased to come in 3rd and don't really have a hope in hell in Japan either?  Is that your impression of what people outside Wales genuinely think when thinking Wales?
Journalists and even social media bluffers will do their thing and try to create narratives, but any rugby follower with even a casual rugby knowledge would know in their heart that Wales are a very good side, difficult to beat (home or away) and to be respected as one of the very top sides, which the rankings confirm

I've already seen the words 'non vintage grand slam' bandied about.

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Post by SecretFly on Tue 12 Mar 2019, 12:00 pm

If it's a Slam, it's a Slam, munkian. I don't think I've ever witnessed a year when the Slam winner isn't reminded of how it could'a been different if another side got a little luck here or there... if that injury to an influential player didn't happen at the wrong time...if the ref wasn't blind, if the previous year wasn't a Lions year...........
Last year we kept being reminded that all it was was a kick that worked from Johnny. So be it, that's all it was. We still enjoyed the Slam and it's still in the record books, never to be removed.......well, until PRL take over International rugby, that is Wink

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Post by LondonTiger on Tue 12 Mar 2019, 12:02 pm

munkian wrote:
SecretFly wrote:Maes, are you really saying most people outside Wales don't rate Wales, think they should be best pleased to come in 3rd and don't really have a hope in hell in Japan either?  Is that your impression of what people outside Wales genuinely think when thinking Wales?
Journalists and even social media bluffers will do their thing and try to create narratives, but any rugby follower with even a casual rugby knowledge would know in their heart that Wales are a very good side, difficult to beat (home or away) and to be respected as one of the very top sides, which the rankings confirm

I've already seen the words 'non vintage grand slam' bandied about.

 It never should be, but sadly people do. Cannot remember anyone bringing it up last season (though sure someone did) but plenty were quick to apply that in 2016.

Thing is Grand Slams (and World Cup wins) are things you will remember and cherish in a way that mere Title Wins will never do. So sod the denigraters and should you win on Saturday enjoy it to the full.

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Post by rodders on Tue 12 Mar 2019, 12:11 pm

miaow wrote:
rodders wrote:

It is an interesting clash though because we like to retain the ball and go through phases but Wales like to play without the ball and defend

Think this gets overstated a bit. Yes, true to a point, Wales trust their defence but they've also become a team that dominates games not through defending and then quickly counter attacking, but by defending and then returning the favour - going back up the other end, squeezing the life out of the team through mid-tempo phases, and hoping mistakes/gaps appear. With Adams and Liam Williams in the team, they've been ruthless at converting those chances into points - France, Scotland springs to mind, but I'm sure there have been more. The autumn, too. No doubt they 'defended' with the ball against England, for instance, rather than through without, as they did v Scotland. But not sure that's the point you were making - you were talking about possession. And if I'm correct, I think Wales dominated possession against Italy (certainly first half), France (2nd half), and England.

No I agree, I didn't mean that was all Wales like to do only, emphasizing that Wales aren't likely to be too concerned if they find themselves defending for long stints of the game. They are extremely fit as well, so again Ireland can't be banking on grinding Wales down and hope they crack late in the game the way may opponent do.
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Post by robbo277 on Tue 12 Mar 2019, 12:36 pm

maestegmafia wrote:
rodders wrote:
maestegmafia wrote:
rodders wrote:Wales for me are definitely favorites, even at a neutral venue this one is 50:50 game. Ireland are defending champions and ranked higher but Wales have a very good recent record against Ireland and both teams are pretty evenly matched.

When you factor in that Wales are at home, with GS slam to play for plus Ireland's 6 day turn around then Wales are definitely favourites.

That said I'm actually quite confident from an Ireland perspective. I think we have turned a corner against France and have been steadily building after a poor start to the tournament. Wales have been grinding out victories but the England game aside haven't really played that well.

All winning runs have to come to an end, whether Wales can hang on for one more game we will have to see.

I expect a classic here and probably a one score game that will go down to the wire.

Ireland have improved dramatically every game this tournament as Sexton and Murray’s fitness improved.

Larmour looks a far more comfortable cover if Kearney is out.

Yes, Sexton definitely looked a lot better against France. Murray is still not 100%.

Against Wales though we won't have anything like the time on the ball we had against France. Wales line will be up fast and aggressive and Sexton will be in for a tough time. In the air we will be challenged so tactically Wales have areas were they can target and gain an edge.

For us I think the set piece and line out are were we can potentially trouble Wales. It is an interesting clash though because we like to retain the ball and go through phases but Wales like to play without the ball and defend.

Gats is probably the one coach who has got the tactically edge over Schmidt, so Ireland need to have something different up their sleeves.

The pressure is on Wales but I think for Ireland a 2nd place finish and 4 wins would actually be viewed as a reasonably successful tournament as we've managed to use a lot of different players over the course of the tournament and dig ourselves out of a rough patch. It's also an opportunity to show we've adapted from the England game as Wales will target the same areas.

