Who will be ranked No1 this time next year?

What do you think guys?
How do you see things in one year from now?

This isn't based on personal preference, but who you truly think will be ranked world No1 this time next year.

Nadal probably will be since even if Novak takes the number one this year he will have a lot of points to defend. Can't see fed doing it next year.

Even if/when Djokovic gets to #1 I don't seeing him holding on to it for all that long and this time next year will be just after Roland Garros, Nadal's fiefdom. Also next AO, it's is to be hoped that Nadal isn't injured by the quarterfinals, so he'll have all to play for.

I don't think that Fed will ever regain the #1 slot -

he's slowing down now

Sorry Fed Fans



:run2:

I think that it is going to be Andy's year. He is only a slam away to becoming one of the greats. Come on Andy!

I went for Soderling because I am drunk!

Nadal...being #2 for him will be good, his form will return, Novak's will dip to a non-purple patch and Nadal will have points to prove (and gain).

Murray 3rd. Federer will "slide" to 4/5 in the world. Delpo maybe 4th.

legendkillar wrote:I went for Soderling because I am drunk!

Shouldn't you drink in moderation?

hang on, then you might randomly ban some people... get drunk, don't moderate!

Tom_____ wrote:

legendkillar wrote:I went for Soderling because I am drunk!

Shouldn't you drink in moderation?

hang on, then you might randomly ban some people... get drunk, don't moderate!

I think I am capable enough to 'moderate'

I won't be banning today or any other day if I can help it.

socal1976 wrote:Nadal probably will be since even if Novak takes the number one this year he will have a lot of points to defend. Can't see fed doing it next year.

????This "points to defend" thinny again!!!!!??


Being number one this time next year has nothing to do with points to defend. When will you learn that?

It will be very close and we will know when we get there. Part of the reason Nadal
Just about leads
Djokovic just after the FO is he has managed to defend all his points except at Madrid and Rome but also adding little to it with finals at Miami and Indian Wells. Djokovic will have to do something similar before the FO or he will lose points. Nadal can also lose points next year leading to the same period but unless he gets knocked out in the quarters of semis of the tournaments, it won't be as hard as Djokovic's.

Tenez wrote:

socal1976 wrote:Nadal probably will be since even if Novak takes the number one this year he will have a lot of points to defend. Can't see fed doing it next year.

????This "points to defend" thinny again!!!!!??


Being number one this time next year has nothing to do with points to defend. When will you learn that?

Agreed but still Djokolvic will probably have to have the same streak next year too. Remember that apart from AO when an injured Nadal lost to Ferrer, Nadal ONLY lost to Djokovic. It is to be hoped that Nadal won't fall at the quarters for a third time due to injury at the AO and subsequently miss Dubai. Similarly he defends 0 points at Paris this Autumn .. and remember, Nadal likes chasing.and ..and catching ...and overtaking!

Tenez wrote:

socal1976 wrote:Nadal probably will be since even if Novak takes the number one this year he will have a lot of points to defend. Can't see fed doing it next year.

????This "points to defend" thinny again!!!!!??


Being number one this time next year has nothing to do with points to defend. When will you learn that?

errrr.....?

If Nole takes the no.1 this year by a whisker, obviously most of those points will be the ones he has already won this year, which of course he will have to defend next year in order to maintain a no.1 ranking.

Objectively speaking a blank year from now until this day next year, there are no points to defend as you say - however, its clear from the quote above that the poster was saying Nole is likely to need a good start next year to hold onto a no.1 ranking from this year, as currently his points from earlier this year count and its likely those will be the points that hold him at the top of the tree into next year.

This time next year clearly means "in 52 weeks"...so the points to defends are irrelevant. It's the points to earn that count.

Lol, it's funny how Tenez struggles with simple logic time and again.

Dear Tenez and Socal,
As you are both together on this thread and as a newby I confused you, and now see the difference, please can I say sorry
(again) for that misdemeanour?

Simple_Analyst wrote:Lol, it's funny how Tenez struggles with simple logic time and again.

You could have edited your post to look a bit smarter but I froze your quote here for everybody to see you are the one who struggles with logic! ...to put it mildly!

Now now peeps. The debate is going well. Lets keep it on topic with giving points and arguments rather than little digs at each other.

This is semantics.

The #1 ranking is obviously achieved by having more pts than your rivals.

