H-cup Pool 4

Is Pool 4 a group of death, how do you see it panning out?

In my veiw there is rarely a thing as an easy group in the H-cup anymore, and of this years Draw, Pool 1, Pool 4 and pool 5 could all be described as groups of death.

Pool 4
Leicester Tigers
Clermont
Ulster
Aironi

Ok it does have an Italian team in it (and the weaker of the 2 Italian sides), but the 3 other teams are all very good teams.

Think it's fair to say that only the Group winner will get through to the next round and runner up will be lucky to get an Amlin Cup spot.

I can see all 3 of the big teams winning at home, and losing away. The group will be decided by Who gets the most BPs. Picking up LBPs and getting winning BPs home and away against Aironi, will be Key.

An away win against one of other big 3, will put someone in pole position.

I see it Finishing

Ulster (suprise Tigers at Welford road)
Clermont
Leiscester Tigers
Aironi

Think Tigers may be in for a surprise in Welford road, and since French teams don't travel well in Europe see Ulster being the ones to do it.
Wouldn't be surprised if Ulster lost one at home either.
Clermont must be favourites to finish top.
Or it may just come down to bonus points.

Whats your thoughts on this group?

I don't think this will be a group of death. Aironi should be giving 10 points to each of the other teams. Usually 20 points will see you through (I think, must check that out) so the a third of the games for each team will provide half their required points. It will come down to bonus points and really LBP at welford rd games or in Clermont.
I think Clermont get their home wins with 1 try bonus point against either Ulster or Leicester. I'd think they might turn over Ulster at Ravenhill (sacrilige I know but they are used to Irish teams from recent years) but not score 4 tries and they get a LBP at Welford Rd. So 24 points.
I think Leicester don't get the try bonus point against either Ulster or Clermont at home but pick up LBP for their losses away. So 20 points.
I think Ulster get a try bonus point against Leicester at home and a LBP away to Leicester along with a LBP at home to Clermont. So 17 points.
Aironi to be under 4 points by the end of it all.

But if my guesses were accurate, the bookies would be out of business so the above is never gonna happen.

As a Tigers fan I'd be very disappointed if we were to lose to Ulster and Welford Rd. The midfield is a bit under strength at the minute but the forward pack is improved on the one that beat Saints around the park in the AP Semi and that was the same Saints pack that took Ulster to the cleaners. I know Ulster have strengthened with Afoa and the return of Ferris but Tigers now have their captain back, a better hooker and an openside.

The HEC is all about winning your home games, giving the group whipping boy a going over home and away and then hunting out LBP where possible away against the two others. That's what I'll be wanting from Tigers. We need a top spot finish to help fill the coffers with a Qtr Final at WR and make sure we actually reach a semi final (keep the HEC ranking nice and high).

not the group of death and very likely 2 of this group going through.

if Clermont new players adapt to the team quickly, they could be devastating. still think it will be a close affair between them, Ulster and the tigers : all of them should prevail at home so they key will probably be away LPBs and making sure they get 10 points vs aironi.

this is what Clermont have in its squad (amongst others): just to show they still have quality cover from 1 to 15 and actually a better and more experienced team despite some good players leaving.

full back : Lee Byrne (replaces the always injured baby) / Buttin (very promising home grown young player)
wings : Wesley Fofana (international material) , Malzieu , Sivivatu Sitiveni
centres : Aurelien Gougerie, Regan King (replaces pisi I guess), Gonzalo Canale, Mark Bennet
FH : Brock James - David Skrela
SH : Parra
backrow : Julien Bardy,Julien Bonnaire, Alexandre Lapandry, Elvis Vermeulen, Gerhard Vosloo (fantastic SA player they signed from brive this summer to replace lauaki).
2nd row : Jamie Cudmore, Nathan Hines (another great signing, way better than privat), Jacquet, Julien Pierre
hooker : Kayser (replaces ledesma), ti'i paulo
props: Domingo - zirakashvili - do you really need other props when you have those 2

Not to mention Anthony Floch as well. It's a side packed with hard hitting talent. I'm sure Rougerie has an R at the front .

A backline of Parra, James, Sitiveni, Canale, Rougerie, Malzieu and Byrne/Floch is pretty damn good. Forward pack is not to be messed with either. I'm just pleased that we should have Tait and Manu back by the time these boys rock into town. Ben Youngs is supposedly back by the Ulster game as well which is a relief as at the minute 20 year old Sam Harrison is holding down the fort and doing a sterling job but the HEC is a big step up.

