Marcellus Wiley is a mad man

ESPN have got ex-Jaguar Marcellus Wiley to pick who he thinks will make the playoffs this coming season, this might be a moment of madness or Colin Cowherd shock tactics but I think I'd be a better NFL analyst for ESPN than this guy.

Wiley's picks

AFC

Patriots
Ravens
Texans - his pick for the AFC reps in the Super Bowl
Bengals
Chargers - will make it because they stepped up their play (when? They haven't done anything to suggest they've improved)
Raiders - will rely on Carson Palmer and Darren McFadden to carry them through. (Never mind their poor defense and lack of depth at WR)

Reasons for other teams missing out: the Jets have too much QB drama (didn't the Broncos?), the Titans have Locker (why hate on my man Jake), the Steelers have two rookie O linemen (worked well in 2010), the Broncos have a style change from rushing to passing (does he know who is taking centre at Mile High this year?).

NFC

Packers
49ers - his pick to represent in New Orleans
Lions - too many weapons, just Stafford and Calvin.
Bears
Panthers - the fact that the Packers, Bears and Lions will all make it in means it'll be tougher for Atlanta and New Orleans
Eagles - just because somebody has to win the division

Reasons for other teams missing out: the Giants have lost key players (Manningham, Ballard and Jacobs were bit part), Saints offseason troubles (I know it doesn't mean much but has he seen their preseason film?), the Falcons are changing identity on offence (umm, no they're not).

These videos made me quite angry that somebody who seems like he just closed his eyes and said these have had identity changes.

AFC - https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=5grBJt29TMo
NFC - https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=3BkE4WJ20I4

My picks

AFC

Patriots
Ravens - AFC champions
Bengals
Chiefs
Texans
Broncos or Bills

NFC

Packers
49ers
Giants
Saints
Bears - NFC Champions
Panthers or Lions

Not mad at all. Some choices IMO completely miss the mark, others are bang on. There's also things he predicts that I agree with but for different reasons.

Firstly, completely agree with his SB picks
Secondly, AFC West is a crap shoot IMO, that division is wide open (and will not be very good), so there's no reason why the Chargers shouldn't win it... but there's no way in hell that two teams from that division get in the playoffs.
Thirdly, Broncos IMO will miss out because I don't think Manning will finish the season.
Fourthly, Locker did not look great in the Bucs PS game, but if he hits form early in the season then he could put them in WC contention. Steelers and Bengals IMO are quite close together. IMO, it's between the Steelers, Bengals & Bills for the wildcard, with the Titans making a potential push if Locker finds form.
Fifthly, so far Stafford staying healthy for a whole season has been the exception, not the rule. Add in the Madden curse (which obviously isn't real, but IMO is psychosomatically detrimental to the cover athlete) and IMO Lions will disappoint.
Sixthly, preseason film doesn't count for much IMO, yeah Saints will be hot early on in the season but once they lose a game that counts, doubt and uncertainty will start to creep in - will they be hold it together and avoid getting caught in a tailspin?
Seventhly, the Falcons are changing their offensive identity, and what's worse, it's not by choice but by necessity. Their O-line has some pretty substantial holes IMO at RG and LT, and Michael Turner is 31. Without question, the engine of their offense has been Turner, who IIRC has had the most carries of any RB over the past two seasons (and IIRC, no team ran more on first and second down than the Falcons). They will have to get away from the running game and switch to being a pass-heavy offense, something that they really haven't been over the past few years - definitely a change in offensive identity (the fact that they have a brand new offensive co-ordinator is a huge part of that too, as Mike Smith is a defensive HC so there's no real schematic carryover).
Eighthly, the NFC South will be weak this year, and despite the fact that I am predicting a significant slump for Cam, with a healthy D and a fearsome triple-headed rushing attack, Panthers are a solid pick to win the div IMO.
Ninth, the Giants have lost some key players, mostly through injury - Shaun Rogers almost certainly out for the year, a few other DTs banged up making their depth in the middle soft. The most important player IMO who they lost in FA was Aaron Ross, because with also looking to miss most if not all the season, they don't have much at corner at all. They have fearsome pass rush, but if teams can run up their soft gut, or throw quick three-step slants and hitches (with Prince Amukamara their best CB), their defense will be in a lot of trouble IMO.

So, two teams out of the AFC West is way of base, and I can't get on board with the Lions. Disagree on Titans & Steelers. Broncos I agree but for different reasons. That aside, I can't really take issue with most of his other predictions.