Wales v Australia, 1/12/12, k/o 14:30. DISCUSSION/MATCH THREAD, PREDICTIONS POLL & TEAMS

[Guest]

First topic message reminder :

So, on the back of Wales's 10-33 defeat to New Zealand, and Australia's 19-22 victory over Italy, we look towards the final Autumn fixture for both teams.

Having played each other five times in the last twelve months, with the three Tests in the Summer ending 27-19, 25-23, and 20-19, this was, prior to the Autumn, the SANZAR scalp Wales must have felt they could realistically take on home soil.

How important is it for Wales to win? Must they win to hold onto their 'top-8' status, to try and avoid either England or Ireland, and equally so Argentina and Samoa, in their World Cup group? Or do they need to win to halt the decline since the Grand Slam success and the competitiveness of the Australia tour in the Summer? Do they need to win to have any hope of defending their 6 Nations crown? What effect does regional form have upon the way the players performed this Autumn? Can they beat Australia, and how? Should we look outside the current squad, especially in certain positions in the pack, due to injury and non-released players? If so, who do we bring in?




It has not gone to plan for Wales. Sitting in 4th spot on the iRB rankings following the Grand Slam success, they were in 6th place prior to the Autumn series and attempting to regain the coveted 4th to ensure a 'favourable' draw for the World Cup. However, they now sit tentatively in 7th position, only just ahead of Argentina and Samoa, both victorious at the Millennium Stadium, and a defeat to the Wallabies will mean they will have fallen from 4th to 9th following 7 straight Test defeats, and they will be in the third 'tier' for the World Cup seedings. This means they would face one of the first tier (New Zealand, South Africa, Australia, France) and one of the second tier (England, Ireland, Samoa, Argentina) in their group if they lose next Saturday.

This cannot be the position Wales expected to be in three weeks ago, yet having been deservedly beaten in the first two fixtures due to playing a pedestrian, 'territorially-minded' game-plan, they can have little complaint. It was only until the last half hour of the NZ game that Wales displayed any acceptance that their tactics were not conducive to success; you cannot score tries without the ball, and against the best teams you will be slaughtered if you kick down their throats. With New Zealand able to take it down a notch or two around the 50 minute mark, having being invited onto the ball, which they duly did, scoring 33 unanswered points, Wales finally played the running rugby they ought to be famed for, but it was too little too late.

Aside from the tactical noose that is evidently not working, or indeed not being implemented successfully and without error so that Wales can play the low-risk strategy Gatland favours, selection has been a major issue. For the Argentina game, with Ryan Jones and Dan Lydiate injured,
Josh Turnbull started at 6, with his club captain McCusker the back row cover on the bench. Both of these were selected ahead of their Scarlets teammate Aaron Shingler, who was playing exceptionally better rugby at regional level and, when called upon against New Zealand, performed admirably and effectively, something that cannot be said for Turnbull and McCusker. Mike Phillips, although excellent defensively, and a danger when sniping at close quarters, as he did yesterday, is woefully slow to the breakdown, especially when a linebreak is made, something in itself that is too infrequent for Wales. Tavis Knoyle is marginally better, although he himself, like the admission of Shingler, is arguably no longer the strongest scrum half for his region, with Gareth Davies in fine form. With Richie Rees, perhaps the best Welsh distributor after Dwayne Peel, no longer in Gatland's plans, and Rhys Webb ignored, there is decidedly little to choose from. Poor service, whoever it comes from, has been used poorly by Priestland, subject to ironic cheering from the crowd when successfully kicking to touch prior to Wales's first try against NZ and when replaced by James Hook. Priestland has been kicking almost persistently to the detriment of the team, but with the constant repetition of the mantra about 'territory' and "playing in the right areas" ('Re-boot the attack' section), the coaches must be pleased with his decision making, his only fault his execution. With James Hook having played 13 minutes all Series, and unavailable for the Australia game, and the extent of Dan Biggar's injury unknown at present, Priestland is likely to remain in the 10 shirt. Liam Williams performed admirably when he stepped up for George North, as did Scott Andrews for the injured Aaron Jarvis. The latter will likely start in Jarvis's absence, but with a reliance of Halfpenny's boot, Liam Williams will, in all probability, miss out. With French-based players (the excellent Charteris, Phillips, and the somewhat out of form Gethin Jenkins) missing out on selection due to the game falling outside the iRB window, and possibly English-based players too, the squad may be weakened somewhat. With AWJ unavailable, Bradley Davies floored, and uncertainty over Ian Evans, we are facing something of a second row crisis. However, for me, the best 15 we could produce, based on who is in the squad, is as follows. Feel free to add your own:

1. Paul James
2. Ken Owens
3. Scott Andrews
4. Luke Charteris
5. Ian Evans
6. Aaron Shingler
7. Sam Warburton
8. Toby Faletau
9. Tavis Knoyle
10. Dan Biggar
11. George North
12. Scott Williams
13. Jonathan Davies
14. Alex Cuthbert
15. Leigh Halfpenny

16. Matthew Rees
17. Ryan Bevington
18. Samson Lee
19. Ryan Jones
20. Justin Tipuric
21. Lloyd Williams
22. Rhys Priestland
23. Liam Williams

*If both starting second rows are unavailable, we are in something of a crisis. We would likely be forced to start with Ryan Jones at lock, and possibly Lou Reed too, with Aaron Shingler covering the position, and someone else coming in to fill a replacement position. But I do not know who.