It's a good squad but Tigers are looking pretty strong this season not the internationals are back;
Props; Ayerza*, Stanko, Cole*, Castro*, White*, Brookes
Hookers; Chuter*, Youngs, Hawkins - the weakest position
Locks; Parling, Deacon*, Skivington, Slater, Kitchener
Backrow; Croft*, Salvi*, Waldrom*, Mafi*, Woods
SH; Youngs*, Young, Harrison
FH; Flood*, Staunton*, Ford
Centres; Allen*, Twelvetrees, Manu*, Smith
Wing; Hamilton*, Agulla*, Tuilagi*, Tait*
FB; Murphy*, Morris

*- denotes international

tend to forget how Tigers are strong indeed. if both teams are on form it could be a hell of a game.

Think we can add a string Ulster Squad

Props John Afoa*, Tom Court*, Callum Black, Jerry Cronin, Declan Fitzpatrick, Paddy McAllister
Hooker; Rory Best*, Nigel Brady, Andy Kyriacou
Lock; Johann Muller*, Dan Tuohy*, Tim Barker , Lewis Stevenson, Neil McComb
Backrow; Stephen Ferris*, Pedrie Wannenburg*, Chris Henry*, Mike McComish, Willie Faloon, Robbie Diack
SH; Ruan Pienaar*, Paul Marshall, Ian Porter
OH; Ian Humphreys, Paddy Jackson
Centre; Paddy Wallace*, Darren Cave*, Ian Whitten*, Luke Marshall, Nevin Spence
Wing: Andrew Trimble*, Simon Danielli*, Craig Gilroy
Fullback: Adam D'Arcy

Maybe not as strong a squad as the, others, but a very strong 1st XV, and all but 6 can play for Ireland

Ian Humphreys still not capped? That is a bit silly in my opinion he is a decent enough fly half who can get a backline moving I'd have at least given him a run out or two in case he ever needed to cover for injury.

Tigers have a strong squad but you might be pleased to know that the players likely to miss the first game against Ulster are; Allen, Manu, Tait, Brookes and Young whilst doubts remain over Deacon, Twelvetrees and Youngs.

I think this pool is pretty clear-cut. Specially with Aironi in it.
1. ASM
2. Tigers

Apologies for lack of deep analysis here. But, I don't think it's needed in this case.

Going to be close. But after years of underperforming in the HC, I think Tigers are poised to have a big campaign. Not a reflection on the other teams, but I think Tigers are going to start playing real good Rugby once their Internationals settle back in. So, for the HC this season, the best way to deal with them is to beat them now. If they get through to January without any HC losses, it will be tough to get them.

Just to point out a wee result today. I think ASM may be starting to gel a bit. As if they weren't gelled enough already.

ASM 41-0 Biarritz

http://www.planetrugby.com/story/0,25883,9989_7273506,00.html

Thats a wee result?
More like a wee bitchslap, eh mate?

Phhok yeah Doctor. They scare me more than anyone else in it. Even Toulouse.

Shoulda paid Hinesy for another year, Gib? Might come back to but you on the eirse, that one?

Thats my worry As. He is a massive loss. He was our Enforcer. I hope Sykes, backed up by Toner, can fill the gap he left.

Really want to avoid Clermont at all costs. Until the Final that is...

They are my 2nd favs to win the whole deal.

Domingo injured his right knee - out for at least 6 month - end of the season. really unlucky considering he was coming out of long term injury on his left knee. terrible blow for clermont (and to a lesser extent for france).

Clermont have gone top of the T14 and look the strongest French side. Historically they have not treated away matches with a huge amount of respect - but that may change. Domingo's injury is a huge blow to them.

Ulster have strengthened their squad and will be hoping to perform better away than they have in recent years, while maintaining "Fortress Ravenhill".


I reckon two teams will qualify from this group as Aironi are the easiest team in the competition.

Ulster have the hardest start to the competition with Clermont at home then Tigers away.

Tigers have the easiest with Aironi away then Ulster at home.

One team will get an away win against a non-italian side - whoever does it will win the Group with the runner up getting a best runner up spot.

My gut feel is Clermont to win teh group with Tigers second.

This may not be the group of death according to some pundits on here, but I would be a hell of a lot happier without Clermont in our group.

I would hope to expect 10 pts from the Italians and 5/6 pts from Ulster (a non BP win at home and a LPB away) putting us on 15/16.

If we can pull off a home win against Clermont (sorry to sound negative but when you look at the team they have it is quite scary and these are one of my top tips to win the HEC this year) we should qualify.

An win away against Ulster would definitely be a bonus for us.

Remarkably, you can get 11/1 odds for a Clermont HC win - prob worth at least an each-way punt, even with the loss of Domingo Tigers at 15/2, Leinster at 9/2, Toulouse at 5/1 and Munster and Saints at 10/1

The way Leicester turned things around against Sale was pretty ominous. I was thinking that they might struggle this year, but now I think the HC might become even more of a focus.

