About v2Another Drive4show 'Anything goes' thread
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Another Drive4show 'Anything goes' thread
by beninho Sun 13 Feb 2022, 6:31 pm
First topic message reminder :
It does seem that this cat video is pretty old. But, also oeople seem more upset about it then say, Chelsea having a player who killed someone when he was drink driving.
We are a nation of animal lovers, my mum was all in on Romanian rescue dogs, not so keen on Romanian people.
,
It does seem that this cat video is pretty old. But, also oeople seem more upset about it then say, Chelsea having a player who killed someone when he was drink driving.
We are a nation of animal lovers, my mum was all in on Romanian rescue dogs, not so keen on Romanian people.
,
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Re: Another Drive4show 'Anything goes' thread
by JAS Mon 03 Oct 2022, 10:58 am
beninho wrote:Trussy is awful. Kwasi was celebrating with the bankers afterwards, but someone else has defended it by also saying property developers were there. Thats fine, everyone loves them!
Boris was bad, but he was wedded to an ideological view. He was probably to easily swayed and a bit eager to please.
Truss is a bit tory Corbyn. They need ger gone or she kills the party.
The anti Tory in me says Truss MUST stay
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Re: Another Drive4show 'Anything goes' thread
by navyblueshorts Mon 03 Oct 2022, 11:44 am
He can try, but I'm afraid that him 'pushing' such a button won't do anything unless the military high command act on it. Not sure Gerasimov et al would go through with it. Interesting take on Putin's options here, if you have access.BlueCoverman wrote:The rant today removed all remaining doubt for me that Putin would have little hesitation in pushing the nuclear button. I fear for what happens next.
Not to say he can't have his 'Downfall' moment, but the fact of the matter is that NATO etc aren't remotely interested in actually being on Russian soil.
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Re: Another Drive4show 'Anything goes' thread
by McLaren Mon 03 Oct 2022, 11:52 am
navyblueshorts wrote:He can try, but I'm afraid that him 'pushing' such a button won't do anything unless the military high command act on it. Not sure Gerasimov et al would go through with it. Interesting take on Putin's options here, if you have access.BlueCoverman wrote:The rant today removed all remaining doubt for me that Putin would have little hesitation in pushing the nuclear button. I fear for what happens next.
Not to say he can't have his 'Downfall' moment, but the fact of the matter is that NATO etc aren't remotely interested in actually being on Russian soil.
I don't subscribe so can't read that article. But I hope Putin is only characterized in that article based on court room passable evidence. :whistle:
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Re: Another Drive4show 'Anything goes' thread
by Pal Joey Mon 03 Oct 2022, 12:38 pm
Hopefully there's a 'Stanislav Petrov' on duty on the day that the order comes through from Putin.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/1983_Soviet_nuclear_false_alarm_incident
What I don't get is that if such a terrible situation was to occur surely that would render that part of the world unsuitable for any sort of agriculture and industry for some while to come.
Sort of defeats the purpose doesn't it... or is there a way of containing the contamination from smaller tactical nuclear explosions?
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/1983_Soviet_nuclear_false_alarm_incident
What I don't get is that if such a terrible situation was to occur surely that would render that part of the world unsuitable for any sort of agriculture and industry for some while to come.
Sort of defeats the purpose doesn't it... or is there a way of containing the contamination from smaller tactical nuclear explosions?
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Re: Another Drive4show 'Anything goes' thread
by JAS Mon 03 Oct 2022, 1:21 pm
Pal Joey wrote:Hopefully there's a 'Stanislav Petrov' on duty on the day that the order comes through from Putin.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/1983_Soviet_nuclear_false_alarm_incident
What I don't get is that if such a terrible situation was to occur surely that would render that part of the world unsuitable for any sort of agriculture and industry for some while to come.
Sort of defeats the purpose doesn't it... or is there a way of containing the contamination from smaller tactical nuclear explosions?
I don’t think there’s much room such logical thought in an evil psychopaths mind.
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Re: Another Drive4show 'Anything goes' thread
by navyblueshorts Mon 03 Oct 2022, 2:17 pm
It's an opinion piece, and now my sides have stopped shaking with laughter, don't say I never do anything for you...McLaren wrote:navyblueshorts wrote:He can try, but I'm afraid that him 'pushing' such a button won't do anything unless the military high command act on it. Not sure Gerasimov et al would go through with it. Interesting take on Putin's options here, if you have access.BlueCoverman wrote:The rant today removed all remaining doubt for me that Putin would have little hesitation in pushing the nuclear button. I fear for what happens next.
Not to say he can't have his 'Downfall' moment, but the fact of the matter is that NATO etc aren't remotely interested in actually being on Russian soil.
I don't subscribe so can't read that article. But I hope Putin is only characterized in that article based on court room passable evidence.
- Article:
- Back during the Cold War there was always a question facing the nations of Nato, as they confronted enormous Soviet tank armies in Europe.
In the event of a conventional war going badly, at what point do we go nuclear?
The answer might have been: not until Soviet troops entered France. This kind of problem is why nukes didn't make conventional forces obsolete.
Today it is Vladimir Putin who has a conventional war which is going badly. He still holds large areas of Ukrainian territory, but his troops are falling back.
Putin may be able to mobilise at least some of the huge reserves of manpower which are theoretically available with a full Russian call-up, though this appears to be going extremely badly so far. Even if a useful mobilisation can be conducted without overwhelming domestic opposition, Russia will struggle to equip its unwilling cannon-fodder and supply them for a long-term war.
