Nole Wins 2012 Grand Slam, A Preposterous Thought?

Although not finished yet, tennis 2011 has been marked by one man - Novak Djokovic.

Let's be honest , how many of you could have possibly envisage it this time last year.I know I couldn't and am pretty sure Novak couldn't either.

His magnificent year has been unravelling itself slowly, taking out sharp bends and corners, almost undercover: first it was shedding the one-slam wonder tag at AO, then it was winning IW and Miami back-to back, then it was beating Nadal on clay, twice; by then we had the Streak, then Nole became number one, then the Dream was completed: he won Wimbledon.

Did he stop there?
No. He went on to win Rogers cup, followed by Cincy final and to top it all he wan USO, in SOME style.

Yes, he has been burning his candle at both ends and his body is paying for it at the moment. However, I'm pretty sure he'll recover from 2011 thoroughly in the off season and come back hungry as ever in 2012.

For me as a Novak fan, that is fantastic news.

Asked by it's-never-enough type of journalist after his USO win whether he could go on and win all 4 slams next year, Nole did not exclude the possibility.

A lot of things can happen between now and this time next year, we could see another player do a Nole; perhaps Delpo will hit some crazy form and nick a slam, perhaps Murray, prhaps somebody else.

But, what if Nole does the impssible....crazy , isn't it?

With the convergence of surfaces, the lack of depth in the mans game, the decline of Federer without young new players coming through, yes it's possible.

bogbrush wrote:With the convergence of surfaces, the lack of depth in the mans game, the decline of Federer without young new players coming through, yes it's possible.

BB!!!!!

lack of depth, come ooon...

There may not be the depth in the men's game that there has been in the past, but the quality at the top more than makes up for it - and makes it even harder to envisage a Grand Slam.
Let's face it, this was probably the year for Nole to do it, but Fed bt him at RG and almost - should have - done so at USO.
What we have to take into account also is the sheer difficulty in working out just which of the top four will emerge as the outstanding player. Few would have predicted Nole as the 2011 stand-out guy - it was gonna be Rafa who cleaned up. Similarly, in 09 it was gonna be Rafa's year but Fed won two Slams and was runner up in the other. Always fun, though, to talk of slams but as long as Rafa's around the French is always going to be the difficult one to win.

Unlike Federer at his peak there's no one slam where Djoko's glaringly weaker than in the others and his run this year shows that it's possible. That notwithstanding I think it's extremely unlikely, not least because of what it's taken out of him this year. Also, because it really is a hugely difficult acheivement - he did not even make all 4 finals last year (only Fed's done that of the current crop).

He's got a much better chance of doing a male version of the Serena slam; were I a fan of his I'd focus my attentions on that, it would be one hell of an achievement.

sirfredperry wrote:There may not be the depth in the men's game that there has been in the past, but the quality at the top more than makes up for it - and makes it even harder to envisage a Grand Slam.
Let's face it, this was probably the year for Nole to do it, but Fed bt him at RG and almost - should have - done so at USO.
What we have to take into account also is the sheer difficulty in working out just which of the top four will emerge as the outstanding player. Few would have predicted Nole as the 2011 stand-out guy - it was gonna be Rafa who cleaned up. Similarly, in 09 it was gonna be Rafa's year but Fed won two Slams and was runner up in the other. Always fun, though, to talk of slams but as long as Rafa's around the French is always going to be the difficult one to win.

Yes, I think 2012 is going to be one very, very exciting year: Murray will be desperate to win a slam more than ever, then there's re-emerging dark horse Delpo, Nadal will want to shake off Nole's ownership and Federer is running out of time, so am sure he'll give it his ultimate shot, particularly at the Olympics, which is why he is winding his 2011 down already.
I'd be very surprised if Nole plays in China this autumn. The rest of the season will be all to do with taking the best possible start for 2011.

So with all this in the game, I reckon a grand slam in 2012 is one truly mad thought, and if it does come true, I'll go mad, too.

And let's not forget he was 2 MPs down to limit his slams count to 2. He can't keep winning those matches all the time.

Tenez wrote:And let's not forget he was 2 MPs down to limit his slams count to 2. He can't keep winning those matches all the time.

Oh Tenez.....

I'm off to the gym now, I need to keep myself fitter than the opposition

I agree with BB & Tenez, it's possible but the odds are heavily stacked against him. If he wins the Aussie Open, I think that we can seriously consider he will get to 2 or maybe 3 slams for the year. Then the question is if he will win all of them. Djoko has become less erratic during matches since Wimbledon but I think a few losses could easily see that return hence why I think winning the Aussie Open is key for him, it will keep his confidence high and let's be honest, that's what saved him @ the USO semi final against Fed (the magical lucky shot which shattered Fed's own confidence).