Will depend heavilly on who Tigers get back from injury as the centre stores are looking frighteningly bare at the moment. Ulster have a good set of backs and we will need more than a Smith/Agulla partnership can offer.

Thankfully Manu and Twelvetrees should be back before Clermont rock into town as Canale and Rougerie is one hell of a centre partnership. I'm confident Tigers have a front row to match anybodies and the second row is looking pretty damn good at the minute but the backrow hasn't gelled yet and a lot of pressure is being put on young Sam Harrison at 9. He's doing a good job but the big HEC games might be too much for him, hopefully Youngs will be back by then.

Aironi arn't the pushover they were last year, look how they did away from home against a pretty much first team munster team at the weekend!

Have to say that those teams think they will get try bonus points away in Aironi will be suprised when they don't get them. Don't think Aironi will win any games, but to get a winning bonus point there is still a hard ask.

If you don't take them serious they can end up punishing you, Biarritz learned that in the surprise of last year.

Kingshu wrote:Aironi arn't the pushover they were last year, look how they did away from home against a pretty much first team munster team at the weekend!

Have to say that those teams think they will get try bonus points away in Aironi will be suprised when they don't get them. Don't think Aironi will win any games, but to get a winning bonus point there is still a hard ask.

If you don't take them serious they can end up punishing you, Biarritz learned that in the surprise of last year.

Biarritz still got 2 points from that defeat.

No team should take any team lightly - but good sides in the HC should still be looking to get 10 points from them.

I think Ulster were doomed the day the draw was made. I can't see them getting into the knock outs of the Heineken or the Amlin.

LondonTiger wrote:Clermont have gone top of the T14 and look the strongest French side. Historically they have not treated away matches with a huge amount of respect - but that may change. Domingo's injury is a huge blow to them.

Ulster have strengthened their squad and will be hoping to perform better away than they have in recent years, while maintaining "Fortress Ravenhill".


I reckon two teams will qualify from this group as Aironi are the easiest team in the competition.

Ulster have the hardest start to the competition with Clermont at home then Tigers away.

Tigers have the easiest with Aironi away then Ulster at home.

One team will get an away win against a non-italian side - whoever does it will win the Group with the runner up getting a best runner up spot.

My gut feel is Clermont to win teh group with Tigers second.

Tiger,
Having played them 3 times in this comp over the last 2 years, believe me, ASM give 100% in every game. Home or Away. We were blessed at the RDS in the QF's 2 years ago. Brock James had a mare with the boot and missed 3 DG's - he normally would have nailed. And a host of pens. Only for that - we were done for. They had us on the rack for 70% of that game. Had them again last year in our Pool and they beat us in their house, but we got a LBP. We then hit top gear and took them out in a huge return game at Lansdowne.

But, these guys will be looking at 8 pts from Tigers. Depend on that. Ye will need to be at your very best to stop them. And then some. I think Tigers are one of the few teams in Europe who can. Id say they will win it and ye will be 2nd. Ulster will have a big say at Ravenhill. They don't tend to lose there. I believe that their games, against the 2 favs, will decide this.

Kingshu wrote:Aironi arn't the pushover they were last year, look how they did away from home against a pretty much first team munster team at the weekend!

Have to say that those teams think they will get try bonus points away in Aironi will be suprised when they don't get them. Don't think Aironi will win any games, but to get a winning bonus point there is still a hard ask.

If you don't take them serious they can end up punishing you, Biarritz learned that in the surprise of last year.

Apologies if it comes across as if we are sweeping the italian threat under the carpet, I'm sure we do take them seriously and their results in the Robocelt will have got peoples attention. But we do have a good history of results (that's a dangerous phrase is it not?) against them and would go into it with some degree of confidence.

I think winning T14 changed Clermont's mindset a little. Until that they often picked a completely different side for away games - still strong though.

Two years ago they were possibly the strongest side in the tournament and if they had tried to get a win at Welford Road and Liberty Stadium rather than appearing happy with a losing BP they would have had a home 1/4 final. Even then as you said they should have won the 1/4 final - except for Brock James meltdown.

"But we do have a good history of results (that's a dangerous phrase is it not?) against them and would go into it with some degree of confidence."

I don't think Leicester have played Aironi before!

results from 2 years ago against Italian teams can be disgarded, Its like counting results against Swansea, when playing the Ospreys, since they we regional they are stronger. Abelt they are still the weakest in the H-cup, but are no where near as poor as the clubs teams that used to get into the H-cup from Italy are.

I'll bet a fiver that one of either Clermont, Ulster or Tigers will fail to take the full 10 points from Aironi, and that may go a way in deciding the group.

Kingshu,

I was referring to Italian teams in general but as you infer, things do change.

to be honest though

I think everyone has a good record again the Italian teams in the h-cup