RWC 2011 POOL D SPECULATION...!

RWC 2011 Pool D

South Africa - 85.24 3rd

Wales - 79.55 7th

Samoa - 74.55 10th

Fiji - 71.52 14th

Namibia - 61.43 20th

This is believed to be the closest pool at this years RWC, the lamented "pool of death".

Though currently the points difference and Ranking positions in Group B between England and Georgia are closer than here between SA and Fiji. This doesn't mean that any of the teams in this group has any easy matches, on current form this may well be the group that poses a few unexpected results.

SA currently on a poor run having only won one game in five since early November 2010. Their two matches previous to that they narrowly beat Ireland by two points and Wales by four. It is possible unless things improve for SA that any of Fiji, Samoa or Wales could beat them. SA who are nearly permanently ranked top three in the world not qualifying from the pool stages would be the biggest upset in the history of the RWC.

Saying that though the favourites of Pool D have to be current RWC holders South Africa, historically speaking, as they have only lost to Wales once and have never lost to any of the other teams in this group, they have won the world cup twice and are a notoriously tough, determined side. Their value is waning as the current Tri-Nations progresses, having lost convincingly in both their opening matches, but will surely have re-organised themselves for the RWC.

Second favourites on current form is a tricky call. Wales, though ranked a couple of places higher than Samoa and seven higher than Fiji, have a poor record against these sides at the RWC and in friendly competition. Samoa seem to be the form team of the three, having convincingly beaten Australia, who also the following weekend beat South Africa in Australia. Samoa and Fiji rarely get the opportunity to play teams ranked above them. They rarely get an opportunity to play any top nations at home which is something that I personally think is intrisically wrong in the global development of Rugby Union. This is reflected in their low IRB ranking.

Namibia hold up the bottom of the group and are the lowest ranked team in the RWC. They aren't an easy team to beat even if they appear to be minnows in the modern game. Though in their three appearances at the RWC since 99 the lowest narrowest loss has been 17-32 to Ireland, then ranked 5th in 07.

mm,

Def the hardest to call IMO, SA will be seen as clear favourites but I reckon having them first up is good for us.

In theory we (Wales) should be seen as 2nd faves BUT with our record (recent & past) against PI temas then god only knows what will happen.

I am just hoping that Gatland and Co don't get caught up in trying to play them at their own game and concentrate on our own game.

Aye BW I agree...

I think the group of players Wales currently have is more conservative than the Gareth Thomas era, and less likely to chance a running game. It might be boring rugby but it also might just work. Unfortunately defence will be the key to winning this group.

Obviously I would like to see Wales qualify from this group and do well at the RWC, but part of me as a fan of the sport really wants to see a PI team do really well, Semi Finals, and I think one of them can do it.

Like Pele said about soccer, someday soon an African Nation will lift the FIFA World Cup. Likewise someday soon a PI Nation should lift the RWC.

I've said elsewhere that Wales are dark horses in this tournament. There is a huge wealth of experience and quality in the Welsh squad and despite a lack lustre 6N Wales are certainly capable of upsetting SA in the 1st game. I think Wales are a more physical and structured side than in 2007 so I don't think they'll play into the pacific Islanders hands like they did before.

SA are not in great form but I would still expect them to top the group given their quality of players and experience but if they don't buck up their idea's then they could be caught out here.

Somoa look very strong and their win over Australia will give them real confidence. I wouldn't be surprised at all if they qualify for the KO stages at either Wales or SA's expense. Their encounters with SA are often brutal too so that should be a mouth watering one.

If Wales do qualify then their depth could be severly tested as they are up against 3 of the most physical sides in the competition.

Having seen what a shower of poo SA have been recently this group is looking more of a lottery as time goes on. Anyone who picks a win up against them will blwo the group wide apart. As with Englands greoup its going to be very interesting with every game counting.
4 teams for who qualification is not impossible.

Its going to be a wealth of surprises but i do expect a better SA to come out of all this, as do most Saffa followers

Peter Seabiscuit Wheeler wrote:Having seen what a shower of poo SA have been recently this group is looking more of a lottery as time goes on. Anyone who picks a win up against them will blwo the group wide apart. As with Englands greoup its going to be very interesting with every game counting.
4 teams for who qualification is not impossible.

Yeah if we take that inexperienced team to the World Cup, we may be in trouble.

But, alas, that isn't going to happen.

Remember, the 21 being secretely trained in a secret underground chamber near the platinum mines in rustenburg by Rassie erasmus, while they sent PDV on a much needed vacation?

SA will come through easily in this pool in what is by far the most interrsting pool. Samoa will have huge home support especially after their fans snapped up the tickets after the oz win. Fiji will be stronger when they get their NH players back. Wales are up against it here as both samoa and fiji will be targetting that match for qualifying.
Botj teams have a good number of professional players now.

SA with their "injured" back will be a different proposition to the Tri-N teams we've seen. The question is will they be match sharp, they may well be vulnerable in the opening game but if they get past that then they should qualify comfortably.

Wales, not sure what to make of them good front row, some good talent around the squad. On paper an argument could be made that they could top this group. Yet it doesn't feel like that and I think most non-Welsh are waiting for a banana skin for them to slip on. Best thing is that Samoa and Fiji could also dent each-other's aspirations.

Samoa and Fiji have both had their moments recently and I don't think will be in awe of Wales in any way. In fact I think they may be relishing the encounter.

Know nothing of Namibia. Are they going to surprise anyone?

Head says SA & Wales to qualify although don't see Wales going further than QF, but who knows. If Samoa or Fiji get a run of steam up though it would not be a monumental shock if one of them went to the QFs.

Big question is, with Wales’s form against the other teams in the group (1 win ever against the ‘Boks and an iffy record against PI teams), does Gatland go for the win first game out against SA, picking his strongest team and risk injuries to key players which might cost dearly against Fiji and Samoa? Having said all that the ‘Boks are seemingly going through a rough patch at the moment and may be, just may be, ripe for an upset.
Or does he play it like a canny German soccer manager, not care too much about the first game and focus on getting the results against the other three? After all Wales obviously want to go as far as possible in the competition, and Gatland knows, regardless of any contract, that he will probably go the way of Jenkins if we fail to qualify for the quarter finals.
I swing between three predictions:
My heart tells me that Wales will beat SA and top the group with SA second (wishful thinking)
My gut says SA first with Wales second.
My head says SA first and god only knows who will be second

SA will top this pool comfortably. They will bring a first rate A team to RWC. Samoa to come second as the upset.

Hi,Biltong .SO what was a rumour about 21 sic "injured " players in light rehabilitation mode.
Is NOW in fact a squad in intensive training under the real coach for the RWC.
In that Case SANZAR should look at this years and future 4Ns comps.
In any case a full strength SA side is a hard ask for any side especially in RWCs.

Despite SA's current trials and tribulations they will top this group.

Fiji/Samoa/Wales will fight out for 2nd. Might as well toss a 3-sided coin here.

emack2 wrote:Hi,Biltong .SO what was a rumour about 21 sic "injured " players in light rehabilitation mode.
Is NOW in fact a squad in intensive training under the real coach for the RWC.
In that Case SANZAR should look at this years and future 4Ns comps.
In any case a full strength SA side is a hard ask for any side especially in RWCs.

Hi Alan, I have heard so many different rumours from injured getting rehabilitation, to light training, some players have now been released to play Currie Cup, but John Plumtree says he is not going to use them.

One thing is certain, something is afoot, the core Boks are still MIA.

I agree SANZAR must find a new solution/calender