OWGR - Week #19

Congratulations to Matt Kuchar, winner of The Players Championship! This is undoubtedly his most important victory and is rewarded with a jump up to the highest ranking position of his carreer @ #5 in the world. No less than four players have shared the 2nd place and are receiving in excess of 30 owgr points each. For Ben Curtis this represents way more than what he got for the win at Valero a few weeks back and he continues his amazing come back with another significant move all the way to #72! Rickie Fowler follows his first win with a runner up place and climbs now to #18. Zach Johnson moves up to #27, while Martin Laird jumps up to #31, following one of the best results of his carreer. Impressive come back for Luke Donald on Sunday, but not quite enough to move him back to #1 in the world. Otherwise, a very significant result also for Kevin Na, who wasn't able to win today, but he is rewarded for his efforts (and for a much improved pace of his game in the last round) with a nice jump inside the top 50 in the world at #49!

Everything else fell into quasi-annonymity, but well done nevertheless to all the other winners this week:

- Ricardo Santos of Portugal, recording a great maiden win at home in Madeira - moves just inside the top 200 in the world
- Toru Taniguchi winner on the Japanese Tour - moves up to #79
- Eddie Pepperell of England, winner in France on the Challenge Tour - moves somewhere around #435
- Kim Bi-O, winner on the Korean Tour - moves up somewhere around #245

Other interesting moves include, Paul Casey dropping finally and innevitably outside the top 50, and a nice surprise for Matteo Manassero, who is just about hanging on to #60 this week, but it will be very hard to see this lasting for another week, which would give him a ticket for the US Open. And then there is Padrig Harrington dropping to #95, moving again very fast towards a rather embarassing exit from the top 100...

The OWGR table after week #19 should look as follows:

1 Rory McIlroy
2 Luke Donald
3 Lee Westwood
4 Bubba Watson
5 Matt Kuchar
6 Hunter Mahan
7 Tiger Woods
8 Steve Stricker
9 Martin Kaymer
10 Phil Mickelson
-------------------------
11 Webb Simpson
12 Justin Rose
13 Adam Scott
14 Louis Oosthuizen
15 Charl Schwartzel
16 Jason Day
17 Dustin Johnson
18 Rickie Fowler
19 Bill Haas
20 Graeme McDowell
21 Jason Dufner
22 Keegan Bradley
23 Sergio Garcia
24 Peter Hanson
25 Nick Watney
26 Brandt Snedeker
27 Zach Johnson
28 Ian Poulter
29 K.J. Choi
30 Bo Van Pelt
31 Martin Laird
32 Francesco Molinari
33 Mark Wilson
34 David Toms
35 John Senden
36 Carl Pettersson
37 Thomas Bjorn
38 Bae Sang-Moon
39 Jim Furyk
40 Simon Dyson
41 Paul Lawrie
42 Alvaro Quiros
43 Ernie Els
44 Geoff Ogilvy
45 Aaron Baddeley
46 Robert Karlsson
47 Anders Hansen
48 Fredrik Jacobson
49 Kevin Na
50 Ben Crane
---------------------------
51 Nicolas Colsaerts
52 Jonathan Byrd
53 Kyle Stanley
54 Paul Casey
55 Kim Kyung-Tae
56 Gonzalo Fdez-C.
57 Miguel Jimenez
58 Ryo Ishikawa
59 Robert Rock
60 Matteo Manassero
-------------------------------
61 Rafael Cabrerra-Bello
62 Y.E. Yang
63 Johnson Wagner
64 Greg Chalmers
65 Branden Grace
66 Retief Goosen
67 Charles Howell III
68 Ryan Moore
69 Gary Woodland
70 Darren Clarke
71 George Coetzee
72 Ben Curtis
73 Robert Garrigus
74 Spencer Levin
75 D.A. Points
76 Pablo Larazabal
77 Hiroyuki Fujita
78 Robert Allenby
79 Toru Taniguchi
80 Michael Hoey
81 Alexander Noren
82 Sean O'Hair
83 Jeff Overton
84 Joost Luiten
85 Chez Reavie
86 John Huh
87 Brian Davis
88 Ryan Palmer
89 Marcus Fraser
90 Vijay Singh
91 Richie Ramsay
92 Jacko Van Zyl
93 Brendan Jones
94 John Rollins
95 Padraig Harrington
96 Stephen Gallacher
97 Rory Sabbatini
98 Harrison Frazar
99 Michael Thompson
100 Bernd Wiesberger
-----------------------------
101 George McNeill
102 Thomas Aiken
103 Thorbjorn Olesen
...

pd

The rich are getting richer, but not as quickly as the poor are getting poorer!

