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Draw Fixing : A Real World Example (Masters Series 2005-2012)

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Draw Fixing : A Real World Example (Masters Series 2005-2012) Empty Draw Fixing : A Real World Example (Masters Series 2005-2012)

Post by laverfan Mon 11 Jun 2012, 12:01 am

These two tables provide data from the ATP World Tour Masters 1000 (and it's predecessor ATP Master Series) and look at draws.

1-4,2-3 indicates Seeds #1 and #4 were in the same half, as were seeds #2 and #3.
1-3,2-4 indicates Seeds #1 and #3 were in the same half, as were seeds #2 and #4.

The last two horizontal columns contains the number of 1-4,2-3 and 1-3,2-4 draws for that year. This also looks at the same totals per tournament.

Year/Tournament Indian Wells Miami Monte Carlo Rome Hamburg/Madrid (Clay) Canada Cincinnati Madrid/Shanghai (Hard) Paris 1-4,2-3 Occurrence (Year) 1-3,2-4 Occurrence (Year)
2005 1-4,2-3 1-4,2-3 1-4,2-3 1-4,2-3 1-3,2-4 1-3,2-4 1-4,2-3 1-3,2-4 1-4,2-3 6 3
2006 1-4,2-3 1-4,2-3 1-4,2-3 1-4,2-3 1-4,2-3 1-4,2-3 1-3,2-4 1-4,2-3 1-3,2-4 7 2
2007 1-4,2-3 1-4,2-3 1-4,2-3 1-3,2-4 1-4,2-3 1-4,2-3 1-4,2-3 1-4,2-3 1-3,2-4 7 2
2008 1-4,2-3 1-4,2-3 1-3,2-4 1-3,2-4 1-4,2-3 1-4,2-3 1-4,2-3 1-3,2-4 1-4,2-3 6 3
2009 1-3,2-4 1-4,2-3 1-4,2-3 1-4,2-3 1-3,2-4 1-3,2-4 1-3,2-4 1-3,2-4 1-4,2-3 4 5
2010 1-4,2-3 1-3,2-4 1-4,2-3 1-3,2-4 1-3,2-4 1-4,2-3 1-3,2-4 1-4,2-3 1-3,2-4 4 5
2011 1-4,2-3 1-3,2-4 1-3,2-4 1-3,2-4 1-3,2-4 1-3,2-4 1-3,2-4 1-3,2-4 1-4,2-3 2 7
2012 1-4,2-3 1-3,2-4 1-3,2-4 1-3,2-4 1-3,2-4 1 4
1-4,2-3 (By Tournament) 7 5 5 3 3 4 3 3 4 37
1-3,2-4 (By Tournament) 1 3 3 5 5 3 4 4 3 31

This shows a 37 (1-4,2-3) ~ 54% vs 31 (1-3,2-4) ~ 46% distribution, fairly even.

To avoid controversies regarding match-ups due to changes in ATP rankings, the following table, uses player names, rather than corresponding seedings. The order of tournaments is the same as the first table.