If Djokovic and Nadal are each on around 11,500pts say...this time next year they are likely to need the same amount to be #1.

That means they have 11,500 to defend from their current total (because if they dont defend them they will lose them!).

To "defend" 11,500 they have 3 options by the same time next year:

1. Earn the same amount, so should achieve #1 if already #1
2. Earn more...even better chance of #1
3. Earn less...i.e. not defended fully, with less chance of #1

But they are effectively defending their points total because #1 is a rolling 12 month tally of best 18 results.

So when someone says "Being number one this time next year has nothing to do with points to defend. When will you learn that?" - then that's not entirely correct because you are earning and defending your lead or total.

Lol, did you read what you wrote?

Socal and I rarely agree on tennis matter....but here it;s not a question of agreeing or not here it's extremely simple logic that unfortunatly evades even simple analyst.

In short, the number 1 next year will be the one who will have accumulated more points over the next 52 weeks.....regardless on how many points accumulated in those last 52 weeks.

Cheesy peezy but not for all it seems.

Yes but you're still defending points...its semantics!

OK. Its a neck and neck race. Let's say that Djokovic gets #1 by getting to the final but Nadal wins Wimby there will be a +415 to ND. However - come August, Nadal will get 500 pts from Barcelona so he will go +85. I know that's only one scenario but I see it a seesaw with life getting easier for Nadal.

Who is *thinny*

Everyone is entitled to their own opinion !

Personally I'm rooting for Andy - but I shall probably
live to regret it

So I guess should Murray do a round better the next 52 weeks than he has done last 52 weeks, he will be number 1, after all the points earn that count ,amusing.
Ok for me unless there are huge points lost or gained before the Year end, the race to this time next year will really start around AO as that's when Djokovic started his 7 tournament wins. Unless he plays the optional Monte Carlo and win the FO, his potential to earn any points is thin. He will spend the start of the year to this time next year defending his points.

lydian wrote:Yes but you're still defending points...its semantics!

It could be "semantic" if we were asking who will be number one in 6 months...or at the end of Wimbledon 11. Then we could talk about points to defend and how tough it could be for Nadal for instance. Nadal might "defend" Wimbledon yet lose his number 1 spot...despite having "defended" it and the FO...but over the next 52 weeks it's completely irrelevant...There are only points to "attack".

But if you look at Socal's post, it;s more than semantic as he implies it will be tougher for Djoko cause he has "many points to defend" and that is simply wrong.

Tenez wrote:

socal1976 wrote:Nadal probably will be since even if Novak takes the number one this year he will have a lot of points to defend. Can't see fed doing it next year.

????This "points to defend" thinny again!!!!!??


Being number one this time next year has nothing to do with points to defend. When will you learn that?

Djokovic won 5 titles from the beginning of the year so will have to defend them all if he isn't going to drop any ranking points by next June so YES it does have something to do with it.

braveheart101 wrote:

Tenez wrote:

socal1976 wrote:Nadal probably will be since even if Novak takes the number one this year he will have a lot of points to defend. Can't see fed doing it next year.

????This "points to defend" thinny again!!!!!??


Being number one this time next year has nothing to do with points to defend. When will you learn that?

Djokovic won 5 titles from the beginning of the year so will have to defend them all if he isn't going to drop any ranking points by next June so YES it does have something to do with it.

He might defend all his 5 titles and yet not be number 1 (as it is the case now) and he might defend none and be number 1 so he just needs to win more points than his opponents over the next 52 weeks of tennis.

I thought it was 7 titles he had: Ao Dubai, IW. Miami,Rome, Madrid and Belgrade

If talking about attacking points is the 'correct way' to think about points over the next year then technically we should never talk about players defending points at all in any conversation, rather we should talk about players who have points to attack.

For example Nadal has 0 points to attack at wimbledon. Murray has 1280 points to attack.

Taking it down the attacking line as you how tenez, just reinforces lydians view that its semantics at work.

Tenez wrote:

braveheart101 wrote:

Tenez wrote:

socal1976 wrote:Nadal probably will be since even if Novak takes the number one this year he will have a lot of points to defend. Can't see fed doing it next year.

????This "points to defend" thinny again!!!!!??


Being number one this time next year has nothing to do with points to defend. When will you learn that?