Still very close in the fifties and low sixties!

Early count for this week suggests:

- Byron Nelson @ 42-44 pts
- Volvo Match Play @ 38 pts

There should be very little significant moves around the top part of the rankings (Kuchar the top ranked player in the two fields could become top American with a solo 2nd or win), with the most interesting changes expected around the top 60 cut line for the US Open qualification. Unfortunately Matteo will drop out of the top 60, as predicted...

I hate to bang on about his demise but I reckon clarke could be following Paddy out of the top 100 come the defence of his open championship.

England/Ireland may continue to hold the top 3 spots, but now 7 Americans in the next 8 in the rankings after some high profile wins in recent weeks. And that doesn't include the likes of Fowler, Bradley, DJ, Watney, etc.

American golf looking in pretty good health right now, results starting to back up the promise of some of the younger players. Hopefully the summer will see a few more of the Brits doing the same.....

So this is the final week to get inside that top 60? Guess it's worth looking at who needs to do what then.

As far as I can tell, from Nos. 51-75...

Not playing this week:
Byrd, Stanley, Casey, Gonzo, MAJ, Matteo, Moore, Coetzee, Curtis

Playing the Matchplay:
Colsaerts, Rock, Cabrera-Bello, Grace, Goosen, Clarke

Playing the Byron Nelson:
Yang, Wagner, Chalmers, Howell, Woodland, Garrigus, Levin, Points

Playing in Japan
Kim, Ishikawa

US Open qualifying:
This is the first "final" week for qualifying via the owgr Top Sixty.
The second and final "final" week will be at June 11th.

Open Championship also have their final "final" week in qualifying via the owgr Top Fifty this week, top fifty as at May 21st.
But of course there are other entry points, including the special PGA Tour moneylist for which The Players was the first event, to be followed by St.Jude, US Open, Travelers, AT&T, and Greenbrier.

Tiler

The balance of power does seem to be shifting back towards American golf after a year or two of Europeans outperforming them . Two major champs in a row and they have won 18 of the 21 events counting on the PGA tour this year. (I assumed Pettersson was American).

Here are some rough numbers for number of events won per season on PGA tour by US golfers;

2012 86%
2011 67%
2010 59%
2009 73%
2008 59%
2007 72%
2006 69%
2005 65%

Cheers Ned, I just crossed those who I think should be qualified already for the US Open...

Not playing this week:
Byrd, Stanley, Casey, Gonzo, MAJ, Matteo, Moore, Coetzee, Curtis

Playing the Matchplay:
Colsaerts, Rock, Cabrera-Bello, Grace, Goosen, Clarke

Playing the Byron Nelson:
Yang, Wagner, Chalmers, Howell, Woodland, Garrigus, Levin, Points

Playing in Japan
Kim, Ishikawa

I actually feel that the current trend of US winners on Tour is exaggerated by the dearth of "International" winners.

Without checking microscopically I believe KJ Choi, at last year's Players, was the last International (non-European) to win a full-field Tour event, although Adam Scott won the limited field Bridgestone.

With the Aussies and South Americans hibernating and no Vijay, Mike Weir, Ernie, Retief, Sabbatini etc, etc to fill the void, these wins have got to be earned by someone, and with most Europeans not much more than part-timers, it stands to reason the Americans will win more.

Up to Team GB&I to step up, because there's no sign the Internationals are going to. Perhaps this week!!??!!

Kwini

I agree with that analysis, we always talk of Euro or USA strength but really the oddest thing in world golf at the moment is how poor the internationals are doing.

OK... Here are the #41-75 rankings for this week (amortisation, etc. already applied).
If anyone spots any ommission or mistake let me know and will update it...

