Young Guns - When Can We Expect Them To Start Firing?

Harrison - 20
Tomic - 19
Raonic - 20

These guys are tipped as the future of the game, yet between them have yielded 1 Slam Quarter Final. If they are to be the new breed of the Mens game, how long are we willing to give them to became featured in the top 10? I will list the ages of the current Top 10 when they made it there.

Djokovic - 20
Nadal - 18
Federer - 20
Murray - 21
Ferrer - 23
Tsonga - 23
Berdych - 21
Tipsarevic - 27
Del Potro - 20
Isner - 26

Other noticeable recent Slam winners:

Roddick - 20
Hewitt - 19
Safin - 20

I will throw Dolgopolov who is 23 and Nishikori who is 22 in there. Are these guys going to be slow burners? Or can we expect some headway to be made?

When you look at the top 10 and note that Federer, Djokovic, Murray, Berdych, Safin, Roddick and Del Potro we 21 or younger when they made that initial impact. Hewitt and Nadal clearly very successful early in their careers.

How long and when do you think we will see the Harrison's, Tomic's, Raonic's, Dolgopolov's and Nishikori's in the top 10 and right on the heels of the top 3/4?

Regrettably the game will be in crisis once Federer retires and Nadal slips.

I predict 2014-16 will go down as a dark period in the Mens game dominated by brainless ball-bashing and no new names. It's because they've changed the conditions to prevent the emergence of another McEnroe or Federer, forgetting that ultimately it is that type of player who inspires the sport and allows room for the others to succeed.

There will then be a mad panic to control balls and strings to get some flair back into the game.

I thought Novak, Federer and Murray were all teenagers when they broke into the top 10?

Murray achieved a top-10 ranking by the Association of Tennis Professionals for the first time on 16 April 2007 aged 19.

I think your stats are for what age they were when they first achieved a year end top 10 ranking. At least that's what it is for Murray.

You completely forgot Goffin, I guess he will be the first one to make some serious inroads, his match against Mardy Fish would say a lot, I expect a decent Quarter final finish this time around if not better.

To add more he is playing awesome and a good run here only gonna improve his confidence level, he got the game, talent and the mindset now to make a mark, FO was a blessing in disguise after qualifying round loss

If the game stays as physical as it is now then it takes longer for players to physically reach the level needed to compete so I would add 3 years to the norm of being 19-20 to reach the first QF. So thats 23-24 for the new crop to mature.

Yep, after Nadal and Federer the game is going to be dominated by backcourt ralley-fests with little variety/creativity unless Dimitrov/Dolgo can make something happen. But their hands are tied whilst the conditions are as they are. Tsonga wont be getting any younger either.

Tomic won't amount to much I am not putting my weight behind his cause I would much more likelier expect Jerzy Janowicz to do better at the slams than "slow motion" Bernard. Useless slow clown.

I reckon both Tomic and Raonic will win a slam Maybe more.

After Murray and Novak get older then the slams will be up for grabs...and we could see many winners until a new dominant force arrives...probably after the batch of players we see now. Who is likely to win most slams in future after the current top 4? Lord knows...

My personal thought is that the guys coming behind the Djoko, Murray, Nadal, Del Po group of players will probably be seen as transitional players. I don't see any of these players Tomic, Raonic, or Harrison dominating the tour or winning a handful of slams. I think that one or two of this group may get a slam or two. But this often happens in tennis we have a group of players come up a Sampras and Agassi and then you get a few years of hewitt and kafelnikov before a Federer or Nadal surfaces. I doubt the game will produce another generation of the quality of Novak, Nadal, Andy, Berdy, Tsonga, and Del Po and the rest of the guys for a couple of years. We probably will drop back a step before new stars come up.

Berdys now a great? OMG.

I can see Del Potro being the first to break into the top 4 when the Fed/Nad decline starts to accelerate. Murray is already at his peak performance at 25 and unluckily for him Djokovic is there, Fed has two more years max as does Nadal who will be physically blown out after a long career. Therefore Murray could be going on 27/28 before Nadal and Fed are out the picture. Tsonga looks like a 'nearly man' and he proved that at the French failing to finish off Novak and at 27 isn't going to improve and injuries will impede him. My main hopes are on Dimitrov and Goffin who look the most likely to go on and develop into world class players but I can definitely see the GS's being shared around quite alot from 2015 onwards.