The new conscripts will be facing determined Ukrainians who are fighting to save their people from murder, r***, torture and mass disappearance into the gulags. Ukrainian troops have already stopped Russia’s best, the “kontraktniki” professional soldiers who began the invasion, literally dead in their tracks.
Worse still, as long as some Western nations remain resolute, the Ukrainians will be well armed and supplied from effectively inexhaustible resources of money and materiel. The West in general does not maintain huge stockpiles of munitions and there may well be hiccups in the supply chains. Nonetheless the US in particular has shown during recent wars – for instance in Syria when shortages of surgical smart weapons occurred – that it can crank up new production very quickly when it wants to.
So Putin is under pressure. But he is not in the situation that Nato might have been in a hot 1980s war, reeling back towards France. Putin is not back from his start line, but still well forward of it.
Even Russians should be able to see that seizing territory and then going nuclear if it’s taken back is not something the rest of the world can possibly accept. And bogus gunpoint referendums clearly don't make Ukrainians into Russians. Russians know this too, as they didn't get a vote on whether they would like to be Russian, or on anything else.
So what happens if the Ukrainians keep retaking territory?
Let’s think about a Russian nuclear option. If there was a practical objective – as opposed to just letting off a nuke somewhere to frighten European politicians – the goal would probably be to destroy or cripple the Ukrainian fighting forces rather than just blowing up cities. So far the Russians have tried, at least somewhat, to mostly hit military targets. Nuking cities would put them clearly, horrifyingly in the wrong while at the same time doing relatively little damage to Ukraine’s ability to wage war.
So, problem number one. Vladimir's nuclear briefcase, the “Cheget,” is not directly hooked up to any nukes. Its function is to confirm that attack orders have been issued by the President.
The President’s Cheget-authenticated orders pass to the Russian General Staff, the high command of the Russian armed forces, who then direct action by nuclear weapon units. Putin needs agreement from the General Staff to carry out any nuclear strike.
The Chief of the General Staff, Army-General Valery Gerasimov, is a soldier by background rather than a former KGB operative like Putin. Gerasimov has been in post for 10 years and probably has a solid power base. He may have his own view of the Ukraine war.
One might surmise this because back in 2000, during the Second Chechen War, Gerasimov personally arrested a rogue Russian colonel named Yury Budanov. Budanov had murdered and probably raped a teenaged Chechen girl.
The arrest of Budanov, amid his own troops, was apparently tense. Some reports have it that the murderous colonel was later charged with threatening a superior officer with a weapon, as well as his other crimes. Others suggest that at least one shot was fired and Budanov was injured when taken into custody.
Budanov’s partisans suggested that his arrest was a matter of turf disputes among the almost universally corrupt Russian commanders in Chechnya, but more credible observers disagree. The famous and astonishingly brave Russian journalist Anna Politkovskaya, an outspoken critic of Putin and Russia’s war in Chechnya, stated that Gerasimov had “preserved his honour as an officer” during the Chechen war – not something that could be said of many.
It would be interesting to know what Gerasimov privately thinks about the reports out of Bucha and elsewhere.
In this context it’s also worth noting that Putin issued a public executive order in 2020. The document presents four scenarios in which Russia might use nuclear weapons. These are: use of nuclear weapons or WMDs against Russia or its allies; launch of ballistic missiles against Russia or its allies; any attack which could undermine Russian ability to make a nuclear strike; or conventional attacks on Russia “when the very existence of the state is in jeopardy”.
That last one is where the debate lies. Previous Russian doctrines have put it slightly differently, allowing for nuclear weapons use “in response to large-scale aggression utilizing conventional weapons in situations critical to the national security of the Russian Federation”.
This is where the so-called “escalate to de-escalate” idea comes from, the suggestion that Russia – finding herself under conventional attack, and losing – could go nuclear, much as Nato probably would have done at some point before being overrun in the 1980s.
The question Putin would ask before popping open the Cheget briefcase would be: will Gerasimov and the General Staff agree with me that the situation in Ukraine is indeed “critical to the national security of the Russian Federation” or that “the very existence of the state is in jeopardy”?
Obviously, people who contradict Vladimir Putin in today’s Russia usually suffer gruesome fates. Anna Politkovskaya was murdered in 2006, and other Putin critics have recently fallen from high windows.
But Gerasimov and the General Staff are not ordinary Russians. Even a dictator like Putin has to think carefully before moving against the military high command. There are already coup rumours swirling in Moscow, and once you have defenestrated a certain number of generals the others may decide to finish you while they still can.
Putin needs to be sure that his orders will be obeyed before he issues them, or he may find his own life in danger.
But let's say Gerasimov and the high command agree to a limited, tactical nuclear campaign in Ukraine, probably focused on trying to destroy the Ukrainian combat forces. Curtains for the Ukrainians?
Maybe not so much. A nuclear bomb is just a very powerful bomb, in many respects. Used against a built-up area, with unprepared people packed closely together among fragile flammable buildings, it does of course cause a horrific death toll. The bombs which hit Hiroshima and Nagasaki were only of 15 and 20-kiloton force – they would certainly be seen as tactical rather than strategic weapons today – but the two cities were gutted and deaths were in five figures.
Hiroshima and Nagasaki should be kept in context, however. A single pass by conventional US bombers over Tokyo, Operation Meetinghouse, killed more people and destroyed more urban areas than both the 1945 nukes combined.