Legend:

- bold font = qualified for The Open Championship
- italic font = qualified for US Open
- bold&italic font = qualified for both
- normal font = not yet qualified for either of the two majors
- underlined = playing this week

......
41 Paul Lawrie
42 Alvaro Quiros
43 Ernie Els
44 Robert Karlsson
45 Fredrik Jacobson
46 Geoff Ogilvy
47 Aaron Baddeley
48 Anders Hansen
49 Kevin Na
50 Ben Crane
------------------------------------
51 Nicolas Colsaerts
52 Kyle Stanley
53 Jonathan Byrd
54 Paul Casey
55 Gonzalo Fdez-C.
56 Kim Kyung-Tae
57 Robert Rock
58 Rafael Cabrerra-Bello
59 Ryo Ishikawa
60 Miguel Jimenez
------------------------------------
61 Matteo Manassero
62 Y.E. Yang
63 Johnson Wagner
64 Branden Grace
65 Greg Chalmers
66 Retief Goosen
67 Charles Howell III
68 Ryan Moore
69 Gary Woodland
70 Darren Clarke
71 George Coetzee
72 Ben Curtis
73 Robert Garrigus
74 Spencer Levin
75 D.A. Points
......

kwinigolfer wrote:I actually feel that the current trend of US winners on Tour is exaggerated by the dearth of "International" winners.

I agree. It does seem odd that not a single "International" (as defined by Presidents Cup eligibility) has won on the PGA Tour this year. In most of the last decade International players already had one or two wins in their pocket even before they left Hawaii.

Last time the Internationals went this far into the PGAT season without a win was 1989 when Ian Baker Finch represented the first "International" win at Colonial (May 21)

Last time the Internationals went winless for the entire season on the PGAT was 1985 (there were 4 Euro wins that year - Langer(2), Seve, Lyle)

And it's not just the Americans taking the "missing" International wins. Counting Pettersson, the Euro win total has doubled from 2 to 4 through this point in the season. (McIlroy, Rose, Donald, Pettersson in 2012 compared to Donald and Laird in 2011)

As for OWGR rankings... it seems the bigger events hold the key for a large portion of the American's resurgence into the top-10. Taking the top-5 OWGR point events on the PGA Tour through this date (Riviera, WGC, WGC, Masters, Players)... International or Euro players won 4 out of 5 in 2011 (in order: Baddeley, Donald, Watney, Schwartzel, Choi) . This year it's reversed with Americans winning 4 of 5 (Haas, Mahan, Rose, Watson, Kuchar).

Should be pointed out... the Internationals are still having more than a pretty decent season on the Euro Tour, winning a third of the events to date (6 out of 18)... but except for Oosthuzen, just not the names we've come to expect with Branden Grace picking up 3 and Jbe Kruger picking up a win as well. Granted all 6 of those South African wins are in lower point events, but still, a win is a win. And then of course we have Americans winning 2 of those 18 official Euro Tour events with Mahan in the Match Play and Watson in the Masters.

No significant withdrawals so far from the Byron Nelson, Spencer Levin, JB Holmes (and Verplank?) the only two to have any marginal impact on owgr points available.

It seems Karlsson, GMac, Poulter, Casey(!), Kaymer et al have faded lately. They've been the backbone in the last couple of years. Glad to see Rose and Molinari with wins though - but it seems Donald, Rory and Westy (and Hanson) have been the only consistent players in the last 2 years.

All the WD's (Wagner out as well) are pushing BN towards the 40 owgr pts range at the moment (up from 38 last year)...

McLaren wrote:I hate to bang on about his demise but I reckon clarke could be following Paddy out of the top 100 come the defence of his open championship.

Clarke looks nailed on to be out of the Top 100 soon.

I wouldn't rule Harri out of making a spurt. He's playing ok...

princedracula wrote:All the WD's (Wagner out as well) are pushing BN towards the 40 owgr pts range at the moment (up from 38 last year)...

Hmmm... Now Wagner is back in the field... What's going on?

Do you ever see a player ranked outside top 500 hitting peak form over a weekend and winning a PGA tournament, let alone a major?

Rocco Mediate? Steve Flesch?

what about Huh? although that was a alternate week.
Ben Curtis wasnt outside the top 500 but he was well down the rankings when he won a few weeks back. and similar for when he won the open

How do you think the "Opens" qualification standings are affected so far?

US Open:
Top 60: Johnson Wagner missed the Dallas cut.
DA Points still in with a chance.

Good to see Colsaerts making it, and Cabrera-Bello, and surely Rock must have secured his place?

Another World Ranking Top 60 chance as at June 11th.


Open Championship:
Perhaps Colsaerts has eliminated Crane?

Am thinking Wagner and Stanley will make it via top-three-FedEx not already qualified, plus possibly John Huh or a high finisher this week.

