PGA Tour / US Open: Notes from the Ballwasher

First topic message reminder :

1).First in driving distance.
First in putts per green in regulation.
Fifth in total putts.
Eighth in greens in regulation.
That's the trick Harrison Frazar pulled last week; if he can do it again he'll win the US Open. He has serious power, more than enough for Congressional, but one would expect his short game to desert him in the end.

2).These wins have hidden bennies: Apart from sponsorship bonuses and, in this case, a 2 1/2 year Tour exemption, Frazar also qualifies for Bridgestone, the PGA Championship, Kapalua and Augusta; and probably the HSBC Champions. And to think a few months ago he wrote an SI article about packing the pro game up after 13 winless years and $9M in prizemoney.

3).Roary Sabbatini's just had two weeks off, presumably at His Majesty Tim Finchem's pleasure. Now he gets to return to the scene of Bencranegate, where in 2005 he left pedestrian Ben to his own devices and desires on the 17th green while he played the 18th without him. Expect Roary to have another fortnight's holiday, win this week or lose.

4).Who's got form here? Only four players in the field have won at Congressional, all before Rees Jones redid (read lengthened) the Blue Course: Ernie Els (1997), Sergio Garcia (2005), KJ Choi (2007) and Anthony Kim (2008). Apart from Sergio, other Europeans who have decent records at Congressional include:
Freddie Jacobson, 2nd in the 2008 AT&T; Justin Rose with a couple of top thirty AT&T finishes; Luke Donald with a 13th place in 2005; and, of course, Alex Cejka with a 9th place finish in 2008.

5).Oops, last but by no means least, a certain Lee Westwood who finished T19th (with T.Woods) at the 1997 US Open here. Others from Team GB&I who made the 1997 cut were five Ryder Cuppers, Monty, DC, Sirfaldo, Coltart and Broadhurst.
AND: The son of a moustachioed itinerant goalscorer who plied his trade for, among other more distinguished teams: Bradford Park Avenue, Southport and Stockport. Now: No Googling allowed, who was the son of a strikerman who finished 24th that year????

6).Others who have at least two top tens in the five events competitors could have played include:
Furyk, with 2 x 3rds, a 5th, and a 7th.
Allenby, with a 3rd and a 6th.
Mahan, 2nd and 6th.
Snedeker, 5th and 8th.
Els and Kim, (both languishing in abysmal form).

7).Apart from the aged Fred Funk, there is no PGA Tour winner who could be described as a local. But: Mike Fluff Cowen is a member at Congressional, and a fine golfer in his own right. That may explain Furyk's terrific record here, but Jimmy's been out of sorts this year and it's difficult to believe Fluff can help him to the winners' enclosure.

8).Been having a look at Paddy Power's prices, and my five European value bets, paying each way down to 6th, are:
11/1 Westwood
60/1 Garcia
66/1 Karlsson
70/1 Rose
200/1 Noren.
My three to beat the field would be Choi, Mahan, Westwood, not necessarily in that order! Sure Donald and Stricker are among those in superb form (and Stricker also has a good record here) but this course will be unrelenting to shorter hitters unless they hit at least 75% of the fairways; it's not just the long irons into greens, it's the strength to get out of jail.

9).Before we know it, we'll be talking about Royal St.George's and the R&A mini-money-list is now led by, yup, Harrison Frazar, followed by Goydos, Jobe, CHIII and Holmes.

10).Lastly, the Nationwiders are hard at it in Kansas, Christian and Owen hopefully putting four good rounds together and Russell Knox rediscovering his form of a few weeks ago.

kwinigolfer wrote:But don't you think Rory has power to spare compared to 95% of his fellow competitors?
I think the leaderboard shows that above-average length, and above-average accuracy off the tee will be the keys to Congressional success. If, as Azinger keeps repeating, there are only three wedge-second-shot par 4's, you'd think the Luke Donald / Jim Furyk / Toms / Stricker type game will really struggle.

re rory's distance, he knocked a 3 wood 318 yds on one hole yesterday! think it was the 1st, setting up another birdie.

yes, there are a lot of ifs and buts, but he was striking the ball beautifully. you could tell as soon as he was half way up his follow through that they were good, there was such poise and control in his swing.