That's my views, i'm not a Tennis expert or anything just from what i've seen

Good post John, I don't see Dimitrov having an impact. He is not physically fit after a couple of years on tour and his one handed bakhand in my mind will get broken down by better players. I don't see any of the young guys being more than 1 or 2 slam potential at best. There is no true great in their midsts. Murray in my mind despite people down playing him is not young, I mean he is in his prime but if he can get a slam sooner or later he could go on a bit of a run. Plus it seems that the modern game favors players developing a bit later and holding on into there early 30s.

Younger players are not as composed as the veterans in this generation which is why I am expecting another strong resistance from Malisse in the next round, Julien was playing tonight like it was his last match ever, something Ferrer did not do at the RG semi finals! What is it with Nadal groupies on here anyway? You should be in hiding after your clown got slapped out by the 100+ ranked Czech dude.

I also hope the future lies with Dimitrov and Goffin...more so Goffin who I think is much stronger upstairs than Grigor and has more bite to his game despite his build (they both need to bulk up). Goffin says his best surface is HC so USO will be interesting. I think he is the one who can make up for lack of build with talent/timing, Dimitrov is simply Fed-lite.

Tsonga has a glass back so I don't see him winning more than 1 slam...Murray if not this year will struggle to win one...I still think Nadal/Novak will share them for 2012 and 2013. After that the young ones will blossom and start sharing them with Novak...maybe Raonic, maybe Delpo...no one will get a string of them and then we're into twilight zone before a new Fed or Nadal appears.

BTW I think Fed will retire at his home event Basel in 2013.

Give it a rest JM...you're just a wind up merchant and revel in doing it. You and Seifer have been like men possessed since 10pm last night.

I think the group of guys 18-22 or 23 has been real dissappointing. i don't see any single one of them of having real greatness. I mean at 19 djokovic beat the then 1, 2, and 3 players in the world on consecutive days in Canada to win the Roger's cup. Nadal went one better and won a slam at 18 or was he 17? None of these guys harrison, Tomic, Dimitrov, Raonic have that X factor in my mind. If they win slams it will be one or two at the most and I don't think most of them will lift a slam in their future. dimitrov I would be stunned if he ever won a slam.

From 2015, there will be random GS winners from the list of OP, but not a kick-ass single guy to take 2-3 GS a year. As said, we might have a few years not too interesting tennis, and then a new wave might hit us.

So see you in 2020 at the start of a new decade and new talent.

Maybe Jahu...but you never know maybe one of th young uns now will develop and surprise us. For example, Goffin has come from nowhere in the space of a month...he may ascend rapidly or go no further...sometimes it's not easy to predict. But that said he's no Federer or Nadal...we tend to see these guys making waves by 20.

We have been spoiled I guess in the last few years with Fed/Nadal smashing all records, and we're getting impatient with new talent emerging, but it will probably never happen again on this level of rivalry.

So we need to lower a little our expectations and hopes and in a few years it might be GS winners all over the place, or specialist players on grass/hc/clay who will only win on their turf.

I think some are being way too harsh about the future

There is no logical reason why Nole, Nadal, Murray and Tsonga cannot dominate the next five years. There is nothing in Murray and Nole's game in particular that relies on an instinctive returning game, to get worn down - great returners like Agassi and Connors thrived late in their career, because it's a mind-set (hence why Rafa lost last night - strangely for him he convinced himself that the guy's serve was unplayable)

Then we get a couple of newcomers, not heard of, coming through

I'm glad that the penny is dropping and people realise that the current crop just are not that good. Raoninc can look Top 5 for a couple of early rounds in a Masters - but ask him to to do this for at least four rounds of a Slam and he's found wanting

Murray hasn't dominated anything. He has no slams and is pushing on into tail end of his career.

Well Seifer we see players like Verdasco, Ferrer, and Murray having success some of the best success of their career into their late 20s and even beyond. Murray looks like he is pretty good shape and has played a busy schedule with few serious injuries so I don't see why he would be able to successful and have a window of a few years.

Banbro I don't look at Tsonga as a player that can dominate. He isn't consistent enough and in my mind is a little to big bodied and heavy for an 80 match schedule. Plus his flamboyant style is prone to breakdown in big matches and big points in big matches. Nadal also is a bit perplexing in that he hasn't played that well off of clay really since the summer of 2010. I mean he is a dominant force but he is suffering the longest slump in his career without a non-clay title.