Who will be ranked No1 this time next year?

by Guest Sat 18 Jun 2011, 3:54 pm

First topic message reminder :

What do you think guys?
How do you see things in one year from now?

This isn't based on personal preference, but who you truly think will be ranked world No1 this time next year.

by legendkillar Sat 18 Jun 2011, 11:32 pm

sonic_boom10 wrote:
legendkillar wrote:
sonic_boom10 wrote:
legendkillar wrote:Remember sonic you said by December Delpo would be top 4.
and what off it?

I put it up there with the fluke remark about Djokovic
Go for it.

Delpo a Slam winner, former top 5 player...

Being the operative word.

by sonic_boom10 Sat 18 Jun 2011, 11:34 pm

legendkillar wrote:
sonic_boom10 wrote:
legendkillar wrote:
sonic_boom10 wrote:
legendkillar wrote:Remember sonic you said by December Delpo would be top 4.
and what off it?

I put it up there with the fluke remark about Djokovic
Go for it.

Delpo a Slam winner, former top 5 player...

Being the operative word.

Whether you like it or not, he's well on his way back to the top of the game.

Current ranking number 22, a good run and he'll be top 5 in no time

by Tom_____ Sat 18 Jun 2011, 11:39 pm

luciusmann wrote:Yup SA, I did mention the WTF and the one masters title, except with the WTF it's only 1, 500 max (25% less than a grand slam) and as I pointed out, the points you get is dependent on how many matches you win, so Fed would never lose all 1, 500 points unless he fluffed it, which I can't see him doing. It all comes down to if he can pick up a grand slam, that will make him competitive. As you rightly point out, it doesn't mean he definitely would be, it depends who he takes the points off, and if the other rival keeps their points, they will still be in the race for #1.

Tom, I thought he trails Djoko & Nadal by 2800 @ present? What my analysis was saying is that it's easiest for Fed to pick up points @ the grand slams without even needing to win because he holds none of them and has made 1 final, 1 sf, 2qf. I don't think I said Fed had any particular advantage, just saying it's easier! Compare that with Djokovic, 1 win, 1 final, 2 semis, Nadal 3 wins, 1 qf. Federer, has by any measure, the worst record and therefore consequently, the easiest path to picking up points (compared to them), even if he doesn't win them. For him to be competitive, he does need to win one grand slam. Also, the question was, who will be ranked #1 this time next year, not who will be #1 at the end of the year, because who will #1 this time next year depends a lot on if Djokovic retains his points and if Nadal has lost his Wimbledon or USO titles (which affect him more than if he wins the 2 clay court titles he lost).

correct, 2800 corrected.

My point really depends on what you think is easier for Fed - win two masters, or win 1 slam? he had a good run to the end of last year, on par with Nadal and Djoko, even though Nadal took out two slams in that time. You have to think Federer may not match his points outside slams this year and so in a way he needs to do better in the remaining slams, even though as you say it likely he will do better. Apart form that, obviously i understand we are taking about no.1 in 12 months time - my point being that with so many point in the bag from the end of the year, the 2800 he needs over NAdal/Djoko may need to be won during the start of 2012 to catch up - this is quite an ask.. He has and SF and F in slams so far, so he may need to pick up a slam this and next year to get close to no.1

For me Fed needs two slams in the next 12 months to get the no.1 ranking. Thats a big ask with 2-3 other highly competitive players out there and couple of dangerous floaters like Del P for instance. If he does it, well done, but i think it might be better just looking at the choice of Nadal or Djoko to be more realistic.

To be honest in the modern game where all top player are competitive at every slam, i think anyone hoping to be number 1 needs two to be holding two slams. If you only hold 1 you need good results at other slams, or a big haul of Masters titles. Given Djokos run, he has to be a prime candidate for being number 1 while only holding 1 slam.

by Tom_____ Sat 18 Jun 2011, 11:41 pm

sonic_boom10 wrote:
legendkillar wrote:
sonic_boom10 wrote:
legendkillar wrote:
sonic_boom10 wrote:
legendkillar wrote:Remember sonic you said by December Delpo would be top 4.
and what off it?

I put it up there with the fluke remark about Djokovic
Go for it.

Delpo a Slam winner, former top 5 player...

Being the operative word.
Whether you like it or not, he's well on his way back to the top of the game.

Current ranking number 22, a good run and he'll be top 5 in no time

Top 5 ..........maybe, but wheres the points gap to Murray going to be closed down by YE to be top 4?

by luciusmann Sat 18 Jun 2011, 11:50 pm

I agree with nearly all of what you've said, he needs to win 2 slams if he's to be #1. It is quite an ask, but it's quite an ask to imagine Nadal and Djoko hanging on to all the points they've won during the the first 4 months of this year too (but as you point out, it is also an ask to imagine Fed holds onto all his points in the latter half of this year).