Kiloton-range tactical weapons used against dispersed troops in the field, probably dug in or otherwise protected, are likely to be a very different story. Normal conventional artillery, used on the scale it is being used in Ukraine, also delivers kilotons of ordinary munitions every week. Those big guns could throw kilotons every day if the ammunition was there: and this is not even to account for all the other kinds of weaponry being used.
It’s a war of kilotons already, and this has failed to disable either army.
There’s more. Normal artillery or other conventional bombardment does not suffer from concentrating all its kilotons in just one spot as a nuke does. To deliver total destruction across the entire area occupied by – say – a dispersed Ukrainian armoured division would require not just one tactical nuke but many.
The US government has estimated that Russia may have from 1,000 to 2,000 tactical nuclear warheads. Considering other Russian military equipment, it’s likely that a lot of these are unserviceable. So this would not be the sort of operation that could be kept up forever: especially given reported shortages of suitable delivery systems to carry the warheads.
Here it’s important to remember that tactical nukes are intended to be used where friendly forces will be present, to win a battle: not to render the battlefield uninhabitable and impassable. If the nukes are set to burst well above the ground, which will help to maximise the destruction they cause on the day, radiation danger in the area afterwards will not be serious.
Yes, really. Hiroshima and Nagasaki, hit by multi-kiloton air bursts, are thriving cities today. They have been inhabited without interruption since they were nuked. Average lifespan among residents who survived the strikes and their immediate aftermath was reduced by only a matter of months.
Putin could set his nukes for ground burst, which would indeed throw large amounts of radioactive material into the sky and produce a fallout plume downwind. This would reduce the destructive footprint of the weapons, however, and make it much more difficult to occupy and conquer the country. Winds can change, too, possibly scattering fallout all over Russia or Belarus. It wouldn’t make a lot of sense.
So Russian use of tactical nukes would change the military picture, but not by nearly as much as one might think. If the Ukrainian army – perhaps advised by US intelligence – managed to be in the right positions and postures it would be hard to inflict a disabling result on it, even with quite profligate use of tactical nukes.
Against this potentially quite unimpressive military payoff, there is the certainty of a US response. The Biden administration, without offering details, has said that use of nukes would mean “catastrophic consequences” for Russia.
The US has many options here. It could ramp up supplies, financing and weapons to the Ukrainians. There are economic and diplomatic cards yet to play.
But the options most definitely include conventional force action to negate any Russian nuclear advantage. Call it de-escalation without escalation.
Some have speculated that there could be conventional strikes deep inside pre-war Russia, but that might play into Putin’s hands. It would give credence to the idea that Russia is in peril.
The US and its allies might instead restrict themselves to the present theatre of conflict.
To start with there is the US Joint Air-to-Surface Standoff Missile (JASSM), a stealthed cruise missile which can be launched from US or Polish jets.
The longer-ranging JASSM variants could hit targets in occupied Ukraine and nearby parts of Russia without the launching planes leaving NATO airspace. Backed by US intelligence and electronic-warfare capability, JASSM and other weapons allow the US to destroy targets across the theatre pretty much unanswerably.
One obvious target would be the two bridges from the Crimean peninsula to Russia, built by the Russians after they seized Crimea eight years ago. These bridges are the main supply line and escape route for Russian troops on the peninsula. The Ukrainians have been trying to destroy them for some time.
The US could also hit other chokepoints, weapon systems, supply dumps and suchlike key military targets – all without sending one airman over Ukraine. This on its own, done well, could hamstring Russia’s invasion army.
The US and its allies also possess large numbers of shorter-ranged standoff air weapons and other specialist missiles and technology, designed for what’s called Suppression (or Destruction) of Enemy Air Defences: SEAD or DEAD. This was carried out very effectively during the Iraq invasion and the allied air campaign over Libya. Surface-to-air missiles (SAMs) and air defence radars on the ground were remorselessly hunted and destroyed from afar, without ever really having a chance.
Once SEAD/DEAD was achieved across Iraq and Libya, the US and allied air forces could operate with almost complete freedom provided they stayed above say 10,000 feet or a little more: the maximum ceiling of portable, shoulder-fired SAMs. This dominance of the skies meant that the US-led allies in both wars could seek out and destroy Saddam Hussein’s and Muammar Gaddafi’s heavy ground forces – their tanks, armoured vehicles and artillery – unanswerably, from above.
Russia’s air defences and forces ought to be a bit more serious than those of Saddam and Gaddafi, but it turns out they aren’t really. Nobody any longer thinks that Russia is a “near peer” adversary, able to give the US and its friends a serious conventional airspace fight.
The feebleness of Russian airpower has been exposed by the total failure of the Russian air force to achieve anything like SEAD/DEAD against the Ukrainians, who ought to have been crushingly overmatched. This failure was a surprise to most military analysts, including many senior Western officers. It is a fact nonetheless.
Rather than attempting to dominate and operate in the Ukrainian skies, it appears that Russia simply threatens Ukraine’s airspace from afar with its long-ranging heavy SAMs, the S-300 and S-400. Russian pilots fear being shot down by untouched Ukrainian SAM batteries – or perhaps by their own – forcing them to fly very low just as their Ukrainian opponents do.
Despite having hundreds of apparently powerful combat planes deployed to the region, Russia sends only handfuls of them at a time over Ukraine. Western analysts are coming to believe that this is because Russian pilots do not fly enough and do not train for complex missions involving large numbers of aircraft. Russian command and control, too, cannot conduct such operations.
