PGA Tour: The Tour Championship: Notes from the Ballwasher

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1).Where did that come from? Great win by Justin Rose at Cog Hill, and what a transformation in his fortunes in the last 18 months! From missing out on the 2009 Masters and US Open and being ineligible for St.Andrews, to three prestigious Tour victories, all at highly rated courses, whatever the players think. Recipe for success? It's all spelt out in the statistics:

2).Top 25 in all the main stat's for the BMW week, including:
Driving accuracy: 4th
Greens in regulation (gir): 3rd
Putts per gir: 5th
And, most impressive of all: Putts inside ten feet: 62 of 64.

3).Mea culpa: I'd really like Rose to be one of my favourite golfers but I just can't warm to him; whether it's the strut, the funny old accent which geographically must come from the Azores, his (phony?) anxious to please demeanour with the US media - all of whom love him - I don't know. But I posted a link on last week's notes about a Sean Foley / Justin Rose story and have to say that both have risen in my estimation, especially Inspector Rose.

4).Just Justin's luck for his win, and headlines, to be usurped in the American press by 16-y-o Lexi Thompson's runaway triumph on the LPGA Tour. It's only taken nine months, but now the LPGA has a real home-grown success story to publicise. And it looks like the LPGA will relent and not demand she goes thru' Q-School to play next year!

5).Back to stat's, and inspired (if that's the word) by a detailed analysis in last week's GolfWorld about the Tour's new "strokes gained - putting" stat. I won't go through every facet of the analysis but the bottom line is this:
The Tour tracks every putt attempted on every green, by every golfer, in every one of its tournaments. The results of any single golfer are then calculated against the field average. By that reckoning, Justin Rose was fifth last week in "strokes gained - putting". GolfWorld headlines its article: "The Stat That Doesn't Lie", and, if one accepts that, the findings are interesting. Although they only started publishing this stat during this season, apparently the PGA Tour has been accumulating data for eight years.

The annual leaders are, from 2004:
Adam Scott (shock, horror), Crane, Crane, Parnevik, Pavin, Donald, Donald, Stricker.
Among others featuring regularly in the top ten are Faxon, Chalmers, Woods, Zach Johnson, Jacobson, Snedeker and Baddeley.

GolfWorld compiled the cumulative stat's for 2008-2011 combined and show Luke Donald to be the best, gaining .869 shots per round - that's about seven strokes gained in eight rounds - against Mr.Average (call him Bill Haas for this year).
Top 4: Donald, Chalmers, Gay, Baddeley.
Worst 4: Joe Durant, Will MacKenzie, Daly and SCOTT (despite once being the best!)
Thought you'd like to know. And with Will MacKenzie being a favourite player to follow, I've seen first-hand how he's earned such ignominy.

6).The Presidents Cup automatic qualifiers were established this week, Toms, Mahan and Furyk squeaking in for the US, both Snedeker and Bill Haas close behind. US Media money is on Couples choosing Keegan Bradley as his final pick (after Woods). I'd choose Sneds, great putter.

7).Geoff Ogilvy clinched the final International spot, with Oosthuizen, Badds, Allenby and Singh missing out. Greg Norman wants to win this match at Royal Melbourne and any sentiment will go out the window as he makes his two choices. I'll be stunned if he doesn't select Melbourne-area guys Badds and Allenby.

8).And so to East Lake, a turn of the (19th/20th) century Bendelow design, much re-done, the last twice both by Rees Jones. Not sure how many re-dos of a Rees Jones re-do that Jones has done, but maybe he gets things right second time around. Regardless, Mickelson has won before and after so no complaints this week please Phil. And Stricker is expected to take his place having had a cortisone shot in the neck he sprained sticking it out last week about Cog Hill.

9).I listed a few weeks back the top ten beneficiaries of the FedEx Bonus Pool money that's been earned since its 2007 FedEx exception. These are the top ten European earners though last Sunday. Any surprises?
1).Garcia: $2.757M
2).Donald: $2.410 plus at least $175K this year.
3).Harrington: $1.160M
4).Casey: $1.027M
5).Rose: $637.5K plus at least $175K this year.
6).Pettersson: $619K
7).Laird: $607K
8).Poulter: $556K
9).Davis: $550K
10).Jacobson: $426K plus at least $175K this year.

10).No Champions Tour this week, but the Solheim Cup gets going in Ireland (complete with much media muttering about heated rivalries, especially involving Kim and Wie) and the Nationwiders are in California where Gary Christian and Russell Knox will be looking to enhance their 2012 PGA Tour eligibility and Greg Owen will be trying hard to join them. Sweden's Jonas Blixt is also in prime position to qualify.
Simultaneous with Messrs Cutler and Lewis embarking on their pro career, Harris English will be debuting on the Nationwide circuit.

Justin Rose opening the batting for Round 3 in Atlanta. Sunny skies, warming up nicely, not much breeze. So expect more low scores in Round 3.