I think it's possible Fed can win 2 slams, I agree it's more difficult now then it's ever been in the recent past, although, he's looking to win 2 from 3 grand slams he's won multiple times, feasible. The key thing though is if Fed takes a slam, those points are immediately deducted from his opponent (which is Nadal or Djoko) which easily puts him in contention of #1. If Fed takes no slams, I'd say Nadal is definitely for #1. All starts with Wimbledon, whichever of those 3 contenders win it, has the best bedrock for #1.

Coincidentally Tom, wouldn't it have been a strange situation if Djokovic had let's say made the French Open final and then got to #1 and yet only hold one grand slam and Nadal holding the other 3 and not being #1?

by sonic_boom10 Sat 18 Jun 2011, 11:54 pm

Tom_____ wrote:
sonic_boom10 wrote:
legendkillar wrote:
sonic_boom10 wrote:
legendkillar wrote:
sonic_boom10 wrote:
legendkillar wrote:Remember sonic you said by December Delpo would be top 4.
and what off it?

I put it up there with the fluke remark about Djokovic
Go for it.

Delpo a Slam winner, former top 5 player...

Being the operative word.
Whether you like it or not, he's well on his way back to the top of the game.

Current ranking number 22, a good run and he'll be top 5 in no time

Top 5 ..........maybe, but wheres the points gap to Murray going to be closed down by YE to be top 4?

Early exit at Wimbo, failure to defend Shanghai and Canada masters.

by luciusmann Sun 19 Jun 2011, 12:01 am

Murray's earliest exit @ Wimby in the last 5 years was in 2006 in R4, otherwise his performance @ Wimbledon has been consistently good and has only got better and better since then.

by sonic_boom10 Sun 19 Jun 2011, 12:05 am

luciusmann wrote:Murray's earliest exit @ Wimby in the last 5 years was in 2006 in R4, otherwise his performance @ Wimbledon has been consistently good and has only got better and better since then.

Nothing ever stays the same.

Who gave Soderling a hope in Hell vs Nadal at Roland Garros in 2009?

by luciusmann Sun 19 Jun 2011, 12:06 am

How early an exit are you thinking of?

Also, you aware he just won Queens, which is not a bad indicator of form and his chances of doing well.

The signs for an upset with Nadal being knocked out were there in 2009, he hadn't performed as well @ the previous clay court tournaments as he usually does, similar to how Federer's lackluster performance @ the French suggested a similar upset for Wimbledon last year. There appears no indicator for Murray like there was for either Nadal/Federer.

by Tom_____ Sun 19 Jun 2011, 12:08 am

sonic_boom10 wrote:
Tom_____ wrote:
sonic_boom10 wrote:
legendkillar wrote:
sonic_boom10 wrote:
legendkillar wrote:
sonic_boom10 wrote:
legendkillar wrote:Remember sonic you said by December Delpo would be top 4.
and what off it?

I put it up there with the fluke remark about Djokovic
Go for it.

Delpo a Slam winner, former top 5 player...

Being the operative word.
Whether you like it or not, he's well on his way back to the top of the game.

Current ranking number 22, a good run and he'll be top 5 in no time

Top 5 ..........maybe, but wheres the points gap to Murray going to be closed down by YE to be top 4?
Early exit at Wimbo, failure to defend Shanghai and Canada masters.

Thats a 4500 point swing you need. Not only does it require Del P to do well, but it requires Murray to do badly. So you are basically saying that the only way Del P will be number 4 is if Murray does badly. fair enough to predict a Del P form improvement, but speculative at best to assume Murray (who has had his best year so far in many respects) will suddenly slump during his historically best part of the year.

by sonic_boom10 Sun 19 Jun 2011, 12:09 am

luciusmann wrote:How early an exit are you thinking of?

Also, you aware he just won Queens, which is not a bad indicator of form and his chances of doing well.

Round 3-4.

Queens is a best of 3, nothing like Wimbledon

by sonic_boom10 Sun 19 Jun 2011, 12:09 am

Tom_____ wrote:
sonic_boom10 wrote:
Tom_____ wrote:
sonic_boom10 wrote:
legendkillar wrote:
sonic_boom10 wrote:
legendkillar wrote:
sonic_boom10 wrote:
legendkillar wrote:Remember sonic you said by December Delpo would be top 4.
and what off it?

I put it up there with the fluke remark about Djokovic
Go for it.

Delpo a Slam winner, former top 5 player...

Being the operative word.
Whether you like it or not, he's well on his way back to the top of the game.

Current ranking number 22, a good run and he'll be top 5 in no time

Top 5 ..........maybe, but wheres the points gap to Murray going to be closed down by YE to be top 4?
Early exit at Wimbo, failure to defend Shanghai and Canada masters.