Expected SF Indian Wells Miami Monte Carlo Rome Hamburg/Madrid (Clay) Canada Cincinnati Madrid/Shanghai (Hard) Paris
2005 Federer v Safin, Hewitt v Roddick Federer v Coria, Roddick v Safin Federer v Gaudio, Safin v Henman Roddick v Henman, Safin v Gaudio Federer v Safin, Roddick v Gaudio Nadal v Roddick, Hewitt v Agassi Federer v Safin, Nadal v Hewitt Nadal v Davydenko, Roddick v Coria Roddick v Puerta, Coria v Davydenko
2006 Federer v Nalbandian, Nadal v Roddick Federer v Roddick, Nadal v Nalbandian Federer v Ljubicic, Nadal v Nalbandian Federer v Nalbandian, Nadal v Ljubicic Federer v Davydenko, Nadal v Ljubicic Federer v Ljubicic, Nadal v Nalbandian Federer v Ljubicic, Nadal v Nalbandian Federer v Nalbandian, Nadal v Ljubicic Federer v Nalbandian, Nadal v Davydenko
2007 Federer v Davydenko, Nadal v Roddick Federer v Davydenko, Nadal v Roddick Federer v Davydenko, Nadal v Roddick Federer v Roddick, Nadal v Davydenko Federer v Djokovic, Nadal v Davydenko Federer v Davydenko, Nadal v Djokovic Federer v Djokovic, Nadal v Roddick Federer v Davydenko, Nadal v Djokovic Federer v Djokovic, Nadal v Davydenko
2008 Federer v Davydenko, Nadal v Djokovic Federer v Davydenko, Nadal v Djokovic Federer v Djokovic, Nadal v Davydenko Federer v Djokovic, Nadal v Davydenko Federer v Davydenko, Nadal v Djokovic Federer v Davydenko, Nadal v Djokovic Federer v Davydenko, Nadal v Djokovic Nadal v Djokovic, Federer v Murray Nadal v Murray, Federer v Djokovic
2009 Nadal v Djokovic, Federer v Murray Nadal v Murray, Federer v Djokovic Nadal v Murray, Federer v Djokovic Nadal v Murray, Federer v Djokovic Nadal v Djokovic, Federer v Murray Federer v Murray, Nadal v Djokovic Federer v Murray, Nadal v Djokovic Nadal v Del Potro, Djokovic v Roddick Federer v Murray, Nadal v Djokovic
2010 Federer v Murray, Nadal v Djokovic Federer v Murray, Djokovic v Nadal Djokovic v Cilic, Nadal v Murray Federer v Nadal, Djokovic v Murray Federer v Murray, Nadal v Soderling Nadal v Murray, Djokovic v Federer Nadal v Federer, Djokovic v Murray Nadal v Federer, Djokovic v Federer Federer v Murray, Djokovic v Soderling
2011 Nadal v Soderling, Federer v Djokovic Nadal v Federer, Djokovic v Soderling Nadal v Murray, Federer v Ferrer Nadal v Federer, Djokovic v Murray Nadal v Federer, Djokovic v Murray Djokovic v Federer, Nadal v Murray Djokovic v Federer, Nadal v Murray Nadal v Ferrer, Murray v Tsonga Djokovic v Ferrer, Murray v Federer
2012 Djokovic v Murray, Nadal v Federer Djokovic v Federer, Nadal v Murray Djokovic v Murray, Nadal v Tsonga Djokovic v Federer, Nadal v Murray Djokovic v Federer, Nadal v Tsonga


Based on the table containing player names, some samples are (based on seedings, Federer v Djokovic and Djokovic v Federer is considered equivalent for the expected SF).

Djokovic v Federer - 17 occurrences
Djokovic v Nadal - 15 occurrences

Nadal v Murray - 11 occurrences
Djokovic v Murray - 6 occurrences
Federer v Murray - 11 occurrences

Federer v Davydenko - 11 occurrences
Federer v Roddick - 2 occurrences
Federer v Ljubicic - 3 occurrences
Federer v Nadal - 7 occurrences

Let me know if I should go further back beyond 2005. 2005 is an arbitrary cutoff, but does include the current top 4.

Apart from Indian Wells showing a 7-1 proclivity towards 1-4,2-3 matchup, despite the 37-31 balance overall, is probably worthy of further analysis.

E&OE

This data is based on Wikipedia, which may be prone to errors. A couple of tournaments, where Federer and Nadal withdrew due to fatigue, I have used the printed versions from the ATP web site to validate the actual draw on Wikipedia. Data from 2005 Indian Wells - Madrid 2012.


Last edited by laverfan on Mon 11 Jun 2012, 4:35 pm; edited 1 time in total (Reason for editing : Added tournament names to 'Expected SF' table to avoid confusion.)

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Post by bogbrush Mon 11 Jun 2012, 2:58 am

So there's no fixing.

Thanks, useful. thumbsup

Don't worry about Indian Wells, there's nothing too surprising about one tournament producing a 7-1 result either way. Indeed the probability of that configuration is 16*(0.5)^8 = 1.5% (assuming we're indifferent as to which option only comes up once). That sounds remote, but how many events are there? Given there's 10 there's a 15%* of that happening on one of them, not exactly a shocker.

* yes, I did take 1 -(Pr(not happening)^10). I didn't just multiply 1.5% by 10.
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Post by Guest Mon 11 Jun 2012, 8:12 am

clap

Yet there will be some window licker on this forum that will try his hardest to discredit the findings as he doesn't understand that the concept that draws are made by seeds and not by name.

