Who Will Win the USO?

I know it's early and I know Cinci isn't finished either but the temptation to put this question up is too great after Nadal's departure!

Of course even before Nadal's departure, it was looking good for Fed because he wouldn't have to face Djokovic in yet another USO semi-final but there was still the very likely possibility that he would face Nadal, who, even though he has never played @ the USO against him, is one of the few players who could beat him @ the grand slams consistently (not true of Murray or Delpo at this point).

Nadal's departure opens up the possibility that Murray could finally win a slam but I'm still unsure: Murray wasn't going to have to play Nadal anyway (until the final at least) because Nadal was #3 and Murray #4. Murray will still need to play Djokovic and Federer in back to back matches to win, something he did @ the Olympics (with the home crowd behind him) but something he has to do over 5 sets in both matches, not just one and no assurance that Fed will have a long match either (like @ the Olympics semi).

Overall, I think things are looking best for Fed, a little better for Murray and not much change for Djokovic. I still think Djokovic is the favourite, but a little less of a favourite then before this announcement. Who gets Murray will be the most important issue prior to the USO starting. Who wins Cinci, may or may not be significant, if it's Djokovic, will he make it a clean sweep of the North American hard court swing by taking the USO, or will the honours be split between Federer, Djokovic and Murray? The question is, who will win the big one, the USO?

You know who I voted for lucius. It depends a lot now with Nadal out who ends up getting murray in the semi. I think there is no fluke in the fact that Novak has won the last 3 straight hardcourt slams and the last two hardcourt masters. I think by the USO he will find his hardcourt legs and form.

I'd agree, Djokovic is formidable on hard courts although compared to the Aussie Open, Fed and Djokovic are more evenly poised @ the USO. Fed's had match points in the last 2 years running they've played each other -it doesn't get any closer than that. It would be the ultimate show down if they meet in the final and I believe Fed would be able to pull out the unexpected win just like no one really rated Fed before the semi with Djokovic @ Wimbledon.

Murray is more of a danger to Djokovic than Federer, so it will be interesting to see who gets him. If it's Djokovic who does, I'd rate his chances of winning the USO as the same as Fed's.

Has to be a breakthrough for the next in line to the big 3.

Allez JO.

Josiah Maiestas wrote:Has to be a breakthrough for the next in line to the big 3.

Allez JO.

Why is that JM, I haven't seen anything from the second tier or young guys for me to think that the topic guys are going to let it slip from their grasp at the USO.

luciusmann wrote:I'd agree, Djokovic is formidable on hard courts although compared to the Aussie Open, Fed and Djokovic are more evenly poised @ the USO. Fed's had match points in the last 2 years running they've played each other -it doesn't get any closer than that. It would be the ultimate show down if they meet in the final and I believe Fed would be able to pull out the unexpected win just like no one really rated Fed before the semi with Djokovic @ Wimbledon.

Murray is more of a danger to Djokovic than Federer, so it will be interesting to see who gets him. If it's Djokovic who does, I'd rate his chances of winning the USO as the same as Fed's.

Who didn't rate Fed, I rated him quite highly and thought it was a 50/50 match or Novak as a slight favorite at best, I think that point is a bit of revisionist history that no one rated fed that much going into the semi, I think everyone knew for djokovic to win it would take a mammoth effort on center court especially when the match went indoors. And no one is taking his chances lightly now either at the USO. Lets see Novak is not in the best form but I believe that in his best form he is right now the best player in the world on an outdoor hardcourt.

If I was a bookie it would be Novak, Fed, Murray. In that order in terms of likelihood. But man it's close between the 3 of them.

Federer has good form from the summer, Murray will be absolutely floating on self belief and confidence after his summer, and come the business end of the slam Novak will be on song.

I'd say Novak if I had to choose. But it's so close. Cant wait.

There is a compelling argument to be made for all the top three guys - I'm going to sit on the fence a little longer until I see the draw

socal1976

I would just like to say I really rate your posts. I don't agree with all the draw fixing stuff but apart from that I think despite your obvious favourite (nothing wrong with that) you come across as balanced and prepared to give credit to players who are not your favourite. This does make me listen more to what you have to say even if I don't always agree.

time please

"top three guys"? Oh well...

Sorry HE, but in terms of the US open there is a clear 'top 3 guys'.

You may not like it, but those 3 are by miles the most likely winners.

socal1976 wrote:
Who didn't rate Fed, I rated him quite highly and thought it was a 50/50 match or Novak as a slight favorite at best, I think that point is a bit of revisionist history that no one rated fed that much going into the semi, I think everyone knew for djokovic to win it would take a mammoth effort on center court especially when the match went indoors. And no one is taking his chances lightly now either at the USO. Lets see Novak is not in the best form but I believe that in his best form he is right now the best player in the world on an outdoor hardcourt.

Have you lost your marbles or are conveniently down playing that nearly everyone had Djokovic as favourite in that match? the BBC news website (one of the most visited news websites in the world) asked around 10 pundits who they thought would win and 8/10 plumbed for Djokovic. Yes, 8/10, that's not me but tennis media pundits, who I would think probably know a bit more than most people. There's no 'revisionist' history going on from me or anyone else who said Djokovic was considered big favourite in that match.

No one rated Fed's chances as 50/50 in that match, in fact I plumbed with Djokovic and said a big unknown was whether the surface being grass would make a difference, which, in the end, it did. You seem to forget that much of the talk prior to the match was how many sets Djokovic would win by, not if Federer would win. Djokovic hadn't just beaten Federer twice already in 2012, he'd beaten Federer every time since the French Open win, over a year earlier. Upto that point it was 2-0 H2H for 2012 to Djokovic and 4-1 to Djokovic in 2011. Even you said at the time you couldn't see beyond Djokovic in '4 routine sets', those were you're exact words. If there's any revisionist history going on here socal, it's from you, not me. Don't try pretending you rated Federer when you didn't in that match. I remember setting up a thread talking about Fed's chance and you consistently saying you couldn't see circumstances that Fed would win!

hawkeye wrote:time please

"top three guys"? Oh well...

Well obviously I mean the top three seeds at USO 2012 - I'm being lazy and didn't want to type individual names at this time of night.

But you knew that, right?

lazy? Oh well...