Apropos my comment on Stricker earlier, it appears he'll complete this event if things don't deteriorate.

Terrible start from Luuuuuke, only one green hit in six holes, 27th of 30 in greens hit for the tournament.
He's let half the field back into the tournament, needs to resurrect his round, a 68 would be fine to go to battle on Sunday.

Birdie,
Got to build on that now. Luuuuke!

I hope Jason Day wins, he has been very consistent this year without winning an event. It feels like he has contested at the business end of nearly every big tournament. If it can't be JD, then I hope it's Luuuuke!

Redrage,
Trouble is, finishing still an issue for Day as well sas Donald: $9M+ in Tour earnings and just one limited field victory to show for it.
I'm hoping Luuuuuke comes out strong, but those front nine par 3's seem to give him fits.

Smart money would be on Donald, although he's hardly been a rock at finishing off tournaments this year.

Phil?!? Now that would be something.

I know it's a bit late, but provisionally Badds has moved now ahead of Yang, Els and Ishikawa in the owgr ranks, who are already on the PresCup team, so I'd hope Norman won't hesitate to pick him after yesterday's brilliant play... I wouldn't mind Badds getting this win if Luke can't...

The top ten on the Leaderboard have only six Tour wins between them this year so some knees are going to be trembling!
Still feel as if the owgr structure is grossly unfair at these no-cut events, rewarding guys who'll be just out for a superannuated walk in the park today with more credit no doubt than a top ten finish in Austria. Or probably Las Vegas next week.

In California, any British challenged has seemingly fizzled, but Sweden's Jonas Blixt takes the lead into Sunday - a top three finish would almost guarantee him a place on the 2012 PGA Tour.

I see The Mechanic going through the gears in Austria, too little too late?, but Harrington stuck in neutral. No doubt his glass will be half full though.

If the current leaderboard holds, projected order is:
1) Mahan 2) Simpson 3) Baddeley 4) Johnson 5) Donald 6) Rose 7) Kuchar

Dustin Johnson has played consistently well this year, but couldn't do that extra bit to finish majors. Can he do it here?

I like all the above except Baddeley.

Who is rooting for whom?

How was it yesterday, Leff?

Remember, Badds and Mahan can't both win, so DJ and Lukey etc are actually one place higher.

I fancy KJ or Luuuuke to win today.

Hi Kwini,

I was at East Lake on Fri and Sat. Now, back at home in Fla. I played and watched at Doral, which I like immensely. Watching at East Lake wasn't quite as enjoyable. Not sure if it's the course layout or the crowds or the atmosphere; probably, the last reason.

Why do you say Mahan and Baddeley can't win the FedEx cup and 10 mill? If Mahan wins this final event, doesn't he beat Simpson by 40 points? (assuming the current positions remain the same)

Hi Leff,
Atmosphere at East Lake certainly didn't project itself through the TV screen, everything looked a bit flat which is not untypical for a contrived event. I'm not necessarily overly against the current FedEx structure, but it does risk diminishing the sense of occasion for the prestigious Tour Championship.

Just saying that Badds and Mahan can't both win, either one or the other and anything but a win would relegate them significantly in the FedEx points, perhaps even out of the top eight.

Things seemed going well for DJ, but he bagged a double bogey on the 10th. To win the Cup, he needed to get to 4th spot or at least 5th. Doesn't seem likely now. So near yet so far as has been the case for DJ at important events.

Webb Simpson is self-destructing. He just needed to stay better than #19 to keep his chances alive and he can't seem to do that!

Webb Simpson and DJ can't seem to handle pressure. Both are pretty much out of contention for the Cup. Simpson is a particularly sad case because all his need was to finish +2 for the day, and he is at +5 now.

KJ, Baddeley, Mahan, and Donald still in contention.

Luuuuke is one over par on East Lake's front nine this week, seven under on the back.

Come on Luke, your time has come!

KJ double-bogeyed on the 8th!

Bill Haas has joined the list of 4 or 5 players still in contention for the Cup.

Im really rooting for Donald here................feel a bit sorry for Simpson(a small bit!).............it has become a bit of a disadvantage to be the points leader going into the last week with the fatigue of having done so well the previous 3 weeks...................don't think the format is balanced enough as yet...........

Isn't it interesting that if Baddeley wins this and Webb Simpson stays at #22, the latter wins by 5 points (2745 vs 2740)?

There are so many players in the middle that are helping Simpson stay at #22, but he could help himself with another birdie. He has recovered from +5 for the day to +3 with back-to-back birdies.

I know he did really well until this week to get in that position, but if Simpson wins FedexCup after a sub-average performance and finishing close to the bottom of the pile this week, that can't look or feel too good in the end (not talking about the 10 mil $, those are always going to feel good to him)...

Luke is hitting it crooked again, looks like he's run out of gas. He can't scramble is way to victory. Disappointing.

