AP Round 10 Preview (is it that time already?)

First topic message reminder :

So the last weekend of Premiership Rugby is upon us before we get to the HC double headers! I'm expecting some hum dingers this round as teams look for good performances to grow their confidence and to get those W's and the all important winning momentum leading up to Europe's make or break two weeks. Are you excited?

A quick recap of the last weekend saw Worcester battle past a frankly flacid Bath team, and Exeter stun Sale away at Edgely Park. Sat followed with Northampton man-shaming Saracens at the Gardens then LI continued their sporadic form with a turgid win over Wasps, before Leicester showed talk of them missing out on top four this season was lunacy as they heaped woe on Gloucester at the Shed. The weekend finished with league leaders Quins putting bottom dwellers Falcons to the sword.

The table as it stands:
P W D L Pts
Harlequins 9 9 0 0 39
Saracens 9 7 0 2 30
London Irish 9 4 1 4 24
Northampton 9 5 0 4 22
Exeter Chiefs 9 4 0 5 21
Gloucester Rugby 9 4 0 5 20
Sale Sharks 9 4 0 5 20
London Wasps 9 4 0 5 19
Bath Rugby 9 4 0 5 18
Leicester Tigers 9 3 1 5 18
Worcester Warriors 9 3 1 5 16
Newcastle Falcons 9 1 1 7 7

So on to this weekends games:

First up on Friday night it's the Falcons hosting Gloucest, both teams go in to the game off poor performances and to me it could go either way, alot depends on the weather with rain suiting Falcons and drier conditons helping Gloucester. Although all home games are now must wins for falcons if they want to avoid the drop in the end I can't see past a Gloucester win, especially if they finally get some organisation within the backline.

Gloucester by 5 but no bp. Losing bp for Falcons.

On Sat Bath host Sale at the Rec and although they've been very hit and miss with their rugby these last few weeks I think they'll have too much for an imported Sale team lacking much spirit. Still though I can't see Bath's forwards controlling the game and it may well come down to how Donald plays to see how comfortable the win is.

If Donald plays well Bath by 10, if not Bath by 3.

Also in Saturday we have one of the best derby's going with 10th placed Leicester hosting 4th placed local rivals Saints. Both teams will be happy with their results last weekend and neither will want to ruin the feel good vibe with a loss now. Two key battles here for me to decide the match, the packs, if Saints come out firing like last weekend then an early lead is pretty certain, can they then stem the inevitable Tigers fight back. And also at flyhalf with Lamb v Flood being an interesting battle to watch for EPS spots.

I think i'll have to play it safe and say home advantage will win out giving Tigers their first home win of the season. Tigers by 8.

Cheifs host Worcester next on Sat and it may not be pretty but it should be a good battle for the forwards. I expect Exeter to show their extra smarts and prem savvy and grind out a win against Wuss who've looked competent at times but nothing more.

Exeter to score a decisive try and then keep that score ahead throughout. Exeter by 7.

Sun see's LI travel to Saracens and to be honest you have to expect a backlash, Saracens were ineffective last weekend unable to conjure anything for the full 80 so they'll be looking to lay down a marker for their home fans this time round. LI are another team searching for form and I don't think it's going to be found this weekend, I just can't see their pack competing against Sara's.

Can't see Saracens losing twice, I can see a winning bp and Saracens by 18 though.

And the last match of the weekend has Harlequins on the road to Wycombe to face Wasps. The pests have had a sporadic season to date and i can't see it getting better as the league leaders travel to them in a rich vein of form. Harlequins will be without various players due to injury so this will be the squads toughest test to date but they should rise to it and carry on the unbeaten run.

Quins to win by 8 in a scrappy match.

How much confidence do you have for the Ospreys double header? I felt that was a really poor performance by Sarries and the coaches have to be concerned.

beshocked

agree with everything except the try bit. It was a try: there was one camera angle where you clearly saw Paice grounding the ball on the line. Was annoyed LI kicked away so much possession, but even more annoyed that on the many times they got within five meters of the line, they went pick and go like headless chickens when all their clean breaks came through the midfield. Guys like Hala'ufia and Garvey running onto the ball at pace five yards out are going to be hard to stop!

Apologies mad for chelsea I evidently didn't see the angle where he grounded the ball. I agree about your sentiments. Hal'ufia (he's the no 8 right) and Garvey were your best players.

Kicking the ball away isn't London Irish's style in my opinion.

LondonTiger as I said in my previous post - a win is a win. It was ugly and we didn't play well but you move on. I expected the match to be as it was.

Plenty of times I have seen Saracens win ugly. For the neutral it's not a pretty site but it's effective.Even then we did have a few chances to score a try or two but squandered them.

Against the Ospreys we will definitely have Brits back who adds a lot to our attacking capabilities, Hodgson and Barritt should be fit and will add much needed creativity and options which we badly missed. Burger and Brown will hopefully start too and bring some more go forward ability in the backrow.

It was essentially a makeshift backline thrown up for the occasion and it showed. Little attacking threat.