Stunnng work though LF.

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Post by lydian Mon 11 Jun 2012, 9:51 am

Great work LF...this again shows no evidence of draw rigging whatsoever (as I suspected this analysis would show). Great to see the confirmation.

Given that Masters events have an even greater need than slams to boost revenue (they just dont have the same cache - pardon the pun), if you expected to see rigging it would be in those events where the top 4 are also usually prevalent. I'm sure the therorists will have their excuses though!

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Post by laverfan Mon 11 Jun 2012, 12:22 pm

Would like to hear from SoCal and others and see if this changes their viewpoint.

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Post by Guest Mon 11 Jun 2012, 12:25 pm

laverfan wrote:Would like to hear from SoCal and others and see if this changes their viewpoint.

Laugh Laugh


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Post by invisiblecoolers Mon 11 Jun 2012, 1:30 pm

laverfan wrote:Would like to hear from SoCal and others and see if this changes their viewpoint.

Such a nice research but ended in a funny note with that comment laughing

How long did it take for you to compile this stats? Shocked this is no easy task , either your a statistician or scientist or u should one of those avengers super hero on stats research. thumbsup

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Post by invisiblecoolers Mon 11 Jun 2012, 1:32 pm

Lets get back to meaningful discussion by standing on the side of the Socal Very Happy , how on earth Johny Bravo and Mammoth Mahut drawn on Wimbledon 1st round draw twice in a row?

Last but not least why on earth the Joker gets the toughest draw every time with Federer in it why not just Gasquet?

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Post by Chydremion Mon 11 Jun 2012, 1:36 pm

Oh yes, the people who don't believe in draw fixing think they are smart by examining the masters series. Hello, what? Master serie? 99% of world population probably doesnt know what that is. It's at the slams where the big money is made, and where draw fixing is necessary. Master series are only followed by avid tennis fans, or even addicts, who will watch regardless of who is playing the final.

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Post by Guest Mon 11 Jun 2012, 1:43 pm

Chydremion wrote:Oh yes, the people who don't believe in draw fixing think they are smart by examining the masters series. Hello, what? Master serie? 99% of world population probably doesnt know what that is. It's at the slams where the big money is made, and where draw fixing is necessary. Master series are only followed by avid tennis fans, or even addicts, who will watch regardless of who is playing the final.

I love denial.

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Post by laverfan Mon 11 Jun 2012, 2:16 pm

invisiblecoolers wrote:How long did it take for you to compile this stats? :shocked:

6-8 hours over the weekend. Wink

chydremion wrote:It's at the slams where the big money is made, and where draw fixing is necessary.

The ESPN study looks only R1/R2.

The University of Talinn study looks at slams, but discards the data at FO, because it does not suit their hypothesis. What other tournaments would you like to be examined?

One important fact to point out, in case you might have missed it, is, apart from the slams, it is only at the Masters series where all top seeds turn up, otherwise they can play different tournaments in the ATP 500/250 chain and never meet each other. OK

In other words, ATP 500/250 do not have Top 4 participation as the ATP 1000s do (apart from withdrawals).

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Post by laverfan Mon 11 Jun 2012, 2:23 pm

invisiblecoolers wrote:Lets get back to meaningful discussion by standing on the side of the Socal Very Happy , how on earth Johny Bravo and Mammoth Mahut drawn on Wimbledon 1st round draw twice in a row?

From 1970-2011, there are seven or eight instances of two players meeting in consecutive Wimbledons. My research so far has revealed the following.

2011 W Isner v Mahut
2010 W Isner v Mahut

2008 W Ginepri v Gonzalez
2007 W Ginepri v Gonzalez

Near misses....

1977 W Connors v Lewis
1980 W Connors v Lewis

2007 W Almagro v Tursunov
2005 W Almagro v Tursunov

2008 W Melzer v Ljubicic
2005 W Melzer v Ljubicic


BTW, researching this has turned it out to be a much more painful exercise compared to the Masters Series research. It is a work-in-progress right now. I had wanted to complete it, before I published partial results, but you forced my hand. Wink Hug

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Post by invisiblecoolers Mon 11 Jun 2012, 2:42 pm

@LF your works and research are amazing as usual clap

But for the fun sake I gonna stand on Socal's side laughing and say this come Wimbledon the draw will be like this

Nole- Fed and Rafa- Murray .

