Nadal: Where to after Wimbledon?

To say that Rafael Nadal has a mighty challenge on his hands in the shape of Novak Djokovic is a massive understatement. For the moment Djokovic really has his number and I get the impression that for the first ever time in his career, Nadal walks onto court against an opponent knowing that his very best tennis might not be good enough to get the win. This is a new experience for him and how he deals with it may have a massive impact on the rest of his career.

I personally think he has made a good start by being honest with himself and the public in freely admitting the superiority of Novak Djokovic's game at the moment. If you can't accept that you have a problem then the chances of finding a solution are minimal. And when the problem is quite clearly the brilliance of a particular opponent, even more so.

Secondly, he is right in thinking that he does not need to panic and make drastic changes to his game against anyone else. He is by far the second best player in the world right now and his best tennis is more than good enough against everyone else outdoors on all surfaces and 99% of players indoors.

So that leaves the Djokovic problem. Can Rafa and Toni regroup and develop a strategy to neutralise the Djokovic game? They will need to as it certainly looks like Nadal and Djokovic will be carving up the Masters and Slam titles between themselves in the next few years.

My opinion is that Nadal is the ultimate competitor and he has shown the ability to solve problems posed by opponents by tweaking his game, improving shots and adding tactical variety. The serve is still the obvious shot that needs the most improvement. For a big strong fellow, his serve is still relatively weak. Improve that and he should be able to earn more cheap points and shift the pressure of holding serve in tight moments more towards Djokovic. Imagine Nadal with a Sampras or Federer like ability to serve aces and unreturnable first and second serves at key moments. That's a scary thought.

He may also have to go against the grain and be ready to play lights out tennis from the outset. He can do that as well if not better than anyone else as he proved in the Del Potro match. Maybe he has to play every match against Djokovic as if he has just sustained a foot injury and would rather smack clean winners left right and centre than get involved in protracted baseline exchanges.

What he cannot do though IMO is hope that Djokovic falls off the cloud. There is nothing freaky or flukey about the tennis that he is playing at the moment. He looks super-confident and totally in control of his art and capable of playing at this elevated standard just as long as he can maintain his fitness and confidence.

Who knows the future but my feeling is that Rafa will regroup and improve and win many more slams but the road to 16+ slams has just got that bit steeper. Either way this is a fascinating time for fans of tennis.

Good luck to both players. They are phenomenal talents, great sportsmen, they have taken tennis to a whole new level and I hope they continue to give us many, many more years of exceptional matches. May the best man win.

If you look at the h2h, which Tenez identified on another thread, the situation is far worse for Nadal than you suggest.

Since Autumn 2009 the h2h is 8-2 for Djokovic, and one of the wins for Nadal was when Djokovic couldn't see properly because his contact lenses were faulty at the O2. The other was the USO, when some might argue Djokovic was impaired by the epic semi-final win over Federer, but I call that one fair enough.

This is ownership.

Federer has been Nadal's best ally in his slam's quest. Taking Djoko out was crucial for Nadals 10th slam a months ago and Fed certainly helped him again soften the Serb for that USO 10 final too.

The draw will be key for Nadal's future slam chances.

bogbrush wrote:If you look at the h2h, which Tenez identified on another thread, this is far worse for Nadal than you suggest.

Since Autumn 2009 the h2h is 8-2 for Djokovic, and one of the wins was when Djokovic couldn't see properly because his contact lenses were faulty at the O2.

This is ownership.

So the parts where I wrote:

"For the moment Djokovic really has his number and I get the impression that for the first ever time in his career, Nadal walks onto court against an opponent knowing that his very best tennis might not be good enough to get the win. This is a new experience for him and how he deals with it may have a massive impact on the rest of his career ......

...... If you can't accept that you have a problem then the chances of finding a solution are minimal. And when the problem is quite clearly the brilliance of a particular opponent, even more so."

is failing to acknowledge this "ownership"?

Ownership can of course be reversed.

Will it be reversed? If so how? And as a consequence how many slams will Nadal finish his career with?

I am very interested in posters views on those questions.

What goes around comes around.

Or will it!

icecold wrote:
For a big strong fellow, his serve is still relatively weak.

Disagree with your assessment.

Serving @US 2010 @135mph.

5 Aces in the W 2011 final. Peak speeds of 126mph (Ad) and 125mph (Deuce) court.

Comparing Djokovic @ 123mph (Ad) and 126 mph (Deuce), there is not that much difference.

Comparing Federer (against Tsonga) 123 mph (Ad) and 126 mph (Deuce) and Tsonga 133 mph (Ad) and 135 (Deuce) is much different.

http://www.wimbledon.com/en_GB/scores/stats/day21/1701dss.html

http://www.wimbledon.com/en_GB/scores/stats/day17/1503dss.html

icecold wrote:
Maybe he has to play every match against Djokovic as if he has just sustained a foot injury and would rather smack clean winners left right and centre than get involved in protracted baseline exchanges.