monty also commented on how his putting stroke had changed, finishing lower and to the left. he was sinking the sub-15 footers for birdies and leaving the 15-30 footers stone dead. he didn't have many, if any putts beyond that length such was the quality of his approach play.

and that's what also impressed me. when he chose to play safe and how he did it - leaving not much more than 20ft a lot of the time, but the right side of the hole compared to the danger. when he went for it, he invariably peppered the flag. as butch said, the US open is all about the pars, ie valueing them when they're the right thing to do and making sure you guarantee them.

i think jack's been giving him some invaluable mental and course mgmt coaching. i noticed him taking a little extra look at a couple of 2 foot putts that before, we'd have seen him rush and slide by.

criticisms? he should have sunk that eagle on 6 and probably another 2 or 3 birdie chances which finished stone dead, low side of the hole. that really is all there is to criticise about yesterday's round and the usga's nose will be a tad out of joint at him not dropping a shot and taking 6 away with him!

All in all though Rory was magnificent!!!

Big surprises to me (and Rory's no longer a surprise, good or bad):

Good:
Garrigus: -1. (Terrible recent form.)
Henrik Stenson: -1: (Not because he can't do it, just haven't seen that form lately!)
Oosthuizen: -2: (Not been playing well in the US since he took his card.)

Bad:
Karlsson: +8: (Made 10 cuts in his last 11 Majors and we know he's been in great form.)
KJ Choi: +6: (This course is just up his street, at least, it was four years ago.)
Westwood: +4: (Turned a ho hum +2 into a disappointing +4 by bogeying two par fives in his last four holes. Not good enough.)

oh dear, you can play a round at congressional from the usga website! i found it by looking at a specific hole http://www.usopen.com/en_US/index.html#!/course/index/hole_6 and noticed a "play now" button. doh!!

Lairdy wrote:Great display by McIlroy yesterday. I just hope his putting will stand up when his irons arent quite as hot. He will start to miss some greens and leave himself more of those 6-10 foot par putts. Thats what had him shaking at the Masters before his 10th hole meltdown. The plus this time around is being a US Open he will probably have to start making those par putts a bit sooner that Sunday afternoon.

I found it very interesting that Monty felt his putting stroke was markedly improved since Augusta (though quite why he felt he couldn't mention 'The Masters' I don't know.) If he has built a more reliable stroke, and can muster the guts to hole some clutch putts when it matters, he could do a Tiger in 2000 and win by 15.

SmithersJones wrote:

Lairdy wrote:Great display by McIlroy yesterday. I just hope his putting will stand up when his irons arent quite as hot. He will start to miss some greens and leave himself more of those 6-10 foot par putts. Thats what had him shaking at the Masters before his 10th hole meltdown. The plus this time around is being a US Open he will probably have to start making those par putts a bit sooner that Sunday afternoon.

I found it very interesting that Monty felt his putting stroke was markedly improved since Augusta (though quite why he felt he couldn't mention 'The Masters' I don't know.) If he has built a more reliable stroke, and can muster the guts to hole some clutch putts when it matters, he could do a Tiger in 2000 and win by 15.

The problem is that his putting stroke wasn't always as bad as it was in April. It was pretty good at Quail Hollow last year, for instance. It might look fine now, but the big challenge will be whether it stands up under pressure.

Congressional forecast: Gridlock.

Congressional Country Club weather forecast:
Friday: Quiet start, mid 60's, partly cloudy, no wind to speak of. After half an inch of rain last night, conditions, for straight hitters at least, should be perfect. Afternoon temps rising to mid 80's, 40% chance of thunderstorm.

Saturday: Warmer (upper 80's) and muggier, 30% chance p.m. thunderstorms.

Sunday: Similar to Saturday, perhaps slightly milder.

I'd say a big advantage for this morning's protagonists, Rory, Phil etc, this afternoon a bit more uncertain.

Cut-line confirmed at top 60 golfers, plus those within ten shots of the Round 2 lead.
So: Currently that means the plus fours are in (well, it is golf isn't it), but if Rory, for instance, goes crazy then the "within ten shots" rule becomes moot and Lee Westwood, Stricker, Dustin, Franny M, Immelman, Ogilvy, Poulter, Watney, Byrd etc among others all sitting at +4, will need to see significant improvement on Thursday's work.

That was impressive from Rory yesterday, -6 in a US Open??