It has thus become clear that US-led conventionally armed Western air forces could achieve SEAD/DEAD above Ukraine, or something close to it. This would involve using JASSMs and other advanced weapons to knock out the S-300s, S-400s and other dangerous SAM systems, probably on Russian and/or Belarussian territory. Less troublesome shorter-ranging SAMs inside Ukraine or near it would be comparatively simply dealt with.
Russian fighters, unless they are somehow hugely better than the rest of the Russian air forces have turned out to be, would not stand much chance against advanced Western jets with Western weapons and hardcore Western pilots – and advanced US SAMs already in Ukrainian hands.
With freedom to operate above Ukraine, Western air forces could do the same thing to the Russian army that they did to the Iraqi and Libyan armies: destroy pretty much every tank, armoured vehicle or artillery piece that dared show itself. This work, once the airspace was opened up by the various standoff cruise weapons, could mostly be done by cheap and simple drones.
The Russian army would be wrecked, and the Ukrainians would advance to any line that the US might draw: probably the pre-2014 border.
No Nato boot would touch Ukrainian soil, far less Russian. Very few Nato airmen would need to fly even above Ukraine, far less Russia. A few SAM batteries and radars would be hit within Russia itself.
Compared to Putin’s possible nuclear escalation outside his own borders, the West would barely have done anything. De-escalation without escalation, truly.
So there’s a spectrum of conventional military options open to the US and its allies: ranging from a few pinpoint long haul strikes, all the way up to full SEAD/DEAD and the Russian invasion army shattered beneath hostile skies.
The US-led West can ensure that any tactical nuclear escalation by Russia would lead not to success but to further reversals or to total military defeat in Ukraine – pretty much no matter how effective Russian nukes might be. This would require only conventional weapons, only from the air and almost entirely within Ukraine.
General Gerasimov and his comrades know all this. It will not be easy to persuade them that provoking such a response is a good military idea. Rather than “escalating to de-escalate”, Putin would have escalated to achieve guaranteed conventional defeat: all without the enemy needing to use nukes at all.
What could Putin do then? Escalate again, as he and his spokesmen have threatened, and use strategic megaton-range nukes against Nato targets – London, for instance?
London would be a particularly bad choice. The UK, thank goodness, is a nuclear armed nation and all of Russia would shortly cease to exist without the need for the rest of Nato to do anything. Russia’s cities would not survive like Hiroshima and Nagasaki: strategic megaton weapons are a different ball game.
Maybe Putin might seek to back down the West by hitting some other, non-nuclear Nato nation: but Nato responds to an attack on one as if to an attack on all. There are various ways that could play out, but it would probably end the same way as a strategic attack on the UK: with no more Russia.
Gerasimov and other powerful men in Moscow know all this. They also know that if Putin orders and they disagree, they must kill him before he kills them.
They know, too, that it is Putin who would carry the can for Russian defeat in Ukraine, not them.
Going nuclear could work out better for Vladimir Putin than this, especially if the US didn't react effectively. Nonetheless it's a plan which puts his personal survival at severe risk. If he's thinking straight he will do almost anything else.
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Re: Another Drive4show 'Anything goes' thread
by navyblueshorts Mon 03 Oct 2022, 2:20 pm
Didn't stop Hitler and suspect if had the technology, he'd have been quite happy to incinerate everything that he could, including Germany as he thought his countrymen and women weren't worthy of his vision come the end. Hopefully Putin isn't of that view, and even if he is, hopefully those around him and at the top of the military aren't.Pal Joey wrote:Hopefully there's a 'Stanislav Petrov' on duty on the day that the order comes through from Putin.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/1983_Soviet_nuclear_false_alarm_incident
What I don't get is that if such a terrible situation was to occur surely that would render that part of the world unsuitable for any sort of agriculture and industry for some while to come.
Sort of defeats the purpose doesn't it... or is there a way of containing the contamination from smaller tactical nuclear explosions?
In answer to the last point, configure detonation as air burst? Not perfect, but a lot better than ground burst.
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Re: Another Drive4show 'Anything goes' thread
by McLaren Mon 03 Oct 2022, 5:15 pm
Jokes aside, that was interesting article Navy. Thanks for posting.
I like the writers idea that Russian using battlefield tactical nukes might actually be its quickest route to demise in Ukraine, but I am not sure in reality anyone can predict how things would turn out once the first nuke of any sort is fired.
The safest and hopefully most likely end to Putins madness has to be his loss of respect and power among those in positions of power within Russia. As described in that article it would seem he knows that his generals wouldn't actually push the button even if he ordered it. And even besides that they must be pretty hacked off about having to send their men to a pointless death in a pointless war. This along with oligarchs falling out of windows can't be good for Putins popularity.
I actually wonder if Putin will start to take things out on the Russian people to fuel is egotism if he can't win what he thought was a simple war in Ukraine.
I like the writers idea that Russian using battlefield tactical nukes might actually be its quickest route to demise in Ukraine, but I am not sure in reality anyone can predict how things would turn out once the first nuke of any sort is fired.
The safest and hopefully most likely end to Putins madness has to be his loss of respect and power among those in positions of power within Russia. As described in that article it would seem he knows that his generals wouldn't actually push the button even if he ordered it. And even besides that they must be pretty hacked off about having to send their men to a pointless death in a pointless war. This along with oligarchs falling out of windows can't be good for Putins popularity.
I actually wonder if Putin will start to take things out on the Russian people to fuel is egotism if he can't win what he thought was a simple war in Ukraine.
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Re: Another Drive4show 'Anything goes' thread
by pedro Tue 04 Oct 2022, 8:09 pm
Liverpool vs Rangers… I’m sure super can’t contain himself.
