A message of intent from Federer

Encouraged by his superb form towards the end of the season, 16-time Grand Slam winner Roger Federer is ready for another shot at the world No 1 spot currently held by Novak Djokovic.

Currently ranked No 3 behind Djokovic and Rafael Nadal, Federer summed up his thoughts thus in Abu Dhabi yesterday: "The world No 1 ranking is something you always look forward to when you are ranked in the top three. I had a great finish to the season which gives me the feelings that I have come here physically better [than] in a long time.

"Last year I did not have any injury issues so it is a good thing looking ahead."

Commenting on his great finish to the season, which ended with his sixth win in the ATP World Tour finals, the Swiss ace said: "I have had a couple of tough losses, at Wimbledon especially, even in the French Open final and in the US Open semis. So for me it was just about keeping my cool, staying mentally sane and not going crazy about it.

"They were multiple tough losses, but I decided to face the facts. Okay some guys are playing better than ‘you' but I had to just be confident, work hard and it turned around at the end of the season."

Commenting on the competition getting tougher at the top, the Swiss maestro said, "First I was trying to make the breakthrough. Then I tried to remain world No 1. That's what I was trying to do when Nadal was my main rival and there were a few others.

"Novak and [Andy] Murray have also been there and this year Novak managed to put together quite an extraordinary season. I expect from Murray, Djokovic and Rafa another great season next year. I think we all did play very well this last season."

http://gulfnews.com/sport/tennis/federer-badly-wants-to-be-no-1-1.958821

Certainly a message of intent from Roger, how do you see 2012 panning out for him?

It is good to see him motivated to get back to #1. AO 2012 would be good barometer for his 2012. Olympics (on grass) is another interesting tournament for him.

Similar article on ATP web site - http://www.atpworldtour.com/News/Tennis/2011/12/Features/Countdown-Federer.aspx

Would be tremedous for Federer to get to #1 again - I don't suppose Laverfan could pull the stats of all players in the open era ranked #1 at the age of 30 or greater? Has to be very few.

To be fair though, I doubt it will happen. I mean last year 1-3 vs Nadal or 1-4 vs Djokovic. How is he going to turn those around? I don't see it.

With Djokovic it's easy to see how it could have been different; the riskiest shot of the match goes out or hits the net, Djokovic loses and the H2H is 3-2 Djokovic with Fed winning the more important matches so pretty even overall. Vs Nadal well... that's always been a lost cause.

In my view Federer is one of the last top players of the ‘classic’ tennis. Nadal introduced (or perfected) a more machine-like style of play with a simple ‘strategy’ that he executes relentlessly. When he is fit he can do this for hours and hours and just wait for Federer’s level to dip. Only on very fast courts (like indoor) he struggles to execute this game-plan.
Federer knows that he can only beat the Nadal-machine when he’s playing brilliantly for almost an entire match, which is tough to do. And mental issues when playing against Nadal have made this even more difficult for him. Nadal on the other hand just concentrates on doing what he does best. He’s a well-oiled machine that almost always works. That’s why Nadal’s losses are almost always explaned by some kind of physical problem or injury.

Djokovic is now turning out to be an even better version of the modern tennis machine. Just like against Nadal, Federer can only beat Djokovic when he plays his very best (like he did at the French Open and most of that semi-final in New York). Anything below that level and he gets steamrolled.

Now when Nadal plays Djokovic, he has a real problem. Because even when he executes his normal strategy (that used to guarantee success), it’s simply not enough.
Therefore I can see only Federer (or maybe Murray) stopping Djokovic from achieving a Grand Slam – but not Nadal.

I can only go by my general observation of the game sans statistics at fingertips AND gut instincts and inference based on that. I think I would never rule Nadal out. Despite the stats, there is not that much great difference between Rafa and Nole, just as there was/is between Roger and Rafa. Of course, by this time next year, we will know with more certainty the "truth". I can't see anyone doing a grand slam. If injuries prevail, of course the first likely person is you know who.

Prostaff, I agree fully with your Federer - Nadal analysis. It's word perfect.

Your Djokovic analysis - 2nd paragraph - I agree with too, but it's a bit provisional, let's see if Djokovic can repeat that performance level this year.

As to your comment that you cannot see Nadal getting even one victory against Nadal in a slam, that is probably a bit of a step too far, but let's see.

prostaff85 wrote:Nadal introduced (or perfected) a more machine-like style of play with a simple ‘strategy’ that he executes relentlessly.

Davy was the Tennis machine sans fitness.

I actually think all four have an "intent" for the No.1 spot, but would be most surprised if Fed got there out of all the four - simply because time catches up with us all

However, it wouldn't be a huge shock if he did

May the best player win!!

Assuming eveyone's fully fit, over 5 sets Nadal and Novak are still better players. I can see Fed beating one of them but I can't see him beating them both to win a slam. I think he's gonna need help from Murray, Tsonga, Berdych etc to take one of them out.

Henman Bill wrote:Prostaff, I agree fully with your Federer - Nadal analysis. It's word perfect.

Your Djokovic analysis - 2nd paragraph - I agree with too, but it's a bit provisional, let's see if Djokovic can repeat that performance level this year.