What do we all think of Rory's chances? I suspect he'll need a big lead to go into the final round, I think he could get jittery again. If it gets firm over the weekend, it will be unlikely that another player will go low... so even if he does struggle it might not be an Augusta replay.

What's really impressive to me is that Rory's first round at a major after the Augusta meltdown is -6 at a brutal US Open set up. Speaks to both his physical talent and his frame of mind. He didn't seem to hit a scared or defensive shot out there.

I know it's cliche, but the next two days will require him to stay patient yet aggressive. It should make for great theater.

Redrage wrote:What do we all think of Rory's chances? I suspect he'll need a big lead to go into the final round, I think he could get jittery again. If it gets firm over the weekend, it will be unlikely that another player will go low... so even if he does struggle it might not be an Augusta replay.

I don't expect his putting stroke to stay this good. Whether that matters will depend on whether his swing holds up.

Just read this and I thought it was a typo. Simply astonishing and shows just how little most of us have in common with these guys ...

The 523-yard finishing hole at Congressional got a look at how far current golfers hit their drives. Australia’s Jason Day hit a pitching wedge for his second shot to the green. Ryan Palmer hit a 9-iron and Rory McIlroy an 8-iron.

NedB-H wrote:I don't expect his putting stroke to stay this good. Whether that matters will depend on whether his swing holds up.

Likewise! It's shaping up to be an eventful contest.

Shotrock wrote:Just read this and I thought it was a typo. Simply astonishing and shows just how little most of us have in common with these guys ...

The 523-yard finishing hole at Congressional got a look at how far current golfers hit their drives. Australia’s Jason Day hit a pitching wedge for his second shot to the green. Ryan Palmer hit a 9-iron and Rory McIlroy an 8-iron.

i think it plays downhill, but still a staggering distance to be hitting a PW or 8 iron.

I wonder if Rory is best served coming from behind? 'Course, that's got its own negative connotations as someone now will have to overtake him, but it appeals to that aggressive streak that Sr talks about.

He was swinging the club so beautifully yesterday that it's difficult to conceive that he'll lost that overnight so anything under par for Round 2 will likely mean a Saturday morning lead.

Regardless, Shotrock is right about the prospect of "great theater"! (It is Washington after all!)

I see in the early going Brazil is faltering and Tryon is getting tailed off . . . .

Sr: 18 plays very much downhill, exaggerated the further you hit it - if in the fairway of course! But even so . . .

I don't think we'll see any mental gremlins from Rory until the final round and even then hopefully none at all! There was a lot of discussion the week after Augusta when he shot the lights out the following week. Much conjecture that he had got over his final round nightmare etc. I always maintained that he wouldn't have any issues in regualr events, after all he's been there and won before.
Mentally stepping up to a Major and the realisation of what he could possibly achieve, now that is a different matter. Only when he is in contention in a Major again will we find out if Augusta has left any scars.

Somehow, I don't think it has, I think he'll have banked the experience and will learn from it.

Go Rory!!

Rory has parred 1, birdie chance at 2. That's from Stephen Watson's twitter, @winkerwatson1

Also seen last night something about Norman? leading all four majors after the third round? Think Tom Lehman did that as well in 1996, but only won The Open..

Dave,
That's most unlikely for Lehman; he finished 18th, 2nd and 14th respectively in the other Majors with decent final rounds in all of them.

Where Lehman DID establish a remarkable sequence was in US Open finishes: 3rd, 2nd, 3rd, 5th (1995 - 1998) and I believe he was in the final group for all four without winning.

4 shot lead now, he's birdied 4.

Yep Kwini, instead it was he held the 54-hole lead at US Open from 95-97 but didn't win any of them. My mistake.

Stricker making an early move ... 2 under after 4

Franny Molinari making a move: Plus ten over his last seventeen holes.

rory's GIR - 95.45% at the US open. keep that up!

That birdie by Rory probably means the top 60 cut will be plus 3 or plus 4, no chance of the ten-shot-off-the-leader rule applying unless Rors sticks it into reverse.

So: Lee, Hunter, Poults, Rickie, etc, etc, you know what you have to do.

4 Shot Lead by rors wow. Think Robert Rock dsereves a lot of praise for his efforts too, $1000 taxi fair to get there on time from New York.

Would imagine the course may be playing a bit "softer" today after all that rain, but on the other hand that means the rough will be worse.

