The Next Breakthrough

As the Nadal, Federer and Djokovic articles have been done to death, lets look at the rest of the field.

Nadal, Federer, Djokovic and Del Potro are Grand Slam winners. Question is behind them, who will breakthrough and join the elite?

Andy Murray - Clearly the closest to date out of the chasing pack to break the Top 3 stranglehold on the Slams. 3 Grand Slam Finals to his name and defeat in all. Has beaten Nadal twice in Grand Slams, boasts a better H2H with Federer. Has all the tools and has the game to win a Slam, but frustrastingly for me as a fan seems to fall short. Some suggest Mental toughness is lacking, others think maybe he doesn't have enough weapons in his game to win one. Fair to say it is a mix of the 2. There is room for improvement, but can he do it dramatically remains to be seen.

Likely Grand Slam success? Yes
Grand Slam Event for success - US Open/Australian Open

Robin Soderling - Has 2 Grand Slam finals under his belt. Both at the French Open. The man who killed Nadal's monopoly there in 2009 and a year later came up against him and was destroyed. Has reached the Quarter Final stages at Wimbledon and the US Open. Has a big FH and a big serve. Behind Del Potro clearly hits the biggest FH on tour. Has beaten Federer at Roland Garros and behind Del Potro and Djokovic the only man to defeat both men at a Slam event. Questions though are asked of his mental toughness. Has a tendancy to implode. Is weak on the BH side. It is very difficult to see him win a Slam with the other talent that is in the top 20.

Likely Grand Slam success? No
Grand Slam Event for success - None

David Ferrer - The Spaniard tends to fly around the court and has such a tenacity about him on court. Has recently enjoyed prolonged success in his rankings of these past 2 years. Is very much deemed a clay courter. Has won 6 ATP Clay titles, 4 HardCourt Titles and 1 Grass title. He has made the Semi Finals of both the US Open and Australian Open. He is more mentally tougher than a Soderling. Has a good FH and BH and is an exceptional mover around the court. Consistency is the problem and at 29 is it too late for him?

Likely Grand Slam success? Maybe
Grand Slam Event for success - French Open

Richard Gasquet - The Frenchman is the ultimate Lazarus story. Such a promising start to his career was cut suddenly with testing positive for Cocaine in 2009 and was out of action for 2 months while clearing his name. In his early years had enjoyed victories over top 10 players. Mental ability on court was questioned. Has a beautiful FH and BH. Is finding his form again and is on the verge of breaking the top 10 again. I would like to see him win and Slam and age is on his side.

Likely Grand Slam success? Yes
Grand Slam Event for success - Wimbledon

Tomas Berdych - Made the final of Wimbledon last year to come unstuck against Nadal. Made the semi's of the French Open in the same year. He is a strange player. I say that in the nicest sense. Defeated Federer at the Summer Olympics in 2004 at the tender age of 18 and it almost heaped so much pressure of expectation on him. Like Soderling hasn't really followed up on the success of the previous season. Not sure though that his game has what it takes to deliver Grand Slam success.

Likely Grand Slam success? No
Grand Slam Event for success - None

Jo-Wilfried Tsonga - The charasmatic Frenchman is starting to rediscover the form that took him to the Australian Open Final in 2008. Has the tools no doubt to win a Slam title. Has the speed, FH, netplay and serve to win a Slam. I think he does at times show mental weakness and can sometimes get his tactics wrong and buckle under the pressure. Very entertaining to watch and could easily make the top 5 in the world.

Likely Grand Slam success? Yes
Grand Slam Event for success - Wimbledon/Australian Open

Young Guns

Milos Raonic - Certainly the stand out performer of 2011 to come through the ranks. A solid performance at the Australian Open this year. Picked off players such as Llodra and Youzhny. Has a big serve and FH and BH to match. I remember seeing a match where he quoted his string tension at 40lbs. Now that is super scary. Now doubt will be a Hardcourt Monster.

Likely Grand Slam success? Yes
Grand Slam Event for success - Australian Open/US Open

Ryan Harrison - The young American is certainly a prospect for the future and looks like someone who can be the leading light in American Mens Tennis after Fish and Roddick. Has a big FH and a big serve. At this stage it is hard to gauge how far he can go and what Grand Slam success he could have. His game doesn't look as developed as a Tomic or Raonic.

Likely Grand Slam success? Maybe
Grand Slam Event for success - US Open

Bernard Tomic - The Australian certainly divides opinion. Has lots of talent, but lack of brains off the court at times with his conduct. Had a brilliant Australian Open in 2010 and has followed that up with a good Wimbledon campaign this year. Can mix it up in baseline rallies and has a stonking FH and BH. I am sure he will win Slams in the future.