This is far from the 15 I think is the 'best', but it is the best of what I can make with who is in the squad.

So on to Australia. I do not believe that they are a confident team, nowhere near the free-flowing, off the cuff team of two years ago, with key players such as David Pocock struggling (though the excellent Michael Hooper has stepped up in his absence) and James Horwill suffering with injury. At the end of a long tour, Wales have to see them as beatable. Yet, on the back the tightest of wins against Italy, they will surely be fully prepared, and any expectations of catching them dreaming of the sunny shores of home will most probably be misplaced, and punished by the men in gold. Berrick Barnes is a key man, who will punish Wales on the scoreboard in a manner Priestland chose not to in the first half against New Zealand; any mistakes will be chipped away 3 by 3, and if we kick to the Wallabies three quarters, they have the running ability to cut us to shreds. Yet the size of our midfield ought to be an asset, and if we keep the ball in hand, Scott Williams and Jon Davies are capable of both creating and scoring tries. I feel their selection over the injury prone Jamie Roberts, who has been ineffective, and needs time away from international rugby to regain form and develop his game from simply being a human wrecking ball, is imperative to Wales playing a quicker game, less reliant on their formulaic and obvious ball carriers, something Samoa said they were all too aware of. The England-Australia game was tight, but winnable for England, a team who I think are about on a par with Wales, both playing their own brand of tactically poor rugby that does their talented players a disservice (no Mike Phillips pun intended). In this sense, Wales can and should win, regardless of their form in the previous 3 games. It's imperative for World Cup rankings, but perhaps more importantly, to stop the slide and finally get the win, and psychological boon that comes with it, that they ought to have had in the Summer, but for some silly mistakes.

Wales team to face Australia:
15. Leigh Halfpenny
14. Alex Cuthbert
13. Jonathan Davies
12. Jamie Roberts
11. Liam Williams
10. Rhys Priestland
9. Mike Phillips

1. Gethin Jenkins
2. Matthew Rees
3. Scott Andrews
4. Luke Charteris
5. Ian Evans
6. Aaron Shingler
7. Sam Warburton (capt)
8. Toby Faletau.

Bench:
16. Ken Owens
17 Ryan Bevington
18. Samson Lee
19. Ryan Jones
20. Justin Tipuric
21. Tavis Knoyle
22. Dan Biggar
23. Scott Williams

Australia team to face Wales:

15. Berrick Barnes
14. Nick Cummins
13. Adam Ashley-Cooper
12. Ben Tapuai
11. Drew Mitchell
10. Kurtley Beale
9. Nick Phipps

1. Benn Robinson
2. Tatafu Polota Nau
3. Ben Alexander
4. Kane Douglas
5. Nathan Sharpe (capt)
6. Scott Higginbotham
7. David Pocock
8.Wycliff Palu

Bench:
16. Stephen Moore
17. James Slipper
18. Sekope Kepu
19. Dave Dennis
20. Michael Hooper
21. Brendan McKibbin
22. Mike Harris
23. Digby Ioane.

[Morgannwg]

Wrong decision there. Warbs was on his feet!

[Morgannwg]

What's Barnes thinking with these penalties at the ruck? We've been penalised 3 times and none of them were even penalty offences.

[Morgannwg]

10 minutes of superb attacking rugby by Wales but excellent defence by Aus, Palu and Beale.

[Guest]

Barnes is EFING US AT EVERY BREAK DOWN

[Guest]

Barnes you tool wtf

[Guest]

No Aussie player has let a Welsh player go in the tackle before they have a go at the ball, Barnes thinks its ok,
Wales do the exact same but we get the whistle

[Morgannwg]

Now that was a good turnover by Robinson, the assistant tackler. Warbs (or the assistant tackler, can't remember who) was pinned for the exact same thing.

[Morgannwg]

In fairness to Barnes, he's becoming more consistent.

[Guest]

Aus knockon but allowed player ahead to pick up!!!

[Artful_Dodger]

Berrick Barnes is having a shocker, everything he does goes wrong.