A loss wouldn't be a disaster but a win would be a big box tick for the RWC.

For Wales there is a lot more to loose, they have one hand on the GS but could drop to 3rd with a loss. They have the big game players to deal with the pressure but still the realization that they don't have the cushion of winning the title on points as a consultation could have an effect.  

After reading a number of posts on hear you would think wales should go into this happy with third, they are not a respected or fancied team. They are not considered realistic RWC contenders, Ireland and England are. Maybe third place is where they deserve to be. We are constantly reminded how unspectacular wales are after every victory.

I know they have what it takes to win this. But we are definitely constantly being written off on this board and in the press.

Most pundits, outside of wales but there are a few in, still consider England the favourites for the championship win. Despite that outcome being reliant on the result in Cardiff.

I had England as favourites despite the Wales loss, because Wales had two tough games to win and England had two easier games to win. Both had to play Scotland, but England would have home advantage whereas Wales didn't. Then in the other game, Wales had Ireland at home and England had Italy at home - which is as close to a banker as it gets.

After Wales have overcome the first hurdle, I think most people on here have given Wales the tag of favourites for the title and the Grand Slam. It's marginal, but the number being bandied about on the other thread is about 55% chance of Wales winning. I'd be interested to know which pundits have England as favourites, but considering there are some out there in rugby spheres who are still getting their heads around the Grand Slam bonus points, I wouldn't be careful which opinions to take too seriously.

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Post by munkian on Tue 12 Mar 2019, 12:54 pm

LondonTiger wrote:
munkian wrote:
SecretFly wrote:Maes, are you really saying most people outside Wales don't rate Wales, think they should be best pleased to come in 3rd and don't really have a hope in hell in Japan either?  Is that your impression of what people outside Wales genuinely think when thinking Wales?
Journalists and even social media bluffers will do their thing and try to create narratives, but any rugby follower with even a casual rugby knowledge would know in their heart that Wales are a very good side, difficult to beat (home or away) and to be respected as one of the very top sides, which the rankings confirm

I've already seen the words 'non vintage grand slam' bandied about.

 It never should be, but sadly people do. Cannot remember anyone bringing it up last season (though sure someone did) but plenty were quick to apply that in 2016.

Thing is Grand Slams (and World Cup wins) are things you will remember and cherish in a way that mere Title Wins will never do. So sod the denigraters and should you win on Saturday enjoy it to the full.

I think i saw it on the Torygraph - Ireland v England was the most exciting thing since mint shower gel - now its 'not a compelling tournament' Rolling Eyes

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Post by BamBam on Tue 12 Mar 2019, 1:17 pm

Given the English women and the Irish U20s are also likely to win grand slams this weekend, is a grand slam really that big of an achievement?

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Post by No 7&1/2 on Tue 12 Mar 2019, 1:18 pm

The 6ns grand slam is what it is. If you win it, you win it. No more no less.

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Post by SecretFly on Tue 12 Mar 2019, 1:24 pm

I think coming in 3rd is the greatest achievement as it signifies that you've suffered pain but you've endured to find an inner sanctum of self growth and transformic affirmation on a conscious platform of identity-positivity psychological radience of a higher level serenity.

No? Well I did try.......

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Post by LondonTiger on Tue 12 Mar 2019, 1:28 pm

BamBam wrote:Given the English women and the Irish U20s are also likely to win grand slams this weekend, is a grand slam really that big of an achievement?
warning

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Post by SecretFly on Tue 12 Mar 2019, 1:31 pm

When you think about it, what did the Grand Slam ever do for us?

Don't even try irrigation. I know it helped out on irrigation....

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Post by LondonTiger on Tue 12 Mar 2019, 1:37 pm

rodders wrote:
maestegmafia wrote:
After reading a number of posts on hear you would think wales should go into this happy with third, they are not a respected or fancied team. They are not considered realistic RWC contenders, Ireland and England are. Maybe third place is where they deserve to be. We are constantly reminded how unspectacular wales are after every victory.

I know they have what it takes to win this. But we are definitely constantly being written off on this board and in the press.

Most pundits, outside of wales but there are a few in, still consider England the favourites for the championship win. Despite that outcome being reliant on the result in Cardiff.

I think you may be misunderstanding what people were saying on here a tad. People have said that if Wales lose then they will probably finish 3rd. Calling this a 50/50 game I am, other than the poster (Run) who put Ireland as undoubted favourites, the most bullish for England's chances. Yet that is not disrespecting Wales or making them unfancied it is giving them a 50/50 shot and making them favourites for the title.

We all know Wales have what it takes, and no-one is writing them off.

