Nadal's Slippery Slope

First topic message reminder :

Recently a thread was created based on Fed's chance to regain a #2 ranking with maybe a view to getting to number 1. It has been argued that Fed woudl not care much as his goal was winning slams 1st and foremost.

However I am pretty sure Nadal cares a lot about that number 2 spot, more than Fed in fact. He knows that surrendering that number 2 ranking would expose him sooner to Djoko which in turn coudl seriously affect his ranking points. Thanks to points accumulated on clay Nadal has avoided for years (2005-2011) to meet Federer in semis, giving for instance the chance many times to avoid guys like Nalbandian and Davydenko early in slams and tournaments when those guys were at number 3 or 4 and a threat. If he starts to lose in semis versus Djoko, he might find it very hard to hold on to his number 3 ranking and then other players might start to smell blood as Nadal can have tough matches in early rounds. From there might come the possibility of Nadal even meeting Djoko, Murray, Davydenko in earlier rounds even (1/4F) everytime affecting his ranking and possibly his motivation. Remember, he is making hard work of every win and that motivation, tenacity so essential to his game might finally wane. It will of course give him tough physical matches earlier in the tournaments reducing his chance to do well in the final stages.

Of course this clay season is going to be key for him to remain at number 2 but imo it's just a question of months before he starts sliding seriously, especially if he cannot accumulate enough points on clay which has been the surface that saved him all those years of much lower ranking. I remember once that taking his clay points away was taking him to number 8 or below in the ranking. I am pretty sure he will share the clay points this spring and that could simply be the beginning of the end for Nadal. He is aware of that more than anybody and withdrawing from MIami was a smart move. Fighting hard versus Murray and Djoko while not being sure to win was never going to be a good idea when considering what is at stake in the next few weeks. Rafa fans hold on tight to your seatbelts, it could be a tough ride from now.

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Nadal for year end no 1 in 2022?

--2000 points on the board already
--clay season still to come
--Novak may miss some events if he doesn´t get vaccinated

2022 could be a year without a single dominant player, so Rafa may be able to do it. He perhaps would need to win the French though

I dont think he can be number 1 as I believe he will play very few tournaments

but of course, if he wins another slam he will have a chance.


Knowing Novak, he will go with all his anger for RG and Wimbledon

I think Nadal is always to be considered a serious favourite for RG but I have the feeling that after last years semifinal, Novak has his number also on clay.

Lets see how all this vaccine crisis evolves, because it can play a decisive role in the total slam count


On the other hand I dont see Roger lifting another slam (but I wish he did)

naxroy wrote:

I think Nadal is always to be considered a serious favourite for RG but I have the feeling that after last years semifinal, Novak has his number also on clay.

Not sure this is true. Nadal’s foot was held together with tape and yet it took Djokovic over 4hrs to beat Nadal.
And Nadal won the final in Roma just a couple of weeks before.

Jeff Navarro wrote:

naxroy wrote:

I think Nadal is always to be considered a serious favourite for RG but I have the feeling that after last years semifinal, Novak has his number also on clay.

Not sure this is true. Nadal’s foot was held together with tape and yet it took Djokovic over 4hrs to beat Nadal.
And Nadal won the final in Roma just a couple of weeks before.

believe me, I wish I am wrong

Jeff Navarro wrote:

naxroy wrote:

I think Nadal is always to be considered a serious favourite for RG but I have the feeling that after last years semifinal, Novak has his number also on clay.

Not sure this is true. Nadal’s foot was held together with tape and yet it took Djokovic over 4hrs to beat Nadal.
And Nadal won the final in Roma just a couple of weeks before.

Enough with the excuses, Djokovic was simply the better player on the day. There's always an excuse when Nadal or Djokovic lose.

‘Excuses’
Missing the next 6 months seemed a very convenient ‘excuse’

It's an excuse, Djokovic was better on the day that's it.

I thought we established a long time ago that Nadal has never lost a match when fully fit

Case for Rafael Nadal never being beaten while "fully fit":

FO 2009 4R: gets beaten by Soderling playing lights out tennis.  Seems fair and square but Nadal complains and then takes Wimbledon 2009 off while possibly having experimental knee treatment.

Wim 2012 2R: gets beaten by Lukáš Rosol playing lights out tennis.  Seems fair and square but Nadal complains and then takes USO 2012 and AO 2013 off while possibly having experimental knee treatment.  Is never the same again at Wimbledon - it would be 2018 before he gets past the fourth round again.

ps: watching those two matches it didn't seem that Nadal was hampered by anything it just seemed that his opponents were playing "lights out" tennis.

There is another theory behind the 'enforced' absences from the tour.

Soul Requiem wrote:There is another theory behind the 'enforced' absences from the tour.

With Nadal's playing style, it is almost inevitable that he'll face chronic injuries- so those absences make logical sense.

On the other hand, the conspiracy theories that ATP banned Nadal etc. have no evidence to back it up.

Jeff Navarro wrote:
Nadal’s foot was held together with tape and yet it took Djokovic over 4hrs to beat Nadal.

Stop with excuses. Nadal's movement in sets 1-3 was 100% fine; yet Djokovic won 2 of them.

It wasn't a good match from Nadal because his BH let him down; meanwhile Djokovic played great. Deserved the win.

Nadal haters, not just Tenez in 2012, have been disproven throughout his career!

yeah I didnt notice any problem with nadal in that semifinal

I wonder if Nadal has another French Open in him. It wouldn’t surprise me if he did have, but the suspicion remains that his whole body seems to be held together by tape, not just his foot..

Derek Smalls wrote:I wonder if Nadal has another French Open in him. It wouldn’t surprise me if he did have, but the suspicion remains that his whole body seems to be held together by tape, not just his foot..

The last 12 months has certainly not seen Rafa on the courts and fit for much of the time, so perhaps his body is now not able to cope. Even if so, it's been a remarkable career - most teenage prodigies are done before they hit 30, whereas Rafa has gone on past the retirement age of the majority of top players.

His Monte Carlo withdrawal is not a good portent. This years French looks doubtful so I guess that’s it for his slams.

Rafa has pulled out of Barcelona. A French Open without him seems almost inconceivable. Let's hope he's OK to take part in some of the clay-court season so he can at least put in an appearance at RG.