[flyhalffactory]

Good afternoon Wales n Oz mates

(and anyone else who is watching)

[Morgannwg]

Berrick Barnes is having a shocker, everything he does goes wrong.

Berrick or Wayne?

Berrick was Aus most consistent player, up to now.

[Shifty]

Will someone please hack off priestlands leg before he kicks the ball away again

[ALPanorak]

How has Priestland been today? Surely an improvement on last week?

[Artful_Dodger]

Ohhhh Wales....Wales Wales Wales, what have you done.

[Pal Joey]

Can't believe they kicked it again with about 90 secs left!

Beale scores. Out of jail again.

Commiserations Wales fans

[Morgannwg]

Can't believe that. Lazy defence in the dying seconds and the game is over.

[wales606]

For Frak sake. Ever. Single. Time

[Cardiff Taffy]

we deserve what we get. terrible.

[Shifty]

Lost it, why the hell didnt the player with the black scrum cap drift out there and cover the space he run towards the ball...

He just cost us a win against Australia.

Totally gutted

[Hookisms and Hyperbole]

Oh Wales You really are in bad form. On another, this is worst Australian team I have seen in my lifetime. No tight five, no half backs and no fullback.

[TJ1]

What cost the game was not controlling the ball after the lineout in the corner. That ball should have stayed there

[Dave.]

Heartbreaker for you guys!

[Artful_Dodger]

Serious concern for Halfpenny here.

[wales606]

If we had kept 1 out of 4 of the Locks that started in the squad we would have won that game.

Really horrible. I hate Australia now after the last 3 games against them

[Cardiff Taffy]

here's hoping we France and Ireland on monday's draw...

[Coleman]

I thought Lou Reed had a great game. Hope Leigh is alright, they're not moving him. I can't take this any more. It's heart breaking.

[Morgannwg]

I don't pay to watch this shyte over and over again. Unless it's completely turned around by that first 6 Nations game (which it won't be with Howler leading the way) then I won't be following them.

[Artful_Dodger]

If we had kept 1 out of 4 of the Locks that started in the squad we would have won that game.

Really horrible. I hate Australia now after the last 3 games against them

I thought Rees also threw horrendously in the lineout though.

[Hookisms and Hyperbole]

Mocking Wales aside for being outside the top 8 (which I won't), I'd hate to get them in Ireland's World Cup draw. I think Gatland was right during the week, its the top 4 that really matter.

[offload]

Poor ball control again costs the game. I know it's a cliche, but they can't score if you don't give them the ball. So why keep kicking it away?

[wales606]

[quote="Artful_Dodger"]

If we had kept 1 out of 4 of the Locks that started in the squad we would have won that game.

Really horrible. I hate Australia now after the last 3 games against them

I thought Rees also threw horrendously in the lineout though.[/quote

We had nobody calling the lineout for most of the game

[Coleman]

The lineout has been awful. Rees' throwing has been poor. How does this keep happening to us?

[Dave.]

Hope Halfpenny will be ok. That didn't look nice.

[ALPanorak]

Hope Halfpenny will be ok. That didn't look nice.

Indeed. Hopefully it was just precautionary. Shout out to Nathan Sharpe, always been a reliably consistent competitor

[glamorganalun]

Please can shoot Preistland again missed touch how many times do we miss out, why did these so called coaches can't see this guy is flakey, is a shame there were some very good performances but the tactics are so poor.

[kiakahaaotearoa]

If we had kept 1 out of 4 of the Locks that started in the squad we would have won that game.

Really horrible. I hate Australia now after the last 3 games against them

Good Lord. It's disappointing losing, especially when you know you had enough to win, but that comment isn't necessary. Likewise Morgan if you give up on your boys then you're just a fairweather supporter. It's when your boys have their backs against the wall when they need you the most. They came off a disappointing game last week and pushed the Wallabies all the way today. So you didn't get the right result. Suck it up and take it on the chin. And go in to the next game behind your team. Disappointing to read comments like that.

[offload]

Have to say too, that's the worst Aussie team I've ever seen and probably ever will. Still, Wales can't win.

Can we now please stop talking about Wales as anything other than a very, very average side.

[ospreysboyo]

They should be absolutely ashamed of themselves, throwing it away again. Australi didnt deserve this at all, and there needs to be a serious shake up. 9th in the world just 9 months after a grandslam. Has any other team had such a fall from grace??? What is it with those players??? I think mentality is a poor excuse, they are professional sportsmen ffs. The funny thing is, even when we were on Aus's line with an attacking lineout with 2 mins to go, I stll knew they would lose, how many other nations supporters can say they feel that way with their team?? Something is seriously amiss in Welsh rugby.

[Guest]

Gutted for Wales loss against a poor Australia. Thought Preistland actually had one of his better games. The loss not down to him. Line-out was a mare.
Farewell to Nathan Sharpe

[Morgannwg]

If we had kept 1 out of 4 of the Locks that started in the squad we would have won that game.