As to your comment that you cannot see Nadal getting even one victory against Nadal in a slam, that is probably a bit of a step too far, but let's see.

Thanks HB, you're probably right that it's not quite that black-and-white, but then again, if it weren't for Federer, Djokovic might have had a Grand Slam already...

prostaff85 wrote:In my view Federer is one of the last top players of the ‘classic’ tennis. Nadal introduced (or perfected) a more machine-like style of play with a simple ‘strategy’ that he executes relentlessly. When he is fit he can do this for hours and hours and just wait for Federer’s level to dip. Only on very fast courts (like indoor) he struggles to execute this game-plan.
Federer knows that he can only beat the Nadal-machine when he’s playing brilliantly for almost an entire match, which is tough to do. And mental issues when playing against Nadal have made this even more difficult for him. Nadal on the other hand just concentrates on doing what he does best. He’s a well-oiled machine that almost always works. That’s why Nadal’s losses are almost always explaned by some kind of physical problem or injury.

Djokovic is now turning out to be an even better version of the modern tennis machine. Just like against Nadal, Federer can only beat Djokovic when he plays his very best (like he did at the French Open and most of that semi-final in New York). Anything below that level and he gets steamrolled.

Now when Nadal plays Djokovic, he has a real problem. Because even when he executes his normal strategy (that used to guarantee success), it’s simply not enough.
Therefore I can see only Federer (or maybe Murray) stopping Djokovic from achieving a Grand Slam – but not Nadal.

I want this posted up on a sticky at the top of the forum so people can read and learn.

prostaff85 wrote:

Henman Bill wrote:Prostaff, I agree fully with your Federer - Nadal analysis. It's word perfect.

Your Djokovic analysis - 2nd paragraph - I agree with too, but it's a bit provisional, let's see if Djokovic can repeat that performance level this year.

As to your comment that you cannot see Nadal getting even one victory against Nadal in a slam, that is probably a bit of a step too far, but let's see.

Thanks HB, you're probably right that it's not quite that black-and-white, but then again, if it weren't for Federer, Djokovic might would have had a Grand Slam already...

Corrected.

It shall be a very intriguing year ahead.

Federer could win a couple Slams should his game remain consitent. What he showed at the back end of 2011 was that with constentcy he is the man to beat at the Slams. The serve and BH look more solid and consistent and if he can maintain that, then yes we could see him add more Slam silverwear to cabinet full of it!!

Djokovic with his ultimate Iron Man like 2011 has so much to do. Right from the off he has to hit the ground running and that will be tough. Had Federer experienced consistent Clay success, he may not have captured titles towards the mid-back end of his dominant seasons. I do wonder if Djokovic will skip Barcelona again. 2012 is a tall tall order.

Nadal is facing his biggest challenge yet. I think 2011 he did not expect Djokovic to wipe the floor with him like he did. Seeing emancipator's article certainly showed that he seemed dumbfounded and confused by how his 2011 panned out. I guess he didn't feel the dip in his play and form like his fans had. However, he is the last man I want to write off. I think a fully fit and focused Nadal is almost too much for any player on his day.

Murray. New coach may lead to new successes. He was certainly the form man ending 2011 until Roger decided to enter the fray and mop up the last 3 titles end of the season. I think if he can get off to a good start at the Australian Open, we could see some Slam success.

Del Potro is looking menacing. The one guy out of the top 4 who can blast them off the court on his day. Should he stay injury free could see the top 4 under threat.

Raonic is certainly becoming a Hardcourt nightmare. I am sure the top 4 will want to avoid him at the early stages of a Slam.

I think Nadal is still the one to beat next year. He's as good as ever and even an on form Del Potro couldn't beat him in the Davis cup so anyone else can forget trying to hit him off clay. Despite his injuries, his body has faired well with his game and that looping forehand is an effective play on any surface.

break_in_the_fifth wrote:I think Nadal is still the one to beat next year. He's as good as ever and even an on form Del Potro couldn't beat him in the Davis cup so anyone else can forget trying to hit him off clay. Despite his injuries, his body has faired well with his game and that looping forehand is an effective play on any surface.

Is this the Del Potro. struggling to get back in the Top 10 and failing to win any events of note, let alone a maiden Masters? One day, some Tennis pundits will realise that he has been grossly over-rated. For me Fed's US Open loss to the Argentinean, remains his biggest disappointment - we can forgive the 2008 massacre at the hands of Nadal as nobody could live with the Spaniard that day. But losing to a player who struggles to get sets of Murray and Nole, never mind matches, in a Slam - for the GOAT it must have been hard to take

No. Much as I've warmed to DP over the years, he simply isn't as good as the Top 6, never mind the Top 3

Of more significance, is that Nadal has now lost to each of his three rivals the last time he played them - with it becoming increasingly apparent that the high physicality of his game, which started from the age of 18, is taking it's toll

Of course, he remains the player to beat - but the other three will be disappointed if they don't start beating him

Is it apparent that his physical game has taken any toll on him? He gets stronger every year and is even fit for more of the year than before.