Likely Grand Slam success? Yes
Grand Slam Event for success - Australian Open

Monfils, Berdych, Fish(?), Tsonga, Lopez(?) and some of the young guns, like Harrison, Tomic, Raonic, et al. would be nice to consider in this list.

I really like the game of Tomic, he's got a long way to go, and am not quite sure what he's like upstairs, but he'll be one very very tricky player soon if he can focus 100%. Having said that, that itself will be his biggest challenge.

noleisthebest wrote:I really like the game of Tomic, he's got a long way to go, and am not quite sure what he's like upstairs, but he'll be one very very tricky player soon if he can focus 100%. Having said that, that itself will be his biggest challenge.

As might his challenge be to extricate his head from his buttock region.

Not that I know anything about that ! (you could ask other players about his aloofness, but it could all be a media conspiracy to undermine a future Australian champion again)

Jubbahey wrote:

noleisthebest wrote:I really like the game of Tomic, he's got a long way to go, and am not quite sure what he's like upstairs, but he'll be one very very tricky player soon if he can focus 100%. Having said that, that itself will be his biggest challenge.

As might his challenge be to extricate his head from his buttock region.

Not that I know anything about that ! (you could ask other players about his aloofness, but it could all be a media conspiracy to undermine a future Australian champion again)

That's what I meant by not being sure about the "upstairs".


It could be his dad causing all the trouble, still, I reckon he's the most talented of them all (Raonic, Doloplov, Dimitrov etc)

I was going to add to the list before I had to rush out LF.

I think Raonic has a lot of potential he has the karlovic serve but has a much more well rounded game from the baseline and in terms of movement. I would be surprised if in the next 2 years he didn't break into the top 10 and contend for slams. The next big breakthrough however is probably murray, he really should get that grandslam. Although he has a great deal of similarity to his game as a certain french Davis cuper who just won hamburg.

I can remember an interview with Federer. He said he found it much easier playing against players older than him or the same age. It was much more difficult when younger players came along and challenged him. Obviously there was one particular player he had in mind...

Apart from Del Potro who at 22 is not even that young in tennis years there has been no consistant break through from a younger player. The bunch of players younger than Federer in the top 20 (Nadal, Djokovic, Murray, Monfils and Gasquet) have so far not had to experience the very different threat posed by a younger player. Chances are (because no one in early twenties has broken through) when it happens it will be a much younger player. It will be interesting to see how they deal with such a challenge.

legendkillar wrote:I was going to add to the list before I had to rush out LF.

My apologies for the premature list. Hope you can add some more players to your list.

It depends on what breaKthrough you are talking of though? I mean in terms of being genuine contenders I'd say Murray, Tsonga, Soderling, Ferrer etc have already done that as all have reached slam semis or slam finals.

If we are talking about breakthroughs from newcomers I'd say the most likely pair that spring to mind are Tomic and Raonic.

laverfan wrote:

legendkillar wrote:I was going to add to the list before I had to rush out LF.

My apologies for the premature list. Hope you can add some more players to your list.

It was very much appreciated LF and I was going to add the young guns and others. Took me 20 minutes just for that short list

I shall have to do a massive catch up tomorrow.

i think tsonga has a chance to win in all but the french open, particulalry if he doesn't have to face djokovic

hawkeye wrote:I can remember an interview with Federer. He said he found it much easier playing against players older than him or the same age. It was much more difficult when younger players came along and challenged him. Obviously there was one particular player he had in mind...

Apart from Del Potro who at 22 is not even that young in tennis years there has been no consistant break through from a younger player. The bunch of players younger than Federer in the top 20 (Nadal, Djokovic, Murray, Monfils and Gasquet) have so far not had to experience the very different threat posed by a younger player. Chances are (because no one in early twenties has broken through) when it happens it will be a much younger player. It will be interesting to see how they deal with such a challenge.

I guess you grow up with the same players and you get to know their games inside out, similarily players have the top guns in their sights so make sure they are au fait with their games and work specifically on their games in order to target success at the top.

Then, a whole new bunch come along with games that have been worked on to target the top - you, and you have to readjust, or stagnate.

I think the dearth of young talent coming through - I am not convinced by Tomic (though think he will give us some more entertaining battles), certainly not Dimitrov and Raonic is a big serve, one two sort of guy, but he doesn't look the most fluid mover to me, and I really think you need to be at the very top of the game. The fact that he is injured already (through not moving his feet quickly enough) is not a good sign. Delpo is dangerous, but the one really lethal part of his game is that brutal forehand, and his wrist did not hold up after his USO triumph - I question whether it will in the long term again, or whether he will trust it enough - the one thing is sure that without it, he is not a slam winner.

Murray needs to decide how much he really wants this and to lose a little bit of the hero worship of Rafa - he needs to feel ruthless and really mean it!