Rafa had some crucial UEs. For example the shot in the tramline @ 4-5, 30-40 in the first set.

Tenez wrote:Federer has been Nadal's best ally in his slam's quest. Taking Djoko out was crucial for Nadals 10th slam a months ago and Fed certainly helped him again soften the Serb for that USO 10 final too.

The draw will be key for Nadal's future slam chances.

I am surprised that you don't think that there is anything in Nadal's game that can be improved .... he is 25 not 35.

What changes do you expect him to make to his game to try to challenge the domination of Djokovic?

I think that improving the serve is an an obvious candidate (as I outlined in the OP) but tactically do you see any areas where Rafel Nadal and Toni will be looking to improve or do you think they will just be prepared to accept the status quo without putting up a fight?

What do you expect Icecold? Nadal to play with guile from now on? SV? dictating ad wrong footing his opponent by taking the ball early? Hitting flatter so that everybody can finally handle his shots properly?

Nadal's destinity is not in his racquet.

@laverfan: I don't think Rafael Nadal serves as accurately as a Djokovic or Federer for a given speed and the second serve is a few clicks slower and more attackable. In any case I do think that both serves are areas that can be improved.

Your point about unforced errors is a good one. The difference between the two players is not huge but Djokovic is definitely better right now and of course the pressure of knowing that makes it more difficult to take your chances when you get them. Ask Federer how many break points he misses when he plays Rafa for the same reason.

icecold wrote:I think that improving the serve is an an obvious candidate (as I outlined in the OP) but tactically do you see any areas where Rafel Nadal and Toni will be looking to improve or do you think they will just be prepared to accept the status quo without putting up a fight?

Well haven;t I said enough times that Nadal's main strength is his power and stamina?

A serve is like a golf swing. It;s very much a talent shot. Yes it can be improved through more pace and Nadal does a good job to produce as much pace despite putting so much spin (It's like a second serve for most players but Nadal is strong enough to give it that first serve pace) but to really have pace AND precision, one needs real talent. I don't see that talent in Nadal. Never did. He would have had a different game...

Maybe with his right arm he coudl have but we will never know now.

Tenez wrote:What do you expect Icecold? Nadal to play with guile from now on? SV? dictating ad wrong footing his opponent by taking the ball early? Hitting flatter so that everybody can finally handle his shots properly?

Nadal's destinity is not is his racquet.

I expect him to:

* Improve his serve (more power on both surfaces and more reliability at key moments)

* Try to be more aggressive with the return, maybe go for a few more clean winners. For ages now, Rafa has easily been the best player from the baseline so the best tactic for him has always been to get the return safely back into play, frustrate the initial attack and then outmanoeuvre / outhit his opponent to win the point. Djoko is at least his equal from the baseline now so I think he needs to be more aggressive earlier in the point. It is role reversal. Against Djokovic, Nadal should be the one looking to end the point early. I think this is the big mental shift that he needs to make to wrestle the dominance back from Djokovic.

* Serve and Volley used sparingly as a surprise tactic, especially on fast surfaces is a good one to keep the opponent guessing, more so indoors.

* Hitting flatter? Of course not. What on earth for?

* Guile. He has plenty of that already. He is one of the smartest tacticians out there but I agree you can never have too much guile on a tennis court.

Icecold,

This is a good question. What can Nadal improve?

I believe he has already improved as much as he can with regards to varying his game. He is unlikely to s&v more, since most of his volleys are easy put aways after an almost winning approach shot. He is not a punch volleyer/net attacker. The transition game is not natural to him like, say, Federer. Remember Federer started at Wimbledon serving and volleying on the majority of points. Nadal is by far more comfortable at the baseline, and will remain there; his forays to the forecourt will continue to be few and far between. Secondly a good net game requires a strong first serve (not neccesarily pace, but also placement), he has a reasonable first serve, but nothing spectacular.

He could try to flatten out his strokes so that they penetrate the court more and result in shorter rallies. This would make him more aggressive. However, his forehand grip and swing are quite extreme, to try to reduce the topspin on his FH side would require significant changes. I'm sure he's tried this and has had some success (USO '10), but it appears he has reached the limits of adaptability on that wing. It will be impossible for him to hit his FH as flat as some of the other players as, essentially, one would then be talking about a different player, altogether different to Rafael Nadal.

Furthermore, his huge topspin FH is his biggest weapon and has brought him so much success; it also affords him a lot of margin for error. I think we've seen what happens when he tries to flatten it too much - lots of errors.

He could definitely hit his BH flatter and use it more DTL rather than the standard CC. I think this was one of the reasons why he was a better player in '08. However, he needs to feel very confident in order to play this shot with regularity. If his BH was stronger, or at least he felt more confident with it, he wouldn't need to run around it so much. By running around it so often to hit the IO FH he cedes a lot of court and often gets stuck in his BH corner - Djokovic, in particular, can then easily drill a BH down the line for a winner.

