Final preview: Andy v. Novak, the two unconvincing finalists

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Neither player has looked particularly impressive, in fact I can't remember a recent tournament where two guys have played so under their form and yet managed to get to the finals. Could this scratchy play that we have seen in this tournament continue or are we set to have a great match like we had in Rome? Novak has certainly looked ripe for the picking in the last couple of matches and somehow monfils and berdy both let him off the hook, shame about berdy hurting himself before the open I just hope it isn't serious.

What will be the keys to victory? Does anybody want to make any predictions? I think it will be a tough match, I would favor Novak but he hasn't been playing well at the start of matches. Still I think he can return Andy's serve well, and that Andy has too many mental ups and downs in big matches. Novak I think will win in a tight one. In terms of the keys to victory, I think there are two major keys. First, when the two best returners and second serve returners on tour play it is crucial that whoever wins hits a high percentage of first serves. The player that has more trouble producing consistent high quality 1st serves will struggle in the match. Secondly, how well will Andy's forehand hold up in the big cross court exchanges with NOvak's forehand? If murray can hold his own in that department and serve at a high percentage of 1st serves he can win.

Djokovic looks a bit jaded in this tournament, it takes him awhile to get into his matches. He has to be feeling the pressure match after match, tournament after tournament with the expectations. But, i think playing Andy in another final maybe will cause him to focus. I look for Novak to win in a sloppy but tight match with a lot of breaks of serve.

bogbrush wrote:Uncalled for sportslover, I call just call it as it is.

I left Berdbrain out of it because actually who cares whether Berdy quits or not, he's not at the top of the game. In any case I don't recall him having a great history of bailing out but I do know Nole does, although as socal says he was on a teriffic run of 16 months without a quit. Pity to see the great streak broken.

His history of withdrawals has been based on a well documented history of respiratory problems. And in this match it was obvious to anyone with an iq of over 80 that he was hurting and that he was suffering from a sore shoulder, continuing to serve could possibly aggravate it. He might not have known how serious the injury was and didn't want to risk a couple of more service games.

Four dolly serves to finish the match. Four dolly serves to see the result properly in the record books.

Yeah, clearly a threat to life and limb.

wow wrote:laverfan, what are the retiring stats for Andy and Djoko?

Murray = 3.
Djokovic = 9.

bogbrush wrote:Four dolly serves to finish the match. Four dolly serves to see the result properly in the record books.

Yeah, clearly a threat to life and limb.

In Djokovic's defence, he could have retired after the first break of serve, but played on, to at least finish the first set.

Nadal @AO retired with Andy leading by two sets and 3-0 in the third set.

The decision to retire is not an easy one, and the individual player and the trainer are the best judges of such a decision.

Andy has a MS 1000. Happy to see that.

laverfan wrote:

bogbrush wrote:Four dolly serves to finish the match. Four dolly serves to see the result properly in the record books.

Yeah, clearly a threat to life and limb.

In Djokovic's defence, he could have retired after the first break of serve, but played on, to at least finish the first set.

Nadal @AO retired with Andy leading by two sets and 3-0 in the third set.

The decision to retire is not an easy one, and the individual player and the trainer are the best judges of such a decision.

Andy has a MS 1000. Happy to see that.

Concur with all sentiments above. I don't think it was particularly easy for spectators or Andy when Nadal struggled on in the final at Rotterdam 2 years ago - it is not particularly edifying seeing a player limp his way to defeat, or be unable to swing his arm properly. The Rotterdam final was like watching a car crash in agonisingly slow motion, and I can only presume that Rafa played on because it was a final, he has, after all, retired from AO 2010 since when he didn't seem to be in quite the same level of discomfort.

Now if it was a slam final (barring broken limbs) I think perhaps a player should 'limp on', but not now with one of the biggest tournaments of the year only next week. Feel sorry for the spectators, but it sounds like they were only cheated of 3 games in any event.

Murray knows he can beat Djokovic anyway - it would be hard for him if this was his only victory over Nole, but that is not the case.

Timeplease they weren't even cheated out of three games because as soon as Novak withdrew the clouds opened up and a torrential rainstorm came along that would have delayed the finish of that match for at least 3 hours. Most probably most of the fans wouldn't have come back for 10 or 15 minutes of action and the trophy presentation I know I wouldn't.

socal1976 wrote:Timeplease they weren't even cheated out of three games because as soon as Novak withdrew the clouds opened up and a torrential rainstorm came along that would have delayed the finish of that match for at least 3 hours. Most probably most of the fans wouldn't have come back for 10 or 15 minutes of action and the trophy presentation I know I wouldn't.

Exactly. I think it would have been better for Nole not to have attempted the final at all, so he is to be commended for trying to make a match of it. I didn't see it, so I can only make comments on what I have read, but I did think Nole looked done in earlier in the tournament - not surprising, he has played an awful lot of tennis lately. Hopefully his team will be able to really work on him to get him into fighting form before US.

I am not sorry for Murray either - I think this preparation might be brilliant for him this year - he has now had a decent number of games in preparation for US, but he is not overcooked so hopefully won't run out of gas as he has seemed to do in the last two years at the 'big event'

I just want to add that the conditions at Cincinatti were just awful. Low humidity must've of made if suffocating out there to say the least. Murray was jaded against Fish and Djokovic and Berdych looked jaded. Murray and Djokovic in the first set was like the last round in Rocky I. It was a straight slug fest and even Djokovic with a troublesome shoulder was still trading blows. May not have been the most breath-taking tennis, but I like seeing ugly tennis here and there.

Laverfan, thanks for the stats. Not entirely agree with bogbrush but we can see where he is coming from. Noone has ever had so many retirements as Djoko from the top echeleons of game (although Nadal is not far behind).

It's a tough job but hey someone has to do it. This is why we can see that Roger is the greatest and will remain greatest.

wow wrote:Laverfan, thanks for the stats. Not entirely agree with bogbrush but we can see where he is coming from. Noone has ever had so many retirements as Djoko from the top echeleons of game (although Nadal is not far behind).

It's a tough job but hey someone has to do it. This is why we can see that Roger is the greatest and will remain greatest.

I do understand BB's viewpoint, but the discretion of the player and the trainer is one that should be respected.

BTW, my intention was to provide a statistician's viewpoint without any bias towards one player or the other.