Djokovic won 5 titles from the beginning of the year so will have to defend them all if he isn't going to drop any ranking points by next June so YES it does have something to do with it.

He might defend all his 5 titles and yet not be number 1 (as it is the case now) and he might defend none and be number 1 so he just needs to win more points than his opponents over the next 52 weeks of tennis.

The point I was trying to make was that Djokovic got further than Nadal in those tournaments and still isn't number 1 so realistically for him to be number 1 in June 2012 he will either have to repeat those wins and do better than Nadal for the remainder of this year or Nadal will have to lose in the early rounds at the Grand Slams and Masters events which really isn't going to happen it so those ranking points he will be defending do count

Tenez wrote:

braveheart101 wrote:

Tenez wrote:

socal1976 wrote:Nadal probably will be since even if Novak takes the number one this year he will have a lot of points to defend. Can't see fed doing it next year.

????This "points to defend" thinny again!!!!!??


Being number one this time next year has nothing to do with points to defend. When will you learn that?

Djokovic won 5 titles from the beginning of the year so will have to defend them all if he isn't going to drop any ranking points by next June so YES it does have something to do with it.

He might defend all his 5 titles and yet not be number 1 (as it is the case now) and he might defend none and be number 1 so he just needs to win more points than his opponents over the next 52 weeks of tennis.

Wrong. By winning all those 7 titles next year he will still hold on to No.1. First of all him winning reduces the high point earning potential of his rivals. Winning is highly rewarded. 2nd, the situations is this way because Nadal dropped some tournament wins this year but helped to an extent by minor improvements on Miami and Indian Wells last year. If Djokovic mirrors his performance at those 7 tournaments next year he will still be No.1. To add more even the reason Djokovic is still not No.1 is because of Nadal defending almost all his points. The only points he earned were at Miami and Indian Wells.

[quote="Simple_Analyst If Djokovic mirrors his performance at those 7 tournaments next year he will still be No.1. To add more even the reason Djokovic is still not No.1 is because of Nadal defending almost all his points. The only points he earned were at Miami and Indian Wells.[/quote]

He has to become #1 first

I'd have thought it's very difficult to know for a few reasons:

a) a large junk of Nadal's current points are dependent on Wimbledon & the USO (33%), just dropping one of them loses him at least 800 points, possibly more depending on when he were to exit (while he could make up for lost points @ the Aussie Open but so can Federer, his potential rival for #1
b) a lot depends on who takes the points which go with Wimbledon & the USO, if it's Fed (even if he takes 1), he's in a strong position to be No.1 next year compared to Djokovic who has not only to win the Aussie Open again but also the 4 ATP 1000 series titles he currently holds, which he might do, but it would be a hard ask

Despite this, my take on it would be is this: for Fed it's easiest in many respects, because he holds no grand slams and has only made the final of one, it's easiest for him to pick up lots of points. He has got points to defend @ the ATP Finals (& 1 masters title) but the way it's structured means that even a few wins there would mean he wouldn't lose lots of points, and in any case, there's less points to retain there than @ a grand slam (1, 500 max).

For Nadal & Djokovic, it's tricky, to keep their high points share, they need to retain all 4 grand slam titles they share and losing just one of them loses them a significant number of points, not necessarily devastating but it makes it harder on them. Key in all of this is who the points go to. Also, both of them have monopolized nearly all the points awarded to finalists in the first 5 ATP masters tournaments, so it's hard for even Nadal to pick up points even if he wins back the 2 clay court titles he lost to Djokovic (it would net him 800).

Even though I'm not 100% confident Federer would win Wimbledon, I think he would make the final and I can easily see him making a final @ the USO too, that nets him 1,320 points, which takes him to 1500 points shy of Djokovic & Nadal. He wins a single grand slam and the chances are he'll be in good shape to be No.1, so just on the way the points are distributed, I'd say Federer, mainly because he's the only one of the 3 who can pick up points easily whereas Nadal and Djokovic can lose points far more easily (but that's only on the proviso that he picks up @ least one grand slam).

Nicely explained lucius, thx.

Talatonian wrote:I thought it was 7 titles he had: Ao Dubai, IW. Miami,Rome, Madrid and Belgrade

Sorry I was only including masters and grand slam forgot about the others

Interesting points Lucianman but the problem for Federer is, he has to fight 2 players for No.1 and will require them both falling off and losing points at the almost the same rate. A big task.