Really horrible. I hate Australia now after the last 3 games against them

Good Lord. It's disappointing losing, especially when you know you had enough to win, but that comment isn't necessary. Likewise Morgan if you give up on your boys then you're just a fairweather supporter. It's when your boys have their backs against the wall when they need you the most. They came off a disappointing game last week and pushed the Wallabies all the way today. So you didn't get the right result. Suck it up and take it on the chin. And go in to the next game behind your team. Disappointing to read comments like that.

Yeah you are right I suppose. I've seen this before and still supported them. But again it's fundamental errors at the top that are ruining the game and they do it every time. I'd love it if the Union could be run by Kiwi's.

In fairness to what Wales606 is saying, we have lost 3/4 second rows (did Charteris go off injured?). Rees was okay in the lineout throwing regard. So that's a high number of key players who won't be going back to their clubs for a while, some the whole season. The year is going to end on a serious negative I think.

I'd say Australia won because of their intelligence and never say die attitude. Our boys weren't smart enough to close the game out.

[kiakahaaotearoa]

That doesn't justify saying you hate Australia just because they've beaten you so many times. It's not their fault! Winning can often be from the smallest of margins. Australia have used their uncanny ability to close out games they were up against. Wales can learn from that. Every game is a learning experience if you look at it in that way. Losing consistently is very difficult to take and it's easy to give in to despair. Lord knows I have enough experience with that and the Black Caps cricket team! But Wales are not as bad as many of you are claiming them to be. The fundamentals are there. Just the execution and the top three inches which is probably the most important part.

A new year next year and the pressure off to a large extent. England showed the way today that it is possible to reverse form and if your head is in the right place the body follows. Chins up. You have to believe. Never give up. Kia kaha.

[bedfordwelsh]

[quote="Morgannwg"][quote="kiakahaaotearoa"][quote="wales606"]If we had kept 1 out of 4 of the Locks that started in the squad we would have won that game.

Rubbish absolute rubbish, we have been naive and poor in our tactics all season and until we learn to keep the ball in hand and don't kick aimlessly down the oppositions throat especially in the last minute we are were we belong to be 9th.

Tell me why we didn't just run the clock down pick n drive etc, tell me hy were we constantly turned over or got isolated. None of those problems would have eased with the likes of AWJ Evans or Davies on the pitch this afternoon.

As soon as we got into the last 5 minutes I had a sickening feeling that they would win and we would fail to close yet another game out.

[majesticimperialman]

What is the score please?

[wales606]

That doesn't justify saying you hate Australia just because they've beaten you so many times. It's not their fault! Winning can often be from the smallest of margins. Australia have used their uncanny ability to close out games they were up against. Wales can learn from that. Every game is a learning experience if you look at it in that way. Losing consistently is very difficult to take and it's easy to give in to despair. Lord knows I have enough experience with that and the Black Caps cricket team! But Wales are not as bad as many of you are claiming them to be. The fundamentals are there. Just the execution and the top three inches which is probably the most important part.

A new year next year and the pressure off to a large extent. England showed the way today that it is possible to reverse form and if your head is in the right place the body follows. Chins up. You have to believe. Never give up. Kia kaha.

Meant to say hate PLAYING Australia. They have taken the win in the last minutes 3 times in a row and my heart can't take it.

[George Carlin]

Feic me. Completely gutted for my Welsh brethren.

[kiakahaaotearoa]

Fair enough mate.

It's got to be tough losing in that fashion. But I tell you what'd be worse: losing them to by large margins. The fact you're making these mistakes and letting these victories slip through your hands is frustrating and disappointing but also encouraging in that you are capable of winning. Just look to take out the positives and look to improve on the negatives.

[bedfordwelsh]

Kia,

But we have been here many more times than just once and WE NEVER LEARN from it and utnil we do we always only be second best nothing more.

[Ospreydragon]

I expected Aus to win by 1- 5 before the match, but when Priestland made that touch kick I thought Wales would go on to win it. Ok, it was a forward pass for their winning try, but only Wales could fight tooth and nail to snatch defeat from the jaws of victory. It's happened too many times and it shows a lack of game management in the side. Well done Aus, but Wales were the better and more inventive side.

I really wonder how things will go after the Lions tour. It would be better if very few Welsh players went on the Lions tour, because I fear a Gatlandgate to follow the Henrygate of the 2001 Lions tour.

The one positive for Wales is that many players have been injured and Wales could have a much stronger squad of players to choose from in the 6N. But it was an opportunity lost today, although both teams were not at full strength.

[Morgannwg]

Halfpenny has been taken to hospital, the situation is unknown at the moment. Shame, as he's one Wales player who has a spot in the Lions team.

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