I think that Saracens are capable of a good performance. I don't think Ospreys are that imposing. We can beat them - I am confident of that. We do need to play better though.

In the last two seasons we have generally been our most effective in the latter stages - February onwards.

Agree beshocked, was a dire game in all honesty. At face value a LBP away at the champions is a decent result (don't think anyone else has taken one at your place this season but I stand to be corrected on that), but I can't help feeling that we've missed out to be honest, as the game was definitely there to win.

I won't get into discussing the referee, as it will sound like sour grapes, so I will leave it at saying well done to Sarries, who did what they have done better than any other team over the past two and half seasons, and ground out the win whilst not at their best.

I only saw the last 10 minutes plus change of the Sarries vs LI game and it looked to me like Sarries had gone back to last years style of territory and defensive pressure. It seemed to be working. The defence looked better and LI give away penalties, when you have a reliable goal kicker then it's happy days.

The Exiles just didn't show enough urgency, they turned it on for the try (which was a try) but then Bowden took his sweet time with the conversion and the from the kick off the seemed to relax almost as if they were in the lead. Very strange.

Ozzy personally I thought the ref was dire for both sides equally but if you feel otherwise you are entitled to your opinion. Thanks. Best of luck for the rest of the season.

I felt the differences were as Sam says the reliable goal kicker.
5/5 for Farrell vs two missed kicks from you. Farrell is so valuable because when he's kicking well he simply doesn't miss and those 3 pointers do make all the difference. If you look at various matches we have won it's because we have nailed every single kick.

Also the 10 minutes in the cooler for Smit - we won that period 6-0 when down to 14. You can debate whether certain penalties should have been given but ultimately when up by 1 man you should make the most of it.Australia showed exactly how to use the man advantage!

Sam I actually thought our defence looked a bit shaky. I think London Irish made 4 clean breaks to our 1. Probably less missed tackles too. It was holding London Irish out on our tryline for long periods which made a huge difference.

Ozzy we do a lot of grinding but when are we going to see Saracens at their best?

Sam I actually thought our defence looked a bit shaky

I was thinking of the succesful slowing of the ball at the breakdown and the pressure put on the half backs. Made it difficult to play the free flowing stuff but did leave some holes around the fringes which LI exploited quite well, it's how they scored.

Beshocked, I don't dispute for one minute that the referee was shocking for both sides. Some of his decisions were completely baffling, and it was the worst display of refereeing a scrum that I have seen all season. If a player had that poor a game, I have no doubt he would be dropped the next week, but I suspect that Mr Small will be free to frustrate two further sets of fans with his ineptitude next week as well.

The kicks did make a huge difference. I was a bit surprised when Homer missed the first one, but given the fact that he has been ill all week and had to be withdrawn at half time I will let him off. (Suspect that had we had any other back three players available he may not have started the game this week.) Bowden is a 60/70% kicker so was no surprise when he missed the conversion to be honest, but disappointing as we lost by 4 points having left 5 points out on the field.

We really need to kick on and turn some of these close defeats into wins. In 7 HC and AP defeats we have lost be a combined total of 22 points across those matches (hence the outcry by our fans on here when people were predicting an 18 point defeat this week!!!). We really need to be swinging those margins the other way if we genuinely want to be competing for the play offs this season, as the Saints and Tiggers are rumbling up behind now, whilst Quins and Saracens are disappearing into the distance.

Ozzy3213 that's the difference between Saracens of old and Saracens now. In the past we would have lost that match yesterday and were on the bad side of many narrow scorelines just like you are now.

Stick to your gameplan, not ours. It's depressing to see the likes of Ojo kicking the ball away. Go back to your roots - free flowing rugby. I reckon if you backed yourself a bit more with ball in hand you would have won.

I think with so many first choice backs missing we didn't trust ourselves enough, but I think we get Delon back next week, Shontayne the week after and Shingler the week after that.

Marland Yarde is seeing the surgeon this week and should be back training so hopefully back in contention to play by the time the AP games start again, and Tagicakibau could be back in conention then as well.

Massive game for us now on the 27th against the 3rd placed Chiefs, a repeat of last seasons TBP win would be just the Christmas presnet we need really.

You missed as many first choice backs out as us. You should have still backed yourself. You're London Irish!

Didn't know you are playing Chiefs that'll be interesting.

Our next AP game also on the 27th will be massive too - table toppers vs defending champions, 1st vs 2nd - Quins vs Sarries at Twickenham.

Which other matches are happening then?

Worcester vs Tigers, sell out and on tv as well. For some reason these games get a bit fiesty so it should be a good watch. Be interesting to see Andy Foode play against his old club as well.

Sat 24th Dec 11 15:15 Northampton Saints v Bath Rugby Franklin's
Mon 26th Dec 11 14:30 Sale Sharks v Newcastle Falcons Edgeley Park
Mon 26th Dec 11 15:00 Gloucester Rugby v London Wasps Kingsholm
Tue 27th Dec 11 13:30 London Irish v Exeter Chiefs Madejski Stadium
Tue 27th Dec 11 14:00 Worcester Warriors v Leicester Tigers Sixways
Tue 27th Dec 11 16:30 Harlequins v Saracens Twickenham Sky More

So that's...