Thats a 4500 point swing you need. Not only does it require Del P to do well, but it requires Murray to do badly. So you are basically saying that the only way Del P will be number 4 is if Murray does badly. fair enough to predict a Del P form improvement, but speculative at best to assume Murray (who has had his best year so far in many respects) will suddenly slump during his historically best part of the year.

It's my opinion and I'm gonna stand by it.

Murray drops 2000 points and Delpo gains 2500. Delpo has nothing to defend

by Tom_____ Sun 19 Jun 2011, 12:13 am

luciusmann wrote:I agree with nearly all of what you've said, he needs to win 2 slams if he's to be #1. It is quite an ask, but it's quite an ask to imagine Nadal and Djoko hanging on to all the points they've won during the the first 4 months of this year too (but as you point out, it is also an ask to imagine Fed holds onto all his points in the latter half of this year).

I think it's possible Fed can win 2 slams, I agree it's more difficult now then it's ever been in the recent past, although, he's looking to win 2 from 3 grand slams he's won multiple times, feasible. The key thing though is if Fed takes a slam, those points are immediately deducted from his opponent (which is Nadal or Djoko) which easily puts him in contention of #1. If Fed takes no slams, I'd say Nadal is definitely for #1. All starts with Wimbledon, whichever of those 3 contenders win it, has the best bedrock for #1.

Coincidentally Tom, wouldn't it have been a strange situation if Djokovic had let's say made the French Open final and then got to #1 and yet only hold one grand slam and Nadal holding the other 3 and not being #1?

I agree wimbledon is pivotal in the race to number one at this time next year.

Also it would have been strange for Nadal to hold 3 slams, yet not be no.1, especially considering Nadal has fairly decent non-slam points scoops in the bag such as a masters and several master finals including YE champs. What it would have been is an reflection of how incredible Djoko's early year run has been.

by luciusmann Sun 19 Jun 2011, 12:13 am

Hang on though, you're saying Queens in nothing like Wimbledon, I'm talking about form, can you explain how you can be so confident that Murray's form is about to collapse? That's the only way Delpo will go above him. There's nothing to suggest it from Queens, or the French or any slams this year.

by sonic_boom10 Sun 19 Jun 2011, 12:17 am

luciusmann wrote:Hang on though, you're saying Queens in nothing like Wimbledon, I'm talking about form, can you explain how you can be so confident that Murray's form is about to collapse? That's the only way Delpo will go above him. There's nothing to suggest it from Queens, or the French or any slams this year.

He won Queens playing no boy who will win Wimbo.

Guys like Tsonga or Roddick won't be in the mix.

by luciusmann Sun 19 Jun 2011, 12:19 am

Agreed, Tsonga & Roddick are unlikely Wimbledon winners this year but Murray isn't playing Nadal or any really good players until the quarters, so again, who exactly is going to knock him out early on?

by sonic_boom10 Sun 19 Jun 2011, 12:20 am

luciusmann wrote:Agreed, Tsonga & Roddick are unlikely Wimbledon winners this year but Murray isn't playing Nadal or any really good players until the quarters, so again, who exactly is going to knock him out early on?

Murray himself.

Pressure, nerves etc

by Tom_____ Sun 19 Jun 2011, 12:28 am

sonic_boom10 wrote:
Tom_____ wrote:
sonic_boom10 wrote:
Tom_____ wrote:
sonic_boom10 wrote:
legendkillar wrote:
sonic_boom10 wrote:
legendkillar wrote:
sonic_boom10 wrote:
legendkillar wrote:Remember sonic you said by December Delpo would be top 4.
and what off it?

I put it up there with the fluke remark about Djokovic
Go for it.

Delpo a Slam winner, former top 5 player...

Being the operative word.
Whether you like it or not, he's well on his way back to the top of the game.

Current ranking number 22, a good run and he'll be top 5 in no time

Top 5 ..........maybe, but wheres the points gap to Murray going to be closed down by YE to be top 4?
Early exit at Wimbo, failure to defend Shanghai and Canada masters.

Thats a 4500 point swing you need. Not only does it require Del P to do well, but it requires Murray to do badly. So you are basically saying that the only way Del P will be number 4 is if Murray does badly. fair enough to predict a Del P form improvement, but speculative at best to assume Murray (who has had his best year so far in many respects) will suddenly slump during his historically best part of the year.
It's my opinion and I'm gonna stand by it.