Hope Rory can even shoot par today, would be no harm if he got caught today or tomorrow and had to go out and win it rather than protect a lead.

Wonder of Jacks words of wisdom are paying Dividend or prehaps as some are suggesting the trip to Hati has helped put things in perspective for him.

I have a feeling however and it pains me to say it, he will have a crisis at some stage, I just don't know how he will react. Time will tell ...

By the way I know he has Health issues, but how much of a twonk does Rory Sabatini look, maybe I'm biased because he's an absolute door opening mechanism too.

Wedge to 6 within a few feeet, not quite a tap in though.

-8 now, five shot lead!!!

Dave wrote:Wedge to 6 within a few feeet, not quite a tap in though.

no problem, 5 shot lead.

Is that a 2 we see on the par 4 hole #8 for Rory?!

venice1 wrote:Is that a 2 we see on the par 4 hole #8 for Rory?!

indeed it is! that'll fix your iffy putter...

If they ever applied a 10 shot only rule to make the cut, only 30 players would be looking to play the weekend based on current standings.

Hells bells! He's on fire! Hope he can keep a level head for the tougher back 9. And to think Zacher is probably playing out of his skin to be scoring like that with his length - still 7 shots back!

All early days mind.....

NedB-H wrote:

venice1 wrote:Is that a 2 we see on the par 4 hole #8 for Rory?!

indeed it is! that'll fix your iffy putter...

Putters are obviously for lightweights. I still don't think this will last, but it may only need to last 2 rounds and he could be put of site.

I remember when no-one had even finished an open at 10 under. That cost Roy his shot at immortality trying to get to that number.

Redrage wrote:

NedB-H wrote:

venice1 wrote:Is that a 2 we see on the par 4 hole #8 for Rory?!

indeed it is! that'll fix your iffy putter...

Putters are obviously for lightweights. I still don't think this will last, but it may only need to last 2 rounds and he could be put of site.

I didn't want to say it but... what sort of lead does he need after 54 holes to make meltdowns irrelevant?

Have the BBC gotten even more careless since we all left:

1500: If Rory is ripping up Congressional, Aussie Robert Garrigus is nibbling away as he cards his second bogey of the day to get up to three under.

That would be the same "Aussie" Robert Garrigus who has, on his PGA page listed birth place as Nampa, IDAHO, USA - and who has gotten a 2nd Birdie to get UP to three under.

If he had an 8 or 10 shot lead perhaps he could relax in the mind that nobody is going to surge towards him and only he can lose it.

LondonJonnyO wrote:I remember when no-one had even finished an open at 10 under. That cost Roy his shot at immortality trying to get to that number.

"Two-fifteen to carry, and the tour star's laying up."

The Sky Sports brown-nosers are already pretty much giving the tournament to Rory.

It's almost as bad as listening to them talk about Tiger

I can almost imagine the caddy in round 4.

"Right you curly headed little Poopie. This time listen to me and put the bloody driver away!"

Doctor Gil was the first player to get it to double digits under par at the US Open, to -12 early in Round 3.
Followed him that day as he imploded to a 77 - then to a Sunday 81. One of the saddest sites I've ever seen on a golf course (except most of my efforts of course).

Rory has GOT to keep going, no time to allow any possible doubt to creep into his mind.

I think Sky Sports would've learnt from the Masters when Rory lead for three rounds.

He is playing well no doubt, just needs to keep it up for another 3 rounds

Alright! The lousy putter's working.

Good to get a look at Andres Gonzales, think he might be my new favourite American...:

http://espn.go.com/espn/news/story?id=6663863

legendkillar wrote:I think Sky Sports would've learnt from the Masters when Rory lead for three rounds.

He is playing well no doubt, just needs to keep it up for another 3 rounds

Not quite... He's only got about 44 holes left to play

very nice putt to save par that from Rory

LondonJonnyO wrote:

legendkillar wrote:I think Sky Sports would've learnt from the Masters when Rory lead for three rounds.

He is playing well no doubt, just needs to keep it up for another 3 rounds

Not quite... He's only got about 44 holes left to play

Bit pedantic to say the least.....

What a tee shot from Watney there!!

No matter what else happens it is extremely impressive how he obviously get his game ready to hit the ground running in the majors. Wish he'd do it more on the regular tour more however.