What that indicates to me is how close players come to victory and defeat and especially for Djokovic, confidence is crucial, yes he might have improved his fitness and serve but on that match point, neither of those things decided that match, it was the confidence that did (or going for it and swinging mad as Fed would say). Right now, I'd say his chances stand @ about 10% of winning all 4, if he wins the Aussie, I'd say 50%. Those are favourable odds, given absolutely no-one has gone from winning 3 slams for the first time to go on and win another 3 the following year (let alone all 4).

Certainly some of Novak's form this year means that a 2012 Grand Slam must be a possibility. But the thing is that is what everyone was really predicting for Rafa in 2011 as Federer had dropped off considerably and neither Djokovic or Murray looked as if they were going to step up to the plate.

I tend to think he won't have it in him physically to dominate next year as he has this - it was a fairly dramatic collapse in DC and shows just how much this year has cost him.. Let's not forget what one slam cost Delpo, winning that the way he did.

Bottom line is, he certainly has the talent (as did Federer and Nadal), but I think if next year is anything like this year it is wiser to predict looking at form before each separate major.

time please wrote:Bottom line is, he certainly has the talent (as did Federer and Nadal), but I think if next year is anything like this year it is wiser to predict looking at form before each separate major.

It's always easier to assess form closer to the event! I'm not going to shout 'kop out' though, because I agree with most of what you say.

barrystar wrote:

time please wrote:Bottom line is, he certainly has the talent (as did Federer and Nadal), but I think if next year is anything like this year it is wiser to predict looking at form before each separate major.

It's always easier to assess form closer to the event! I'm not going to shout 'kop out' though, because I agree with most of what you say.

But you're quite right barry - I was 'kopping out'! Actually, just like in racing it is the only sensible and sane thing to do if you were putting your money where your mouth is.

Sitting now, I think Djoker has a good chance. Who do you think could stop him - only Nadal at clay and maybe Fed somewhere... so thats basically 2-3 matches where he needs to be at his absolute best.

Ofcourse, there are many things unknown like emergence of a new player, Delpo and Murray surge etc etc but I, for one, who thought this would never be possible, have started thinking that this is entirely possible.

If he comes at his absolute best in those couple of tough matches which he could face out of 28, he has a good chance. The chasing field is hopeless - there are Tsonga, Gasquet, Dog etc, all wonderful players but they look more and more hopeless in trying to put a good run lasting 7 matches.

It would have been wonderful to watch this Nole against Fed of 2004-07 or even uncertain vis-a-vis Nadal of 2008 but if this is the Novak turning up for 2012, others have no game/stamina/strength to match it. Please show me a young Fed or Sampras budding somewhere......

Most likely won't happen although I think he is pretty likely to win 2 or 3 slams myself. A very difficult ask, and one has to wonder if this year he didn't invest too much blood, sweat and tears. I think if he has good season healthwise he definitly will be a threat. Federer out of the top players gave him the most trouble although Novak accumulated a 4-1 record against Roger, but if Fed's game continues to slowly degrade a little then Nadal doesn't seem to being providing as much as a matchup problem for novak. I really think the emergence of murray that we have been waiting for could determine it. If Murray comes back better next year than this year then I think it will be very tough.

"If Murray comes back better next year than this year then I think it will be very tough. "

It's been long time since Murray beat Federer or Nadal in a slam....

True Nitb, but I am making a bit of a forecast in the future. I think Murray will be desperate to get over the hump as his window is now slowly closing and I think he does have the talent to pose some problems for novak. nadal seems to not know how to challenge Novak, and fed keeps getting older, so if there is a corner were we should look for a challenge from in 2012 and 2013 maybe it is Murray.

noleisthebest wrote:"If Murray comes back better next year than this year then I think it will be very tough. "

It's been long time since Murray beat Federer or Nadal in a slam....

He has not to date ever beaten Federer in a slam - though, if he is good enough to remain in contention that surely must turn around in Murray's favour in the year he turns 25 and Fed turns 31!

Long time since he has beaten Nadal certainly and the Murray who faced Nadal at Wimbledon and US looked so different from the Murray who beat him in 2008 and 2010 at AO in terms of his belief and body language. RG was a good effort against the undisputed king of clay, so I am not drawing any conclusions from that.