Interesting points Lucianman but the problem for Federer is, he has to fight 2 players for No.1 and will require them both falling off and losing points at the almost the same rate. A big task.

so realistically for him to be number 1 in June 2012 he will either have to repeat those wins and do better than Nadal

He will simply have to do better than anybody else...not Nadal alone. Nadal and all the other ATP players will have the same challenge. Win more points than their peers.

That's is the plain fact and no need to use the word "defend" in it!

True SA, although in practice it works out like this: because Nadal & Djoko hold all 4 grand slams between them, just one of them going to Fed puts him in contention of #1 easily (he takes the points that either one of them loses, so that's one rival knocked off, also, Fed would stand to gain between 1, 280 to 1640, a lot of points, excluding RG, there it would be 800). The big advantage for Fed is both Nadal & Djoko have to hold onto all the points they've won from the first 5 ATP masters tournaments, a much bigger ask, because they monopolize nearly all the points from the finals. It all really comes down whether Federer wins a grand slam between now and then, if he does, he stands a strong chance of #1. If he doesn't, I'd bet on Nadal on being #1.

Yes I agree. Will depend on if Federer wins a slam but might still not be enough. Remember ignoring the emphasis on start of next year, Federer has WTF and a masters to defend. If he can win any of the 2 remaining slams and defend the WTF and Cincy, he'll be back in the race the start of 2012.

Points to defend before year end

Federer has 5290

Djoko 4110 and 425 davis cup points - anyone know what happens to those?

Nadal 6220 minus the bonus 500 he will get in august = 5720

They all have many points to attack/defend - i don''t see Fed at any particular advantage here. He had a great end to last year and still trails Djoko and Nadal by about 2800 at present. Very steep ask against both of them imo.

Nadal will be number this time next year.

Djokovic had his flukey run, he'll be back to his normal standard soon enough

Murray is no way near the top 3.

Maybe Delpo is in with a shout if the planets align.

Sonic, dear me. You cannot fluke 7 tournament wins in a row. I can't see how Djokovic will get worse now that he's reached this level of consistency.

Remember sonic you said by December Delpo would be top 4.

Yup SA, I did mention the WTF and the one masters title, except with the WTF it's only 1, 500 max (25% less than a grand slam) and as I pointed out, the points you get is dependent on how many matches you win, so Fed would never lose all 1, 500 points unless he fluffed it, which I can't see him doing. It all comes down to if he can pick up a grand slam, that will make him competitive. As you rightly point out, it doesn't mean he definitely would be, it depends who he takes the points off, and if the other rival keeps their points, they will still be in the race for #1.

Tom, I thought he trails Djoko & Nadal by 2800 @ present? What my analysis was saying is that it's easiest for Fed to pick up points @ the grand slams without even needing to win because he holds none of them and has made 1 final, 1 sf, 2qf. I don't think I said Fed had any particular advantage, just saying it's easier! Compare that with Djokovic, 1 win, 1 final, 2 semis, Nadal 3 wins, 1 qf. Federer, has by any measure, the worst record and therefore consequently, the easiest path to picking up points (compared to them), even if he doesn't win them. For him to be competitive, he does need to win one grand slam. Also, the question was, who will be ranked #1 this time next year, not who will be #1 at the end of the year, because who will #1 this time next year depends a lot on if Djokovic retains his points and if Nadal has lost his Wimbledon or USO titles (which affect him more than if he wins the 2 clay court titles he lost).

Simple_Analyst wrote:Sonic, dear me. You cannot fluke 7 tournament wins in a row. I can't see how Djokovic will get worse now that he's reached this level of consistency.

He beat Nadal 4 times, when Nadal play dreadfully.

He's not reached Nadal or Federer's level

legendkillar wrote:Remember sonic you said by December Delpo would be top 4.

and what off it?

sonic_boom10 wrote:

legendkillar wrote:Remember sonic you said by December Delpo would be top 4.

and what off it?

I put it up there with the fluke remark about Djokovic

legendkillar wrote:

sonic_boom10 wrote:

legendkillar wrote:Remember sonic you said by December Delpo would be top 4.

and what off it?

I put it up there with the fluke remark about Djokovic

Go for it.

Delpo a Slam winner, former top 5 player...