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Re: Another Drive4show 'Anything goes' thread
by super_realist Wed 05 Oct 2022, 6:18 am
pedro wrote:Liverpool vs Rangers… I’m sure super can’t contain himself.
Lucky it wasn't 8-0. Absolutely battered.
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Re: Another Drive4show 'Anything goes' thread
by super_realist Wed 05 Oct 2022, 6:19 am
McLaren wrote:Jokes aside, that was interesting article Navy. Thanks for posting.
I like the writers idea that Russian using battlefield tactical nukes might actually be its quickest route to demise in Ukraine, but I am not sure in reality anyone can predict how things would turn out once the first nuke of any sort is fired.
The safest and hopefully most likely end to Putins madness has to be his loss of respect and power among those in positions of power within Russia. As described in that article it would seem he knows that his generals wouldn't actually push the button even if he ordered it. And even besides that they must be pretty hacked off about having to send their men to a pointless death in a pointless war. This along with oligarchs falling out of windows can't be good for Putins popularity.
I actually wonder if Putin will start to take things out on the Russian people to fuel is egotism if he can't win what he thought was a simple war in Ukraine.
We need to stop looking at Putin from a Western viewpoint. He's mad in our view, he's not mad from an Eastern European ex Soviet, communist state, secret police, dictator viewpoint
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Re: Another Drive4show 'Anything goes' thread
by Duty281 Wed 05 Oct 2022, 10:18 am
Three games for Rangers, three losses and zero goals. Didn't somebody on here say that nobody would want to draw Rangers?
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Re: Another Drive4show 'Anything goes' thread
by super_realist Wed 05 Oct 2022, 10:22 am
Duty281 wrote:Three games for Rangers, three losses and zero goals. Didn't somebody on here say that nobody would want to draw Rangers?
Celtic and Rangers being pot 4 teams are exactly the type of teams better teams want to draw. Easy games.
They're just not close to CL standard
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Re: Another Drive4show 'Anything goes' thread
by McLaren Wed 05 Oct 2022, 10:43 am
I am not prone to defending the old firm but what do you mean by not close to CL standard? They are probably pretty similar to other pot 4 teams.
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Re: Another Drive4show 'Anything goes' thread
by super_realist Wed 05 Oct 2022, 10:52 am
McLaren wrote:I am not prone to defending the old firm but what do you mean by not close to CL standard? They are probably pretty similar to other pot 4 teams.
They clearly aren't capable of competing in it, furthermore if they were genuinely Champions League standard they wouldn't have to rely on Russian league expulsion to get in automatically and wouldn't have such a dismal qualifying record against Malmo, Copenhagen, Midtylland etc.
Teams that are CL standard actually appear in it, rather than once every five years. Evidently they are there to make up numbers.
Getting third position is the aspiration and that looks a step too far for Rangers at least and likely Celtic
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Re: Another Drive4show 'Anything goes' thread
by McLaren Wed 05 Oct 2022, 11:27 am
I still don't get your point. The old firm are about as good as other teams who you would expect to finish 3rd/4th in the group. Loads of teams that qualify have little hope of getting to the knock outs.
But don't you think that says more about the state of football rather than the teams unable to compete? Without the distortion of vast amounts of money European football would be much more interesting.
But don't you think that says more about the state of football rather than the teams unable to compete? Without the distortion of vast amounts of money European football would be much more interesting.
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Re: Another Drive4show 'Anything goes' thread
by super_realist Wed 05 Oct 2022, 11:31 am
McLaren wrote:I still don't get your point. The old firm are about as good as other teams who you would expect to finish 3rd/4th in the group. Loads of teams that qualify have little hope of getting to the knock outs.
But don't you think that says more about the state of football rather than the teams unable to compete? Without the distortion of vast amounts of money European football would be much more interesting.
The Old Firm are partly responsible for the poor state of Scottish football, lack of competition and therefore appalling European performances at the highest level.
They live in the past and fail to realise they come from a dreadful product which garners no interest or investment from financial sources which could lead to its improvement. It's been going downhill for years, yet Celtic and Rangers moan about the competition despite being complicit in why it's so poor.
Pot 4 teams are by definition bottom feeders and no OF fans should have expectations beyond avoiding humiliation.
It's like Shane Lowry expecting to be competitive in the Olympic 100m
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Re: Another Drive4show 'Anything goes' thread
by navyblueshorts Wed 05 Oct 2022, 1:34 pm
Part of the problem, surely, is that the Champions' League, is nothing of the sort any more. IMO, should be for winners of top divisions in relevant countries, only. Then again, would be a smaller cash cow, so of course that's no longer the case.
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Re: Another Drive4show 'Anything goes' thread
by super_realist Wed 05 Oct 2022, 1:38 pm
navyblueshorts wrote:Part of the problem, surely, is that the Champions' League, is nothing of the sort any more. IMO, should be for winners of top divisions in relevant countries, only. Then again, would be a smaller cash cow, so of course that's no longer the case.
I see the term Champions League as no more noteworthy than the Personality part of SPOTY.
It would be crap with winners only. Real Madrid v Bodø?
Man City v Amagusta?