Murray drops 2000 points and Delpo gains 2500. Delpo has nothing to defend

Murray only has 3855 point to defend between now and year end. You think Murray will collapse to such and extent that he will lose over half of these. Personally my opinion is that its effectively dream world save for injury.

by sonic_boom10 Sun 19 Jun 2011, 12:31 am

Tom_____ wrote:
sonic_boom10 wrote:
Tom_____ wrote:
sonic_boom10 wrote:
Tom_____ wrote:
sonic_boom10 wrote:
legendkillar wrote:
sonic_boom10 wrote:
legendkillar wrote:
sonic_boom10 wrote:
legendkillar wrote:Remember sonic you said by December Delpo would be top 4.
and what off it?

I put it up there with the fluke remark about Djokovic
Go for it.

Delpo a Slam winner, former top 5 player...

Being the operative word.
Whether you like it or not, he's well on his way back to the top of the game.

Current ranking number 22, a good run and he'll be top 5 in no time

Top 5 ..........maybe, but wheres the points gap to Murray going to be closed down by YE to be top 4?
Early exit at Wimbo, failure to defend Shanghai and Canada masters.

Thats a 4500 point swing you need. Not only does it require Del P to do well, but it requires Murray to do badly. So you are basically saying that the only way Del P will be number 4 is if Murray does badly. fair enough to predict a Del P form improvement, but speculative at best to assume Murray (who has had his best year so far in many respects) will suddenly slump during his historically best part of the year.
It's my opinion and I'm gonna stand by it.

Murray drops 2000 points and Delpo gains 2500. Delpo has nothing to defend

Murray only has 3855 point to defend between now and year end. You think Murray will collapse to such and extent that he will lose over half of these. Personally my opinion is that its effectively dream world save for injury.

We'll see.

Murray is only in the top 4 due to Delpo's injury.

Sooner or later Murray will be displaced for good.

by luciusmann Sun 19 Jun 2011, 12:34 am

Maybe, but you said it would be December this year, not 'soon or later', which is a bit vague.

Btw, there's a term for a player/person who's won something once and not done anything subsequently of merit or followed it up: one hit wonder. Let's hope Delpo doesn't become that.

by sonic_boom10 Sun 19 Jun 2011, 12:58 am

luciusmann wrote:Maybe, but you said it would be December this year, not 'soon or later', which is a bit vague.

Btw, there's a term for a player/person who's won something once and not done anything subsequently of merit or followed it up: one hit wonder. Let's hope Delpo doesn't become that.

Delpo maybe seen as a one hit wonder, that's still one more than Murray big fat zero no?

by luciusmann Sun 19 Jun 2011, 1:07 am

I'm a Federer fan myself, so I'm not fussed. I'm more interested in when this Delpo come back will happen.

by sonic_boom10 Sun 19 Jun 2011, 1:12 am

luciusmann wrote:I'm a Federer fan myself, so I'm not fussed. I'm more interested in when this Delpo come back will happen.

Probably when he spanks Federer at Flushing Meadows for a 2nd time Yahoo

by luciusmann Sun 19 Jun 2011, 1:19 am

All I got to say is, In Your Dreams!

More chance of pigs flying before that happens, Delpo can try getting into another semi final, let alone a final with the honour of playing Fed again.

Who knows, but don't bet your mortgage on it if I were you.

by socal1976 Sun 19 Jun 2011, 5:25 am

Good posts Tom and lucius, i think at some point this season Djokovic is going to catch Nadal. As long as he doesn't suffer a really early exit out of a grandslam he has a very good chance as Rafa has to almost run the grandslam table this year. In 12 months from now its almost too long of a time frame to predict. Fed has huge points to defend at the end of this season with how well he played indoors can't see him defending all those points. And frankly can't see him getting to another RG final next year, he played remarkably to get there. For Fed to be #1 this time next year he would almost certainly need to win 2 out Aus, Wimby, and The USO. That in my mind is a huge ask. Novak is going to have huge points to defend early next year but for me I think the players should be more concerned with who gets to year end #1 and not worry about the week to week rankings when its so tight at the top. I picked Rafa because for the first time in a long time next year during the clay court season he actually has the chance to pick up some points.

by ebar86 Sun 19 Jun 2011, 7:21 am

nadal n djoko hav about similar points to defend after this wimbledon,,but the obvious thing is nadal not playing in paris last year,,

fed needs to defend less points in first half of next season but has lot of points to defend after this wimby..4000+ or what..

but looking at histories;

2008 - nadal won 2 GS FO n wimby,,but couldnt reach no1 yet..

2009 - fed could only wrestle back no1 after winning 2GS back to back n of course with nadal losing early in FO,,and not playing in wimby

2010 - nadal back to no1 only after soderling upsetting fed in QF n himself winning FO

2011 - djokovic won 7 consecutive tourneys,,4 of them masters 1000 and 1 GS,,defeating nadal 4 times n fed 3 times,,yet never reach the summit

cant see djoko repeat that feat,,
so..nadal to retain

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