PD,
Have to disagree with you there..........the format can be unfair on the points leader going in..........if Baddley wins and Simpson holds on, fair play to him, and PRAISE the LORD!!!!

If Baddeley wins, and Simpson stays at #22, the latter wins 10 mil.

On the other hand, if Bill Haas wins, and Simpson remains at #22, Haas wins 10 mil and Simpson finishes #3.

All at the top are playing without confidence. The day has been interesting for all the permutations, but the quality of play is disappointing.

JC, I was referring more about how it feels if that happens, if it's fair or not is another argument... To win the highest prize in golf (by a long shot) without really being seen as playing your best and contending and being at the top of the LB in those last moments, to me it doesn't feel great...

...or if we look at how things are at this very moment... Mahan would win 10 mil bucks, by NOT wining the final tournament AND after a pretty average season by any elite golfer's standards...

World #1 hardly looking like such. He'll need some flat stick magic going in.

$10 Million can do a lot of things to a swing.

Go Mahan or Haas.

Strange situation for Webb Simpson. He has finished his final round at +2 and is 22/30, and 2745 FedEx points.

DJ, Rose, and Kuchar are out of contention for 10 mil. Luke doesn't look threatening.

Simpson must now hope for Baddeley to win because if the latter wins, he will have 2740 points, and by virtue of 5 points, Simpson can win 10 mil.

Simpson can't win the FedEx Cup and 10 mil if any of the following win.

Mahan winner = 2800 points
Haas winner = 2760
Howell winner = 2750
Jason Day winner = 3100
KJ Choi winner = 2945

Luuuuke just needs to birdie in, two down, three to go. Absolutely, positively!

Bill Haas looks to be the most confident player on the course right now, leading by two strokes.

Luke can finish #2 and win the FedEx cup (1800+1500 = 3300 points).

Even with #3 finish, he has a chance (1800+1000 = 2800); he can beat Haas (2760), Howell (2750), Mahan (2800), KJ (2945), and Jason Day (3100).

PD ? Mahan cannot win the Fed Ex without victory here................

This Fed Ex thing is more of a test of endurance than anything.......there is a case for the leader after the Deutche Bank taking the BMW off to prepare for Atlanta................

Maybe Donald still has a shot...............-2 for the last 3????

Given the gazillions these guys have, and are going to win anyway, I can't see why the $10M is such a knee trembler - they're all playing with house money anyway.

Come on Luuuke, it would make a mockery of Play-Offs but come on Luuuuke!!!!!

I like Jason Day's attitude. He has kept trying to win this. Putting luck has deserted him though.

We'll get a reprise of Luke's 3-putt avoidance now. No 3-putts in about 420 holes, best since Tour stats recorded them in 2003.

kwinigolfer wrote:We'll get a reprise of Luke's 3-putt avoidance now. No 3-putts in about 420 holes, best since Tour stats recorded them in 2003.

On Thursday, Bruce Critchley of Sky informed us it was 50 rounds without a 3 putt, then corrected himself and said it was 50 tournaments........wrong and wrong again!!

Number One just showed why he's Number One. Now if he can just hole that putt.
He's already got about 200 points more than anyone else this year. Not Tigeresque, just Lukey.

Doesn't look like a birdie will be enough though...pity,,,,,,,,,,,,

with Haas hitting a wild tee shot on the 18th, and Luke having a birdie chance, things are getting really interesting for viewers and rather confusing for the players.

There you go, Luke has a birdie, and will probably be just 1 shot behind when Haas finishes the last hole.

Luke is guaranteed to win 10 mil if he finished #2 or solo #3.

Ok so Danald now needs Mahan & Day to drop one shot each and he is the winner??? Maybe??

If Luke finishes #2, he will win 10 mil. If there are two guys ahead of him, solo third spot is unlikely, and he might miss out.

KJ Choi is not out yet with that spectacular and rather lucky long putt.

He definitely needs Jason Day to miss this putt, and for Mahan to bogey the last, assuming he pars the 17th.

If Haas and Mahan finish as the top two, does Luke still win the FedEx cup with a three-way tie for the third place? How many points are given if three players are tied for the third?

So, with Haas and Mahan in a play-off for the championship, Luke seems to be out of contention for 10 mil as two others players are tied with him for the third spot. He could have won if he were solo at #3.

Apparently Luke misses out by 10 points if Haas wins, a bit more if Mahan Hunts.

Luke (2567) finished behind Webb Simpson (2745).

Luke got only 767 points for his tied third place.

Brilliant rescue by Haas on the 2nd play-off hole.

Nice drama here!

OK, perhaps the earlier hypothesis was assuming a Mahan bogey in regulation.

I'm not sure it speaks well to the FedEx points system that the winner will be a golfer with no wins previously this season.

In case you guys watching on US tv didn't hear, Butch Harmon just announced on Sky that Dustin Johnson's caddy, Joe LaCava, is now going to be caddying for Tiger Woods.
New caddie needed for DJ