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Re: Another Drive4show 'Anything goes' thread
by pedro Wed 05 Oct 2022, 3:08 pm
The CL was expanded to 32 teams a few years ago. Not sure if it’s the right number, but it sounds alright to give champions from smaller leagues a chance to play the bigger teams. Yes, pot 4 is largely cannon fodder but you also encounter the occasional surprise, just look at Brugge
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Re: Another Drive4show 'Anything goes' thread
by navyblueshorts Wed 05 Oct 2022, 3:26 pm
Not sure pertinent, unless one decides that only some leagues are good enough. If so, fair enough. At least a league winners only remit would actually fit the bill. Still, it's a UEFA baby, so why would anyone expect it to be about anything but money?super_realist wrote:navyblueshorts wrote:Part of the problem, surely, is that the Champions' League, is nothing of the sort any more. IMO, should be for winners of top divisions in relevant countries, only. Then again, would be a smaller cash cow, so of course that's no longer the case.
I see the term Champions League as no more noteworthy than the Personality part of SPOTY.
It would be crap with winners only. Real Madrid v Bodø?
Man City v Amagusta?
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Re: Another Drive4show 'Anything goes' thread
by super_realist Wed 05 Oct 2022, 3:39 pm
The point was Navy, that a competition with only teams that were Champions of their country would be terrible.
Champions of Poland, Czech Republic, Estonia, Latvia, Finland, Scotland, Wales, Ireland, Malta, Cyprus, Greece etc as automatic qualifiers would he dire.
These teams do get the chance to compete, bit demonstrate that generally they aren't good enough to get through qualifying.
Champions of Poland, Czech Republic, Estonia, Latvia, Finland, Scotland, Wales, Ireland, Malta, Cyprus, Greece etc as automatic qualifiers would he dire.
These teams do get the chance to compete, bit demonstrate that generally they aren't good enough to get through qualifying.
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Re: Another Drive4show 'Anything goes' thread
by navyblueshorts Wed 05 Oct 2022, 5:26 pm
Maybe so. Maybe just change the competition's title to "European Super League"?super_realist wrote:The point was Navy, that a competition with only teams that were Champions of their country would be terrible.
Champions of Poland, Czech Republic, Estonia, Latvia, Finland, Scotland, Wales, Ireland, Malta, Cyprus, Greece etc as automatic qualifiers would he dire.
These teams do get the chance to compete, bit demonstrate that generally they aren't good enough to get through qualifying.
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Re: Another Drive4show 'Anything goes' thread
by super_realist Wed 05 Oct 2022, 5:39 pm
navyblueshorts wrote:Maybe so. Maybe just change the competition's title to "European Super League"?super_realist wrote:The point was Navy, that a competition with only teams that were Champions of their country would be terrible.
Champions of Poland, Czech Republic, Estonia, Latvia, Finland, Scotland, Wales, Ireland, Malta, Cyprus, Greece etc as automatic qualifiers would he dire.
These teams do get the chance to compete, bit demonstrate that generally they aren't good enough to get through qualifying.
Well maybe, but what's in a name?
I'd much prefer it was now than when Celtic won it in 67. They love to go on about it but played complete nobodies until the final.
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Re: Another Drive4show 'Anything goes' thread
by JAS Thu 06 Oct 2022, 6:49 am
That would have been me, I’m now relegated to the lower echelons of football punditry but still slightly higher than Supes and his embittered nonsense.Duty281 wrote:Three games for Rangers, three losses and zero goals. Didn't somebody on here say that nobody would want to draw Rangers?
Rangers have been a disappointing shadow of last year for sure. Obviously I don’t accept Supers overtly negative characterisation but on the back of last season yes it’s been a very disappointing step up. In theory the could still get 3rd in the group and therefore Europa League post xmas which for me was always the realistic target.
As for where they are…Several contributing factors I’d say..
Tough draw, Napoli are clearly the outstanding pot 3 team
Money, pure & simple
Domestic competitive standard
The real transition from a Gerrard squad to a van Bronkhorst squad
It looks bad now but it’s not all doom & gloom but this year has highlighted the gulf between Europa & CL
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Re: Another Drive4show 'Anything goes' thread
by JAS Thu 06 Oct 2022, 6:58 am
super_realist wrote:navyblueshorts wrote:Part of the problem, surely, is that the Champions' League, is nothing of the sort any more. IMO, should be for winners of top divisions in relevant countries, only. Then again, would be a smaller cash cow, so of course that's no longer the case.
I see the term Champions League as no more noteworthy than the Personality part of SPOTY.
It would be crap with winners only. Real Madrid v Bodø?
Man City v Amagusta?
Or Man City vs Real Madrid….ffs Supes listen to yourself. Navy is bang on, it should NOT be called the Champions League, it’s a European Super League in all but name. The only difference between it and the obscenity that was proposed not so long ago is that there is at least some semblance of meritocracy, all be it biased toward the commercial interests of the big 5 leagues.
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Re: Another Drive4show 'Anything goes' thread
by JAS Thu 06 Oct 2022, 7:04 am
super_realist wrote:McLaren wrote:I am not prone to defending the old firm but what do you mean by not close to CL standard? They are probably pretty similar to other pot 4 teams.
They clearly aren't capable of competing in it, furthermore if they were genuinely Champions League standard they wouldn't have to rely on Russian league expulsion to get in automatically and wouldn't have such a dismal qualifying record against Malmo, Copenhagen, Midtylland etc.
Teams that are CL standard actually appear in it, rather than once every five years. Evidently they are there to make up numbers.
Getting third position is the aspiration and that looks a step too far for Rangers at least and likely Celtic
Fancy editing this one before I go forth and rip the utter Poopie apart point by point?
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Re: Another Drive4show 'Anything goes' thread
by super_realist Thu 06 Oct 2022, 7:42 am
JAS wrote:super_realist wrote:navyblueshorts wrote:Part of the problem, surely, is that the Champions' League, is nothing of the sort any more. IMO, should be for winners of top divisions in relevant countries, only. Then again, would be a smaller cash cow, so of course that's no longer the case.