Not wishing it on him but I reckon he won't be able to stay injury free. I think Nadal will win a couple next year and there'll be signs of a transition to the next generation.

He has a small chance but the stars would really have to align for him to win the lot. The slow build-up of pressure would explode if he won the first 3.

I'm not so sure that he'll come back 'as hungry as ever' next year. He's achieved so many goals so quickly this year that it may have an effect. Still, he has more chance than anyone else of pulling it off.

I think Nadal will win a couple next year and there'll be signs of a transition to the next generation.

Well there should be signs, considering how long it's been since someone younger has made the semi's or final (barring the fluke from Delpo). I also agree with Nadal winning a couple (if he isn't playing Djokovic in the final).

The good thing is that the FO is after a long succession of TMS where Djoko and Nadal will kill each other...then maybe with a bit of luck Tsonga and Federer will reap the fruits and play the finals of the FO and Wimbledon.

Isn't Tsonga usually rubbish on clay? Samprasitis

If he writes off a few masters and smaller tournaments and just concentrates on peaking for the slams then he could do it.

Federer was the master of peaking for the slams a few years ago. I wonder if Djokovic is that sort of player though...

Guest82 wrote:If he writes off a few masters and smaller tournaments and just concentrates on peaking for the slams then he could do it.

Federer was the master of peaking for the slams a few years ago. I wonder if Djokovic is that sort of player though...

Nole is a very quick learner. Next year will be fascinating from that point of view alone.

Would be fascinating.

But 2011 seemed like the best year for Djokovic to do the CYGS.

Very difficult to have just 2 losses by September next year.

Tenez wrote:The good thing is that the FO is after a long succession of TMS where Djoko and Nadal will kill each other...then maybe with a bit of luck Tsonga and Federer will reap the fruits and play the finals of the FO and Wimbledon.

Djoko seems to have a sensible schedule this year and peaks at the slams. Nadal also peaks at the slams. Even Murray peaks at the slams these days, hence why the top 4 keep making almost all the SF at all the slams.

Djokovic has impressed this season, no doubt. Although his success has stemmed mostly from the laughable quality of hard and grass courts, he did manage to win 3 of the 4 masters on the surface of kings - a superb feat.

Can he win the calendar slam next year? Unlikely. Djokovic puts too much effort into winning the rubbish tournaments as well as the season of giants. The season of clay. One must centre their entire year around this epic 2 monthly marathon if they are to be truly successful and Djokovic may just tire himself out again. He almost pulled it off this year, but the legendary battlefield of Roland Garros proved just too much for a man who tried to win it all. Hopefully he shall see the light and boycott sideshows like the Australian Open and Wimbledon to focus on true sport.

SAHARA STALLION wrote:Djokovic has impressed this season, no doubt. Although his success has stemmed mostly from the laughable quality of hard and grass courts, he did manage to win 3 of the 4 masters on the surface of kings - a superb feat.

Can he win the calendar slam next year? Unlikely. Djokovic puts too much effort into winning the rubbish tournaments as well as the season of giants. The season of clay. One must centre their entire year around this epic 2 monthly marathon if they are to be truly successful and Djokovic may just tire himself out again. He almost pulled it off this year, but the legendary battlefield of Roland Garros proved just too much for a man who tried to win it all. Hopefully he shall see the light and boycott sideshows like the Australian Open and Wimbledon to focus on true sport.

Hello & welcome SS,

I'm sure I'd remember a name like yours from 606; since I can't were you on 606 and if so, under which name

SAHARA STALLION wrote:Djokovic has impressed this season, no doubt. Although his success has stemmed mostly from the laughable quality of hard and grass courts, he did manage to win 3 of the 4 masters on the surface of kings - a superb feat.

Can he win the calendar slam next year? Unlikely. Djokovic puts too much effort into winning the rubbish tournaments as well as the season of giants. ...

Well Djokovics year (2011) was set up by a) the Serbian Davis Cup win in late 2010, b) his new diet and c) his new maturity and mental focus. It was very much a year in "transition" where he focussed on gaining superiority over the rest of the field and the No. 1 ranking.

Now that he has demonstrated to himself he has "mastered" Nadal and more or less everyone else I think the 2012 focus will be on the slam tournaments and in particular the French Open as well as defending Wimbledon (etc?). That is, I am certain next year he will cut down on the effort between slam tournaments.

ps He is due to get married shortly and I don't know whether this will have any affect on his 2012 performances on the tennis courts.