Other than this, I think all he can do is really play his existing game but play it at a higher level. For example, try to hit deeper with his cc FH (quite often these shots fall short and DHBHers like Djokovic can take advantage of this to control the rally).

He also needs to hit the FH dtl with consistency in order to change the direction of play.

Nadal's main problem is that his A-game has been good enough to win against the tour and is a terrible match up for Federer, however he no longer has the explosivenss to play that same game to the highest level required. Combined with that, Djokovic has obviously also raised his physical level and thus cannot be outmuscled from the baseline. I forsee this becoming an increasing problem against other players too as Nadal continues to slow down and other younger, fitter, faster opponents emerge.

For me the key is whether Nadal wants to push for breaking Federer's 16 slam record. If he does, which I'm pretty sure he does, than it will be very interesting how he goes about it.
I reckon he'll work on his serve like mad.

I can remember similar debate raging when Roger was having his Grand Slam duck in 2008 and went on to win another 3 slams after that. I think Nadal needs to change up his strokes and be more aggressive when playing against Djokovic. Novak has improved his game dramatically and isn't scared to attack Nadal and has done with great consistency and has been rewarded.

Nadal I think needs to work on his 2nd serve and improve the BH.

To beat Novak, Rafa needs to mirror Novak's game. One area that is amazing is Novak's 'flexibility' and footwork.

Rafa's footwork at W left him sitting on the grass quite a bit, but Novak was doing 'splits' on W grass and covered the baseline with aplomb and ease. That too after the baseline on CC had been worn down to clay.

How can a beast like Rafa mimic the flexibility of the stringy Nole? Not possible, from here on Nadal can't only get bigger and stronger but whether that's any help is uncertain.

I still believe there's a chance Federer will end his career ahead of Nadal, purely down to longevity.

Fed has not missed a slam since 2003 which is a phenomenal record.

I am not sure if Fed ever had trainer on the court either.

wow wrote:Fed has not missed a slam since 2003 which is a phenomenal record.

I am not sure if Fed ever had trainer on the court either.

2008 TMC against Andy Murray (for back issues).

Edit: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=KjTYpAkiCbo (Time index : 5:05+)
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=zgzowfPaHaE

Laverfan, all i can say as What A Match! Unbelievable!

The rally around 3:10 was outstanding, quality tennis. That's why I said not sure but I am sure that he has never retired from a match.

wow wrote:Laverfan, all i can say as What A Match! Unbelievable!

The rally around 3:10 was outstanding, quality tennis. That's why I said not sure but I am sure that he has never retired from a match.

You are correct, he has not retired in the middle of a match edit: after turning professional. He gave Blake a W/O in Paris 2008 (due to the same back issues that plagued him in TMC 2008). Amazing record.

http://www.atpworldtour.com/Tennis/Players/Top-Players/Roger-Federer.aspx?t=pa&y=0&m=s&e=0#

Edit: Will check on any matches prior to turning professional.

Nadal looks like he's had the stuffing knocked out of him by the soopa Serb, I wouldn't bet on him winning more than 2 slams.

laverfan wrote:

wow wrote:Fed has not missed a slam since 2003 which is a phenomenal record.

I am not sure if Fed ever had trainer on the court either.

2008 TMC against Andy Murray (for back issues).

Edit: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=KjTYpAkiCbo (Time index : 5:05+)
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=zgzowfPaHaE

Also against Safin in their famous AO semi 05?06?

Where to for Nadal? Toni will have him over at the amazon rainforest axing down 7 trees an hour then just to rub it in will chuck his golf clubs in the piranha infested river and make him go swim

Rafa I think has to use the flat forehand up the line and the up the line backhand more. Rafa wants to be aggressive from the baseline against Djoko and in order to do this he is going to have to take the ball earlier, and hit it flatter, and up the line more often. But like others have indicated his forehand and style of play that serves him so well with 99 percent of the tour is not really conducive to this change and could result in a lot of errors. Also the short angled slice to Novak's two hander drawing him up in the court is very effective as Novak still not as comfortable with his own slice or being drawn into net on someone elses' terms. Has to get aggressive with the second serve, again this is something that is not in his nature.

socal1976 wrote:Rafa I think has to use the flat forehand up the line and the up the line backhand more. Rafa wants to be aggressive from the baseline against Djoko and in order to do this he is going to have to take the ball earlier, and hit it flatter, and up the line more often. But like others have indicated his forehand and style of play that serves him so well with 99 percent of the tour is not really conducive to this change and could result in a lot of errors. Also the shot angled slice to Novak's too hander drawing him up in the court is very effective as Novak still not as comfortable with his own slice or being drawn into net on someone elses' terms. Has to get aggressive with the second serve, again this is something that is not in his nature.

Reminds me of a player that beats Djokovic fairly often.