6th vs. 10th
5th vs. 12th
8th vs. 9th
4th vs. 3rd
11th vs. 7th
1st vs. 2nd

Table is so tight still, some of these games over the next lot of fixtures could well make or break teams seasons.

We have Chiefs (h), Bath (a), Sale (h), which last season we took 11 points from (2 TBP wins and 1 LBP defeat). I would be reasonably happy with that return again this season, although I do feel that we should be able to go to The Rec and win if we really want to be considered a top side.

I think the issue with Irish is that in previous years we have attempted to play our expansive game all season. Whilst it has worked for the first 6 or so games and the last 6 or so games, that period in the middle has been a real struggle. I think TB and MC are now looking to play a more forwards-based game during the winter months, and despite the result I think it is working. Ojo is simply not fit at the moment and we are missing some real flyers in Armitage, Tagicakibau and Joseph. It feels to me like we are just trying to battle through these games to the best of our ability and when we get some of them back we will revert to type....

I know beshocked that you are saying that we are London Irish and should play with width all the time, but I simply don't think that was possible yesterday against Saracens and their stern defence.

Absolutely chuffed about that result against Wasps, another backs to the wall defensive effort mixed up with some electric counter attacking. I really went in to the Wasps game expecting to lose and being happy to get the lbp, so it's bewildering to finish the match bemoaning not getting the winning bp!

Hopefully that performance from Robshaw will finally shut Guscott up about how average he is. His performance in the second half dragged the whole team back in to the game and helped to force Wasps on to the back foot. The only time they threatened was when we were a man down and a lot of that was down to too much kicking away counter attack ball.

Well done to Luke Wallace with his 4th Prem try and 4th MoM of the season. Also well done to our academy lock Charlie Matthews making his first Prem start for the club and apart from some first half line out troubles looked completely at home, big praise for getting the lineout sorted in the second half as well.

Looking ahead to Toulouse though we desperately need Robson and Kohn back in the engien room and Johnston really needs to start to learn to scrummage well in relation to his size and weight. Another set piece display like yesterdays and the French won't be as coy as Wasps.

Sirburger I personally couldn't see you beating us playing to our gameplan.

Biarritz,Saints and Wasps showed how to beat us. They didn't play our gameplan. They were bold and ambitious. To beat us you need to be.

We battled through because we lacked key players too. The best teams beat us by smashing us at the breakdown, generating quick ball and the gaps open.

After the heineken head to heads Tigers have 3 matches in 10 days.

Away to Worcester, then home to Sale and Wasps. All three are winnable and could see us fly up the table. However Cockers will need to rotate the squad quite seriousley as they come straight after two potentially titanic clashes with Clermont.

Ours works out as 3 games in 11 days, so a little bit more recovery than Tigers have, but it seems daft that we have 10 days between playing Racing Metro at home and playing Exeter Chiefs.

I can't understand why all of the AP R11 fixtures are not being played on the Sat 24th, thereby giving all teams decent rest periods between the R11/R12/R13 games.

There is a real risk that given the tight nature of the league right now teams will not want to rest big players and risk losing, which clearly will increase the risk of injury.

When we play Bath on Sun 1st Jan, they will have had 8 days rest having played on 24th Dec, whereas we will only have 5. I know 3 days doesn't sound much to some, but they have almost twice the rest period that we have.

I suspect that Sky/ESPN have had a fair bit of say with the fixtures, as 4 of the 6 are televised in R11, but I am really not impressed with the fixture planning, particluarly given the fact that our game is one of the 2 not being shown live.

However Cockers will need to rotate the squad quite seriousley as they come straight after two potentially titanic clashes with Clermont

He might not have much choice if the citing commissioner takes a dim view of the on pitch brawl. Morris and Smith into the back three so as to allow Manu back into the side? Maybe Hamilton in as well depending on how many back three players we lose (could we be all three).

Definitely will need to give the likes of Deacon, Chuter and Ayerza a break after the Clermont games as they have put themselves about a lot. Cole and Castro get rotated enough so as not to worry. Maybe de Carpienter will get a run out in one of the festive fixtures I've heard good things from his games for Notts and the A Team.

Yappy - Are we going to see Johnston propping against his Brother for the Toulouse encounter?

propdavid_london wrote:Yappy - Are we going to see Johnston propping against his Brother for the Toulouse encounter?

After that performance he may well be warming the bench. I don't know what it is, he's the heaviest bloke in the league but just seems to really lack basic technique in the scrums. Would love to see him taking on Census though.

formerly known as Sam wrote:I can't see the Wasps scrum being up to much but their lineout options look good. It's in the loose they'll need to earn their money though as that Wasps backline will be excellent if given a sniff of quick ball. The Quins backrow might win them this game if they can slow down the Wasps ball and pressurise Simpson and Robinson.

I am guessing that most of us were a little surprised to see just how well Wasps went in the scrum.

I wonder what the result would have been had Evans and Robinson swopped sides?