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Post by BamBam on Tue 12 Mar 2019, 1:37 pm

LondonTiger wrote:
BamBam wrote:Given the English women and the Irish U20s are also likely to win grand slams this weekend, is a grand slam really that big of an achievement?
warning
angel

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Post by robbo277 on Tue 12 Mar 2019, 1:46 pm

LondonTiger wrote:
munkian wrote:
SecretFly wrote:Maes, are you really saying most people outside Wales don't rate Wales, think they should be best pleased to come in 3rd and don't really have a hope in hell in Japan either?  Is that your impression of what people outside Wales genuinely think when thinking Wales?
Journalists and even social media bluffers will do their thing and try to create narratives, but any rugby follower with even a casual rugby knowledge would know in their heart that Wales are a very good side, difficult to beat (home or away) and to be respected as one of the very top sides, which the rankings confirm

I've already seen the words 'non vintage grand slam' bandied about.

 It never should be, but sadly people do. Cannot remember anyone bringing it up last season (though sure someone did) but plenty were quick to apply that in 2016.

Thing is Grand Slams (and World Cup wins) are things you will remember and cherish in a way that mere Title Wins will never do. So sod the denigraters and should you win on Saturday enjoy it to the full.

A lot of parallels between England in 2016 and Wales in 2019 if Wales are to complete the Slam. England had Wales and Ireland at home in 2016, Wales had Ireland and England at home in 2019 - this definitely helps in the present day. You get fewer big wins with the 3 blue teams away from home, where they are currently much stronger, but you don't need big wins to get a Slam. If Wales beat Ireland 21-10 on the final day (the score England managed in 2016), then 2019 Wales and 2016 England would have very similar points for, points against, tries for and tries against, with England having slightly more points and tries scored as a result of bundling an extra couple of tries against Italy in 2016, compared to what Wales managed this year.

England are 101-22 against 2 Blue teams at home so far this tournament. Wales went 86-24 against the same 2 Blue teams in 2016 and finished with more tries and a better points difference than England in 2016 - as England are likely to do compared to Wales this year, regardless of Week 5 scores. But Wales couldn't beat England at Twickenham in 2016 and England couldn't beat Wales in Cardiff in 2019.

Would 2016 England or 2019 Wales be able to win a Slam if you reversed their fixture list? I don't think either would be likely to, which might be what people are scratching at with these comments, although they're slightly wide of the mark talking about 'non vintage Slams'.

A Grand Slam is clearly defined and all Slams are equal by meeting the criteria. Does how many points you beat Italy by mean you should enjoy or celebrate the Slam any less? Does the pre-determined fixture list mean the Slam means any less or is in anyway a lesser achievement? Definitely not.

This post might be a week premature, with Ireland not likely to roll over and make it easy for Wales, but if Wales do overcome them then it will be just as good a Slam as any other.

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Post by LondonTiger on Tue 12 Mar 2019, 1:49 pm

robbo277 wrote:




This post might be a week premature, with Ireland not likely to roll over and make it easy for Wales, but if Wales do overcome them then it will be just as good a Slam as any other.

Agree 100%

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Post by munkian on Tue 12 Mar 2019, 1:50 pm

LondonTiger wrote:
robbo277 wrote:




This post might be a week premature, with Ireland not likely to roll over and make it easy for Wales, but if Wales do overcome them then it will be just as good a Slam as any other.

Agree 100%

Yup, well put.
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Post by Collapse2005 on Tue 12 Mar 2019, 2:17 pm

There is no doubt that Ireland will want to win this one. Schmidt has never won v Wales in Cardiff, albeit Wales guardian angel wont be refereeing this time.

Wales will be favorites, they are always a good side and at home very tough in the 6 nations especially when they are vying for a slam. Should be a cracker.

That said I don't think 3rd would be a bad result for Ireland in this years six nations, it would be a good enough platform to move into the RWC from.

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Post by The Oracle on Tue 12 Mar 2019, 2:40 pm

It’s a shame this is the middle game and not the last. Less time for the Taffs to get hammered and increase the atmosphere! They’ll be sitting on their hands sedately and whispering in hushed tones. Advantage Ireland!
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Post by munkian on Tue 12 Mar 2019, 2:53 pm

The Oracle wrote:It’s a shame this is the middle game and not the last. Less time for the Taffs to get hammered and increase the atmosphere! They’ll be sitting on their hands sedately and whispering in hushed tones. Advantage Ireland!

Devalued win Sad
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Post by LondonTiger on Tue 12 Mar 2019, 3:26 pm

Not sure if this was posted:


Ireland squad


Backs: Bundee Aki, Joey Carbery, Jack Carty, Andrew Conway, John Cooney, Keith Earls, Chris Farrell, Tom Farrell, Rob Kearney, Jordan Larmour, Kieran Marmion, Conor Murray, Garry Ringrose, Jonathan Sexton, Jacob Stockdale.

Forwards: Rory Best (capt), Tadhg Beirne, Jack Conan, Ultan Dillane, Tadhg Furlong, Cian Healy, Iain Henderson, Rob Herring, Dave Kilcoyne, Jack McGrath, Jordi Murphy, Sean O'Brien, Peter O'Mahony, Andrew Porter, Quinn Roux, Rhys Ruddock, James Ryan, John Ryan, Niall Scannell, CJ Stander, Dan Leavy.

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