Rock got 4.44 points, for his T9 finish, he should not have lost much ground. Cabrera-Bello should pass him

over in Japan, the Ishikawa is T14 and KT Kim is T32 after three round. Assuming it OWGR level 18, they need a T20 finishes to earn any points. I think the only way Ryo can impact the top 50 is with a win (I don't think 2nd is enough) and he is 8 shots back going into the final round.

Some rough estimates:

If Ryan Palmer can sneak out a win in Dallas, he will impact the top 60 but not the top 50. 2nd place is not good enough.

DA Points can impact both the top 50 and 60 with a win. Top 60 with a 2nd place.

OK.... Hard to keep up with everything when in holidays, but will have some time tonight to catch up a bit with everything...

First of all, final count for the week... just slightly off from initial predictions:

- Volvo Match Play @ 34 pts
- Byron Nelson @ 38 pts
- Japan @ 18 pts

Will follow shortly with a provisional owgr update after today's results...

This owgr update is based on Volvo results after QF, Asia after round 3 and the HP-BN situation a few moments ago (Kuchar in front and a 5-way tie for 2nd, incl. VJ and the 2xJD's)...

EDIT: Updated with Round 3 at HP-BNcompleted:

1 Rory McIlroy
2 Luke Donald
3 Lee Westwood
4 Bubba Watson
5 Matt Kuchar
6 Hunter Mahan
7 Tiger Woods
8 Steve Stricker
9 Justin Rose
10 Martin Kaymer
------------------------
11 Webb Simpson
12 Phil Mickelson
13 Adam Scott
14 Jason Day
15 Jason Dufner
16 Louis Oosthuizen
17 Charl Schwartzel
18 Dustin Johnson
19 Rickie Fowler
20 Graeme McDowell
21 Bill Haas
22 Sergio Garcia
23 Keegan Bradley
24 Peter Hanson
25 Brandt Snedeker
26 Nick Watney
27 Zach Johnson
28 Ian Poulter
29 K.J. Choi
30 Bo Van Pelt
31 Martin Laird
32 Francesco Molinari
33 Mark Wilson
34 John Senden
35 David Toms
36 Carl Pettersson
37 Thomas Bjorn
38 Bae Sang-Moon
39 Paul Lawrie
40 Jim Furyk
41 Alvaro Quiros
42 Simon Dyson
43 Ernie Els
44 Robert Karlsson
45 Nicolas Colsaerts
46 Fredrik Jacobson
47 Geoff Ogilvy
48 Aaron Baddeley
49 Anders Hansen
50 Kevin Na
---------------------
51 Ben Crane
52 Kyle Stanley
53 Jonathan Byrd
54 Paul Casey
55 Gonzalo Fdez-C.
56 Kim Kyung-Tae
57 Rafael Cabrerra-Bello
58 Robert Rock
59 Ryo Ishikawa
60 Miguel Jimenez
--------------------------
61 Retief Goosen
62 Matteo Manassero
63 Y.E. Yang
64 Johnson Wagner
65 Branden Grace
66 Greg Chalmers
67 Charles Howell III
68 Ryan Moore
69 Gary Woodland
70 Darren Clarke
71 George Coetzee
72 Ben Curtis
73 Robert Garrigus
74 D.A. Points
75 Spencer Levin
76 Pablo Larazabal
77 Hiroyuki Fujita
78 Toru Taniguchi
79 Robert Allenby
80 Vijay Singh
...

princedracula wrote:
First of all, final count for the week... just slightly off from initial predictions:

- Volvo Match Play @ 34 pts

Agree on the Volvo Match Play... I just posted the 34 final in the other thread... And I'm sure you're aware.... This event no longer gets home values.

Yep, no home points for Volvo and the T17s getting 2.3375, to clarify the discussion on the other thread...

Obviously situation very fluid at the top in Texas, so just a few projections on the possible winner there...

- VJ could get into the top 60 with a win
- Jason Day will be back to #7
- Dufffff could get up to #15

... and Podge will be getting nowhere with what he has now , stuck at #95...

And projections for the Volvo winner:

- GMac could go as high as #14
- RCB as high as #40
- Colsaerts as high as #32
- Paul Lawrie as high as #30

Since Garrigus and Woodland and Points have played themselves out of the tournament, Ryan Palmer and Vijay Singh are the only two players that really have a bona fide chance of knocking the Mechanic out of the Top 60.

Just a note to say that I've updated the last OWGR table a few posts back to account for the situation after 3rd round at Byron Nelson was completed...