I really like Tsonga and Raonic. Care-free game with huge serves should fetch them a salm or two when things go their way for 2 weeks.

time please wrote:
I think the dearth of young talent coming through - I am not convinced by Tomic (though think he will give us some more entertaining battles), certainly not Dimitrov and Raonic is a big serve, one two sort of guy, but he doesn't look the most fluid mover to me, and I really think you need to be at the very top of the game. The fact that he is injured already (through not moving his feet quickly enough) is not a good sign.

Had high hopes from Dolgopolov, but the initial promise is fading fast. Tomic needs more than a couple of brilliant matches. His Ao match against Nadal is a case in point.

time please wrote:Delpo is dangerous, but the one really lethal part of his game is that brutal forehand, and his wrist did not hold up after his USO triumph - I question whether it will in the long term again, or whether he will trust it enough - the one thing is sure that without it, he is not a slam winner.

For DelPo the surfaces also seem to make a significant difference. His lack of movement gets exposed by some players on Grass.

time please wrote:Murray needs to decide how much he really wants this and to lose a little bit of the hero worship of Rafa - he needs to feel ruthless and really mean it!

If Murray plays the way he played at the WTF 2010, he can beat Nadal. He did at USO 2008. He did get over his mental demons vis-a-vis Federer, so why not Nadal or Djokovic. Davydenko is another example of no fear as far as Nadal is concerned, so is Djokovic against Nadal.

I think it's too early to write off Dimitrov.

I believe he's still only 20?

bear in mind that Fed didn't win his first slam till almost 22.

At the moment Dimitrov looks a little bit lightweight but that's definitely an area (ie fitness and strength) that can be improved. He still looks like an incredible talent and is making steady progress up the rankings.

I thought his match against Tsonga at W was one of the best matches of the tournament.

emancipator wrote:I thought his match against Tsonga at W was one of the best matches of the tournament.

It was a good match.

http://www.wimbledon.com/en_GB/news/interviews/2011-06-23/201106231308860442087.html

emancipator wrote:I think it's too early to write off Dimitrov.

I believe he's still only 20?

bear in mind that Fed didn't win his first slam till almost 22.

At the moment Dimitrov looks a little bit lightweight but that's definitely an area (ie fitness and strength) that can be improved. He still looks like an incredible talent and is making steady progress up the rankings.

I thought his match against Tsonga at W was one of the best matches of the tournament.

I only caught the highlights of the Dimitrov/Tsonga match so pleased to hear it was a good one - the bits I saw were very exciting from both players, but then the highlights usually are!

Agree it is too soon to write Dimitrov off, and he is climbing the rankings steadily I guess. He is another, like dear Jo-Wilfrid, who can be so exciting one minute and such a flaky wotsit the next match Wonder if Grigor can withstand Tommy Haas in LA later today?

Murray "hero worships Rafa"? When he plays Nadal he plays mean as mean can be! Throws all kinds of disruptive stuff at him. I said before their Wimbledon semi that I was sure Murray would delay the match in some way (he had been given lots of advice prior to the match from the likes of McEnroe to do such things). Sure enough he "forgot something" and left the court. I've always thought it was Nadal who gives Murray too much respect and often plays odd nervy matches against him. He has Uncle Tony to blame.

hawkeye wrote:Murray "hero worships Rafa"? When he plays Nadal he plays mean as mean can be! Throws all kinds of disruptive stuff at him. I said before their Wimbledon semi that I was sure Murray would delay the match in some way (he had been given lots of advice prior to the match from the likes of McEnroe to do such things). Sure enough he "forgot something" and left the court. I've always thought it was Nadal who gives Murray too much respect and often plays odd nervy matches against him. He has Uncle Tony to blame.

Well I think we will have to agree to disagree. Murray has very good on court etiquette towards other players (if only he could stop berating himself and his box! )I know that he kept Nadal waiting at Monte Carlo, and at Wimbledon but he is playing Rafa's game, and I am glad that he has begun to do so. If the umpires seem to be impotent to get Nadal to abide by time regulations, the other players must ensure they do not allow themselves always to be at a disadvantage from the start because they are continually forced into Rafa's rhythm. Murray is not a disruptive player per se.

I do think he used to believe he would beat Rafa - he was superb against him AO 2010 pushing Rafa all around the court. Now it is Murray who does the most brutal retrieving in their games and while we know that matches between the two of them are likely to be competitive and exciting - I no longer feel confident that Murray has a 50/50 chance - and crucially, I don't think he does either.

Based on their Wimbledon matches I'd rate Harrison as having a better chance of being a top ten player than Dimitrov but it's early days. Harrison has only just turned 19.

Amongst the older players I'd agree that Tsonga ought to be the one challenging the top 3.

time please

"Well I think we will have to agree to disagree."

Can't say fairer than that...