I see the term Champions League as no more noteworthy than the Personality part of SPOTY.
It would be crap with winners only. Real Madrid v Bodø?
Man City v Amagusta?
Or Man City vs Real Madrid….ffs Supes listen to yourself. Navy is bang on, it should NOT be called the Champions League, it’s a European Super League in all but name. The only difference between it and the obscenity that was proposed not so long ago is that there is at least some semblance of meritocracy, all be it biased toward the commercial interests of the big 5 leagues.
Your nobody teams that are Champions from Austria or Lithuania get the chance to qualify.
If you want to change the name, fine. Not a problem, but it's a better format than the old 16 team knockout format isn't it?
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Re: Another Drive4show 'Anything goes' thread
by super_realist Thu 06 Oct 2022, 7:47 am
JAS wrote:super_realist wrote:McLaren wrote:I am not prone to defending the old firm but what do you mean by not close to CL standard? They are probably pretty similar to other pot 4 teams.
They clearly aren't capable of competing in it, furthermore if they were genuinely Champions League standard they wouldn't have to rely on Russian league expulsion to get in automatically and wouldn't have such a dismal qualifying record against Malmo, Copenhagen, Midtylland etc.
Teams that are CL standard actually appear in it, rather than once every five years. Evidently they are there to make up numbers.
Getting third position is the aspiration and that looks a step too far for Rangers at least and likely Celtic
Fancy editing this one before I go forth and rip the utter Poopie apart point by point?
Not at all. Celtic and Rangers are proving categorically why they are pot 4. They have been terrible.
Unless they do their part in improving the SPL and thus increasing revenue so they can compete at this level they are only ever going to be able to do ok in Europa and Conference, it's clear as day they aren't up to the CL under the status quo.
Not really sure how you can "rip that apart"
Celtic and Rangers are partially responsible for how bad the quality of the domestic League is, but do nothing to improve it. It's self fulfilling and any reasonable OF fan would admit they aren't good enough for the Champions League and unless things change domestically, they never will.
That's pretty reasonable isn't it?
Yes, it comes down to money, but if your teams can't be arsed to improve the product, then expect this every year until your coefficient denudes to the point where automatic qualification doesn't occur.
Rangers and Celtic aren't good enough. It's just a fact.
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Re: Another Drive4show 'Anything goes' thread
by beninho Thu 06 Oct 2022, 8:58 am
Rangers and Celtic seem perfectly feasible pot 4 champions league teams. And last season Rangers showed they could beat bigger champions league teams such as Dortmund.
Depending on the draw and tge 3rd seeded team they may have a chance.
Depending on the draw and tge 3rd seeded team they may have a chance.
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Re: Another Drive4show 'Anything goes' thread
by super_realist Thu 06 Oct 2022, 9:09 am
beninho wrote:Rangers and Celtic seem perfectly feasible pot 4 champions league teams. And last season Rangers showed they could beat bigger champions league teams such as Dortmund.
Depending on the draw and tge 3rd seeded team they may have a chance.
Pot 4 is whipping boys and that's where they are. That's the point. Pot 4 is there to make up numbers.
You see the deluded fans thinking they have a chance of second. It's hysterical.
Do you think FC Copenhagen have such delusions of grandeur or do you think they are just grateful to be there? It's about expectation and Rangers and Celtic should be grateful for the opportunity to play 6 games once every 5 (Celtic) or 10 years (Rangers)
They have zero recent experience at this level and so expectations should be adjusted accordingly.
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Re: Another Drive4show 'Anything goes' thread
by beninho Thu 06 Oct 2022, 9:14 am
Aren't Club Brugge top?
Football clubs should never settle for just being there.
Football clubs should never settle for just being there.
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Re: Another Drive4show 'Anything goes' thread
by super_realist Thu 06 Oct 2022, 9:33 am
beninho wrote:Aren't Club Brugge top?
Football clubs should never settle for just being there.
When you're as ordinary as Celtic/Rangers it's probably best to temper your expectations.
They need to set a benchmark and then try to improve next year once they realise where they are deficient.
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Re: Another Drive4show 'Anything goes' thread
by McLaren Thu 06 Oct 2022, 10:50 am
Super
I wonder if it is you that has unrealistic expectations about pot 4 teams and not those teams themselves. They are there to try and get a Europa league spot if possible and enjoy their matches against the traditionally big teams as much as possible, hopefully stealing a result.
I wonder if it is you that has unrealistic expectations about pot 4 teams and not those teams themselves. They are there to try and get a Europa league spot if possible and enjoy their matches against the traditionally big teams as much as possible, hopefully stealing a result.
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Re: Another Drive4show 'Anything goes' thread
by super_realist Thu 06 Oct 2022, 10:53 am
McLaren wrote:Super
I wonder if it is you that has unrealistic expectations about pot 4 teams and not those teams themselves. They are there to try and get a Europa league spot if possible and enjoy their matches against the traditionally big teams as much as possible, hopefully stealing a result.
Mac, all I'm saying is the the OF are trying to walk before they can crawl.
If you listen to them they genuinely think they are capable of second place. Given their deplorable performances can you call that realistic?
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Re: Another Drive4show 'Anything goes' thread
by beninho Thu 06 Oct 2022, 11:41 am
They have legitimately qualified for the group stages based on past performance? If they are in a group of 4 they should be aiming for 2nd, hoping 3rd but maybe cone 4th depending on the group.