Wimby authorities certainly don't want their fav. child Murray to face Djoko and would certainly love to have a blockbuster Fed-Rafa on cards atleast, so the draws would be rigged Laugh Run

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Post by Guest Mon 11 Jun 2012, 2:49 pm

I am betting that Fognini will be drawn with Nole in the first round!

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Post by invisiblecoolers Mon 11 Jun 2012, 3:00 pm

legendkillarV2 wrote:I am betting that Fognini will be drawn with Nole in the first round!
Laugh Hug , thats left for FO LK not for Wimbledon.

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Post by Guest Mon 11 Jun 2012, 3:03 pm

invisiblecoolers wrote:
legendkillarV2 wrote:I am betting that Fognini will be drawn with Nole in the first round!
Laugh Hug , thats left for FO LK not for Wimbledon.

Laugh the picture is set.

Djokovic defeats Fognini in a first 5 set thriller.

Djokovic makes the final.

Loses it to Nadal over a 10 day final.

We blame Fognini for the first round for Djokovic losing!

Laugh fairytale stuff.

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Post by invisiblecoolers Mon 11 Jun 2012, 4:12 pm

@ lk Laugh

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Post by Chydremion Mon 11 Jun 2012, 4:46 pm

legendkillarV2 wrote:
Chydremion wrote:Oh yes, the people who don't believe in draw fixing think they are smart by examining the masters series. Hello, what? Master serie? 99% of world population probably doesnt know what that is. It's at the slams where the big money is made, and where draw fixing is necessary. Master series are only followed by avid tennis fans, or even addicts, who will watch regardless of who is playing the final.

I love denial.

And I love great arguments like yours.

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Post by laverfan Mon 11 Jun 2012, 5:04 pm

Chydremion wrote:And I love great arguments like yours.

Would you care to discuss the information I provided? chin

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Post by invisiblecoolers Mon 11 Jun 2012, 5:07 pm

laverfan wrote:
Chydremion wrote:And I love great arguments like yours.

Would you care to discuss the information I provided? chin

Your asking for too much LF Run

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Post by Chydremion Mon 11 Jun 2012, 5:55 pm

laverfan wrote:
Chydremion wrote:And I love great arguments like yours.

Would you care to discuss the information I provided? chin

The subject of your article (master series) is irrelevant to the message you try to bring. I suppose all your stats are right but the only thing we can conclude is that there's probably no draw fixing in master series. So what?

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Post by Guest Mon 11 Jun 2012, 6:10 pm

Chydremion wrote:
laverfan wrote:
Chydremion wrote:And I love great arguments like yours.

Would you care to discuss the information I provided? chin

The subject of your article (master series) is irrelevant to the message you try to bring. I suppose all your stats are right but the only thing we can conclude is that there's probably no draw fixing in master series. So what?

Are you going to bring your findings to the cause of Slam draw rigging?

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Post by laverfan Mon 11 Jun 2012, 10:37 pm

Chydremion wrote:The subject of your article (master series) is irrelevant to the message you try to bring.

I analysed the Tour Masters 1000 and the predecessor Master Series, surprised that you do not see relevance.

Chydremion wrote: I suppose all your stats are right but the only thing we can conclude is that there's probably no draw fixing in master series. So what?

What else would you like to analyse? Slams have been analysed and the flaw in the Talinn study already pointed out (exclusion of FO for Mens).

There is quite a bit of discussion here.

https://www.606v2.com/t28203-draw-fixing-a-real-world-analysis-part-1-the-12-vs-12-question

Also, I can do an analysis similar to this one for slams from 2005-2012. Would that be a worthwhile discussion?

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Post by Chydremion Fri 15 Jun 2012, 9:39 am

legendkillarV2 wrote:
Chydremion wrote:
laverfan wrote:
Chydremion wrote:And I love great arguments like yours.

Would you care to discuss the information I provided? chin

The subject of your article (master series) is irrelevant to the message you try to bring. I suppose all your stats are right but the only thing we can conclude is that there's probably no draw fixing in master series. So what?

Are you going to bring your findings to the cause of Slam draw rigging?

I will, as soon as I find the time to write a probably extensive article about it. Too much work at the moment though.

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