Neither club should say we are here to make up the numbers.
Neither club should say we are here to make up the numbers.
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Re: Another Drive4show 'Anything goes' thread
by Soul Requiem Thu 06 Oct 2022, 11:47 am
super_realist wrote:McLaren wrote:Super
I wonder if it is you that has unrealistic expectations about pot 4 teams and not those teams themselves. They are there to try and get a Europa league spot if possible and enjoy their matches against the traditionally big teams as much as possible, hopefully stealing a result.
Mac, all I'm saying is the the OF are trying to walk before they can crawl.
If you listen to them they genuinely think they are capable of second place. Given their deplorable performances can you call that realistic?
You post on a sports forum yet understand so little about sport. Every team will be hoping and believing they're capable of coming second in the group, that's how sport works.
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Re: Another Drive4show 'Anything goes' thread
by pedro Thu 06 Oct 2022, 1:22 pm
It’s also called the Champions Tour in golf. Yeah, it’s not the Super League - correct name would be Hasbeen Tour. But everybody loves the word Champion.
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Re: Another Drive4show 'Anything goes' thread
by JAS Thu 06 Oct 2022, 1:58 pm
super_realist wrote:JAS wrote:super_realist wrote:McLaren wrote:I am not prone to defending the old firm but what do you mean by not close to CL standard? They are probably pretty similar to other pot 4 teams.
They clearly aren't capable of competing in it, furthermore if they were genuinely Champions League standard they wouldn't have to rely on Russian league expulsion to get in automatically and wouldn't have such a dismal qualifying record against Malmo, Copenhagen, Midtylland etc.
Teams that are CL standard actually appear in it, rather than once every five years. Evidently they are there to make up numbers.
Getting third position is the aspiration and that looks a step too far for Rangers at least and likely Celtic
Fancy editing this one before I go forth and rip the utter Poopie apart point by point?
Not at all. Celtic and Rangers are proving categorically why they are pot 4. They have been terrible.
Unless they do their part in improving the SPL and thus increasing revenue so they can compete at this level they are only ever going to be able to do ok in Europa and Conference, it's clear as day they aren't up to the CL under the status quo.
Not really sure how you can "rip that apart"
Celtic and Rangers are partially responsible for how bad the quality of the domestic League is, but do nothing to improve it. It's self fulfilling and any reasonable OF fan would admit they aren't good enough for the Champions League and unless things change domestically, they never will.
That's pretty reasonable isn't it?
Yes, it comes down to money, but if your teams can't be arsed to improve the product, then expect this every year until your coefficient denudes to the point where automatic qualification doesn't occur.
Rangers and Celtic aren't good enough. It's just a fact.
Ok points
1. Russian expulsion, they were already going to be ahead of Russia in the coefficient. Rangers pretty much over the past 4 seasons dragged the Scottish coefficient from 23rd to 8th FACT
2. Rangers have faced Danish opposition twice since their resurgence, comfortably beating Midtylland in the Europa league qualifying and taking 4/6 points off Brondby in the group stage last season. I can’t and won’t speak about how the other half of the OF have performed.
3. I know this will be painful for you to grasp but the Scottish league is the 8th best league in Europe and in terms of finance is there punching above it’s weight.
4. Rangers were ranked 33rd at the end of last season, at the point of the CL group stage draw they were ranked 29th, had that ranking been used in the CL draw they would have been in POT 3, but for a Ramsay penalty they would have been in pot 1
Saying they can’t compete is utter Love sacks, there is a mile of difference between saying they’ve performed poorly compared to last season and saying they can’t compete. If they ship the same amount of goals in the next 3 games and 0 points then you’d be moving toward a semblance of a point but we’re not there yet are we.
Last edited by JAS on Thu 06 Oct 2022, 2:58 pm; edited 1 time in total
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Re: Another Drive4show 'Anything goes' thread
by McLaren Thu 06 Oct 2022, 2:15 pm
Jas
Super has a very low football IQ. He has demonstrated this over the years.
Super has a very low football IQ. He has demonstrated this over the years.
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Re: Another Drive4show 'Anything goes' thread
by JAS Thu 06 Oct 2022, 3:24 pm
McLaren wrote:Jas
Super has a very low football IQ. He has demonstrated this over the years.
I know, he’s repeatedly made a tit of himself since the start of the Gerrard era about Rangers capability of being able to compete in Europe. All doom and gloom, no recognition of the progress being made etc etc. This season has probably seen them hit what is probably their plateau level based on their overall financial & domestic constraints. They are not, nor are they likely to be a top 16 outfit. As a top 32 team though that does make them EUropa league competitive. The next step up they have to try and make is be savvy and competitive enough to be able to get into the CL and be able to cope and get a 3rd place which would enable European football post Xmas. With the luck of the draw this season that is unlikely to happen, Napoli as pot 3 outfit are exceptional, I’d stick my neck out and say they would have had a significantly better chance had they had the draw Celtic had.
Also something that does have to change that would help all of the Scottish game is for a 3rd team to step up and gather some coefficient points. Rangers have done their bit by improving the coefficient to the point where a 3rd team get guaranteed European football until Xmas. Would love to see Hearts do really well in the Conference this season and help consolidate the National Club coefficient. If they do….great, if they don’t, it’s not the Old Firms fault. The Hearts Hibs and Aberdeens of this world need to step up, at least now and again. You wouldn’t hear Brentford, Notts Forest Brighton etc blaming Man City, Chelsea, Man U etc for their inability to compete at the highest level.
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